According to the bulk list data of business society, as of July 26, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14700 yuan / ton, down 4.55% compared with the price on July 20, up 12.50% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, and up 13.66% compared with the price on June 26.

The epichlorohydrin market rose strongly in the middle and early days of July, with an increase of 17.86%. Since late July, the market situation of epichlorohydrin has dropped, and the tight spot supply situation in the market continues, but the demand side is depressed, the downstream market entry mood is cautious, the market buying mood is not high, the wait-and-see mentality is strong, the shipment of goods holders is weak, the low price offer appears in the market, and the overall atmosphere is light.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market turned around and continued to rise this week (7.19-7.23). At the beginning of the week, the market was 7673 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7809 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.66%.

For downstream epoxy resin, as of July 23, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China had declined as a whole, and the high-end offer had declined significantly. The mainstream of the local market negotiated the ex factory price of 32000 / T barrel.

Business society epichlorohydrin analysts believe that, in general, the current downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, mainly on demand, the mentality continues to be cautious, and the lack of demand is still a constraint. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may run weakly in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the domestic polyester filament market has maintained a rising trend this week, including the quotation of polyester POY (150D / 48F) in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 7800-8050 yuan / ton, polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) at 9300-9600 yuan / ton, and polyester FDY (150D / 96F) at 7900-8200 yuan / ton.

Rise and fall of average price of polyester filament market this week, unit: yuan / ton

product 2021-7-19 2021-7-23 Rise and fall Year on year rise and fall

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) eight thousand and twenty-five eight thousand and seventy-five 0.62% 45.38%

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) seven thousand seven hundred and seventy-seven seven thousand and nine hundred 1.57% 56.67%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) nine thousand three hundred and sixty-five nine thousand four hundred and eighty-eight 1.31% 43.60%

The PTA Market for raw materials was opened on July 22, and the main futures contracts rose strongly to 5330 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.00%. The average price in the spot market was 5361 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.73% and a year-on-year increase of 51.83%. Under high temperature, the demand for polyester is not weak in the off-season, and the operating rate is close to 90%. The maintenance of PTA unit remained high, which superimposed the impact of recent typhoon weather in East China on its transportation, and exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in some regions in the short term. At the same time, the oil price stabilized and rebounded, and the support at the support end increased, leading to the rise of PTA market.

Due to the improvement of downstream fabrics in autumn and winter, early preparation and better expectation in the second half of the year, in fact, the weaving end has already begun to rebound, and the startup rate is rising sharply. At present, the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 79.63%, higher than the level in the same period last year, and the weaving Market is getting warmer locally. Among them, autumn orders in Shengze area are issued sporadically. Due to the rise in the price of raw materials, some weaving factories produce in advance. Foreign trade orders can be issued in August, and subsequent foreign trade orders may continue to be issued. The delivery of low-cost grey cloth in Changxing weaving Market is fast. A small number of domestic orders are issued in autumn, and foreign trade orders are issued one after another. Some factories say that the orders are 2-3 weeks, and the orders are more, up to about 4 weeks.

Business analysts believe that near the end of the month and with the launch of autumn orders in the textile market, the atmosphere for raw material procurement has improved, but they are cautious in chasing the rise. PTA raw material will continue to warm in the short term under the tightening expectation. It is still necessary to close the dynamics of oil injection Market and guard against the risk of price decline after typhoon weather speculation. It is expected that in the short term, supported by favorable costs, the price of polyester filament will remain the main player, but the increase will be narrowed.

1、 Price trend

The price of toluene fell this week, according to the data from the business news agency’s block list. On July 11, the price of toluene was 5860 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (July 18) was 5780 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton or 1.37% compared with last week; It was 69.5% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the early stage, the toluene market was driven by the rise of crude oil, and the demand remained weak. This week, the international crude oil showed a decline as a whole, and Sinopec’s listing price was lowered, which aggravated the wait-and-see situation of toluene Market. In terms of external market, as of July 16, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 756 US dollars / ton, up 15 US dollars / ton, or 2.02%, from July 9.

In terms of crude oil, it is reported that OPEC + has reached an agreement or will further increase production from August. In addition, the spread of the mutated virus also depressed oil prices, and crude oil showed a downward trend this week. On July 9, Brent fell by $1.96 per barrel, or 2.59%; WTI fell $2.75 per barrel, or 3.69%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable this week, with domestic goods at 14333.33 yuan / ton, up 36.51% over the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is deadlocked in consolidation operation, the atmosphere in the market is rather wait-and-see, the enthusiasm of the downstream is not high, the purchase is mainly rigid demand, the offer of the goods holder is high, and the intention to sell is not high, and the market transaction is general.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable for two consecutive weeks this week, at 7100 yuan / ton, up 47.92% year-on-year. As of July 16, the closing prices in Asia were US $903-905 / T FOB Korea and US $921-923 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Downstream demand maintains just demand, crude oil has downward pressure, and toluene is expected to hold a stalemate next week. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline blending market) on toluene prices.

Recent trend of sulfuric acid price

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of sulfuric acid Market in Shandong rose this week, from 643.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 670.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 4.15%, 56.73% year on year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 104.28 on July 16.

Downstream market boosted, purchasing intention strengthened

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose this week, the inventory of manufacturers was general, and the downstream demand was good. The quotation of Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid at the weekend is 730 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 630 yuan / ton this weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 650 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has been consolidated at a high level recently, with the quoted price of 1646.67 yuan / ton, which is 164.17% higher than that in the same period of last year, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the bromine market in the lower reaches was consolidated at a high level, with the quoted price of about 45300.00 yuan / ton this week, up 71.96% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products have a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

After a small shock fell

In late July, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong may fluctuate and fall slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. However, the price of bromine in the lower reaches has begun to decline slightly, the purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the sulfuric acid market or small shocks down.

Commodity: SC crude oil

Price: 427.9 yuan / ton

Analysis: on Monday, crude oil fell significantly in the internal market, with main contract 08 closing at 427.9 yuan / ton, down 2.42%. Overnight crude oil remained weak, hovering at a low level. Main reasons: at the macro level, the US Federal Reserve is wavering under high inflation, and the US CPI rose more than expected in June. The market is generally worried about the tightening of monetary policy caused by high inflation pressure. At the same time, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have implemented policies and reached an agreement on increasing production. The market expects that supply will increase. Under the severe trend of multi-national epidemic situation, the implementation of blockade measures to suppress fuel demand, etc.

Forecast: the business community believes that the recent crude oil market will be affected by the news, which will aggravate the shock. In the medium term, the epidemic has repeatedly reduced the demand for crude oil, and the future supply is not optimistic. Shale oil in the United States and OPEC oil producing countries are increasing production. With the passage of the North American driving season, there may be downward risks in oil prices, so it is recommended to wait and see carefully.

The magnesium market continued to rise this week. The price of magnesium rose steadily at the beginning of the week. The market transactions followed one after another. The market trading was the direct reason for the rise of magnesium price. As of July 16, the market quotation of magnesium ingots in mainstream areas in China has exceeded 200 million / T. As of July 16, the specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 20100-20200 yuan / ton; The ex factory cash including tax in Ningxia is 20100-20200 yuan / ton; In Taiyuan area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 20200-20300 yuan / ton; In Wenxi area, the ex factory cash including tax is 20300-20400 yuan / ton.

Market analysis

From the perspective of raw materials, the high cost of ferrosilicon and coke still exists, and the pressure of raw material cost of magnesium plant still exists.

From the perspective of inventory, some magnesium plants are in the maintenance period. Due to the environmental protection inspection in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, and the active trading in the downstream market, the inventory of magnesium plants is released and the spot quantity is small.

From the perspective of demand, the downstream customers are affected by the sentiment of “buy up but not buy down”, the market transaction is hot, and the downstream end replenishment is positive.

Future forecast

From the perspective of supply and demand, at present, the cost of raw material market is still high and stable, the inventory in the spot market is tight, and the downstream customers are actively purchasing. in summary. Business community analysts believe that the downstream demand has been released a few days ago. In the case of high magnesium price, the downstream demand will be reduced compared with before. In the short term, the magnesium ingot Market will have limited rise, but still maintain a strong operation.

Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, in early July, the domestic ABS market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the spot prices of various brands fluctuated. As of July 12, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 17800 yuan / ton, up 0.56% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month and 34.34% compared with the same period last year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw material styrene, the domestic Styrene Market accepted the early rebound market, and the spot price dropped slightly in the near future. Crude oil callback, benzene narrow price reduction, ethylene stable, styrene cost side did not change significantly. At present, domestic styrene plant restart and maintenance coexist, new production delay, production increase is expected to be reduced. Under the long short game, styrene is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term.

Upstream butadiene: in early July, the domestic butadiene market continued the upward trend in June. Affected by the rise of the external market, the domestic supplier prices strengthened, and merchants’ offers followed the rise. Coupled with the gradual recovery of downstream construction, support middlemen offer up, the market is difficult to find low-cost sources. Although some downstream devices restart, the poor performance of the terminal industry leads to the caution of downstream users. Business analysts expect the market to sort out slightly.

The recent ABS cost side market is fair, and the overall support for ABS cost side is relatively stable. In terms of enterprise load, the maintenance of Shandong Jianghai and Jihua has not been resumed; According to the news, Tongliao chemical overhaul plan is about to start, the loss of production capacity caused some brand prices to rise. The market supply has been tightened, and there is a partial shortage in East China. In addition, the terminal enterprises’ demand for goods has increased recently, and the trading volume has increased, so the spot price has gained some support.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in early July, the ABS spot market fluctuated, the trend of raw materials was acceptable, and the support for ABS cost was relatively stable. At present, the lower reaches of the industry show demand for goods, enterprises and businesses have strong willingness to support prices, and the on-site inquiry and actual trading have increased compared with the previous period. In addition, the supply of some brands is less, and the market is supported. It is expected that the ABS spot market will be strong in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price mainly fluctuated in a narrow range this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 68670 yuan / ton, up 0.08% from 68616.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 18.49% from the beginning of the year, and up 35.66% from the same period last year.

Since late June, copper prices have fluctuated between 67000-70000 yuan / ton. On July 5, the first batch of 20000 tons of copper was put on the market at the price of 67700 yuan / ton by the State Reserve Bureau. To some extent, the government’s dumping of reserves affected the rise of copper prices, but the overall impact was small.

With the popularization of vaccines, overseas copper supply has recovered from the epidemic, and the release of newly expanded copper production capacity in 2021 will be gradually reflected in the second half of the year. However, due to the political risks of Chile and Peru, the authorities’ attitude towards mining will affect the decision-making of capital expenditure of mining enterprises.

The output of refined copper in May was 866000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%; From January to may, the cumulative output was 4.244 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 14.1%. In July, there was less maintenance in the refinery, the processing fee rebounded, the profit was fair, and the output of refined copper was expected to increase.

There was no significant increase in demand, and the copper output in May was 1.838 million tons, down 10.3% year on year; From January to may, the cumulative output was 8.206 million tons, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to 3.5%.

To sum up, the macro situation in July was relatively stable, the supply of copper was gradually relaxed, the demand was relatively light, and the continuous rise of copper price showed insufficient momentum. Copper prices are expected to remain range bound in the short term.

Corn price arrangement, the carrier is mostly in a loss state, the main production of fuel, food inventory is not high, price sorting operation. According to the sample data monitored by the business society, as of July 6, the price of domestic ethanol market was 6962 yuan / ton, with the price rising 2.20% on a month basis, and the price increased by 15.32% year on year.

Domestic ethanol market is weak finishing. The price of small factories in Northeast China is weak under the positive attitude of delivery, the price of East China Shandong is weak, the price is weak under the market weak mentality, and the price in Henan is stable.

Corn prices continued to pick up from the raw materials. With the price of corn rising, the arrival of deep processing in the production area has not increased significantly, trade inventory pressure is still in place, demand support is weak, and short-term prices continue to fluctuate. With the further decline of domestic corn inventory, the consumption of corn at the demand end continues to increase. Downstream, the market range of ethyl acetate fluctuated, and it was raised from 8800-8950 yuan / ton of cash. The market price has been low, but the mainstream manufacturers are shipping smoothly at low prices, and the market is waiting for a while.

The latest price trends of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, category, price

Guangxi Honey alcohol 7300-7350 yuan / ton

Guangxi 95% alcohol 6950-7200 yuan / ton

Guangxi Anhydrous ethanol 7700-7900 yuan / ton

Guangdong Cassava alcohol About 7150 yuan / ton

Guangdong 95% ethanol 6950-7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong Ethanol of anhydrous cassava 7750-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Universal 6700-6750 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn superior 6900-7500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn is anhydrous 7500 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu Universal 7000-7050 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu Universal 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Cassava universal 6900-6950 yuan / ton

Anhui anhydrous 7650-7700 yuan / ton

Henan region Superior 6830-6850 yuan / ton tax included

Henan region Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton tax included

Hebei Province Universal 6900-6950 yuan / ton

Hebei Province Coal is anhydrous 7600-7700 yuan / ton

Sichuan Corn alcohol Tax included about 7550-7650 yuan / ton

Yunnan Molasses alcohol 6950-7100 yuan / ton

Yunnan Cassava alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Province Corn alcohol universal 6350 yuan / ton tax included

Jilin area General alcohol 6450 yuan / ton tax included

The price of corn is weak, and the price of cassava is weak under the condition of the small domestic purchase quantity. The enterprise may be weak because of the weak demand downstream. The ethanol analysts of business agency expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market is mainly in weak consolidation.

Recent trend of sulfuric acid price

As can be seen from the above figure, the distribution price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week, with the quoted price of 603.33 yuan / ton, up 101.11% compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 93.90 on July 2.

Downstream market boosted, purchasing intention strengthened

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the inventory of manufacturers is general, and the downstream demand is better. At the end of the week, Heze Jiangyuan quoted 630 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 530 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 650 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has risen steadily in recent years, with the quotation rising from 1633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1643.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.61%, 151.53% year-on-year compared with the same period last year, and the cost support is good. However, the bromine market in the lower reaches was consolidated at a high level, and the quoted price dropped from 46062.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 45875.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.41%, up 71.32% year on year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products have a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

After a small shock up

In the first ten days of July, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong may rise slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the price of bromine in the lower reaches has also begun to rise. The purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches has been strengthened, and the product trend has risen under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or small shock rise.