1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 25, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18500.00 yuan/ton, 0.89% lower than the price of 18666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 25.00% lower than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 25, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25,333.33 yuan/ton, 1.94% lower than the price of 25,833.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 47.59% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The price of refrigerant R22 fluctuated slightly this week. The price of raw material trichloromethane fell sharply in November, falling by 32.33% in the month. Hydrofluoric acid continued to rise overall in November, rising by 8.75% in the month. The cost of raw material fluctuated at a low level. The demand for refrigerant in winter was generally light, the cost fluctuated slightly, and the price of refrigerant R22 moved forward with a small fluctuation.

As of November 25, the price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, with a slight increase of 8.75% in the month. The price of trichloroethylene continued to be weak, with a decline of about 5% in the month. The cost price of raw materials was generally weak and stable. The price of refrigerant R134a was stable this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid rose significantly in November, and the recovery of raw material cost will support the domestic price of refrigerant R134a in the future.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believed that the price of chloroform fell sharply, the price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded from the bottom, the overall bottom of R22 cost price fluctuated, the cost weakness became stable, and the R22 market price would become stable in the future. The price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded sharply, the price of trichloroethylene dropped slightly, and the cost of R134a raw materials showed a slight recovery trend. Affected by the light overall demand for refrigerants in winter, the price of R134a refrigerant rose and fell in a dilemma. It is expected that the R134a market price will continue to fluctuate slightly at the current level in the short term.

Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market Price Trend

Polyformaldehyde price curve

(Photo source: Commodity Analysis System of Business Cooperatives)

In November, the price of polyoxymethylene in Shandong was stable. The average price of polyoxymethylene production in Shandong was 5433.33 yuan/ton, and the quotation was flat compared with last month. A year-on-year drop of 20.10%.

Chart of market price trend of methanol polyoxymethylene

Upstream methanol situation: domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly, mainly due to supply and demand. In terms of equipment, Yankuang Guojiao 250000 t/a equipment is shut down for maintenance. The 1.2 million t/a unit of Shanxi Jinmei Huayu is restored, and the 100000 t/a units of Shanxi Jinfeng, 100000 t/a units of Shanxi Tianze and 400000 t/a units of Shanxi Coking are planned to restart. The supply is abundant, but the existing demand has not been significantly boosted, and the short-term domestic methanol market is mainly weak.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and consolidated, with weak growth and general cost support. In addition, the transportation in Shandong is not smooth, and the market turnover is light. Polyformaldehyde analysts from the business community predict that the price may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell after rising this week (11.14-11.18). The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7312 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7230 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 1.12%, down 2.77% from 30 days ago.

As of November 18, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/November 18

Shandong region./7200-7250 yuan/ton

Northeast China../6850-6900 yuan/ton

East China/7100-7150 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of this Friday, the mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market was 7200-7250 yuan/ton. Due to the large increase last week, the downstream was wait-and-see and the demand was suppressed. In order to stabilize the delivery of goods, the refinery lowered the price and gave up the increase. The overall supply and demand of propylene market is stable, with downstream demand as the main demand. However, this year, there are many new capacity, relatively loose supply, and great resistance to price rise. Affected by the sharp drop of crude oil on Friday, the market mentality was depressed, and the downstream receiving was slightly cautious.

Upstream: crude oil prices fell broadly this week. As of the end of November 17, WTI fell 3.95 to 81.64 US dollars/barrel in December, down 4.61%; In January, Brent fell 3.08 to 89.78 dollars/barrel, down 3.31%. Negative cost support. Downstream market was mixed, and the demand for some products was good, but polypropylene was still weak, holding back the propylene market.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative, the current long short game in the propylene market is affected by the sharp drop in crude oil. Under the leadership of bad news, propylene prices are expected to continue to decline in a narrow range next week.

This week (11.11-11.18), methylene chloride market was weak and fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2575 yuan/ton, down 5.5% from 2725 yuan/ton last Friday. As of the 18th, the market price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was between 2500 yuan and 2600 yuan/ton.

This week (11.11-11.18), the commencement of methane chloride increased slightly, and the pressure of dichloromethane supply surface remained.

This week (11.11-11.18), the spot market of methanol rose slightly, and the cost of dichloromethane rose slightly. According to the business community, as of November 18, the spot price of methanol was 2830 yuan/ton, up 1.89% from 2777 yuan/ton last Friday.

When winter comes, the domestic household air conditioning industry is in the low season of production and marketing. The demand for mainstream refrigerants R32, R22 and R410A is weak, and the refrigerant starts at a low level; The thin material and pharmaceutical industries started relatively stably, and the transactions in the dichloromethane market were generally flat.

Future forecast: The analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose, the cost is slightly weak, and the rising raw material price and cost are slightly supported. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of steam coal was weak this week. On November 20, the energy index was 1139, unchanged from yesterday, down 27.03% from the highest point of 1561 (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 122.90% from the lowest point of 511 on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the price of steam coal is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The operation is affected by public health events and safety production reduction, and the price of steam coal is weak. The price of coal mine has been lowered by 20-40 yuan/ton. The overall supply guarantee and long-term cooperation of coal in the market are better, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood.

In terms of downstream ports, traders’ quotations declined, mainly taking a wait-and-see attitude. Downstream customers are generally motivated to pick up goods, with few deals, and generally accept high prices. The quotation of traders dropped slightly, and the buyer and seller were deadlocked.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, last week (November 7-13), the national coal price fell steadily, including 1586 yuan per ton of No. 2 smokeless lump coal, unchanged from the previous week, 1481 yuan per ton of coking coal and 970 yuan per ton of steam coal, down 1.2% and 0.3% respectively. The price of steel products rose slightly, including 4053 yuan per ton of deformed steel bars, unchanged from the previous week, 4276 yuan per ton of high-speed wire rods and 4143 yuan per ton of hot rolled strip steel, up 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.

According to the analysts of the business community, the market transaction of steam coal in the origin area is relatively ordinary due to the impact of safety inspection and public health events. In terms of downstream ports, the downstream still mainly wait and see steam coal, generally accept high prices, and the coal price declines. The overall purchasing enthusiasm of the market is average, and it is expected that the price of steam coal will be dominated by weak operation (but policy regulation still needs to be paid attention to), depending on the downstream market demand.

This week (11.14-18), the price of ethyl acetate in China fell significantly. According to the statistics of the business community, it fell by 0.73% this week, mainly because of the sharp decline of raw acetic acid and the price reduction of major manufacturers, especially the price decline of the main factories in Shandong, which changed from auction to retail, depressed the market confidence, and the weak downstream demand. At the weekend, the market price of ethyl acetate was 6400-6600 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of acetic acid, the domestic acetic acid fell significantly this week. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid fell by 3.07%. The utilization rate of acetic acid market capacity increased during the week. Celanese and Henan Shunda resumed operation within the week. The supply volume increased. The social inventory increased. In addition, the upstream methanol price fell and the cost was weak, which depressed the downstream market mentality. In terms of terminal demand: it is still weak at present, and the market trading atmosphere is general. In order to maintain the rhythm of shipment, the manufacturer has lowered its quotation, and the price trend of acetic acid continues to decline.

From the above figure, the price trend comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they are highly correlated, and the recent trend is basically the same. The recent downward trend of acetic acid is more severe than that of downstream ethyl acetate, which is not affected by the improvement of downstream demand. The acetic acid curve shows signs of approaching ethyl acetate, and the downward trend of acetic acid is intensified, which also relieves the cost pressure of downstream ethyl acetate manufacturers.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate this week was stable, and the operating rate was flat last week. At present, the operating rate of the industry is about 60%. Major factories in Shandong and Jiangsu maintained normal operation. This week, some manufacturers generally lowered their ex factory prices by about 100 yuan/ton. The manufacturer reduced the price and inventory, which depressed the market confidence. Moreover, the market expectation has turned weak. At present, the supply of ethyl acetate exceeds the demand.

On the demand side, downstream procurement generally slowed down. This week, dealers and downstream factories had weak purchasing intentions. Shandong’s main factories changed from auction to retail, and the deal was not ideal. Downstream orders contracted, leading to a significant slowdown in the speed of goods delivery. The number of transactions in the market is relatively small, and most transactions are at low prices. In addition to some downstream demand for goods preparation, the market as a whole maintains a rigid demand.

Looking at the future market, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business community believe that the current raw material acetic acid is still declining, and the cost is still negative, which does not rule out the possibility that the ethyl acetate will continue to fall next week. The supply and demand side is also difficult to see too much value. The low-end transactions in the market are better than the high-end transactions, so it is expected that the market of ethyl acetate will be weak in the short term.

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of November 17, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8033.33 yuan/ton, unchanged from Monday’s price and 7.31% lower than that on October 17.

This week, the acrylic acid market was stable. From the perspective of cost, the price of raw propylene has fallen recently, and the cost support has weakened. From the perspective of supply and demand: the plant load has been adjusted slightly, and the operating rate has declined compared with the previous period. However, the downstream procurement mentality is cautious. The market transaction is just in demand, and the atmosphere is general. The focus of acrylic acid market negotiation is stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose and fell back this week (11.14-11.18). The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7312 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7230 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 1.12%.

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the cost is still supported to some extent. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the market atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the acrylic market will operate with a subjective expectation of stability in the short term. More attention should be paid to the business commencement and the demand for cold transfer terminals in the north.

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 10, the price of nitrile rubber was 15250 yuan/ton, a new low in the year, 37.88% lower than the peak in the year. Since the beginning of the year, the nitrile rubber market has experienced two rounds of downturns. The first round of downward trend fell from the end of April to the end of August, with a decline of 35.79%; The second round of downward trend fell by 10.43% from late September to November 10. The traditional peak season of “golden nine and silver ten” only brought a small rebound to NBR in the short term, and the continuous downturn in demand once again dragged down NBR.

Raw material prices fell sharply, and the cost support of nitrile rubber was seriously insufficient. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of butadiene on November 10 was 6603 yuan/ton, 45.41% lower than the year high of 12096 yuan/ton; It was 28.83% lower than the September high of 9277 yuan/ton. Although the price of raw material acrylonitrile has rebounded since the end of August, it still fell sharply compared with the beginning of the year. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 10, the price of acrylonitrile was 11190 yuan/ton, down 23.15% from the high at the beginning of the year.

The supply side remained loose, dragging down the nitrile rubber market. On the one hand, the newly-built 35000 t/a butyronitrile unit of Lanzhou Petrochemical will be put into operation in May 2022, and there will be pressure on the supply side of the new butyronitrile capacity; On the other hand, during the Jin Jiu Yin Shi period, the domestic nitrile rubber plants basically operated normally, the enterprise inventory accumulated, and the pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber further increased. Lanzhou Petrochemical 100000 t/a nitrile unit operates normally; The 30000 t/a nitrile rubber plant of Nanjing Jinpu Insa Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. is in normal production; The 30000t/a nitrile rubber plant of Arantai Rubber operates normally; Normal production of Zhenjiang Nandi 50000 t/a nitrile rubber plant; Ningbo Shunze 65000 t/a unit operates normally.

Recently, the downstream rubber products industry continued to operate at a low level, the purchase of nitrile rubber was sluggish, the market turnover was light, and the demand for nitrile rubber was insufficient.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that at present, Nandi’s 50000 t/a NBR plant has been shut down for maintenance for about two weeks, slightly easing the pressure on the supply side of some NBR brands. However, the supply side of NBR is still relatively loose as a whole. In addition to weak demand, it is expected that NBR will continue to bottom out in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash this week was largely stable and slightly dynamic. The average market price of light soda ash was 2650 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 2644 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell 0.23%, down 27.31% from the same period last year. On November 10, the commodity index of light soda ash was 135.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.30% from the highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and up 114.71% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash this week is mainly stable, and the price is large, stable and small. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2650-2800 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2750 yuan/ton. Data shows that the operating rate of soda ash this week is about 89%.

Demand: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of glass fell this week. On Monday, the average market price was 19.63 yuan/square meter, and on the weekend, the average market price was 19.52 yuan/ton. The price fell 0.56%, down 23.96% year on year. The overall trading situation of the glass spot market is average. Transportation in some areas is affected to some extent. On the whole, the glass market is relatively flexible. Downstream processing plants mainly purchase on demand, and most manufacturers’ quotations are stable.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 0 kinds of rising commodities, 2 kinds of falling commodities and 3 kinds of zero rising commodities in the price list of chlor alkali industry in the 44th week of 2022 (10.31-11.4). The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 3.00%) and PVC (- 0.47%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.7%.

Analysts from the business society believe that: according to the survey data of the business society, the price of domestic soda ash is generally stable and slightly dynamic. Recently, soda ash enterprises have started to work in a relatively stable manner. The overall trading and investment atmosphere is ordinary. The downstream of soda ash is still mainly purchased on demand. The upstream and downstream supply and demand play a game, and the price of soda ash is under pressure. It is estimated that the price of soda ash will be mainly consolidated in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price trend

In the second week of November, the domestic POM market rose by a narrow margin, and the overall price performance was very high. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic POM was 13700 yuan/ton on November 6 and 13866.67 yuan/ton on November 14, with a weekly increase and decrease of+1.22%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range last week. During the week, some large plants shut down their production units and the supply decreased. However, in some regions, there is resistance in the shipment of goods, and the demand is limited, and the downstream receiving price is weak; Shandong formaldehyde market is also vulnerable to consolidation due to poor transportation. There were few real deals on the floor, and trading did not improve significantly.

Supply: Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has remained at a high level. Except Zhangjiagang Xuhuacheng, other polymerization plants are operating at full load, and the current industry load is more than 90%. The processing profit of the enterprise fluctuates in a narrow range, with a gross profit level of about 2300 yuan per ton, which is acceptable.

Demand: Although the load of POM industry was high last week, the supply of goods in the market was generally tight. The confidence of producers and traders is fair, and the willingness to support prices is generally strong. The trading position of domestic POM in East China and South China markets rose together, with an average weekly increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. However, the enthusiasm of the terminal enterprises for goods preparation is general, and the demand follow-up is slightly lagging behind.

Future market forecast

In the second week of November, the market of POM rose in a narrow range. The load of domestic polymerization plants is high, and some spot logistics are not smooth due to the impact of public health events. The market supply is slightly tight and there is an expectation of further tightening. In terms of demand, it is slightly insufficient. Downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory, and pick up goods mostly in small pieces. The fundamentals of the market are mixed, and the supply and demand pull the game. It is expected that in the short term, the POM market will rise and be blocked, and fall back to the consolidation market.