1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market fell from 12833.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 12233.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.68%. On July 11, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 58.96, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 43.09% from the peak of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Prices of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers fell this week

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market fell from 8466.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 7366.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 12.99%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell sharply, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In mid July, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply, the cost support weakened, the weather became hotter, the downstream coating market entered the off-season, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of business agency believes that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term neopentyl glycol market, the market price may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly.

From July 1 to July 8, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene decreased slightly, from 7805 yuan / ton last weekend to 7763 yuan / ton this weekend, a weekly decrease of 0.54%.

In terms of crude oil, the market’s concern about the global economic recession increased, leading to a sharp fall in international oil prices, and WTI oil prices fell below $100 a barrel. However, the inventory of refined oil products in the United States fell, and the increase in demand led to a rebound in oil prices. As of July 8, Brent’s price fell by $4.61 per barrel, or 4.13%, this week compared with last week; WTI fell $3.64 / barrel, or 3.36%.

On July 8, international crude oil futures continued to rise. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $104.79 / barrel, up $2.06 or 2.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $107.02 / barrel, up $2.37 or 2.3%. Previously, the oil price fell due to the risk of economic recession, and the oil price rebounded for two consecutive days. The main reason is that although the risk of global economic recession is still there, the market panic has weakened, and the focus has returned to the fundamentals of supply shortage.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 10, 10000.,+300

June 22, 9800.,-200

June 27, 9600.,-200

July 6, 9300.,-300

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan / ton on July 6, 2022, and 9300 yuan / ton was implemented.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical quote 9200 yuan / ton, Jingbo Petrochemical quote 9050 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quote 9200 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quote 9003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quote 9100 yuan / ton.

This week, the hydrogenation benzene market as a whole fluctuated downward. Fundamentals crude oil prices fell sharply last week, Brent fell 4.13%, WTI fell $3.64 / barrel, down 3.36%. The outer disk of pure benzene fell broadly, and the import price in East China fell by 7.19%. Dragged down by fundamentals, the price of pure benzene in Sinopec fell by 300 yuan / ton to 9300 yuan / ton this week (the price of pure benzene in Hebei and Shandong fell to 9150 yuan / ton). This week, the hydrogenated benzene market mainly followed the trend of pure benzene downward. In the future, the downstream styrene has certain support, and the demand for pure benzene is well supported. It is expected that the short-term pure benzene will be weak and volatile. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

The crude benzene market decreased slightly this week, and the mainstream in Shandong implemented 7775 ~ 7780 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton from last week. In terms of coking enterprises, the operating rate fell significantly this week. After the second round of increase and decrease of coke, there were widespread losses, and enterprises took the initiative to reduce production, resulting in a general tight supply of crude benzene in China, and enterprises had a strong attitude of supporting prices, and subsequent coking enterprises had plans to further reduce the operating rate. The operation of downstream benzene hydrogenation enterprises has declined recently, and they have some resistance to high priced crude benzene. The supply of crude benzene is tight recently. It is expected that the trend of crude benzene in the near future will be dominated by high-level consolidation, with limited downward space.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business news agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong Province fluctuated and consolidated this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong styrene was 10492.86 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of Shandong styrene was 10550.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.54%. The price increased by 11.94% over the same period last year.

styrene

Styrene market price fluctuated and consolidated this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has mainly fallen, and the price fluctuated slightly this week. The main reason is that affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices, the cost is the dominant force. The market price of pure benzene in China fell to 9235 yuan / ton, which is difficult to support the styrene market. The arrival of styrene in Hong Kong and the inventory of enterprises are low, which restrained the decline of styrene. The transaction in the styrene market is general, and the spot price fluctuates slightly.

In terms of raw materials, oil prices first fell and then rose. U.S. crude oil inventories increased, but refined oil inventories fell. The increase in demand for refined oil led to a rebound in international oil prices. Pure benzene fell slightly. On July 8, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 9150 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical offered 9150 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical offered 9300 yuan / ton. The decline of pure benzene cannot support the price of styrene.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream styrene rose and fell mixed this week. The PS market fell weakly, the cost side support weakened, and merchants’ shipments were under pressure, mainly with small price cuts. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market was 10800-11900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of hips (polystyrene) was 11300-13000 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of this week, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11325 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11525 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.88% and 5.98% compared with the same period of the year. The downstream batch purchase intention improved slightly, and the merchants delivered goods stably.

ABS market fell this week. In terms of industry load, the current operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited changes, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, and the pattern of weak market demand is gradually unfolding. Merchants give up profits and lower the focus of ABS offer.

Recently, the international crude oil market callback, styrene social inventory is low, and there are few negotiable sources of goods. On the whole, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose in June. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4650 yuan / ton, up 0.43% from the price of 4630 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 33.62% year-on-year.

In June, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the on-site supply of goods was normal, the on-site delivery was general, the manufacturer’s inventory was low, the upstream coal price of the terminal was stable, the price of nitric acid rose, the downstream demand was general, and the price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly due to the rise of raw materials. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream nitro compound fertilizer is purchased on demand. Recently, the trend of the downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable, and the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production. In addition, the sales of the civil explosive industry has come to an end, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has not increased much. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5000 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 4600-4700 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 5200-5300 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose sharply in June. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2950 yuan / ton, up 9.94% from 2683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The quotation of Shaanxi Xinghua is 2650 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 3350 yuan / ton. Recently, domestic nitric acid plants have operated stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the field has increased. In June, the market price of nitric acid has risen sharply, and the price of raw nitric acid has risen, which has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has risen.

The domestic market price of liquid ammonia in the upstream fell in June. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 4790 yuan / ton, down 9.45% from the price of 5290 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4700-4900 yuan / ton. Mainly due to the increase of regional supply, some devices are started and restarted; As well as the high urea level in the downstream, the demand for fertilizer in the downstream is still weak, and the resistance to high prices has further suppressed some demand; In addition, the production of urea in some enterprises decreased, the production of liquid ammonia increased, and the price of liquid ammonia in the field fell sharply. Superimposed on the weakening of agricultural demand in the downstream, the downstream stocking came to an end. The decline in the price of upstream liquid ammonia has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has not increased significantly.

Recently, the downstream procurement is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, but the raw material market price has remained high, which has brought some positive support to the ammonium nitrate Market. However, the sales of the civil explosive industry have weakened, and the ammonium nitrate analysts of the business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may stabilize in the later period.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the dichloromethane market fell in June. As of June 30, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3290 yuan / ton, down 13.14% from 3787 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In early June, dichloromethane fell all the way due to the impact of the supply side; From the middle of the year, the West Shandong and Jinling methane chloride plants began to reduce the load one after another, stimulating the market to rise slightly; However, the pressure on domestic dichloromethane supply is still large, and the price of dichloromethane has fallen again since the middle and late June.

In the first half of June, Jinling and other devices in Shandong began to reduce the load successively, which formed a certain stimulus support for the market; However, the domestic supply pressure is still large, and the market continues to decline in mid and late June.

In June, the spot price of raw methanol fluctuated and consolidated, and the cost side was first strong and then weak. According to the business news agency, as of June 30, the price of methanol was 2620 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.10% from 2617 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the month was 2715 yuan / ton. In June, methanol was mainly shaken and consolidated by the fluctuation of raw coal price. It can be seen from the “comparison of methanol dichloromethane price trend” chart that although methanol fluctuates at present, the cost of dichloromethane is still supported.

In June, the start-up of downstream pharmaceutical, polyurethane foaming, industrial refrigeration and other industries in dichloromethane was generally stable, and the downstream purchased dichloromethane on demand. The overall market transaction was stable and weak, and the support of demand for dichloromethane was weakened.

Aftermarket forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that the current supply and demand side is under pressure, and dichloromethane is expected to continue to weaken in the near future.

In June, the market price of nitrile rubber fell sharply. According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of nitrile rubber at the beginning of the month was 22750 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 19650 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.63% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. The nitrile rubber industry chain remained weak in June. First of all, the raw material level has gone down all the way, and the cost support has weakened; Secondly, there is great pressure on the supply side. Since May, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s new nitrile rubber plant has been gradually put into operation, which has a certain impact on the market; Finally, the start-up of downstream products industry has not been significantly improved, and there is resistance to high price goods, so the market transaction is not ideal. The ex factory price of nitrile rubber production enterprises has been gradually reduced, and many enterprises have certain concessions for customers’ actual transactions, and the market quotation has fallen all the way. As of June 30, the mainstream price of Lanhua nitrile 3305 in China was 18200~18500 yuan / ton; Shunze 3355 mainstream newspaper 18000~18500 yuan / ton; Nandi 1052 mainstream reported 11800~22200 yuan / ton.

Since June, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 100000 t / a nitrile rubber plant has been in normal operation. Although a total of 95000 T / a nitrile rubber plants in alantai rubber and Ningbo shunze were shut down during the month, the supply of nitrile rubber in the nitrile rubber market is relatively sufficient except for some brands. In addition, the downstream demand is weak, and the ex factory price of nitrile rubber is gradually reduced. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 30, Lanhua nitrile n41e reported 20000 yuan / ton; 3305e reported 20500 yuan / ton; The price of 3308e is 21900 yuan / ton; 2808 quoted 20200 yuan / ton, the listing price.

In June, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile fell, and the cost side weakened. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of June 30, the price of butadiene was 10446 yuan / ton, down 7.89% from 11341 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of June 30, the price of acrylonitrile was 10860 yuan / ton, down 5.24% from 11460 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the high level of international crude oil prices fell, and the cost side fell; On the other hand, due to the start-up of the unit, the supply of butadiene and acrylonitrile is large. Drag down the prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile.

There is no obvious increase in the start-up of the downstream nitrile products industry, the market transaction is relatively light, and the demand side support is weak

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business society believe that at present, NBR is in a weak state in terms of cost and supply and demand, which has a short impact on the NBR market. It is expected that the price of NBR will continue to be weak in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on June 30 was 120.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.49% from the highest point of 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 42.96% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

As shown in the figure, the monitoring data of the business society shows that the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride is mainly stable in the last ten days (June 20-30), and the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride is about 2230 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s production is normal, the spot inventory is sufficient, the demand is general, and the transaction is relatively light.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell slightly in late days (June 20-30). The average market price was mainly reported at about 295 yuan / ton on the 20th and 270 yuan / ton on the 30th, a decrease of 8.47%. Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has ups and downs, and the downstream demand is general; Judging from the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell slightly, giving hydrochloric acid insufficient support; The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream products were generally enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid, which had a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid. The analysis showed that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may have a slight shock and decline.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the LNG market was in the off-season in June, the demand support was weak, and the domestic LNG price continued to decline. Many liquid factories reduced prices and arranged warehouses, and liquid prices fell centrally. Near the end of the month, liquid prices in some regions rebounded slightly. It is expected that domestic LNG prices will be consolidated in the short term.

Future forecast: in the near future, the raw material cost will continue to be weak, the downstream demand will continue to be light, and the transaction will be general. It is expected that the future market of polyaluminum chloride will still be stable and weak occasionally.

This week, the domestic BDO market fell significantly, and the market focus continued to decline. The main reason for the decline of the price market is the continuous intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand. Manufacturers and mainstream traders mostly sell goods at a profit. However, demand continues to be light, the operating rate of downstream industries is generally low, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials has declined, and the BDO market price has fallen again and again.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from June 27 to July 1, the domestic BDO market price fell from 21300 yuan / ton to 20200 yuan / ton, with a weekly price drop of 5.16%, a month on month price drop of 9.50%, and a year-on-year increase of 16.59%. In terms of market price, the mainstream of spot apron in East China negotiated 19500-19500 yuan / ton; The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 19500-19700 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw calcium carbide: with the reduction of external sales of supporting calcium carbide and the recovery of demand, the rebound sign of calcium carbide is expected to become more obvious. In the short term, the domestic calcium carbide market is stable and small, and the supply-demand game is strengthened.

In terms of methanol, the demand adjustment is limited, the production cost of methanol changes little, the port inventory is strong, if the supply margin weakens, the expectation is fulfilled, and the crude oil is strong, the domestic methanol market may rise tentatively in the short term. BDO cost side support weakened.

Downstream ptme plant – Henan plans to restart another set of PTMEG device in July, but Xiaoxing Jiaxing device has negative expectations in July, and the overall opening is slightly lower; The start-up of PBT industry increased slightly; The demand of gbl-nmp industrial chain has no obvious rise temporarily, and the commencement changes little; The load of downstream TPU and Pu pulp changes little, and small orders are mainly needed; The start-up of PBAT industry fell to 10%, and the production was slow under the cost of new capacity and sales pressure. On the whole, the short-term BDO demand has little change.

The supply side inventory is expected to increase, while some major factories in the downstream industry plan to reduce negative production. The imbalance between supply and demand continued, with major production enterprises mainly selling goods at a profit. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the domestic BDO market may still decline.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on June 30 was 97.15, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.88% from the highest point of 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 17.20% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity prices: according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in late June (June 20-30) was stable at about 15900 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s production is normal and the market inventory is sufficient; The downstream demand is general, the enterprise has great shipping pressure, and the transaction is not easy.

Industry chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the domestic mainstream market fell from about 11080 yuan / ton to 10860 yuan / ton in late June (20-30 days), a decrease of 1.99%; Although propylene, the raw material, has rebounded slightly to 7996 yuan / ton recently, due to the great pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile market, market transactions are dominated by low-cost sources, and acrylonitrile prices continue to be low;

Raw material acrylic acid: the quotation in East China this ten days increased slightly by 0.72%. The mainstream production price in East China on the 20th was 13833.33 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 30th was 13933.33 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene market declined, the cost support weakened, the acrylic acid operating rate increased slightly, some enterprises were expected to overhaul their devices, the downstream operation was stable, the purchasing enthusiasm was general, the market mentality was different, and the trading atmosphere was light and stalemate.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the LNG market was in the off-season in June, and the demand support was weak. The domestic LNG price continued to decline, falling by 10.56% in the month, and the focus shifted downward. Among them, the decline of LNG in the first half of the month was 3.05%, and that in the second half of the month was 7.86%. Many liquid factories reduced prices and arranged warehouses, and liquid prices fell centrally. Near the end of the month, liquid prices in some regions rebounded slightly. It is expected that the domestic LNG price will be consolidated in the short term.

Future forecast: the cost of raw materials has fluctuated this ten days. The main factor for the stability of polyacrylamide market is that its downstream demand is flat, the market spot inventory is sufficient, and the transaction is general. It is expected that the future market will remain stable.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose slightly in June. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2661.11 yuan / ton, up 0.08% from the price of 2658.893 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 1.27% year-on-year.

In June, the price of fluorite rose slightly, and the on-site operation was general. Due to the blocked transportation of fluorite supply in some regions, the on-site spot fluorite was tight, the operating rate of fluorite devices in the North rose slowly, the on-site transaction atmosphere rose, and the price of fluorite rose slightly. Some units of domestic Southern fluorite manufacturers started up and restarted, the start-up of mines and flotation units in the site increased, the delivery of goods in the fluorite site was in good condition, some small factories were shut down, and the market price of fluorite rose slightly. In June, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price fell slightly, but the downstream terminal was mainly purchased on demand. By the end of the month, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The domestic fluorite price rose slightly in June.

The downstream hydrofluoric acid market price of fluorite fell slightly this month. As of the end of the month, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 11640 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.26% in June. The decline of hydrofluoric acid market price has a certain negative impact on the upstream fluorite market, and the affected rise of fluorite price is limited.

The price of downstream refrigerant products remains low, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field remains low. Recently, the sales of the automotive industry has declined month on month, and the refrigerant market has not changed much. In terms of demand, the refrigerant industry mainly purchases on demand, and the refrigerant industry market has declined slightly. In the refrigerant market as a whole, the market is mainly declining, and the price trend of chloroform is declining, which makes the cost of the refrigerant industry decline. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 has dropped slightly. The main manufacturers of refrigerants are still not operating well. The market supply is normal, but the demand is general. The demand in R22 market application field is poor, and the enterprise quotation has declined slightly. Up to now, the R22 market quotation is in the range of 16000-17000 yuan / ton. The price of R134a in China rose slightly while the price of trichloroethylene remained low with limited cost support. The market price of R134a rose slightly and the focus of trading was low. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 18000-22000 yuan / ton. The high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise is eager to ship, and the actual transaction is mostly profitable. The downstream refrigerant market is depressed, so the fluorite price has little increase.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry remains depressed, but there are many enterprise devices restarted in the later stage. In addition, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the market is declining, and the negative factors affect it. In addition, the supply of fluorite in Inner Mongolia is increasing. Chen Ling, an analyst at the business agency, believes that it is difficult for the fluorite market price to rise in the short term, and the fluorite price may remain volatile.