Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week, from 3118.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 3265.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.71%, a year-on-year increase of 49.54%. On May 15, the urea commodity index was 152.33, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 173.97% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The cost support is good, the downstream demand increases and the urea supply decreases

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3450 yuan / ton this weekend, up 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 3250 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 150 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 3205 yuan / ton this weekend, up 125 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 7302.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 6936.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 5.01%, a year-on-year increase of 77.39% compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have been running smoothly recently. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 5126.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 5333.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.03%, a year-on-year increase of 39.25% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 10233.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 10300.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.65%.

From the perspective of demand: the agricultural demand in Xinjiang and southern China is good, the demand of enterprises in Hefei is increased, the plate factory purchases on demand, and the demand of urea industry is sufficient. Buy up rather than buy down, and the trading atmosphere of urea is good. From the perspective of supply: there were many urea maintenance manufacturers in May, and the supply decreased. Various factors continue to drive up the price of urea. The policy of ensuring supply and price stability remains unchanged.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the middle of May, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream market rose slightly and the cost support is better. The agricultural demand is weakened, the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises is general, the plate factory purchases on demand, and the downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards high price urea. From the perspective of supply: there are many urea maintenance manufacturers in May, and the urea supply is expected to decline. The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price remained unchanged, and urea fell slightly in the future.

In May (5.1-5.15), the market of CIS polybutadiene rubber fell slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 15, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber in China was 13530 yuan / ton, down 2.10% from 13820 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the ex factory price of polybutadiene rubber of domestic enterprises has been reduced slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, as of May 15, the ex warehouse price of Qilu Shunding of Sinopec North China sales company was 13200 yuan / ton. The price of raw butadiene fell slightly, the demand side was weak, and the CIS polybutadiene rubber market adjusted slightly downward.

Since May, the domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants have been started and upgraded, the cis-1,4-polybutadiene plants such as Lande and Dushanzi have been restarted one after another, the cis-1,4-polybutadiene plants such as Maoming, Sichuan and Qilu have been in normal operation, and the supply side is becoming loose.

In May, the price of butadiene fell slightly again, and the short-term support of cost side weakened. According to the monitoring of business society, as of May 15, the price of butadiene was 9586 yuan / ton, down 2.34% from 9816 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since May, the natural rubber market has fluctuated and consolidated. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 15, the price of natural rubber was 12545 yuan / ton, down 0.46% from 12512 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In May, the start-up of downstream tires remained low. On the one hand, some work stoppages and holidays were held during the Labor Day holiday, on the other hand, the production and sales of some tire factories were not ideal, the inventory pressure was high, and they were cautious about the purchase of high priced CIS polybutadiene rubber.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the support of raw material cost is weakened again, the downstream demand is weak, and the pressure on supply side is increased. It is expected that the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber will fluctuate and fall in the later period.

The lead market (5.6-5.13) fluctuated upward this week. The average price of the domestic market was 15685 yuan / ton last weekend and 15000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 4.37% this week.

Investors can use the K-bar chart to reflect the price change of commodities every week, or the K-bar chart to reflect the price change of commodities every month. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the non-ferrous sector in the list of commodity prices in the 19th week of 2022 (5.9-5.13). The top three commodities are praseodymium neodymium oxide (4.90%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (4.74%) and metal neodymium (3.17%). A total of 12 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 1 kind of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were tin (- 9.32%), magnesium (- 4.04%) and electrolytic manganese (- 3.99%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.68%.

Lead futures market on May 6, 2022

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory

Shanghai lead, 14990 yuan / ton- 755., 92960 tons

London lead, USD 2078 / T- 152., 38175 tons

In the futures market, Lun lead fell continuously this week, with a decline of more than 6%, and the operating range was US $2080-2285 / ton, with a wide decline. Affected by the Fed’s interest rate hike, the performance of US data is poor, the overall high operation of the US dollar, the non-ferrous metal market is generally under pressure, most of them are down this week, and Lun lead is under pressure. Shanghai lead’s performance is similar to that of Lun lead. It went down as a whole this week, with an operating range of 14920-15820 yuan / ton, down 5.4% this week and falling continuously during the week. In terms of inventory, Shanghai lead inventory increased significantly this week, rising to 92960 tons by Friday, with a total increase of 10331 tons, which was bad for the market again.

In the domestic market, the recent market is in the off-season, and the lead price mainly fluctuates with the futures market, falling 4.37% this week. The high level of the futures market fell, and the spot market generally fell. Basically, due to the impact of refinery maintenance and slightly tight mine end supply, the supply of lead ingots is weak at present. In terms of downstream demand, the battery has entered the traditional off-season market, and the domestic sales situation is general, while the recent performance of foreign orders is also weak, the off-season performance is obvious, and the support for the demand for lead ingots is limited. With the price falling all the way, there are some low-price inquiries in the market, but the overall trading is on the sidelines. On the whole, the metal market is under pressure as a whole, and it is expected that the trend will be weak and volatile in the short term.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price first rose and then fell this week. The sulfuric acid price first rose from 1141.67 yuan / ton on May 7 to 1190.00 yuan / ton on May 10, up 4.23%, and then fell to 1092.00 yuan / ton, down 8.24%, up 76.13% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On May 12, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 169.96, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.63% from the highest point of 188.07 in the cycle (2022-04-13), and up 439.21% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is strong and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weakened

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers fell slightly this week, the manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is weakened. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid quoted 1100 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell 440 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Zouping Tianlu sulfuric acid is quoted at 1000 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid quoted 1150 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Changzhou Changjiang sulfuric acid quoted 1150 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid is quoted at 1050 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the weekend, the price of sulfur industry rose by 383.53% year-on-year from the upstream / downstream market, which continued to rise by 33.53% over the same period last year. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market was consolidated at a high level, with the price of 11720.00 yuan / ton, up 11.62% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream titanium dioxide market fell slightly, and the price fell from 21033.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 20950.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.40%, down 2.86% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream products had a negative impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

The market outlook fell slightly

In mid May, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate and fall slightly. The upstream sulfur market has gradually risen recently, and the cost support is good. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market was consolidated at a high level, the downstream titanium dioxide market fell slightly, the downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the domestic sulfuric acid Market in the short term, the market price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate and fall slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate at the beginning of the week was 9416.67 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate at the end of the week was 9500.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.88%, the current price rose by 3.86% month on month, and the current price rose by 40.74% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

The price of potassium carbonate rose sharply this week. As can be seen from the figure above, the potassium carbonate market has been rising continuously recently, and the market has reached a new high this week. The volume of imported potassium by sea this week was not sufficient, and the port inventory continued to decline. The shortage of raw materials drives the rise of potassium carbonate market. According to the statistics of business agency, the mainstream factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 9500-9600 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has increased slightly. At present, the price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5200-5300 yuan / ton; The price of 60% Dahong granules in the port has been raised by about 5000-5100 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 4400-4900 yuan / ton.

In the near future, the supply of potash fertilizer in China is in short supply. The market expects that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

After the May Day holiday, the domestic liquefied gas market rose as a whole, and the civil gas market in Shandong fluctuated and rose, with prices mostly around 6400 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 6340.00 yuan / ton on May 1 and 6470.00 yuan / ton on May 7, with an increase of 2.05% and 52.83% compared with the same period last year.

As of May 7, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions of China are as follows:

Region., Mainstream quotation

North China., 6000-6400 yuan / ton

South China., 6390-6600 yuan / ton

Northeast China., 5750-5900 yuan / ton

Shandong Province., 6380-6600 yuan / ton

After May Day, the domestic liquefied gas market trend is strong, and most of the prices are dominated by the behavior. During the May Day holiday, the international crude oil rose significantly, which brought obvious support to the market in terms of cost, and the liquefied gas market increased during the holidays. After the festival, there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream, with good enthusiasm for entering the market and mild market transaction atmosphere. In addition, there is little pressure on the supply of Shandong civil gas market, the manufacturers ship smoothly, have a strong attitude and raise the price. However, there are still negative factors in the current market. With the end of replenishment after the festival, the downstream has withdrawn from the market and consumed inventory. The market transaction atmosphere has weakened compared with that in the early stage. In addition, the weak terminal demand has brought obvious restraint to the market.

After the festival, the LPG futures market rose first and then fell, which brought limited support to the spot market. On May 6, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2206 was 6285, the highest price was 6340, the lowest price was 6120, the closing price was 6182, the former settlement price was 6257, the settlement price was 6226, down 75, the trading volume was 136144, the position was 57610, and the daily position was increased by – 624. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the international crude oil continues to rise, and the news is good for the market mentality, but the overall trading atmosphere of the market is limited. As the weather continues to warm after the festival, the terminal demand is weak. After the downstream replenishment after the festival, they withdraw from the market one after another to consume inventory, but the supply pressure of Shandong market is not large, which brings some support to the market. It is expected that the market price of Shandong civil gas may weaken in the short term, and the range may be limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene rose continuously this week. On April 29, the price was 7360 yuan / ton; On Friday (May 6), the price was 7460 yuan / ton, up 1.36% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 29.12%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil rose continuously, gasoline was consumed to a certain extent during the festival, and the downstream air was filled after the festival. In addition, the main refineries raised prices continuously, and the toluene market actively followed up.

In terms of external market, the price of toluene in Asia rose this week. On Friday (May 6), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1059 / ton, a year-on-year increase of US $25 / ton, or 2.42%.

Crude oil rose broadly this week. The European Union plans to gradually stop Russian oil imports, the market has intensified concerns about tight crude oil supply, and international oil prices have risen continuously. As of May 6, Brent rose $3.05 / barrel, or 2.79%; WTI rose $5.08/barrel, or 4.85%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China continued to decline this week. The price was 17775 yuan / ton on April 29 and 17550 yuan / ton on May 6, down 1.27% from last week and up 14.46% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (May 6), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 8900 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 39.06% compared with the same period last year. On May 6, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was USD 1180 / T FOB Korea and USD 1198 / T CFR China.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose slightly this week. The price was 8819.8 yuan / ton on April 229 and 8907.4 yuan / ton on May 6, up 0.99% from last week and 18.03% from the same period last year. The rise in crude oil prices, coupled with the increase in on-site demand, led to a rise in the gasoline market.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the fear of tightening oil supply remains unabated. However, high oil prices are bad for the economy and demand, rising inflation or restraining the rise of oil prices, and there is still a risk of violent fluctuations in short-term crude oil. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil is strong and the cost side is well supported. The favorable gasoline market lacks sustainability, the downstream chemical industry mainly maintains rigid demand, and the logistics and transportation have not been fully recovered, and the demand for toluene is still weak. Overall, toluene support still exists, waiting for demand to recover. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline, and the impact of the dynamics and demand of toluene and downstream devices on the price of toluene.

The price of acetic anhydride rose sharply after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply after the festival, and the acetic anhydride market recovered. As of May 9, the price of acetic anhydride was 8525.00 yuan / ton, up 14.62% from 7437.50 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic anhydride of some manufacturers wants to break the 9000 yuan mark, up nearly 2000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw material acetic acid fluctuated and rose

It can be seen from the correlation statistics of business society that the correlation coefficient between acetic anhydride and acetic acid from May 2021 to April 2022 is 0.958, and acetic anhydride and acetic acid are highly positively correlated. It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society that the price of acetic acid rose sharply after the festival, and the price of acetic acid rose by 10.09%. After the festival, some acetic acid enterprises stopped production and maintenance, the operating rate of acetic acid enterprises decreased, the supply of acetic acid decreased, the driving force for the rise of acetic acid increased, the cost of acetic anhydride increased, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride increased.

The price of raw material methanol stopped falling and recovered

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of business society, the methanol price stopped falling and recovered after the festival, and the overall methanol price rose. As of May 9, the methanol price was 2750 yuan / ton, up 0.18% from 2745 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the methanol price fluctuated and rose, and the methanol market recovered. After the festival, the price of methanol stopped falling, the cost of acetic anhydride increased, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride remained, and the upward momentum increased.

Outlook

Analysts of acetic anhydride data of business society believe that the decline of raw material methanol has stopped, the price of acetic acid has risen sharply, and the cost of acetic anhydride has risen; After the festival, the shutdown and maintenance of acetic acid enterprises increased, the supply of acetic acid decreased, and the rising power of acetic acid increased; The price of acetic anhydride raw materials increases, the cost of acetic anhydride rises, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise increases. Generally speaking, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials will rise in the future, and the price of acetic anhydride is expected to rise in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of May 6, 2022, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 13666 yuan / ton. Compared with May 1 (the ex factory price of butanone was 13800 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 134 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.97%. Compared with April 1 (the ex factory price of butanone refers to 14933 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1267 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.48%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in April, the domestic butanone market fell as a whole. Under the influence of insufficient demand and logistics factors, the transmission of butanone supply and demand was slow, and the market ran all the way down. In May, during the Labor Day holiday, the domestic butanone market was calm, and the market was mainly sorted and operated. After the festival, the boost of domestic demand in the downstream of butanone was not obvious. On the 5th, the quotation of some butanone factories was adjusted downward, with an adjustment range of 200-300 yuan per ton. The holders of butanone in South China were not willing to lower their prices, and the quotation was mainly multidimensional and stable. On the 6th, the overall butanone market fell slightly again, and the domestic ex factory price of butanone was around 13300-13600 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of butanone on the floor is general, the downstream wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the overall transaction of new orders is flat.

In the upstream, during the May Day holiday, the overall trend of the domestic liquefied gas market is relatively strong, the civil gas market in Shandong is steadily rising, the market supply remains low, the supply pressure is not large, in terms of demand, the downstream purchase rises into the market, the enthusiasm is OK, the market trading atmosphere is mild, the factory inventory has a strong mentality, and the price is relatively strong. It is expected that the price of liquefied gas market will continue to be strong in the short term. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on May 5, the reference price of liquefied gas was 6446 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.67% compared with May 1 (6340 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the raw material support of butanone cost is acceptable, and the room for field operators to continue to make profits is limited. The butanone data division of business society believes that in the short term, the butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the basic changes of butanone supply and demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cocoon and silk market price was slightly adjusted this week (may 2-may 6). As of May 6, the average price of the dry cocoon market remained 128000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 0.39% year-on-year. The average market price of raw silk was 390125 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from the beginning of the week and 1.55% year-on-year. This month, the market is dominated by narrow consolidation, and the trend is calm.

In terms of the purchase price of spring cocoons, the purchase price of spring cocoons in all parts of Guangxi continues to be listed, and the purchase price of spring cocoons has increased slightly. At present, the purchase price in Yizhou is maintained at about 44-46 yuan / kg, that in Liucheng county is maintained at about 43-46 yuan / kg, that in Xincheng County is maintained at about 40-42 yuan / kg, that in Huanjiang County is maintained at about 40-45 yuan / kg, and that in Napo County is maintained at about 44-48 yuan / kg, The purchase price of Pingguo County is maintained at about 46-47 yuan / kg, which forms a certain support for the recent price.

In terms of demand, there is not much good news in the downstream consumer market. The spot price is weak and stable, the transaction is light, the downstream production and sales are weak, the product shipment in the end consumer market is not smooth, the downstream weaving, processing and production enterprises purchase on demand, and there is still a lack of substantive guarantee for the promotion of the market. In the future, it will continue to consolidate in a narrow range.

Business analysts believe that the upstream raw material supply is sufficient and the cocoon cost has a certain support for the market, but the downstream demand has not recovered significantly. Raw silk lacks the basis for forming a long-term upward trend, and the probability of continuous shock consolidation in the future market is still too high.