From January 19 to January 26, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased, with prices this week at 90750 yuan/ton, up 1.97%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been continuously rising in recent times.

This week’s European strategic small metal antimony price situation (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ January 19th/ January 26th/ Rise and fall

European small metal antimony/ 12450./12750./+300

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has risen, reaching $12750/ton as of January 26th, up $300/ton. Currently, supply is tight and the market atmosphere is strong.

The antimony ingot market has been continuously rising since mid December, reaching 90750 yuan/ton this week, breaking through the 90000 yuan/ton mark. From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the increasing difficulty of importing antimony ore from overseas, the domestic supply at the mining end is still tight, and the reluctance of smelters to sell is further strengthened. The mentality of price support is strong, and as overseas prices continue to rise, the overall sentiment of the domestic spot market is also strong. In the future, Business Society predicts that antimony ingots will continue to maintain a slight upward trend in the short term and continue until the end of January. As antimony ingot manufacturers increase their production, this increase will gradually come to an end.

The price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ January 19th/ January 26th/ Rise and fall

99.5% antimony trioxide./77500./77500/-

99.8% antimony trioxide./79500./79500/-

The antimony oxide market is currently operating steadily this week. At present, the domestic spot market atmosphere is good, and overseas sales are showing positive performance. Antimony oxide enterprises have been actively inquiring recently, and the market supply is tight, resulting in a strong market atmosphere.

Related data:

On January 28th, the base metal index was 1183 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 26.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 84.27% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 28th, the non-ferrous index was 1104 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 81.88% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 4th week of 2024 (1.22-1.26), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (3.95%), nickel (2.95%), and zinc (2.61%). There are a total of 7 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium oxide (-1.03%), lead (-0.79%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-0.62%). The average increase and decrease this week was 0.49%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 833 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 883 yuan/ton on January 29th. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 6.00% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate has increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the domestic market price of ammonium sulfate was lowered. Foreign orders are relatively low, domestic market demand is poor, downstream delivery capacity is weakened, and market bearish sentiment is strong. In mid January, the bidding price for ammonium sulfate significantly increased. The ammonium sulfate market has seen an increase in inquiries and an improved trading atmosphere. The rise in international urea prices has indirectly benefited the ammonium sulfate market. In late January, the ammonium sulfate market saw a narrow consolidation and operation. Export orders are supported, with downstream restocking mainly based on demand. As of January 29th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 810 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 890-930 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from October 30, 2023 to January 22, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle has seen mixed ups and downs. There was a significant increase in January, with the maximum increase being 8.62% in the week ending January 15th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the ammonium sulfate market has recently seen a slight consolidation and operation. Downstream on-demand procurement, market transactions are still acceptable. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, ammonium sulfate enterprises have a clear attitude towards shipping. It is expected that the trend of ammonium sulfate market will slightly decrease in the short term.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market has shown an upward trend this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on January 26th, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 20666.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.65% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market turned sideways, with low production line operating rates. The overall industry load was around 61%, unchanged from last week. The supply of goods in the market was tight during the week, and the inventory position was average. The pricing operation of enterprises was increased, and the support from suppliers was still sufficient. Downstream textile, electrical, and modification enterprises mainly maintain production as their main source of goods, with pre holiday stocking centered around weak and rigid demand, and weak support for spot goods on the demand side. On the upstream side, the price of hexamethylene diamine has been consolidating and running, but the news of international major factories raising prices in the future has been implemented, boosting market confidence. The market price of adipic acid has risen with the rise of upstream pure benzene, providing stronger support for PA66. Overall, the support from the cost side for the PA66 market is relatively strong. At present, the market supply and demand are weak, and the price of PA66 is mainly guided by the cost side.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 rose over the weekend after a sideways trend this week. The prices of raw materials have both increased, providing stronger support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is still acceptable. The demand side still focuses on maintaining production and has poor feedback on high priced sources of goods. It is expected that the weak supply-demand pattern before the holiday will be difficult to change, and the main positive news for PA66 in the future will still come from the cost side, which may continue to be strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda was weak this week, with an average market price of 2591.8 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2509.8 yuan/ton on the weekend, a price drop of 3.16% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. On January 21st, the baking soda commodity index was 166.59, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.36% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 88.73% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is weak and downstream markets are purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is strong, with a mainstream market quotation of around 2200-2700 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the upstream soda ash prices for baking soda have been weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2500 yuan/ton, and the average market price on the weekend was 2440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4%, a decrease of 8.48% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, with weak performance in the upstream raw material soda ash sector. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other sectors of baking soda have been purchasing on demand in recent times, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will be weak in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide method SG5 fluctuated and fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic PVC price was 5550 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price was 5538 yuan/ton, with a 0.22% increase in price during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market prices fluctuated this week. At present, the spot market situation is still good, and the trading situation is average. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. Downstream just needs to pick up goods, considering that the end of the year is approaching, some small processing plants are considering a holiday. Downstream demand is slowing down, enterprise inventories are high, and actual transactions are cautious. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5280-5750 yuan/ton.

On January 18th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $73.95 per barrel, with an increase of $1.47 or 2.0%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.10 per barrel, an increase of $1.22 or 1.6%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have remained stable this week, with an average domestic price of 3000 yuan/ton. The upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall narrowly in late January, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that the PVC spot market has had average trading this week. The upstream calcium carbide is temporarily stable with average support. The downstream procurement situation is cautious, and the market has a general demand for PVC spot goods, mainly based on demand. It is expected that the PVC spot market will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of butyl rubber in the domestic market remained stable this week, with a market price of around 17675 yuan/ton as of the 12th.

High purity isobutylene raw material: Recently, international crude oil prices have fluctuated upwards, leading to a 0.9% increase in the price of high-purity isobutylene raw material.

In terms of demand: The domestic semi steel tire industry has a load rate of over 78% this week, while the full steel tire industry has a load rate of over 62%. The load rate of the steel tire industry is higher than last week.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that both the cost and demand sides of butyl rubber have good support, and it is expected that the butyl rubber market will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has fluctuated slightly recently. At the beginning of the month, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8560.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%. The price has increased by 2.50% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating and consolidating in the past three months, and this week’s market is still fluctuating within a small range. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, and cost support is still acceptable. Downstream demand has not improved, while styrene supply is relatively abundant, inventory decline is slow, and the rise is weak, with limited market fluctuations.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On January 8th, the price of pure benzene was 7413 yuan/ton. On Friday (January 12th), the price of pure benzene was 7480 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8% from last week and 7.39% from the same period last year. The pure benzene market in East China is still relatively active, with far month and month difference transactions being the main focus. Shandong’s low-priced sources of goods are trading actively, while the high priced sources of goods are trading less than expected.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9600 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average price of PS was 9566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% and a decrease of 1.71% compared to the same period last year. The cost support for PS is weak, and demand is weak. It is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) price will mainly fluctuate downward in the short term.

The EPS market has slightly increased this week, with an average price of 10000.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials at the beginning of the week and 10050.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. Upstream support has weakened, with a focus on market transactions. Terminal profits are meager, and buying follow-up is limited. Overall transactions are average, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market. Buying is mainly in demand.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices of various brands have adjusted narrowly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10662.5 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price level at the beginning of the month. In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, and due to supply pressure, some enterprises had a reduced load. This week, the operating rate of ABS aggregation enterprises has been lowered to below 68%, resulting in stable production and a decrease in inventory due to factory destocking operations. However, the improvement of the company’s profit situation is limited, and there is still pressure on the supply side.

In recent times, international oil prices have continued to rise, with good cost support. Downstream demand is strong for essential goods but weak for spot goods. Specifically, it depends on the market’s situation of buying at low prices before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the short-term volatility of the styrene market will mainly rise.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the first grade industrial potassium nitrate in Shanxi was reported at 5375 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and at 5325 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.93% and a month on month decrease of 2.74%. The current price has dropped by 9.94% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has declined, and it can be seen from the above chart that the recent potassium nitrate market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. The market price of raw material potassium chloride has declined, with poor cost support. Downstream demand generally maintains rigid procurement, and potassium nitrate manufacturers dispatch orders for shipment, resulting in a weak price decline. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 5100-5300 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market for potassium chloride and potassium chloride has declined. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with rigid demand procurement being the main focus. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has been weakly consolidating, with poor cost support and weak downstream procurement. It is expected that the potassium carbonate market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be watched.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region is temporarily stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China was 3016.67 yuan/ton, and the weekend price decreased by 18.83% year-on-year. On January 7th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 79.04, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 62.76% from the highest point in the cycle of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 42.44% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have remained stable this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has slightly declined, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal was around 1110 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, indicating insufficient cost support. The PVC market price has slightly increased this week, dropping from 5638 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5628 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.18%. Weekend prices fell by 8.56% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may experience a volatile decline in the future market

In mid to late January, the calcium carbide market may experience narrow fluctuations and decline. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, raw material blue charcoal prices have slightly declined, and cost support is insufficient. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline in mid to late January, with consolidation being the main trend.

High level consolidation of plasticizer DOTP this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the price of DOTP was 12210 yuan/ton, which decreased and then increased by 0.66% compared to December 29th, when the price of DOTP was 12130 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol first fell and then rose, and cost support still exists. Plasticizer enterprises have started to decline, and the price of DOTP has stabilized at a high level after the holiday.

After the holiday, the operating rate of DOTP enterprises decreased from 60% before the holiday to less than 50% after the holiday. The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises decreased, the supply of DOTP decreased, and the support for DOTP increase increased, resulting in a decrease in demand for raw materials such as isooctanol and phthalic anhydride.

After the holiday, the price of isooctanol first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the price of isooctanol was 12962.50 yuan/ton, which was a decrease and then an increase of 0.10% compared to the price of isooctanol on December 29th, which was 12950 yuan/ton. This week, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers has fallen, and large plasticizer manufacturers are in urgent need of procurement. The transaction volume of isooctanol is poor, and the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient. After the holiday, the main manufacturers of isooctanol are offering discounts for sales, but the price of isooctanol has decreased. As DOTP enterprises start operating lower, the price of DOTP has increased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol has increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride continues to rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 5th, the quotation for phthalic anhydride was 7687.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.33% compared to the quotation of 7662.50 yuan/ton on December 29th. After the holiday, phthalic anhydride continued to rise, coupled with an increase in the price of ortho benzene, the phthalic anhydride market rebounded, and the cost of DOP increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that after the holiday, the price of isooctanol first fell and then rose, while the price of phthalic anhydride continued to rise. The support for the rising cost of plasticizers still exists; The production of DOTP enterprises has decreased, the supply of plasticizers has decreased, and the price of isooctanol has stopped falling and risen. In the future, cost support for DOTP still exists, and the supply of plasticizer DOTP is decreasing with weak demand. It is expected that DOTP prices will remain strong and consolidate at a high level in the future.