Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been relatively strong, with most spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13350 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+2.30% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has recently declined. The upstream methanol market is weak, and the price of formaldehyde is basically following the decline in methanol. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work in downstream panel factories has been poor, and the atmosphere of negotiations on site has been weak. The formaldehyde market has mainly declined, providing moderate support for the cost of POM.

In terms of supply:

After the holiday, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained generally stable, with an overall load rate of over 83%. Most companies have low inventory positions and have not experienced any accumulation of inventory. Some POM devices will resume work in the future, but overall, the impact on supply pressure is limited, and the supply side has a strong support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

Recently, downstream POM enterprises in China have not fully resumed work before the holiday, and on-site consumption has not been fully launched. With the return of terminal enterprises in the future and the urgent need for stocking, there is still room for a warming up in the trading atmosphere. In addition, there is a speculative atmosphere on the market, and overall, there is an expectation of a stronger demand side, which increases the expectation of spot price support for POM.

Future Market Forecast

In the week after the holiday, the POM market trend is relatively strong. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is at a high level, and the inventory position of enterprises is low. The supply side pressure has not yet appeared, and the pricing operation of manufacturers tends to increase and support the market. It will take some time for downstream work to fully resume, and it is expected that the procurement operation will expand. It is expected that the POM market will continue to strengthen in the future.

Market Overview: According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of February 2, 2024, the reference price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton or 1.40% compared to January 27, 2024 (reference price of diethylene glycol was 5730 yuan/ton).

This week’s market situation: The domestic diethylene glycol market fluctuated and declined this week (1.27-2.2). The atmosphere of the Spring Festival is strong, and the domestic diethylene glycol market has experienced a narrow decline this week. The number of arrivals to the port within the week is average, with low inventory fluctuations. Downstream stocking has ended, and the shipment volume has decreased significantly. Downstream unsaturated resin factories have concentrated their holidays this week, resulting in a significant decline in production. Polyester production has also decreased to a certain extent. Market trading sentiment has cooled down, prices have fluctuated and declined, and the negotiation atmosphere has weakened, with few transactions. As of the close of this Thursday, Jiangsu spot prices closed at 5640-5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; The delivery price of spot goods in South China closed at 5710-5720 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 150 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Currently, the main downstream unsaturated resins are mostly shut down, and there is a slight demand for polyester polyurethane during the pre holiday consolidation stage. The lower reaches of South China have basically closed, and the transactions of the holders have come to a close; The demand margin in the East China market is insufficient, and operators are waiting for the market to close, and trading sentiment will gradually cool down. However, the current supply of diethylene glycol is stable, and the supply and demand structure is loose. According to analysts from Shengyishe, the recent trend of domestic diethylene glycol spot prices has loosened, and there is further room for market pressure to fall back.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have recently bottomed out. On February 4th, the rare earth index was 398 points, a decrease of 60.48% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 46.86% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

This week, the domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have remained stable; As of the 4th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 500000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price remained stable; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 400000 yuan/ton, and the price trend has remained stable this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 405000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price is stable; The price of neodymium metal is 517500 yuan/ton, and the price trend has remained stable this week; The price of praseodymium metal is 550000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium oxide is 407500 yuan/ton, and the weekly price trend is temporarily stable.

The domestic light rare earth market has bottomed out, and downstream enterprises have increased their holidays recently. There have been fewer transactions in the light rare earth market, and the new orders are average. The overall rare earth market is stable at a low level. Recently, some production enterprises have gradually taken a break, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material enterprises have also started to take a break, with production enterprises mainly consuming inventory. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to survive, and the price of metal praseodymium neodymium is still inverted, with poor transaction performance. However, as the year-end approaches, the light rare earth market has recently stopped falling and stabilized.

According to statistics, in December 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.172 million and 1.191 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.5% and 46.4%, and a market share of 37.7%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 37.9%, and a market share of 31.6%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in December were 3438.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to December was 52306.5 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a low market situation for light rare earths.

Market forecast: In the short term, as the year-end approaches, magnetic material companies will gradually begin to take a break, and it is expected that the rare earth market prices will remain stable at a low level in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 31st, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate was 43000 yuan/ton. Overall, lithium iron phosphate showed a broad downward trend in January, with the mainstream price currently around 43000 yuan/ton. The price in early January was 46000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of January was 43000 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 6.52% for the entire month of January, putting pressure on both cost and demand. Lithium iron phosphate is moving forward under pressure.

In January, the price of lithium iron phosphate mainly experienced a narrow decline, with an overall price drop of 6.52%, reaching 3000 yuan/ton. Currently, lithium iron phosphate is showing a continuous downward trend, mainly influenced by upstream lithium carbonate, passively following the decline. Upstream lithium carbonate is experiencing a cliff like decline, and lithium iron phosphate faces enormous cost pressure. The cost side is almost unsupported, and downstream demand is significantly insufficient. The demand for power vehicles is slowing down, and the demand is insufficient. Coupled with cost pressure, lithium iron phosphate manufacturers continue to lower prices, resulting in a significant decline. The operating load of enterprises continues to decrease, making it difficult for industry demand to improve and market sentiment is low.

Commodity index: On February 1st, the chemical index was 866 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that the market for lithium iron phosphate is mainly in a downward trend, and it is difficult for lithium iron phosphate to have a turning point in the short term.

In January, the domestic MIBK market experienced a significant decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the market reported a price of 15033 yuan/ton on January 1st, but dropped to 13666 yuan/ton on January 31st, a decrease of 9.09% for the month.

In early January, with tight spot resources, traders pushed up their offers. In the latter half of the year, with lower acceptance of high priced MIBK by downstream and intermediaries, a weak buying atmosphere, coupled with insufficient confidence in the future market, traders increased their enthusiasm for shipping, and prices gradually declined.

The raw material acetone market has risen narrowly. As of now, the negotiated price of acetone in the East China region is between 6950-7000 yuan/ton. As the holiday approaches, the trading atmosphere in the market is average. At the beginning of the month, due to the shortage of port supply, domestic factories are still in a loss making state, and traders are firm in their offers. After the market surged, with insufficient downstream demand support, the market quickly fell and transactions were flat.

From a terminal perspective, the intention to purchase large orders has decreased, and the demand is mostly for small orders to follow up. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and tend to operate targeted contracts, but traders are holding onto the market and reluctant to sell, resulting in a significant increase in small order prices.

It is expected that the weak and volatile operation will be the main trend in February. As the spring break approaches, the trading enthusiasm of manufacturers in the market is not high. Factories will mainly deliver orders, and inventory pressure is not high. It is expected that factory inventory may rise during the Spring Festival period, and downstream demand for replenishment will be the main trend after the holiday. There may be a slight increase but the cycle is relatively short. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream work and the production of new equipment in Anhui.

Introduction: Neopentanediol (NPG), a white crystalline solid, odorless, and hygroscopic. It is mainly used to produce plasticizers, surfactants, insulating materials, printing inks, polymerization inhibitors, synthetic aviation lubricant oil additives, etc. of unsaturated resins, oil-free alkyd resins, polyurethane foam plastics and elastomers; Meanwhile, neopentyl glycol is also an excellent solvent that can be used for the selective separation of aromatic hydrocarbons and cycloalkane hydrocarbons; Its amino baking paint has good light retention and does not turn yellow; It can also be used as a raw material for producing stabilizers and insecticides.

The market situation of new pentanediol in 2023 has fluctuated widely

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic market for new pentanediol in 2023 has experienced ups and downs, with a wide range of fluctuations. The average price at the beginning of the year was 9133.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 9800 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 7.30%. From the price trend chart of neopentyl glycol, it can be seen that the highest price of neopentyl glycol in 2023 was 11200 yuan/ton in early March, and the lowest price was 9133.33 yuan/ton in early January, with a maximum annual amplitude of 22.63%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of new pentanediol increased more than decreased, and the market trend showed a first rise, then fall, then rise and then fall. The highest increase was 16.14%, and the largest decrease was 8.95% in June. In the first quarter of 2023, the downstream operating rate increased after the holiday, and demand was good. The price increased from 9133.33 yuan/ton on January 1st to 10666.67 yuan/ton on March 31st, an increase of 16.79%. In the second quarter, the upstream isobutyraldehyde price plummeted significantly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market was average, and demand weakened. The market had a strong bearish atmosphere, and the price of neopentyl glycol dropped significantly. The price dropped from 10666.67 yuan/ton on April 1st to 9500 yuan/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 10.94%. In the third quarter, the market circulation of goods decreased, and manufacturers had a strong intention to raise prices. The price increased from 9500 yuan/ton on July 1st to 10450 yuan/ton on September 30th, an increase of 10.00%. In the fourth quarter, the price of isobutyraldehyde plummeted, cost support weakened, and the price of neopentyl glycol fluctuated and fell. The price dropped from 10450 yuan/ton on October 1st to 9800 yuan/ton on December 31st, a decrease of 6.22%.

How will the market situation of new pentanediol develop in 2024?

From the perspective of production capacity: Data shows that in the first half of 2023, the domestic new pentanediol industry added 100000 tons of production capacity. Currently, the total domestic production capacity has reached 680000 tons, with a growth rate of 17.2%. Despite the continuous increase in downstream demand, the satellite chemistry and BASF Zhanjiang integrated base still have plans for production and capacity expansion. It is expected that the production capacity of new pentanediol will exceed 700000 tons by 2024.

From the perspective of market demand, the development of the polyester industry has slowed down in the past two years, but the terminal coating industry is slowly recovering. The tone of the national real estate stabilization policy remains unchanged, which is beneficial for the paint industry. At the same time, under environmental protection policies, the country’s control of VOC emissions is becoming increasingly strict, and the powder paint industry has entered a period of rapid growth. There is still room for growth in the development of the new pentanediol industry.

Looking at the future: With increasing demand, the price center of new pentanediol may shift upwards in 2024

From January 19 to January 26, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased, with prices this week at 90750 yuan/ton, up 1.97%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been continuously rising in recent times.

This week’s European strategic small metal antimony price situation (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ January 19th/ January 26th/ Rise and fall

European small metal antimony/ 12450./12750./+300

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has risen, reaching $12750/ton as of January 26th, up $300/ton. Currently, supply is tight and the market atmosphere is strong.

The antimony ingot market has been continuously rising since mid December, reaching 90750 yuan/ton this week, breaking through the 90000 yuan/ton mark. From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the increasing difficulty of importing antimony ore from overseas, the domestic supply at the mining end is still tight, and the reluctance of smelters to sell is further strengthened. The mentality of price support is strong, and as overseas prices continue to rise, the overall sentiment of the domestic spot market is also strong. In the future, Business Society predicts that antimony ingots will continue to maintain a slight upward trend in the short term and continue until the end of January. As antimony ingot manufacturers increase their production, this increase will gradually come to an end.

The price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ January 19th/ January 26th/ Rise and fall

99.5% antimony trioxide./77500./77500/-

99.8% antimony trioxide./79500./79500/-

The antimony oxide market is currently operating steadily this week. At present, the domestic spot market atmosphere is good, and overseas sales are showing positive performance. Antimony oxide enterprises have been actively inquiring recently, and the market supply is tight, resulting in a strong market atmosphere.

Related data:

On January 28th, the base metal index was 1183 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 26.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 84.27% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 28th, the non-ferrous index was 1104 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 81.88% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 4th week of 2024 (1.22-1.26), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (3.95%), nickel (2.95%), and zinc (2.61%). There are a total of 7 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium oxide (-1.03%), lead (-0.79%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-0.62%). The average increase and decrease this week was 0.49%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 833 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 883 yuan/ton on January 29th. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 6.00% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate has increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the domestic market price of ammonium sulfate was lowered. Foreign orders are relatively low, domestic market demand is poor, downstream delivery capacity is weakened, and market bearish sentiment is strong. In mid January, the bidding price for ammonium sulfate significantly increased. The ammonium sulfate market has seen an increase in inquiries and an improved trading atmosphere. The rise in international urea prices has indirectly benefited the ammonium sulfate market. In late January, the ammonium sulfate market saw a narrow consolidation and operation. Export orders are supported, with downstream restocking mainly based on demand. As of January 29th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 810 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 890-930 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from October 30, 2023 to January 22, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle has seen mixed ups and downs. There was a significant increase in January, with the maximum increase being 8.62% in the week ending January 15th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the ammonium sulfate market has recently seen a slight consolidation and operation. Downstream on-demand procurement, market transactions are still acceptable. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, ammonium sulfate enterprises have a clear attitude towards shipping. It is expected that the trend of ammonium sulfate market will slightly decrease in the short term.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market has shown an upward trend this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on January 26th, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 20666.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.65% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market turned sideways, with low production line operating rates. The overall industry load was around 61%, unchanged from last week. The supply of goods in the market was tight during the week, and the inventory position was average. The pricing operation of enterprises was increased, and the support from suppliers was still sufficient. Downstream textile, electrical, and modification enterprises mainly maintain production as their main source of goods, with pre holiday stocking centered around weak and rigid demand, and weak support for spot goods on the demand side. On the upstream side, the price of hexamethylene diamine has been consolidating and running, but the news of international major factories raising prices in the future has been implemented, boosting market confidence. The market price of adipic acid has risen with the rise of upstream pure benzene, providing stronger support for PA66. Overall, the support from the cost side for the PA66 market is relatively strong. At present, the market supply and demand are weak, and the price of PA66 is mainly guided by the cost side.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 rose over the weekend after a sideways trend this week. The prices of raw materials have both increased, providing stronger support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is still acceptable. The demand side still focuses on maintaining production and has poor feedback on high priced sources of goods. It is expected that the weak supply-demand pattern before the holiday will be difficult to change, and the main positive news for PA66 in the future will still come from the cost side, which may continue to be strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda was weak this week, with an average market price of 2591.8 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2509.8 yuan/ton on the weekend, a price drop of 3.16% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. On January 21st, the baking soda commodity index was 166.59, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.36% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 88.73% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is weak and downstream markets are purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is strong, with a mainstream market quotation of around 2200-2700 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the upstream soda ash prices for baking soda have been weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2500 yuan/ton, and the average market price on the weekend was 2440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4%, a decrease of 8.48% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, with weak performance in the upstream raw material soda ash sector. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other sectors of baking soda have been purchasing on demand in recent times, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will be weak in the future, depending on downstream market demand.