1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fluctuated and rose this week. As of December 10, the spot nickel price was 147166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.47% from 149366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 14.85% from the beginning of the week and 18.5% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have increased by 4 and decreased by 8, with more or less recent declines.

Macro factors: on December 6, the people’s Bank of China announced that the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions would be reduced by 0.5 percentage points from December 15 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio). After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions would be 8.4%.

Nickel industry chain

Supply: the Philippines, the main source of nickel ore, has entered the rainy season, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory has entered the seasonal destocking. The output of electrolytic nickel itself remained basically stable, but due to the continuous closure of the import window and the limited import volume, the total supply was slightly tight.

Downstream: in November, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.585 million and 2.522 million respectively, of which the actual sales volume was better than the forecast at the beginning of the month. In terms of growth rate changes, production and sales increased by 10.9% and 8.1% month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% and 9.1% respectively. In December, the production of 300 series stainless steel is planned to be reduced by about 100000 tons, which may have a certain impact on nickel consumption.

To sum up: China implements a more loose monetary policy to support metal prices. Nickel supply is tight, and the demand for new energy in the downstream is good, but the consumption of stainless steel in the downstream is weak. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate widely.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to be weak and the decline deepened. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3967.50 yuan / ton on December 5 and 3707.50 yuan / ton on December 10. The decline rate during the week was 6.55%, 10.18% lower than that on December 1.

As of December 10, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region 4050 yuan / ton

Hebei region 3990 yuan / ton

Henan region 3650-3690 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to decline, the prices in the main production areas of Henan mostly fell to 3700 yuan / ton, and Hebei and Shandong also followed the decline. At the beginning of the week, although the dimethyl ether Market weakened, it was relatively strong. The price of liquefied gas market of related products rose with the rise of international crude oil, which brought some support to the dimethyl ether Market. In the late part of the week, the market was not well supported, the decline of dimethyl ether deepened, the wide decline of raw methanol and the weakness of civil gas all brought bad news to the market, the market demand still did not improve significantly, the downstream resisted high prices, had a cautious attitude, had general enthusiasm for entering the market, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market was poor.

This week’s weak decline in the methanol market is mainly due to the weakening of downstream demand for MTO maintenance and formaldehyde in Ningbo Fude, the existence of warehouse discharge demand of upstream enterprises, and different mentality of traders. The methanol market fell under the background of de stocking, and the market atmosphere was depressed. The overall mood in the middle and lower reaches is poor. In addition to the rigid demand, the market is difficult to breed the demand for hoarding goods, which obviously suppresses the price.

At present, the dimethyl ether Market is not favorable, the cost of methanol and related products, civil gas are both weak, and the market demand has not increased significantly. The main production areas in Henan lead the decline, and the range is deepened. Shandong and Hebei follow the decline. It is expected that the weakness of the dimethyl ether market will be difficult to change in the short term, or continue to be the main producer.

In early December, the domestic acetone market continued the trend of last month and continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, taking the market offer in East China as an example, the offer in East China market was 5550 yuan / ton on December 1 and 5300 yuan / ton on December 13. The overall decline in East China market was dominated in the first ten days, and the overall decline in East China market was 5.45%. In the national market, as of December 13, the offer in East China reached 5300 yuan / ton, and the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas was 5400 yuan / ton, The offer in South China is 5450 yuan / ton.

On the raw material side, crude oil rebounded broadly during the week, and related commodities rose. The price of crude oil and outer disk pure benzene rose, and the cost side gave positive support; The price of styrene rose, the downstream benefited, and the price of pure benzene rose. However, the port inventory of pure benzene continued to increase, and there were still ships arriving at the port in the later stage, which suppressed the market mentality and limited the increase in the week. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation or the impact on the pure benzene related industrial chain in Zhenhai, Ningbo, the market mentality turned cautious. This week, the prices of some enterprises in Sinopec North China increased by 250 yuan / ton, while the prices in other regions remained stable at 6450 yuan / ton.

According to the price chart of business society, Propylene this week (Shandong) the price rose slightly at the beginning of the week, but the rise was weak, and the price began to fall again. As of Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong market was 7500-7550 yuan / ton. This week, it was repaired after the sharp decline of upstream oil price, which provided support for the rise of propylene. However, the main downstream polypropylene market continued to fluctuate and weaken, the supply of propylene market was sufficient, and the downstream demand support was insufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand remained, leading to the market decline The main tone of the field is down.

From the supply side, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises has maintained a stable trend.

market region Enterprise name Capacity (phenol / acetone) Proportion Device dynamics

North China Beijing yanshan petrochemical 16/10 15.9% 100%

Tianjin Zhongsha Tianjin 22/13 100%

Shandong region doy Lihua yiweiyuan 22/13 9.1% 100%

Northeast China Heilongjiang Blue Star Harbin 9.5/5.5 7.6% 90%

Jilin Jilin Petrochemical 9/5 100%

East China Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical 15/9 47.9% 100%

Ningbo Taihua 30/18 50% of construction starts within the month

Jiangsu Shiyou (Yangzhou) 20/12 Shutdown for maintenance from December 6 to 12

Jiangsu Changshu Changchun 30/18

Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui 25/15 100%

Shanghai Cissa (Shanghai) 25/15 The construction started at 90%

South China Guangdong Huizhou Zhongxin 18/12 19.5%

Guangdong CNOOC shell 22/13 70% operation

From the perspective of business society, the domestic acetone market continued to decline in early December. The maintenance of Yangzhou Shiyou plant was completed, and the source of imported goods successively arrived for replenishment. The supply side was relatively sufficient, but it was difficult to make great improvement on the demand side. It was just needed to purchase. The business agency expects the acetone market to fluctuate in December.

last week (12.6-10), the domestic ethyl acetate market continued to decline, with a significant decline. According to the monitoring of the business society, the weekly decline of ethyl acetate was 2.16%, mainly due to the fact that the price of raw material acetic acid had not stopped falling, which dragged down the downstream ethyl acetate Market. In addition, the quotation of major domestic manufacturers was lowered again within the week, and the starting price of Shandong large factory was lowered, resulting in a low transaction. The weekend price was in the area of 8800-9100 yuan / ton Room.

First, in terms of cost, domestic acetic acid continued to decline last week, with a decline of 1.44%. During the week, the quotation fell first and then stabilized, the downstream demand continued to be weak, the market was dominated by just buying, the transaction of new orders in the market was insufficient, the acetic acid manufacturers negotiated shipment, and the transaction focus shifted downward. Most domestic acetic acid plants operated normally, and the devices of individual enterprises in East China were overhauled. However, the enterprise’s early inventory accumulated, the overall supply of goods in the market was still sufficient, and the operator’s mentality remained wait-and-see.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that the price of acetic acid drives the price of downstream ethyl ester down, and the decline of acetic acid is strong.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the supply pressure of ethyl acetate has increased, and the inventory of large domestic factories is still high. In order to reduce the pressure, the main large factories have repeatedly reduced their prices. The range is 200-400 yuan / ton. Social inventory pressure is also high, mainly due to the weak downstream demand caused by the seasonal off-season.

On the demand side, the domestic downstream demand for acetic acid was relatively weak last week, and some downstream industries entered the traditional off-season. The superposition of environmental protection policies affected some downstream purchase demand. Ethyl acetate only maintained the just needed shipment, and the delivery speed of the manufacturer further slowed down.

In the future, ethyl acetate analysts of business society believe that it is difficult to improve the cost in the short term. The low price of acetic acid will continue to drag down the driving force of the strength of ethyl acetate downstream. Especially affected by the off-season demand, the short-term short-term pattern of supply and demand remains unchanged. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate may not reach the bottom.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3183 yuan / ton on December 6 and 3166 yuan / ton on December 10. The price of monoammonium phosphate fell by 0.52% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3600 yuan / ton on December 6 and 3600 yuan / ton on December 10. The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of monoammonium phosphate continued to fall this week. The decline of monoammonium phosphate market this week is difficult to change, the market is still depressed, and most enterprises cut prices. Although the price of raw materials has always been strong, the downstream demand for monoammonium is weak, and the trading volume is difficult to improve. At present, the market mentality is unstable, more single discussion, and the transaction focus is explored again. At present, the factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in China is 3000-3350 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

The price of diammonium phosphate continued to be stable this week. On Tuesday, the ammonium market was mainly stable, and the market was weak. The price of raw materials is high and the cost is strongly supported. At present, diammonium is in the off-season, and the terminal demand is poor. The market trend at home and abroad is weak, mainly taking goods on demand, and the export orders are reduced. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3450-3600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

Raw phosphorus ore, the domestic market as a whole rose slightly this week. Supported by the tight supply side, the domestic phosphorus ore market can be described as “not light in the off-season”. The market price of medium and high-end phosphorus ore in the field has always maintained a high and firm quotation, and the overall transaction in the market is expected to continue to move closer to the high end. In addition, the overall performance of downstream yellow phosphorus has gradually warmed up, giving phosphorus ore some positive support.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that the current ammonium phosphate Market is weak and the downstream is mainly on-demand procurement. Due to the high support of raw materials, the price of Monoammonium has limited room to fall, and diammonium is waiting for improvement on the demand side. It is expected that monoammonium will continue the depressed trend in the short term, and diammonium will mainly finish and operate smoothly.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to be weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2866.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2833.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.16% during the week.

The domestic soda ash and sulfur prices continued to fall this week. Under the pressure of cost, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price continued to be weak and downward. This week, the domestic industrial sodium pyrosulfite market price range was 2700-3000 yuan / ton, and most prices were concentrated near 2700-2800 yuan / ton. The prices of upstream raw materials continued to fall, the downstream trade subjects had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the overall procurement was cautious. The transactions in the sodium metabisulfite market were relatively light, and the enterprises mainly completed the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact each manufacturer for details).

Since the beginning of December, the price of domestic soda ash has fallen by 8.68% and the price of sulfur has fallen by 3.33%. The price of raw materials continues to be weak and the cost continues to fall, which will further suppress the market price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to fall in the short term under the continuous weakness of raw material costs, cautious purchase and sales of downstream trade and the dual repression of costs and demand.

According to the data of business agency, from November 29 to December 3, the price of MTBE fell from 6386 yuan / ton to 6310 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.19% in the week, a month on month decrease of 0.47% and a year-on-year increase of 65.33%.

MTBE market rose first and then fell, with an overall slight decline of 100-200 yuan / ton compared with last week. Affected by the negative factors such as the new mutant strain in South Africa and concerns about the economic outlook, the international oil price fell sharply, and Brent once fell to US $68.87/barrel, putting pressure on the bad of commodities. Affected by the negative demand and external conditions, the gasoline market has also fallen, with poor sales and low demand for raw materials. The price of raw material C4 has fallen sharply by 300-400 yuan / ton, which has put a certain pressure on the MTBE market.

In terms of methanol, macro and coal prices may have limited support for methanol. Basically, the supply is expected to decrease, but the demand side is also weakened, and the range may be relatively large. It is expected that the market will decline weakly next week.

Comparison chart of crude oil and MTBE price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of gasoline and MTBE price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of diesel and MTBE price trend of business society:

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on December 2, the closing price of Asian MTBE market decreased by US $7 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $730-732 / T. The closing price of European MTBE market decreased by US $12 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $756.5-757 / T. The closing price of us MTBE market increased by US $5.90/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB price closed at US $846.36-846.71/t (238.41-238.51 cents / gallon)

Region, country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia FOB Singapore 730-732 USD / ton – USD 7 / ton

U.S.A FOB Bay USD 846.36-846.71/t USD 5.9/t

Europe FOB ARA USD 756.5-757 / ton – USD 12 / ton

In terms of enterprises, Shi dashenghua’s MTBE quotation was reduced by 100 yuan / ton to 6300 yuan / ton. The 200000 t / a isomerization unit of Shandong Chengtai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 50 yuan / T to 6400 yuan / T. The 400000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation and CO production of 350000 t MTBE unit of Shandong Shenchi Chemical Co., Ltd. started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 50 yuan / T to 6250 yuan / T. The MTBE quotation of Lihua Yijin Petrochemical is 6300 yuan / ton. The 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit of Dongming Qianhai chemical started normally, and the MTBE quotation was reduced by 50 yuan / T to 6300 yuan / T.

Enterprise, Device, Price

Chengtai chemical 200000 t / a isomerization unit under maintenance 6400 yuan / ton

Shi dashenghua 200000 t / a isomerization unit starts normally 6300 yuan / ton

Shenchi chemical 400000t / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation co production 350000t unit started normally 6250 yuan / ton

Li Huayi 125000 T / a isomerization MTBE unit operates normally 6300 yuan / ton

Dongming Petrochemical 350000 T / a mixed alkane dehydrogenation unit starts normally 6300 yuan / ton

Crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, giving some support to the market, but the market demand is limited, and there is still slight downward pressure in the short-term MTBE market. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may still decline in a narrow range in the short term.

Price rise and fall of main domestic hydrogenated benzene market from November 26 to December 3 (unit: yuan / ton)

Region. Price on November 26. Price on December 3. Weekly rise and fall

East China, 6450., 6300. – 150

Shandong Province, 6650., 6050. – 600

This week (November 26 to December 3), the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong decreased, from 6650 yuan / ton last weekend to 6050 yuan / ton this weekend, down 600 yuan / ton.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene in 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date., adjusted price., adjusted amount

October 8, 8000., + 300

October 11, 8400., + 400

October 26, 8100. – 300

October 28, 7600. – 500

November 16, 7400. – 200

November 18, 7000. – 400

November 26, 6700. – 300

November 29, 6450. – 250

On November 29, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan / ton to 6450 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical implemented 6400 yuan / ton. Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical offers 6200 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 6450 yuan / ton, and Jincheng Petrochemical offers 6150 yuan / ton; Weilian chemical offers 6103 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 6150 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 6250 yuan / ton.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices rebounded on December 2. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $66.50/barrel, up US $0.93 or 1.4%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $69.67/barrel, up US $0.80 or 1.2%. Oil prices closed higher on Thursday, mainly because the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) agreed to maintain the production increase plan in January, i.e. an increase of 400000 barrels / day, in line with market expectations, but the impact of the mutant virus Omicron on energy demand is still fermenting, and the oil price is still in an empty environment.

Since the end of November, the decline of crude oil has expanded, the downstream styrene has maintained a continuous downward trend, and the upstream and downstream support of pure benzene is weak. In terms of supply, the load of a large unit in East China is increased, and the supply of pure benzene is expected to increase in December; The arrival of cargo at East China port is concentrated, and the inventory rises rapidly. It is expected that the inventory will continue to rise in the later stage. Multiple bad news superimposed, and the price of pure benzene fell rapidly. The hydrogenated benzene market mainly followed the trend of pure benzene downward. This week, the bidding price of crude benzene in the downstream was significantly callback, and about 4985-4990 yuan / ton was implemented in Shandong. Weak supply and demand once again affected the market mentality. The number of maintenance and load reduction enterprises of benzene hydrogenation enterprises increased, the operating rate declined as a whole, and the future supply expectation was tight.

Affected by the sharp decline of market price and the high price of raw material crude benzene, the operating rate of benzene hydrogenation enterprises continued to decline in November, and the maintenance and load reduction devices increased recently. Compared with pure benzene, the start-up and shutdown costs of hydrogenated benzene enterprises are lower, and most manufacturers schedule their production according to their profits.

In the future, the business society believes that the accumulation of pure benzene in East China and the weak supply and demand once again affect the market mentality. At present, the profits of benzene hydrogenation enterprises are low, and the start-up of enterprises is low. The bidding price of crude benzene in Shanxi this week has been greatly reduced, which can alleviate the cost pressure of some benzene hydrogenation enterprises. However, under the influence of many negative fundamental factors, the future price is expected to be weak.

This week, the domestic EVA market continued to decline, and the market transaction atmosphere was poor. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 21666.67 yuan / ton on November 28 and 20500.00 yuan / ton on December 3. The decline rate during the week was 5.38%, down 9.56% compared with November 1.

As of December 3, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 19500 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 20000 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 22000 yuan / ton

The domestic EVA market price continued to fall this week, with many negative factors in the market. During the week, the ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises fell, the cost support was weak, the international crude oil price fell, and the news was bad. In addition, the price of bidding goods was reduced, the downstream just needed to make up, the enthusiasm for entering the market was general, the overall transaction atmosphere in the market was poor, the merchant mentality was weak, and most of the offers followed the reduction for shipment.

In the upstream ethylene market, the external ethylene market has been shaken and consolidated recently. The price of ethylene in Asia fell. As of the 2nd, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 1096-1106 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 1041-1051 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and rose. As of the 2nd, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1232-1243 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1154-1163 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 2nd, the price was 658-675 yuan / ton. Recently, the external ethylene market continued to decline as a whole, with poor demand, cold market trading atmosphere and difficult transaction.

In terms of supply, there is little change in market supply, the supply of soft materials is relatively sufficient, and the supply of hard materials is tight. In terms of demand, the overall market demand has weakened, the demand for photovoltaic materials has gradually decreased, and the downstream factories make up as needed. The overall transaction atmosphere is general, the merchants’ mentality is weak, mainly shipping. It is expected that the EVA market will be mainly consolidated in the short term or weak.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell sharply this week. This week, the mainstream ex factory average price of isooctanol in Shandong fell from 12033.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 10933.33 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1100 yuan / ton, down 9.14%, up 14.69% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, Shandong isooctanol market fell sharply this week. On December 5, the isooctanol commodity index was 80.39, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.53% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 128.71% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong fell this week: Jianlan chemical quoted about 11000 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which fell by 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend, dominated by contracts; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 10800 yuan / ton, which is 1300 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 11000 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 7742.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 7458.83 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.66%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.57%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. DOP price fell from 11612.50 yuan / ton last weekend to 10850.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 6.57%, up 11.86% year-on-year over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In the first ten days of December, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The upstream propylene fell slightly, the cost support weakened, while the downstream DOP market fell sharply, the downstream market continued to decline, and the demand was general. According to isooctanol analysts of business society, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly in early December.