According to the data of business agency, as of January 23, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5330.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.14% from 5270.00 yuan / ton on January 17.

On January 23, the fuel oil commodity index was 107.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.19% from the highest point of 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 134.27% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rising price of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of January 23, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5250 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 5350 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 5300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5400 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price rose this week, and the oil price reached a nearly seven-year high, mainly due to the expectation of tight supply. Previously, the transportation was temporarily interrupted due to the fire of the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil growth forecast for 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, with investors believing that the Fed is not as hawkish as expected, and the oil price continues to rebound. The survey results released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the eighth consecutive week last week. It is generally expected that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventories. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further aggravates supply concerns, and oil prices are supported.

Singapore’s increased fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of January 19, Singapore’s fuel oil depot had 21.199 million barrels, a decrease of 1.114 million barrels over last week. The inventory of medium distillates was 8.525 million barrels, an increase of 1.355 million barrels over last week. The light fraction inventory was 13.534 million barrels, down 118000 barrels from last week. As of the weekend, the monthly difference back structure of 10ppm diesel paper goods in February / March reached around $1.43/barrel, slightly lower than last week.

Future forecast: the recent high international crude oil price and the rise in the price of raw materials in the ship fuel market support the ship fuel market. The market has strong upward sentiment, but the terminal procurement is light, the transaction just needs to be purchased, and it is mainly wait-and-see. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 5250-5400 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 5300-5450 yuan / ton. It is expected that the overall fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline continued to rise this week and stabilized after a wide rise in prices. On January 14, the price in Shandong was 11000-11220 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11200-11300 yuan / ton; On January 21, the price in Shandong was 11600-11820 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12000 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.03% over last week and 49.37% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. On Friday (January 21), the price of pure benzene was 7600-7750 yuan / ton (average price 7680 yuan / ton), and the average price increased by 150 yuan / ton, or 1.99%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 70.67%. Crude oil rose continuously, with strong cost support, good negotiation enthusiasm in the pure benzene market, and the price rose. However, with the Spring Festival approaching, the downstream pre festival goods preparation basically ended, the buying decreased, the selling increased, and the high price of pure benzene fell. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton, which also gave positive support to the market.

Nitric acid: the price of nitric acid was stable this week. On Friday (January 21), the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2183.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 8.26% compared with the same period last year.

Tight supply: last weekend, Dongying Huatai plant stopped briefly and restarted half load operation on January 20. Shanxi Tianji aniline plant maintained half load operation, and the aniline market supply was tight. High cost: the cost price is high, pure benzene increased by 1.99% in the week, and the price of nitric acid is stable. The demand side is stable: I heard that some downstream pre Festival parking, but the market is better. Aniline prices stabilized after rising this week, and East China followed Shandong.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, pure benzene is approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream goods preparation is basically over, and the pure benzene negotiation is becoming lighter. Crude oil is expected to continue high-level operation and support pure benzene well. Overall, it is expected that the horizontal consolidation of pure benzene will be dominated next week, and there may be a downward trend, but the decline is limited. In terms of nitric acid, near the end of the year, most enterprises are ready to stop for maintenance. The goods in the nitric acid market are not good, and the quotation of nitric acid is weak to maintain stability.

Next week is the last week before the festival, and the downstream demand may weaken. However, under the support of tight aniline supply and high cost price, aniline consolidation is expected to be the main trend. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

Domestic p-xylene price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the market price trend of p-xylene this week is temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 6900 yuan / ton, the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 46.81%.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, and the domestic p-xylene supply is relatively normal, but some overseas units are still under maintenance. Due to the general downstream demand, the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable. The closing price of international crude oil rose, and the trend of PX external price rose. As of the 14th, the closing prices were US $942-944 / T FOB Korea and US $962-964 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia was relatively stable. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene unit in Asia was more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia was normal, and the closing price of PX external price rose, The domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Crude oil prices rose this week. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $83.82/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $86.06/barrel. The oil price hit a new high in recent two months. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron has a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, superimposed on investors’ belief that the Fed is not as good as the expected hawks, and the oil price rebounded sharply. The current policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) is to gradually restore the oil production stopped during the epidemic by increasing by 400000 barrels / day month by month. However, in fact, OPEC + production is limited, the supply growth is relatively slow, the tight supply expectation and the rise of risk appetite are good for oil prices. The continuous decline of US crude oil inventories also triggered supply concerns. API crude oil inventories decreased by 1077000 barrels in the week of January 7. It is generally expected that the data of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventories. The rising trend of oil price has a certain positive impact on the domestic petrochemical market, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

The downstream PTA market price rose slightly this week. As of the 17th, the average PTA market price was 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the PTA price rose by 0.92% this week. At present, the improvement of PTA market is mainly due to the recovery of crude oil market and the good supply side brought by centralized maintenance of units. However, the current terminal orders are still relatively light, the downstream polyester inventory is accumulated, and the raw material procurement is mainly to meet the rigid demand. At present, the operating rate of the industry is maintained at nearly 77%. The terminal orders in the terminal market are still relatively light. At present, the comprehensive start-up rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has fallen to 49%, and there are no new orders in the hands of some factories. In addition, the production inventory risk is high, and the start-up rate is expected to continue to decline. PTA plant in the raw material market is still planned to be overhauled, the positive support on the cost side remains, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current crude oil price is supported to a certain extent, and the cost side support is still in effect. In addition, some downstream PTA devices may be overhauled, resulting in poor demand in the terminal textile industry. However, affected by the strong support of crude oil, it is expected that the market price of p-xylene may rise slightly in the later period.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price increased slightly this week, and the quotation increased from 646.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 655.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.29%, a year-on-year increase of 106.30% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose slightly this week. On January 16, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 101.95, the same as yesterday, down 26.54% from the highest point 138.78 in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 223.45% from the lowest point 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is good, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is enhanced

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers increased slightly this week, the manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is good. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid is quoted at 930 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu sulfuric acid quoted 620 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid quoted 600 yuan / ton this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Changzhou Changjiang sulfuric acid is quoted at 600 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid is quoted at 650 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Liaocheng Huatong sulfuric acid quoted 540 yuan / ton this weekend, up 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose slightly this week. The quotation rose from 2060.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2096.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.78%, up 108.97% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The upstream market has gradually risen in the near future and the cost support has been strengthened. The downstream bromine market rose slightly, and the quotation increased from 53714.29 yuan / ton last weekend to 54571.43 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.60%, a year-on-year increase of 61.83% over the same period last year. The downstream formic acid Market stopped falling and rose. The quotation rose from 4300.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4500.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.65%, up 69.81% year-on-year compared with the same period last year, and the downstream market rose slightly. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

Market outlook rose slightly

In late January, the domestic sulfuric acid market was dominated by slight shock and rise. The upstream sulfur market has gradually risen recently, and the cost support is good. The downstream formic acid Market stopped falling and rose, the downstream bromine market rose slightly, the downstream customers had good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market, the market price of sulfuric acid may rise slightly.

Aluminum fluoride prices fell again

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride fell continuously in January. As of January 18, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 13550 yuan / ton, down 5.68% from 14366.67 yuan / ton on January 1; The price of raw materials fell, and the market of aluminum fluoride fell continuously in January.

The price of raw materials fell

According to the monitoring of business society, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid both fell in January, the price of fluorite fell slightly, and the price of hydrofluoric acid fell sharply. The price of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid decreased, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreased, and the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increased.

The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose in January, and the output of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was relatively stable. Near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises showed a slight downward trend, the demand for aluminum fluoride was relatively weak, the rising power of aluminum fluoride was weak, and the downward pressure was great.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that in the off-season of aluminum fluoride in January, the demand is relatively low, the prices of raw materials hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fall, the cost of aluminum fluoride decreases, and the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride increases. Generally speaking, the cost is falling, the demand is temporarily stable, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is increasing, and the rising power is insufficient. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fall weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of baking soda was adjusted and operated this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to Friday was 2483.33 yuan / ton. The price of baking soda maintained the consolidation trend this week. On January 16, the commodity index of baking soda was 164.82, the same as yesterday, 30.11% lower than the highest point 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and 86.72% higher than the lowest point 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is stable temporarily, and the demand in the downstream market is generally in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2200-2500 yuan / ton.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is weak this week. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the week was 2250 yuan / ton, and the average market price on Friday was about 2237.5 yuan / ton, down 0.56% and up 66.98% over the same period last year. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2000-2300 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is weak, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton. On the whole, the short-term soda ash price is weak, mainly running. The manufacturer actively shipped, and the actual transaction was average.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general in the near future, and the actual shipment is general. Raw materials, according to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is weak. The trading atmosphere is general, and the overall trading atmosphere is relatively light. The downstream glass is still tepid, and the demand improvement is not obvious. At present, the price of soda ash is still mainly on the sidelines, and the market is pessimistic. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is generally in the near future. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda is short-term or weak, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 was strong in early January, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of January 14, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for Zhongtong was about 16133.33 yuan / ton, up or down by 3.20% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material caprolactam, the overall market operated smoothly this week, the spot price remained stable, and some enterprises raised the ex factory price. The price of raw material pure benzene is rising. At present, the cost of caprolactam is well supported, and the downstream starts to follow up. After the restart of some enterprise devices, the supply will increase. Caprolactam is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam is stronger, and the cost side support of PA6 is strengthened. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant this week is more stable than before, with an overall rate of about 70%. The maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage is good, and the supply of high-speed spinning chips is tight at present. At present, downstream enterprises have entered the holiday schedule one after another, the pre holiday stock tide is at the end, and there is demand expectation in some areas. The inventory position of terminal enterprise PA6 is not high, the purchase operation is just needed, and most transactions are contract orders.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 rises, the trend of caprolactam is strong, and the cost support of PA6 is enhanced. The preparation before the end of the terminal demand Festival is coming to an end, and the order situation of PA6 enterprises is expected to decrease. It is reported that the load of PA6 enterprises has an upward trend. It is expected that the rise of PA6 price may be blocked in the short term, with a narrow correction.

This week, the spot tin market price (12.31-1.7) was mainly upward. The average price in the domestic market was 300037.50 yuan / ton last weekend and 304725 yuan / ton this weekend, up 1.56%.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The figure above shows that the recent spot tin price has mainly fluctuated in a narrow range.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the first week of 2022 (1.3-1.7), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were neodymium oxide (8.11%), magnesium (7.14%) and metal neodymium (6.14%). There were 6 commodities with month on month decline, and the top 3 products were silver (- 3.91%), metallic silicon (- 1.08%) and gold (- 1.06%). Both rose or fell by 2.04% this week.

In terms of futures market, Shanghai tin still maintained a strong trend this week, and the overall trend continued to rise this week. Although the price fell slightly on the 4th, it continued to rise on Friday, and further refreshed the historical high of 298880 yuan / ton during the week.

In terms of spot market, the trend is basically consistent with that of Shanghai tin. Except for a slight decline on Thursday, the overall trend remains upward. Basically, in terms of supply, it is expected that the output of tin ingots will decline near the Spring Festival, and the overall supply in the domestic market is still tight. And there is no expectation of improvement in the short term. In terms of downstream demand, there is a certain replenishment demand before the festival, but due to the high tin price, most of the downstream are purchased on demand.

Basically, the tin market still maintains a weak balance between supply and demand. Boosted by low inventory, it is expected that the tin price will continue to maintain a high oscillation trend in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of baking soda was temporarily stable this week, and the average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 2483.33 yuan / ton. The price of baking soda maintained a stable trend this week. On January 9, the commodity index of baking soda was 164.82, unchanged from yesterday, down 30.11% from the highest point of 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and up 86.72% from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is stable temporarily, and the demand in the downstream market is generally in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2300-2600 yuan / ton.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is weak this week. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the week was 2700 yuan / ton, and the average market price on Friday was about 2250 yuan / ton, down 16.67% and up 67.91% over the same period last year. According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is weak this week. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2100-2400 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is weak, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2400-2500 yuan / ton. On the whole, the short-term soda ash price is weak, mainly running. The manufacturer actively shipped, and the actual transaction was average. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash during the week was 82.38%.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general in the near future, and the actual shipment is general. Raw materials, according to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is weak. The trading atmosphere is general, and the overall trading atmosphere is relatively light. The downstream glass is still tepid, and the demand improvement is not obvious. At present, the price of soda ash is still mainly on the sidelines, and the market is pessimistic. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is generally in the near future. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda is short-term or weak, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 11, 2022, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas in China is around 690 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as that on January 1, and the average price increases by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.47%, compared with December 1, 2021.

In 2022, after the new year’s day, China’s domestic phosphate ore market has been in stable operation as a whole. The price fluctuation in the field is small and the overall operation is stable. The domestic phosphate ore supply is still tight, and most of the supply has given priority to the orders of old customers. In addition, near the Spring Festival, the mine is under construction, and the downstream goods are prepared on demand with a normal rhythm. As of January 11, The phosphate ore market in Guizhou is running stably for the time being. The price of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 630-680 yuan / ton, the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 580-620 yuan / ton, and the price of 22% grade phosphate rock platform is around 290-310 yuan / ton. In Guangxi, the factory price of 30% phosphate rock is around 640-680 yuan / ton. In Hubei, the phosphate ore market is in high order, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck plate is 660-680 yuan / ton.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product, region ,grade ,Price, remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 630-670 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 580-620 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 30% 660-680 yuan / ton Plate price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 640-680 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 580-620 yuan / ton Factory price

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus fell after new year’s day. After the new year’s Day holiday, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has increased, the overall market is relatively cold, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is strong. The transaction in the yellow phosphorus market is weak and downward, and the inquiry is general. It is mainly just needed and can be used as needed. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 34000-35000 yuan / ton.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of domestic phosphorus ore mines is low, and the supply of phosphorus ore is mainly contract old customers, and the supply is still tight. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that on the eve of the Spring Festival, most of the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to operate at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.