1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business society, mixed xylene rose in shock this month, and the price rose in a wide range. On May 1, the price of mixed xylene was 7330 yuan / ton; On May 27, the price was 7880 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.5% over the beginning of the month and 32.66% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil rose broadly this month, with strong cost support. The gasoline market in the United States is rising, the demand for related toluene and xylene is strong, the price in the U.S. gold market is high, and the domestic toluene export is positive. Due to the problem of export tax rebate, the export arbitrage of mixed xylene was limited, mainly followed by the rise of toluene and crude oil in the month.

In terms of crude oil, due to the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the fact that the EU embargo policy on Russian oil has not yet been implemented, the future crude oil supply is still expected to be tight. In addition, the continuous rise of gasoline prices in the United States, and the peak season of fuel oil demand is coming, the growth of demand drives up the international oil price. As of May 27, Brent rose $10.09/barrel, or 9.23%; WTI rose $10.38/barrel, or 9.91%.

In terms of external trading, Asian mixed xylene in external trading rose by more than 10% this month. On May 27, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was $1242.5/t, a month on month increase of $176 / T, or 16.5%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was USD 1207.5/t, with a month on month increase of USD 118 / T, or 10.83%.

In the PX market, domestic PX prices rose sharply this month. The price was 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9900 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price increased by 11.24% compared with the beginning of the month and 54.69% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of ox market, the price ladder of ox in East China rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 8200 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 8600 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.88% over the beginning of the month and 38.71% over the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the price was 8819.8 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 8720.6 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from the beginning of the month and up 14.95% from the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the peak season of U.S. gasoline and diesel demand is coming. In addition, the European Union has launched negotiations on whether to completely ban the import of Russian oil. The tension between supply and demand of crude oil has intensified, and it is still possible to rise. In June, the crude oil trend continued to fluctuate violently. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and other factors on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil is strong, the external price is high, and the external news support is good. The downstream PX operating rate has increased, the demand is well supported, and the trend of mixed xylene is expected to be strong. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene price.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose sharply this month. On the whole, the price rose from 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 17066.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 20.47%.

Domestic isobutyraldehyde market in May

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream domestic isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose sharply this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average. At the end of the month, the quotation for isobutyraldehyde of benefit was 17000 yuan / ton, an increase of 3000 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the month; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 17000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Hualu Hengsheng quoted 17200 yuan / ton of isobutyraldehyde at the end of the month, an increase of 2700 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is weakened

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose first and then fell this month. The price fell from 8414.60 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8070.60 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.09%, a year-on-year increase of 3.72% compared with the same period last year, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream neopentyl glycol market price fell slightly, from 17533.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 16833.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.99%. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde weakened.

Slightly volatile decline in the future

In the middle and early June, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a small shock and decline. The price of propylene in the upstream has fallen slightly recently, the cost support is insufficient, the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream has fallen slightly, the enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde in the downstream has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isobutyraldehyde analysts of the business club believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

In May, the domestic cyclohexanone market was running at a high level. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 11200 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 11710 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.55% in the month and 10.06% year-on-year.

In May, the cyclohexanone market continued to be on the high side, and the high level of raw material pure benzene supported the whole industry chain. In terms of supply, the operating rate of production enterprises was low, and the supply was slightly tight, adding positive factors. At the same time, the downstream continued to recover, the basic demand began to expand, and the cyclohexanone market was relatively strong in the whole may.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone was stronger and higher, the cost pressure increased, and the downstream chemical fiber was purchased cautiously at a high price. Due to the low volume of cyclohexanone, the market supply was stable and there was no pressure, and the cyclohexanone manufacturers followed the raw materials.

In the first ten days of January, the domestic cyclohexanone market was at a high level. The raw material pure benzene rose at a high level. Sinopec pure benzene was listed for three times and increased by 350 yuan / ton to 9300 yuan / ton. The cost rose strongly, and the cost pressure of cyclohexanone increased. Downstream caprolactam rose passively, but the overall load was low and at a loss. The enthusiasm for outsourcing was weak, and the delivery of cyclohexanone was not smooth. Under the cost pressure, the market maintained a firm operation.

In the middle of May, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to be weak. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the pressure on the cost side remains unabated. The downstream chemical fiber market was stable and rising. Sinopec caprolactam was listed and raised by 200 yuan / ton, but the purchase enthusiasm was general. In addition, the transportation was limited, the shipment of cyclohexanone was blocked, some enterprises stopped to reduce production, the overall supply and demand of cyclohexanone was weak, and the market was in a stalemate and consolidation.

In late June, the domestic cyclohexanone market was on the lookout for consolidation. The raw material pure benzene fluctuated at a high level, the cost pressure remained unabated, and the downstream chemical fiber market was relatively strong. However, due to poor demand and profit, the enthusiasm for outsourcing was general, the delivery of cyclohexanone was not smooth, the market was sideways consolidated, and the transaction atmosphere was the same.

Monthly K column chart of domestic production price of cyclohexanone of business agency:

Weekly K column chart of domestic production price of cyclohexanone of business agency:

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of May 30:

region ., price

East China, 11900-12000 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China ., 12000-12100 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region, 11700-11800 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene in East China rose, while the market price in Shandong fell. The spot transaction in East China was 9150-9500 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong was 8680-9000 yuan / ton. The main driving force for the rise in East China was the strong air pressure at the end of the month, while Shandong fell back due to the decline in downstream demand, and the price difference between East China and Shandong continued to widen.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in Business Club:

Downstream caprolactam: the caprolactam market has been slightly explored. At present, the cost and supply side still form a support. The price of East China pure benzene in the upstream is basically maintained at around 9300 yuan / ton. With the shutdown and maintenance of Lunan Chemical, the supply of caprolactam is further reduced, and the seller’s price is firm.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business community:

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in April 2022, 41 commodities in the chemical industry sector rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were formic acid (36.15%), caustic soda (13.35%) and flake soda (9.32%). A total of 66 commodities fell month on month, and 29 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 26.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were propylene glycol (-20.05%), acetic acid (-18.39%) and glycine (-16.77%). The average increase or decrease in this month was -1.87%.

The raw material pure benzene is at a high level, the pressure on the cost side is not reduced, the downstream chemical fiber follows up on demand, and the supply of cyclohexanone is stable. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business society predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market will still operate stably.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of May 27, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a domestic high-class power product, was 155000.00 yuan / ton. In May, the market price of lithium iron phosphate was mainly stable. Compared with the same period last month, the price did not change significantly. It continued to operate smoothly, and the supply side remained tight. The overall market negotiation focus of lithium iron phosphate was stable, and the price was mainly stable in the short term.

In the first ten days of May, the price of lithium iron phosphate mainly kept stable, the mainstream price was 155000 yuan / ton, and the downstream just needed to purchase. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is insufficient. The contract customers are mainly responsible for arranging orders for shipment, the number of new orders is limited, the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the price remains high, the upstream remains high, the price continues to rise, the cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate remains, and after the May Day holiday of the upstream lithium carbonate, Lithium carbonate prices are still slightly lower. Recently, some lithium salt manufacturers in the market have low transaction prices and strong willingness to ship due to capital and shipping pressure. However, the price of lithium carbonate continues to decline, making the downstream still in a wait-and-see state, with poor willingness to receive goods. As of May 5, industrial lithium carbonate was 462000 yuan / ton, and battery lithium carbonate was 478000 yuan / ton.

In the middle of May, the price of lithium iron phosphate mainly kept stable, the mainstream price was 155000 yuan / ton, and the downstream just needed to purchase. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, some manufacturers are shut down, the supply of goods is tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. The contract customers are mainly responsible for arranging orders for shipment, the number of new orders is limited, the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the price remains high, the upstream remains high, and the price continues to rise, The cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate still exists. The price of lithium carbonate in the upstream fell sharply. At present, the market supply is stable. However, the demand for terminals and batteries has not recovered significantly under the epidemic. The orders for cathode materials have also remained low, making the purchase of raw materials still relatively small. In the case of weak market demand, the price trend of lithium carbonate is slightly weak, mostly maintaining a low level. Industrial lithium carbonate is 450000 yuan / ton, and battery lithium carbonate is 467000 yuan / ton.

In late May, the price of power type high-quality lithium iron phosphate was 155000 yuan / ton. The downstream just needed to purchase, and the overall market was running smoothly. At present, the manufacturer’s supply is still tight and the supply side is in short supply. The manufacturer mainly arranges and delivers goods to contract customers. The number of new orders is limited. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, and the price remains high. The upstream stays high and continues to support the price. The cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate remains, As of April 24, the price of upstream lithium carbonate fluctuated slightly. At present, some small and medium-sized cathode manufacturers have gradually improved due to the low inventory in the early stage and the recent epidemic situation in some regions. Market confidence has increased, and small batches of lithium carbonate just need to be purchased. However, due to the strong selling in the early stage and the decline of inventory, the market is reluctant to sell at this stage, and the market game mood is renewed. Industrial lithium carbonate is 448000 yuan / ton, and battery lithium carbonate is 467000 yuan / ton.

Chemical industry index: on May 26, the chemical industry index was 1201 points, an increase of 1 point compared with yesterday, a decrease of 14.21% compared with the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 100.84% compared with the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the analysts of lithium iron phosphate of business club, it is expected that in the short term, the lithium iron phosphate market will be mainly stable, the manufacturers will mainly supply contract customers, and new orders will not be received, so the overall market supply shortage will be difficult to alleviate. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of the business agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on May 20 was 11160 yuan / ton, up 2.57% from 10880 at the beginning of the week and 111.27% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The price of raw materials continued to rise this week. Phosphoric acid enterprises watched carefully, and the enterprise increased moderately at about 200-600 yuan / ton. Near the wet season, there is still no significant improvement in the construction of yellow phosphorus in the field. The spot is tight, the price is high, and the price of phosphoric acid is pushed up under the pressure of cost. At present, the operation of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, but the downstream follow-up is insufficient, and the market trading is tepid. By the end of the week, the price of raw materials was about 39500-40000 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid was about 10600-12800 yuan / ton. The quotation in Sichuan is about 10600-11300 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 11000-12500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 11000-12000 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 11000-12000 yuan / ton.

Recently, the domestic phosphate rock market has been rising as a whole. The supply in the phosphate rock field is still tight. The supply of several mainstream domestic mines is tight, mainly for their own use, and there is basically no external supply inventory. Some mines in other regions have taken the initiative to contract shareholders and users, and there is no external quotation for the time being. Some orders have been arranged until June. At present, the overall inventory in the phosphate rock field is low, the market circulation supply is small, and the domestic phosphate rock market price continues to move closer to the high end.

Yellow phosphorus: at present, the operating load of yellow phosphorus enterprises is not high, and there is still no significant increase in the on-site operation near the wet season. Manufacturers often send early orders, the spot is tight, and the transaction price in the overall market is further close to the high-end. Downstream enterprises are more wait-and-see, and most of them digest the early inventory. The turnover of new yellow phosphorus orders is relatively small, and the manufacturers mainly support the price, mostly stabilize, and some enterprises still have the intention to rise. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 39500 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of business society, due to the rising price of raw materials, the support of cost side is strengthened, and the overall focus of phosphoric acid market is shifted upward. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be stable and upward in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8637.5 yuan / ton on May 20, down 32.5 yuan / ton from 8670 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 0.37% during the cycle and 6.25% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

During the week, the price of PVC fell slightly, the disk was weak, the futures price fell, the spot market fell significantly, and the focus shifted downward. The price of raw calcium carbide is temporarily stable and the cost support is acceptable, but the downstream demand is less than expected, the release of real estate demand is insufficient, and public health events in various parts of China are still severe. PVC enterprises have poor shipments, increased inventories and reduced prices, but the market trading sentiment is not high. As of the weekend, the price of raw calcium carbide was around 4400-4500 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises was mostly around 8600-8850 yuan / ton. For the external price, the PVC export quotation of Formosa Plastics in June was reduced by 120-150 US dollars / ton, CFR India by 150 US dollars to 1410 US dollars / ton, CFR China by 130 US dollars to 1210 US dollars / ton, and FOB Taiwan by 1170 US dollars / ton.

According to the weekly rise and fall from February 28, 2022 to May 22, 2022, it can be seen that domestic PVC rises and falls in the cycle. The maximum rise is in the week of February 28 and the maximum decline is in the week of April 25. There is little overall fluctuation in the near future.

International crude oil futures rose slightly on May 20. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $110.28/barrel, up US $0.39 or 0.4%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $113.23/barrel, up US $1.02 or 0.9%.

Ethylene, the external ethylene market this week showed an overall downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell. As of the 19th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1096-1106 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1146-1156 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell. As of the 19th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1732-1741 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1410-1418 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 19th, the price was 629-646 yuan / ton. This week, the external market ethylene showed a downward trend. The actual transaction was poor, and the price gradually fell.

Calcium carbide, in late May, the market of calcium carbide may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide increased, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late May.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the downstream demand is general, and the export has weakened. Although some enterprises plan maintenance, there is still pressure on enterprise shipment, and the market sentiment is negative. It is expected that the PVC market will be weak in the short term.

The domestic methanol market rose weakly and fluctuated in a narrow range this week. Although the rebound of crude oil in the first half of the week made methanol futures rise synchronously and break through 2800 yuan / ton in the session, the rising supply made the industry generally have low expectations for the future market. At the beginning of the week, the ex factory offer of the main production enterprises in the main production area increased, but the spot gas buying is general, the demand is mainly about how long, the overall shipment is general, and the downstream receiving price is also difficult to push up.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from May 13 to 20, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises increased from 2642 yuan / ton to 2665 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.85% during the cycle, a price decrease of 6.08% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 2.20%.

As of the noon of May 23, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange had a weak shock. Ma2209 contract opened at 2743 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2823 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2735 yuan / ton. It closed at 2775 yuan / ton, up 49 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day and 872900 positions at noon.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of May 20:

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation

Shanxi Province, 2510 yuan / ton

Liaoning Province, 2740 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian Province, 2810-2850 yuan / ton

Two lakes region, About 2750-2800 yuan / ton

Anhui Province, About 2780 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 2610 yuan / ton

The profits of methanol industry chain decreased except dimethyl ether and acetic acid. Due to the sharp decline in the price of formaldehyde, the loss expanded again; The price of dimethyl ether and acetic acid is strong, while the price of raw methanol is weak, which improves its profit; MTBE is affected by the strong price of C4, resulting in a significant return of profits; The profit of methane chloride narrowed mainly due to the decline of its own price; Olefin monomers entered a loss again, mainly due to the sharp decline in the external price of ethylene monomers.

Comparison chart of price trend of coal / steam coal (upstream raw material) – methanol in shanghaishe:

Comparison chart of natural gas (upstream raw material) – methanol price trend of business community:

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on May 20, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $408.50-409.5/ton, down US $9 / ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 96.50-97.00 cents / gallon, down 2 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 365.00-365.50 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 408.50-409.5 USD / ton, – $9 / ton

Europe and America, The Gulf of the United States, 96.50-97.00 cents / gallon, – 2 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 365.00-365.50 euros / ton ., 0.25 euro / ton

The supply is relatively abundant, and the marginal demand is expected to improve. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market may be sorted out in the short term.

This week, the lead market (5.13-5.20) “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 15000 yuan / ton last weekend and 14915 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.57% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 20th week of 2022 (5.16-5.20), there are 11 commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, and the top three commodities are nickel (4.70%), praseodymium oxide (2.17%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (2.04%). A total of 11 commodities fell month on month, and the top three products were metal silicon (- 4.61%), magnesium (- 3.74%) and tin (- 3.53%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.2%.

Lead futures market on February 20, 2025

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory

Shanghai lead, 15005 yuan / ton+ 15. 90650 tons

London lead, USD 2160.5/t+ 82.5., 38850 tons

In the futures market, the “V” trend of Lun lead this week, with an overall shock range of US $2025-2133 / ton, with a wide shock. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar fluctuated at a high level, and the outer disk metals were generally under pressure. The downward trend was obvious, and Lun lead followed the decline. In the middle of the week, the US dollar and US stocks fell, the metal market stopped falling and stabilized, and began to touch the bottom and pick up. Shanghai lead basically follows the trend of Lun lead, with a shock range of 15090-14680 yuan / ton, and the overall trend is “V”.

In the domestic market, the recent market is in the off-season, and the lead price mainly follows the fluctuation of the futures market. The overall fluctuation closely follows the trend of Shanghai lead, showing a “V” shape as a whole. Basically, the supply side changes little, and the overall supply is slightly tight. In terms of downstream demand, the battery is still in the traditional seasonal off-season, the sales situation is general, and the support for the demand for lead ingots is limited. However, with the increase of areas for resumption of work and production in China, market participants believe that there may be a wave of replenishment demand for lead ingots in the future, so it supports the recovery of lead prices. However, according to the current overall situation, it is expected that the trend of weak shocks will be dominated in the short term.

The price of acetic anhydride stopped falling and recovered this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride stopped falling and warmed up this week, and the acetic anhydride market adjusted strongly. As of May 20, the price of acetic anhydride was 8475.00 yuan / ton, down 0.59% from 8525 yuan / ton on May 13 last weekend, and up 0.30% from 8450 yuan / ton on May 19; The price of acetic anhydride increased by 13.95% from 7437.50 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic anhydride stopped falling and rose, and the market of acetic anhydride picked up this week.

The price of raw material acetic acid fluctuated and rose

It can be seen from the correlation statistics of business society that the correlation coefficient between acetic anhydride and acetic acid from May 2021 to April 2022 is 0.958, and acetic anhydride and acetic acid are highly positively correlated. It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society that the price of acetic acid stopped falling and rose this week, and the price of acetic acid fell slightly by 0.20% this week; On May 20, the price of acetic acid increased by 0.20% compared with that on May 18. Some acetic acid enterprises stopped production for maintenance, the operating rate of acetic acid enterprises decreased, the supply of acetic acid decreased, the driving force for the rise of acetic acid was large, the cost of acetic anhydride increased, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride was large.

The price of raw material methanol fell after rising

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club, the methanol price fell after rising this week, and the overall methanol price fluctuated and stabilized. As of May 20, the methanol price was 2665 yuan / ton, up 0.85% from the methanol price of 2642.50 yuan / ton on May 13, and down 0.19% from the methanol price on May 18; Compared with May 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of methanol fell by 2745 yuan / ton, down 2.91%. This week, the price of methanol fluctuated and adjusted, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride still remained, with great upward momentum.

Outlook

Analysts of acetic anhydride data of business society believe that the raw material methanol is subject to shock adjustment, the rise of acetic acid price is blocked, and the cost of acetic anhydride is stabilizing; This week, acetic acid enterprises stopped production for more maintenance, the supply of acetic acid decreased, the driving force of acetic acid rise was large, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise was large. Generally speaking, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials will be adjusted strongly in the future, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be adjusted strongly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8670 yuan / ton on May 15, down 30 yuan / ton from 8700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 0.34% during the cycle and 6.05% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

With the return of the May Day holiday, the disk is relatively strong, coupled with the increase in the price of raw calcium carbide, the cost support is enhanced, and the PVC futures and spot prices rise hand in hand, but the rise has not lasted for a long time. The rise began to stop in the middle of the year, the mainstream prices across the country began to decline, and the market focus continued to move downward. Although the market has entered the peak season, public health events in various parts of China are still severe, restraining some demand, and the recent market transactions are tepid. As of the 15th, the price of raw calcium carbide is around 4400-4500 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises is mostly around 8600-9000 yuan / ton. At present, CFR China’s price is US $1300 / ton, CFR India’s price is US $1520 / ton, and Southeast Asia’s price is US $1395 / ton.

According to the weekly rise and fall from February 21, 2022 to May 15, 2022, it can be seen that domestic PVC rises and falls in the cycle. The maximum increase is in the week of February 28 and the maximum decrease is in the week of February 21. The overall fluctuation is small.

International crude oil futures rose sharply on May 13. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $110.49/barrel, up US $4.36 or 4.1%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.55/barrel, up US $4.10 or 3.8%. The epidemic situation in Asia has improved, and demand expectations and concerns have eased; The superimposed market is cautious about the EU oil embargo against Russia, and the expectation of supply tightening is still playing a role.

Ethylene, the external ethylene market this week showed an overall downward trend. Ethylene market prices in Asia fell. As of the 12th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1166-1176 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1216-1226 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell. As of the 12th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1758-1767 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1408-1417 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 12th, the price was 618-636 yuan / ton. This week, the inquiry in the external ethylene market was poor, the trading atmosphere was cold, and the price fell continuously.

Calcium carbide, in mid May, the market of calcium carbide may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is adjusted at a low level, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market has a downward trend, and the downstream demand is weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in mid May.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, it is the maintenance season, with the increase of raw materials and the support of supply costs. Although the downstream demand is lower than expected, it still has a certain toughness. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to fluctuate in the short term.