According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 3, 2023, the ex-factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was referenced at 5133 yuan/ton. Compared with February 26, 2023 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 5066 yuan/ton), the price increased by 67 yuan/ton, or 1.32%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week (2.27-3.03), the domestic dimethyl carbonate market overall showed a stable operating trend after a slight increase. At the beginning of the week, on February 27th, some domestic factories slightly increased the ex-factory price of dimethyl carbonate by around 100 yuan/ton, while other factories mostly kept the initial price stable, and then the overall domestic market of dimethyl carbonate was dominated by high consolidation. As of March 3, the ex-factory price of dimethyl carbonate in China is around 5000-5200 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on-site trading is good, the overall performance of the supply side of dimethyl carbonate is relatively stable, the downstream demand is gradually recovering, the polycarbonate market is stable, and the overall stability of other industries is stable. The business agency’s dimethyl carbonate data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate is stable and moving forward, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the change of information on the supply and demand side.

In February, the overall price of domestic engineering plastics fell more or less. According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, by the end of February, the decline of various engineering plastic varieties compared with the beginning of the month was from high to low, PC-5.64%, PA66-2.33%, PA6-1.40%, PET-0.87%, POM+2.38%, respectively.

Commodity/ Price at the beginning of February/ The price at the end of February/ Unit/ Monthly rise and fall

PC./17450.00./16466.67./yuan/ton./-5.64

PA66./21500.00./21000.00./yuan/ton./-2.33%

PA6./14333.33./14133.33./yuan/ton./- 1.4%

PET./ 7546.00./7480.00./yuan/ton./-0.87%

POM ./ 14000.00./14333.33./yuan/ton./+2.38%

In February, the supply and demand of the industry should have increased significantly during the period when the industry resumed work and market participants returned to cash. But at the end of the month, the overall momentum of the market was low. Macroscopically, the economic data of January was mixed, and the profitability of engineering plastics manufacturing enterprises was still challenged, and the improvement of operating risks of factories at all levels was limited. Combined with the fluctuation of international oil price at the beginning of the month, the common remote cost of the plastic industry weakened. The market situation of engineering plastics industry in February tends to be negative due to the lag of downstream enterprises in taking goods.

PC

The domestic PC market fell in February. The upstream bisphenol A market is also difficult to say positive, and the price fell after a narrow range of consolidation. Although raw materials such as pure benzene rose this month and bisphenol A rose with raw materials, the low demand of bisphenol A made it difficult to improve the low volatility of the market. The overall support effect on PC spot price is poor. In terms of industry load, the utilization rate of PC capacity increased to more than 70%, the highest in recent years, and the pressure on the supply side was high. The demand is relatively weak, the operators have a wait-and-see attitude, and the operation is cautious. The actual orders are mainly scattered small orders, and the downstream enterprises are relatively lagged behind in stock, and the traders are mostly engaged in profit-sharing sales. On the whole, the contradiction between PC supply and demand was deepened in February. It is expected that PC supply pressure will not change in the short term, or it will continue to operate in a weak way.

PA66

In February, the market of PA66 was poor, and the spot price was stagnant after falling. In terms of supply, the overall monthly load of domestic PA66 industry is more than 65%. Enterprise operations continue to be biased towards destocking, with general inventory pressure and abundant supply of goods on the site. In the upstream, the operating rate of adipic acid raw material increased within the month, and the expected increase in supply in the later period was negative for the market. The supply of hexamethylene diamine is also expected to increase, and the support of PA66 raw material end to the spot is weakened. In terms of demand, the situation is weak and difficult to change. The terminal enterprises just need to follow up with the maintenance of goods. Buyers generally have strong resistance to high-priced supply. It is expected that PA66 will continue its weak consolidation market in the short term.

PA6

The domestic PA6 market fell after rising in February. The market price of caprolactam, the upstream product, fell sharply, and the price of pure benzene, the raw material, fell first and then rose. The cost support was acceptable. The spot supply of caprolactam market is stable, and the downstream low-price procurement is the main factor, which weakens the support for PA6 cost. PA6′s operating rate in February fluctuated between 66% and 70%, with stable output and abundant supply of goods. Downstream, terminal replenishment demand is weak, intra-field trading is weak, overall demand for PA6 chips is poor, and intra-field spot competition is strong. It is expected that the PA6 market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

PET

This month, the bottle-grade PET market was stable and slightly volatile, and the market was operating in a narrow range. At the end of the month, the price of the business club was 7480.00 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the beginning of the month. At present, the overall supply and demand of the market is balanced. The cost support is not strong, and the manufacturer is active in shipping. Downstream enterprises purchase as required, and near the end of the month, the focus of on-site trading and investment negotiation is weak. In the near future, both domestic consumption and export orders have an upward trend. It is expected that the PET market will turn to a stronger market at the beginning of March.

POM

The domestic POM market was positive this month, with the market price rising. In terms of supply of goods, the load of POM enterprises was adjusted in a narrow range at the high level within the month, and the load at the end of the month was about 96%, but the inventory position of enterprises was low, and the supply pressure was acceptable. The manufacturer’s inventory of crows and the ex-factory price have been rising. Under its guidance, the traders’ mentality has been supported to some extent. In terms of demand, terminal enterprises purchase on demand. Near the end of the month, the stock operation is gradually cautious. The actual orders of traders are mostly for negotiation, and the actual transaction has slowed down. The POM market is relatively balanced in the near future, and it is expected that the market will be stable in the short term.

Aftermarket forecast

In February, the market of engineering plastics generally weakened, and most of the products had supply and demand contradictions in varying degrees. The polymerization enterprise reduced the ex-factory price in order to get rid of the stock. The terminal manufacturer has a pre-year raw material inventory waiting to be digested. It will take time for the market supply and demand to go through a phased contradiction. At the same time, the macro pattern of economic recovery at the beginning of this year did not significantly help the engineering plastics industry. In the short term, it is difficult to improve the market supply and demand. It is expected that the engineering plastics market will continue its current weak overall operation at the beginning of March.

According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on February 27 was 94.09, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.62% from the highest point of 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 13.51% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market was stable in late February 2023, with the main price of about 15442.86 yuan/ton. At present, the polyacrylamide manufacturers have sufficient inventory, the downstream demand is general, the market is not strong, and the order situation is not ideal. The mainstream market of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid declined mainly in the last ten days, and the downstream demand of both did not support the price rise; The downstream demand of polyacrylamide itself continued to be weak, and its market declined slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data from the Business News Agency, the market price of acrylonitrile continued to decline in late February. As of February 28, the bulk water price of acrylonitrile market was 10500 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from 10525 yuan/ton on February 21; Among them, the highest price of the stage is 10525 yuan/ton on February 21, and the lowest price is 10500 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The market of acrylonitrile raw materials was mainly down, while the cost was down; The stable production and commencement of the downstream have a strong need for support for acrylonitrile, but the downstream has a slight resistance to high-priced sources of goods. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Acrylic acid as raw material: According to the data from the Business News Agency, the acrylic acid market in late February first declined slightly and then rebounded slightly. Among them, the average price in East China on February 21 was 8100 yuan/ton, and the average price on February 28 was 8050 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.62% in the current ten days; The highest price of the stage is 8100 yuan/ton on the 21st, and the lowest price is 8000 yuan/ton on the 23-26, with the maximum amplitude of 0.82%. The supply-side cost support still exists, the operating rate is at a low level, the terminal demand is slow to follow up, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is general, and the focus of acrylic acid market negotiation is loose. At the end of the month, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and it was expected that the acrylic acid market would be dominated by stalemate and consolidation in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of Business News Agency, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) in late February fell first and then went up: from 6060 yuan/ton on February 21 to 6082 yuan/ton on February 28; Among them, the highest stage price was 6082 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the lowest stage price was 5964 yuan/ton on the 24th, with a maximum amplitude of 1.98%.

Aftermarket forecast: the price of main raw materials will mainly decline slightly, and the production of polyacrylamide will be normal and the inventory will be sufficient. The demand for downstream demand orders will continue to be weak. It is expected that the support will continue to be unfavorable in the short term, and the polyacrylamide market will continue to be weak.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend of paraxylene in February was temporarily stable. By the end of the month, the domestic ex-factory price of paraxylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 6.25%.

In February, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the operation of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 tons unit was stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Pengzhou Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical unit was stable, the Qingdao Lidong unit was operating at full load, the operation of Qilu Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Urumqi Petrochemical unit was about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The operation of overseas units is normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene is stable. In February, the international crude oil price fluctuated, and the PX outer price range fluctuated. As of the 24th, the closing price in Asia was 994-996 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1019-1021 dollars/ton CFR China. The operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained recently. Overall, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is around 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the domestic PX market trend is temporarily stable.

In February, the international crude oil price fell slightly by 3.23%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 76.32 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 82.82 dollars/barrel. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remains high, the economic data is strong, and the month-on-month rise in inflation data in January makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain supporting role in the international oil price and suppressed the decline of crude oil. On the whole, the price trend of crude oil market declined, while the price trend of paraxylene was stable.

In February, the domestic PTA spot market declined slightly, with the average price of 5636 yuan/ton in the East China market by the end of the month, down 2.21% from the beginning of the month. Recently, some PTA devices have been overhauled, the operating rate is around 72%, the PTA supply has decreased slightly, the short fiber supply in the downstream has increased slightly in the near future, and the start of the downstream yarn mills and weaving mills has been resumed, but the start of construction is less than expected, the demand recovery is less than expected, the short fiber enterprises have just purchased, and the short fiber enterprises have accumulated a small stock. On the whole, the downstream market is still weak. In general, the downstream textile industry is volatile, and the domestic paraxylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at PX Business Agency, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play against the demand side, and the downstream PTA inventory and supply will tighten expectations. With the coming of the “golden three silver four” peak season, the market’s expectation of demand is still relatively optimistic. In general, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will rise in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was stable this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9828.57 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 9828.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 13.18%.

Supply side: the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions is 9700-10200 yuan/ton. Some units are still in shutdown recently, but the hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, and the manufacturer’s hydrofluoric acid order is poor, which affects the hydrofluoric acid price to remain low.

Raw material side: the price trend of raw fluorite market is temporarily stable. As of the 24th, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3050 yuan/ton, and the price trend is stable this week. Recently, the operating rate of domestic supply side has increased, some fluorite enterprises have started operations, and the supply of domestic fluorite production enterprises has increased. The raw material mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. The insufficient supply of raw materials is also a major factor affecting the supply of fluorite. The price trend of fluorite on the site is temporarily stable, and hydrofluoric acid is affected by costs, and the market price fluctuates little.

The market price of raw material sulfuric acid rose. As of the 24th, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 248.33 yuan/ton. The price rose 4.2% this week, and the price rose this week. Recently, domestic sulphuric acid plants have been operating stably and the supply has been normal, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement of sulphuric acid has increased. Positive factors have supported the rise of sulphuric acid prices, which has driven the domestic hydrofluoric acid market to stop falling and stabilize.

Demand side: the market of refrigerant products at the downstream of the terminal rose slightly, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remained low. Some enterprises resumed work and slightly increased the ex-factory price, driving the domestic refrigerant R22 price to rise slightly. The refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. Affected by the low price of hydrofluoric acid, the refrigerant industry is under pressure, and the price increase of R22 is limited. The domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low load, and the price trend of R134a rises slightly. However, at present, the demand procurement is the main part, and the downstream enterprises are not starting high. The traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market price of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24500-25500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not yet resumed production. The refrigerant delivery is light, and the downstream R134a market is slightly higher. Recently, the downstream refrigerant industry has not been active in procurement, and the operating rate is less than 30%. The purchase of upstream raw materials is scarce, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Aftermarket forecast: In the short term, the raw material fluorite market will remain weak, and the downstream refrigerant industry will remain sluggish. However, the refrigerant market will rise slightly, and the combination of short and long factors will affect the market. Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of the Business Agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will remain low in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, as of February 22, the average price of domestic industrial 85% formic acid enterprises was 3433.33 yuan/ton, which was 0.98% higher than that of last Friday (February 17).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been stable after a slight rise. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has risen, the market of raw material methanol has fluctuated in a narrow range, and the pressure on cost has increased, which has driven the price of formic acid to rise, and the volume of mainstream devices in the early stage has been reduced. However, the market supply is sufficient, the demand of the main downstream formate market is moderate, and the market price is high, and the formic acid market is strong.

Upstream products: upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable on February 21, and the reference price of sulfuric acid was 243.33 on February 21, up 5.03% compared with February 1 (231.67); Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. From February 14 to 21 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of the domestic methanol market in the East China port rose from 2691 yuan/ton to 2714 yuan/ton. The price rose 0.85% and 0.90% month-on-month in the cycle.

According to the formic acid analysts of the Business Society, at present, the cost support is strong, the market is still dominated by inventory digestion, and the demand is expected to rise steadily. In the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be dominated by strong operation, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest dropped from 3683.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3583.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.71%. The year-on-year decline was 13.65%. The calcium carbide commodity index on February 19 was 93.89, which was the same as yesterday, down 55.76% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 69.20% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and average downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The market price of the upstream semicoke market was low, and the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of Shenmu charcoal was around 1400-1600 yuan/ton, and the cost support was insufficient. The market price of PVC rose from 6153.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6193.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.65%. The year-on-year decline was 29.86%. The PVC market price fluctuated slightly, and the downstream customers were generally motivated to purchase calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fall in the aftermarket

In late February, the carbide market may fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal is low, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream PVC market is slightly fluctuating and rising, and the downstream demand is general. In late February, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall in a narrow range.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong fell from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9500.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.40%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 26.92% year-on-year. The isooctanol commodity index on February 19 was 69.85, which was the same as yesterday, down 49.20% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 98.72% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weaker downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The price fell from 7558.25 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7513.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.60%, down 7.31% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP rose first and then fell this week. The price of DOP dropped by 1.29% from 10050.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9920.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 20.80% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Future prospects

In late February, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to small fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. Downstream DOP market fell slightly, and downstream demand weakened. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

The price of DOP fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 17, the price of DOP was 9920 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from 10050 yuan/ton on February 10. The price of DOP rebounded weakly, and the price of DOP fell sharply this week.

The price of raw material isooctanol fell in shock

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 17, the price of isooctanol was 9500 yuan/ton, down by 2.40% from the price of isooctanol of 9733.33 yuan/ton on February 10. The demand is weak, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on DOP prices increased.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride recovered

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 17, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8287.50 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the price of 8237.50 yuan/ton on February 10. The price of phthalic anhydride is strong this week, but the terminal demand recovery is limited. The market of phthalic anhydride is stagnant this week, the price of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the rising power of DOP is weakened.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOP data analysts of the Business News Agency, the price of isooctanol, the raw material, fell in shock, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized, the cost of DOP fell, and the downward pressure on DOP increased. In the future, the cost of DOP fell and the demand was weak, and the price of DOP was expected to fall in shock.

Market overview: According to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, as of February 16, 2023, the market reference price of diethylene glycol was 5376.67 yuan/ton, up 43.34 yuan/ton or 0.81% compared with the price of February 9, 2023 (5333.33 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business agency that the domestic diethylene glycol market has a narrow range this week, and the delivery of goods from the ports in East China is good and stable, with a strong intention to follow up the offer. Up to now, the spot price and this week’s negotiation price are at 5350-5360 yuan/ton. The market in South China is affected by the trend of the market in East China, and the price of the holders has been slightly increased. Up to now, the mainstream spot price is around 5550-5600 yuan/ton. This week, the international oil price rose as a whole, and the cost side support was strong. From the perspective of supply, the main port kept good delivery and the recent shipping schedule gap, and the inventory continued to decline. As of February 13, 2023, the inventory of East China port was about 40800 tons, down by 3300 tons from last week, down by 7.48%. As of February 16, 2023, the total inventory of the two warehouses in Zhangjiagang reservoir area was 39000 tons, down by 2100 tons from last week. On the whole, the performance of diethylene glycol supply side was fair; From the perspective of demand, the commencement of unsaturated resin in the downstream increased slightly this week, and the demand for diethylene glycol remained stable, so there was some support on the demand side. In general, the cost side support is relatively strong, the supply and demand fundamentals support is relatively stable, and the market price continues to rise.

East China Port Arrival Schedule this week and next week

At present, the crude oil market returns to the basic guidance, and it is expected that the international crude oil price will fluctuate and fall, and the cost support of diethylene glycol will be weak; Although the port inventory is stable, the next arrival volume is large, and the expected restart of a 280000 ton unit of Wuhan Petrochemical next week, the domestic output increases, the supply side performance is poor, and in the short term, the downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers are mainly operating at a low level, so the demand for diethylene glycol is difficult to significantly increase. The diethylene glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the cost side support is insufficient, the supply side is affected by the negative impact, and the demand is relatively stable, The short-term market price of diethylene glycol has the possibility of a narrow decline.