1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of baking soda was temporarily stable this week, and the average market price from the beginning of the week to Friday was 2416.67 yuan / ton. The price of baking soda remained temporarily stable this week. On February 13, the commodity index of baking soda was 160.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.99% from the highest point 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and up 81.72% from the lowest point 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is stable for the time being, and the demand in the downstream market is generally in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2200-2500 yuan / ton. Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is strong this week, and the market is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2200-2400 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is weak, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2300-2500 yuan / ton. The manufacturer is mainly active in shipping and has a strong price increase mentality. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash in the week was 83%.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda from medicine, textile and food is cautious in the near future, the demand is general, and the actual shipment is general. As for raw materials, domestic soda ash is in a strong mood, with stable and good operation. However, in the near future, the downstream has a cautious purchasing mentality, general demand, resistance to high priced soda ash and market game mentality. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general in the near future, and the game mentality lingers. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda may maintain the consolidation operation in the short term, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic EVA market continued to operate strongly, and the price rose steadily. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 17833.33 yuan / ton on February 7 and 18133.33 yuan / ton on February 14, with an increase of 1.68% during the week and 5.63% compared with January 15.

As of February 14, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 17500 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 17700 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 19200 yuan / ton

After the Spring Festival, the domestic EVA market offer was strong, and the overall price remained stable. The ex factory price of individual petrochemical enterprises increased, and the overall fluctuation range was small. After the Spring Festival, there are few downstream factories to resume work, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is limited, and the mentality of the operators is more cautious. There is little pressure on upstream inventory, and the mentality is relatively strong.

At present, the upstream ethylene market is driven by the rise in international crude oil prices, which continues to rise, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. However, the current market demand is limited, the downstream is gradually restored, and the demand may increase in the later stage. It is expected that the price of EVA market will continue to be strong in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 296.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 234.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 20.95%, up 26.49% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week. On February 13, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 61.58, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.34% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 242.49% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Weak upstream support and general downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid offered 300 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wenshui is 130 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 160 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 50 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid is quoted at 90 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng Sanan hydrochloric acid is quoted at 600 yuan / ton this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general, which weakens the support for hydrochloric acid. The price of downstream polyaluminium chloride fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 2507.50 yuan / ton last weekend to 2360.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 5.88%, up 31.72% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 1075.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1195.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 11.16%. On the whole, downstream products are not enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid, which has a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid.

Future forecast

The upstream liquid chlorine market has fallen recently, the cost support is general, the downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride Market protect the rise and fall, and the downstream purchase intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic bisphenol a market has a good start, which is mainly affected by the upstream raw materials and supported by the cost side. During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil rebounded sharply, the raw material pure benzene phenol / acetone rose, and bisphenol A and downstream liquid epoxy resin / PC followed up. After the festival, major domestic factories released short-term maintenance plans, and the factories increased by 400-500 yuan / ton. After the festival, Changchun chemical bisphenol a rose to 19000 yuan / ton, followed by the market to 19000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer in East China was 18562 yuan / ton on February 7, and the average market offer rose to 19000 yuan / ton on February 11, with an overall increase of 2.36% during the week.

After the festival, the support of double raw materials is strong, the raw material market remains high, and the mentality of all nodes of the industrial chain is positive under the support of cost. The phenol factory rose again, and the market also rose 100-200 again. Up to now, the factory’s guiding price is 11400-11500 yuan / ton, and the market offer in East China is 11350-11400 yuan / ton. The acetone market is steadily rising, and the factories are collectively adjusted after the festival. The mainstream offer of the factories is 6000 yuan / ton. So far, the negotiation in East China is 6000 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas is 6000 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China is 6100 yuan / ton.

Downstream epoxy resin followed the upward trend, and the market continued to operate at a high level under the support of cost.

The domestic epoxy resin market offer is stable, the dual raw materials are at a high level, and the cost is difficult to fluctuate. So far, the liquid epoxy resin market offer in East China is 28800-29800 yuan / ton, delivered in barrels, and the solid resin market offer is 24500-24800 yuan / ton. In particular, liquid epoxy resin increased by 1500-2000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival.

From the perspective of business society, the supply of bisphenol a market after the festival is still not abundant, the cost support is strong, and the downstream epoxy resin is also gradually improving. On Thursday, the bidding in East China rose to 17000 yuan / ton, compared with 1500 yuan / ton before the festival. After a period of rise, it also depends on the terminal digestion. Business society expects the bisphenol a market to maintain a high and stable situation in the short term

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 10, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 11766 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 9366 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 2400 yuan / ton, or 25.62%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that on the first day of construction after the Spring Festival, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong ushered in a sharp rise, which has exceeded 27% in just three days. During the Spring Festival holiday, the rise of crude oil gave the operators some confidence. In addition, the spot supply of n-butanol on the site was tight. On the first day of construction (the 7th), the large n-butanol plant in Shandong resumed opening, that is, the ex factory price of n-butanol was significantly increased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. The ex factory price of n-butanol of the plant was referred to as 11800 yuan / ton. The overall atmosphere in the venue is improving. Other large factories have also raised the ex factory price of n-butanol by 1500-2200 yuan / ton. On the 7th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was referred to as 11100-12000 yuan / ton. On the 8th, supported by the small supply pressure of the factory and the opening of demand after the festival, the trading atmosphere on the site was more active, and the center of gravity of n-butanol continued to move upward. On the 8th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 11500-12000 yuan / ton. On the 9th, the downstream demand slowed down, the n-butanol market operated smoothly, and the downstream resisted high prices. On the 10th, the offer of Shandong n-butanol large factory was lowered by 200 yuan / ton. The price adjustment of large factory has loosened the overall market of n-butanol, but the overall performance of the market is still high. As of the 10th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 11500-11800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 11766 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 25% after the festival.

In terms of upstream propylene, after the festival, the domestic propylene market ushered in a wave of rise, in which propylene (Shandong) rose to 8300-8350 yuan / ton. The long-span rise in prices is mainly affected by two factors. First, crude oil prices rose strongly during the Spring Festival, forming obvious support on the cost side; Second, the supply and demand side of propylene has not been fully restored, some propylene plants have not returned to work, and the transportation is not smooth due to festivals and weather, resulting in tight supply in the region and further contributing to the rise of propylene. Forecast: in terms of cost and supply and demand, there is still some room for propylene to rise in the short-term market.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-butanol has a weakening trend, and the support of the supply side is OK. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong is more stable, medium and narrow adjustment and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of supply and demand.

Product Name: organosilicon DMC

Latest price (February 9): 31420 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on February 9, the overall stable operation of domestic silicone DMC market. On the 9th, the factory quotation of domestic silicone DMC was around 31000-31500 yuan / ton, the average price reference was opened one after another, and the trading atmosphere in the venue was calm.

Future forecast: after the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic silicone DMC market will recover one after another, and the downstream goods preparation will be carried out step by step. The silicone DMC datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (February 7): 264.00 yuan / ton

On February 7, the market price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell, which was 32 yuan / ton lower than that on January 28 before the festival, a decrease of 10.81%, and a year-on-year increase of 42.70% compared with the same period last year. The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, and the support for hydrochloric acid is insufficient. The downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride market fell slightly, and the downstream purchase intention weakened.

Recently, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate and fall slightly, and the average quotation price is about 260 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price first rose and then fell in January. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 154366.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the nickel price rose slightly to 168766.67 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 9.33% and a year-on-year increase of 24.14%.

Previously, the import volume of nickel ore in the rainy season in the Philippines fell sharply, the market supply was tight, the nickel price was boosted, and the nickel price rose sharply. On the one hand, the production of stainless steel decreased from January to February; On the other hand, there is a strong demand for nickel sulfate in the field of electric vehicles. Ternary precursor enterprises begin to stock up before the Spring Festival, and the demand for nickel sulfate increases.

The nickel price rose sharply and then fell sharply from the high level:

The handling fee of the deposit raised in the previous period

The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that since the closing and settlement on Wednesday, January 26, 2022, the proportion of trading margin and the range of price limit will be adjusted. The proportion of trading margin of nickel, tin and stainless steel futures contracts will be adjusted to 14% and the range of price limit will be adjusted to 12%.

Qingshan high nickel matte shipping

The first batch of high nickel matte products in morowali Park, Castle Peak, Indonesia were collected at the port and officially loaded and shipped home. At present, there are 3 high nickel matte production lines in morowali Park, with a monthly nickel metal production capacity of about 3000 tons. It is preliminarily understood that in addition to the existing production lines, Indonesia Castle Peak Park plans to build several new production lines in the future. This is the first shipment of products other than samples since the announcement of Qingshan high nickel matte in March last year. Previously, Castle Peak signed an agreement with Huayou and Zhongwei on the annual supply of 75000 tons of high nickel matte, with the supply period from October 2021 to October 2022. It is understood that the total shipping volume is about 500 tons.

To sum up: affected by multiple factors such as Qingshan high nickel matte shipment, the increase of margin handling fee in the previous period, and the decline of European and American stock markets caused by the tense situation in Ukraine, the high nickel price fell. However, the large-scale production of high nickel matte still takes time, and the fundamentals have little impact for the time being. Nickel prices are expected to rise and fall, mainly based on capital game, and maintain a shock pattern in the short term.

According to the survey data of business society, the price of caustic soda increased first and then decreased in 2021, and the price fell from November. From the annual price comparison chart, we can see that the price of caustic soda in mid and late October has reached the highest level in ten years. Mainly affected by the “double control” policy.

As can be seen from the monthly K residence chart of caustic soda, the price fell in January, February, April and November of 2021, and the biggest increase in other rising months was 90% in September.

According to the survey data of business agency, the average market price of caustic soda at the beginning of the year was about 485 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was about 1000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 106.19%. The price of caustic soda was adjusted in the first and second quarters. The price rose from June to early November, then fell from November, and began to rebound from mid to late December.

As can be seen from the above figure, the overall price of caustic soda rose 106.19%, the downstream formic acid rose 62.26% and corrugated paper rose 12.97% in 2021. The rise of downstream prices drives the demand for caustic soda.

In the first quarter, the average market price was about 485 yuan / ton on January 1 and 490 yuan / ton on March 31, with a price increase of 1.03%. The overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, the cost side changes little, and the downstream purchase demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current caustic soda price. Although a few caustic soda manufacturers tentatively increase their quotation, it has a limited impact on the market.

In the second quarter, the price of caustic soda began to rise slightly. On April 1, the average market price of caustic soda was about 490 yuan / ton, and on June 30, the average market price was about 517.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 5.61%. Due to the inventory demand of alumina enterprises in Shandong, the demand for caustic soda is acceptable. However, at present, the overall inventory of caustic soda enterprises is sufficient, and other regions mainly wait and see. The subsequent consolidation and operation of caustic soda is still the main.

In the third quarter, the price of caustic soda in Shandong rose sharply. On July 1, the average market price of caustic soda was about 517.5 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the average market price of caustic soda was about 1235 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 138.65%. Recently, the maintenance inventory of caustic soda manufacturers has decreased, while the downstream alumina is still supported by the demand side. In addition, the export of caustic soda is well oriented. According to the data, the export of liquid soda in June was 136400 tons, with a month on month increase of 131.97% and a year-on-year increase of 456.73%. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate well, depending on the downstream market demand.

From late October to the end of November, the price of caustic soda went down. At the beginning of the month, due to the dual control policy, caustic soda manufacturers stopped and the supply decreased. Downstream: at present, alumina enterprises are more active in purchasing caustic soda in the near future, and the quotation of caustic soda manufacturers is increased. In late October, the prices of alumina purchasing enterprises and caustic soda were lowered, and the recent demand of downstream was general.

Since the middle of December, the price began to rebound again, mainly because the enterprise inventory was low and the downstream alumina procurement was better than that in the early stage. The increase of caustic soda is mainly due to the maintenance of manufacturers, the environmental protection inspection at the end of the year and the advent of the Winter Olympic Games. It is expected that the supply will decrease, the inventory of enterprises will decrease and the price of caustic soda will rise.

Caustic soda: business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda in January is relatively consolidated. Due to the impact of the environment and policies in 2021, caustic soda has a large increase. Throughout 2022, there may not be a historical high in 2021, but it will usher in the peak season according to the price in the third quarter of previous years, and the consolidation and operation in other months will focus on the downstream market demand.

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market returned to the upward route, and the price rose continuously. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5380.00 yuan / ton on January 17 and 5580.00 yuan / ton on January 24, with an increase of 3.72% during the week and 9.63% compared with January 1.

As of January 24, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions of China are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

North China 4950-5250 yuan / ton

East China 5100-5460 yuan / ton

Northeast China 5200-5500 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5450-5650 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market as a whole was dominated and the trend was relatively strong. During the week, Shandong civil gas market rose one after another, with a range of 150-300 yuan / ton. During the week, the international crude oil rose one after another, the news was good, the market mentality was good, and the market supply changed little. However, near the Spring Festival, there was a certain replenishment demand in the downstream, and the enthusiasm for entering the market was good. The overall trading atmosphere of the market was mild, the manufacturers shipped smoothly at the beginning of the week, and the inventory was mostly controllable. However, in the later part of the week, the enthusiasm for entering the market in the downstream weakened, and the market increase narrowed.

Recently, the LPG futures market rose first and then fell, bringing phased benefits to the spot market. On January 24, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2203 was 4739, the highest price was 4805, the lowest price was 4510, and the closing price was 4515. The former settlement price was 4730, and the settlement price was 4687, down 215, or 4.54%. The trading volume was 255392, the position was 86664, and the daily position was increased by 10008. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is mild, the inventories of manufacturers are mostly in a controllable state, and the mentality is relatively strong. The civil gas market in Shandong is still rising, but the international crude oil market is in a negative market mentality. In addition, the Spring Festival is coming, and most downstream replenishment has been completed. The trading atmosphere is expected to weaken. It is expected that the upward space of civil gas prices in Shandong is limited, mainly strong in the short term