Price trend

According to data from the bulk list of business news agencies, the trend of the vitamin market this week continues to be weak, with weak demand. The prices of most products continue to decline, and the trading of individual varieties is relatively active.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, the vitamin C market fell slightly this week, with the average price of food grade vitamin C at 26.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the week and 26 yuan/kg at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.26%. The overall trading volume of vitamin C market is light, with a large number of small orders traded. The downstream market just needs to enter the market, and the demand is weak. The overall market situation is mostly in line with the market, with no significant positive support for the time being, and the operation is weak.

The price of vitamin A continued to decline this week, with the average price of feed grade vitamin A at the beginning of the week at 92.5 yuan/kg and at the end of the week at 92.25 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.27% during the week. The current mainstream market quotation is 88-92 yuan/kg, while the European market quotation has dropped to 23.5-25 euros/kg. The vitamin A market has maintained a weak downward trend, with domestic vitamin A oversupply and weak demand, making it difficult to overcome the weakness of vitamin A.

The price of vitamin E has not fluctuated much this week, with the current mainstream price quoted in the VE market ranging from 75-80 yuan per ton. The quotation for the European market is 8.2-8.4 euros/kg. The willingness of factories to stand up to prices is obvious, but the push up is weak. Market trading is slightly active, and market attention has increased.

Aftermarket Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamin markets are still weak and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. In the future, they will closely monitor the production, sales, and market trends of enterprises.

Price trend

In mid March, the domestic EVA market was stagnant after rising, and spot prices were mixed. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 20, the average ex-factory price of EVA in China was 16766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.71% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, the market for ethylene at the raw material end has shown a steady but weak performance. In the early stage, the shutdown and maintenance benefits of South Korean devices have been exhausted. In addition, the supply of goods from Europe and the United States is about to arrive in Hong Kong, and the market supply of goods is gradually increasing. The cost side price of petroleum naphtha also declined as crude oil fell, and overall, ethylene fundamentals were weak. The domestic downstream factories of vinyl acetate are generally operating, and on-site consumption tends to be just in demand. The supply side is relatively abundant, causing a drag on the spot market. The superimposed cost side has weakened, and the current spot market for vinyl acetate is temporarily not positive, with prices finishing in a weak position. The market for raw materials has weakened, giving poor support to the EVA market.

On the supply side:

In mid March, the load of domestic EVA increased rapidly due to the resumption of work by multiple production enterprises. The current industry operating rate is 91.4%, up about 12.1% from the previous ten days. At the same time, domestic production increased simultaneously, with a total output of 41600 tons last week, an increase of 5400 tons compared to the previous week. The impact of rising factory inventory pressure is not obvious, and factory factory prices are running at a competitive price. However, social inventory has started to rise, and traders have operated to sell profits and take orders. Within the range, mainstream brand spot prices accounted for the majority of the horizontal trend, and overall, supplier support for spot prices has weakened.

Demand:

Recently, the domestic market atmosphere of EVA has been mixed, and there are also differences in downstream market prices in different directions. The smooth delivery of photovoltaic materials and optimistic consumption are the main support for the current downstream of EVA. On the other hand, the demand for foaming materials is relatively weak. Terminal enterprises have lagged behind in follow-up, consumption of footwear materials and other aspects has not improved compared to the previous period, and there is little intra-field trading. Enterprises tend to maintain production in their stocking operations, with a heavy market wait-and-see atmosphere and resistance to high-priced sources of goods. Demand side support is strong and weak, with general support for EVA price quotations.

Aftermarket Forecast

Overall, the EVA market performance in mid March was generally stagnant, with prices stabilizing slightly. The raw material market turned down, reducing the support for EVA spot products. Downstream demand differentiation is evident, with photovoltaic materials and foam materials becoming stronger and weaker, and overall, there is a stalemate in support of EVA demand side. EVA polymerization plant inventory pressure is acceptable, and traders’ inventory position is on the high side. The stock removal operation on the market superimposes the divergence of mentality among the operators. Currently, the market offers are chaotic, and arbitrage and order taking operations are increasing. The market is intertwined between long and short periods, and it is expected that the current domestic EVA market will focus on digesting inventory, and prices may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

The acrylonitrile market has declined slightly since March. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 20, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10375 yuan/ton, down 1.19% from 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Currently, the market price of acrylonitrile is between 10200 and 10500 yuan/ton from the tank. The price of raw materials decreased, and the cost of acrylonitrile declined; Acrylonitrile supply side slightly decreased; In addition, although the prices of downstream ABS and polyacrylamide have weakened, there is still a strong need for support, and the acrylonitrile market is currently slightly deadlocked.

Since March, the domestic acrylonitrile operating rate has been between 60% and 70%.

Since March, the raw material propylene market has declined, and the cost of acrylonitrile has declined. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 20, the domestic propylene price was 7176 yuan/ton, down 4.60% from 7522 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Downstream ABS prices have declined, but the commencement of industrial units is still around 80%, and there is still a strong need for support for acrylonitrile; In early March, the 65000 ton/year nitrile rubber plant in Shunze, Ningbo, was shut down, and the domestic nitrile rubber production started lower, with slightly weaker support for acrylonitrile. Polyacrylamide prices have fallen, and stable construction operations have weak support for acrylonitrile.

Future Forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the Business Agency believe that the current supply and demand of acrylonitrile is slightly deadlocked, but the cost side is downward. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market may decline slightly in the future.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of March 17, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black was 5750.00 yuan/ton. This week, the white carbon black market operated smoothly, compared to the same period last week, with the overall market operating smoothly, with the mainstream price of 5700 yuan/ton.

This week, the stable operation of the white carbon black market is dominated, and the price remains stable. The mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiation is stable, with contract customers as the main focus, and downstream procurement on demand. The number of new orders is limited.

Chemical index: On March 16, the chemical index stood at 920 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.29% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 53.85% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 
“The white carbon black analyst of the Business Society believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main factor in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 10, 2023, the domestic market price of silicone DMC was 16960 yuan/ton. Compared with the price on March 5, 2023 (the reference price of silicone DMC was 17380 yuan/ton), the price was reduced by 280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.42%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that at the beginning of March, the domestic silicone DMC market has started a weak decline, and entered this week (3.06-3.10). The decline of the silicone DMC market has not stopped, and the overall focus of the market continues to decline. The main influencing factor for the continuous decline of silicone DMC market comes from the demand side. The overall performance of the downstream demand of the silicone DMC is still calm, the transmission of supply and demand is slow, the new orders received by the downstream are not followed up in time, the overall supply of the silicone DMC is under pressure, the contradiction between supply and demand is emerging, and the silicone DMC market is back to the repair stage. As of March 10, the domestic silicone DMC market price is around 16800-17000 yuan/ton, with a decline of about 200-400 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the week.

Future trend forecast of silicone DMC market

At present, the supply side of organic silicon DMC is actively regulated. Some factories have shutdown and maintenance plans this month. The overall operating rate of organic silicon DMC has been reduced. The overall downstream demand still needs to be carried out gradually. The supply and demand sides are in tune with each other. The organic silicon DMC data analyst of the business agency believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market is mainly subject to narrow adjustment and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Agency, the nickel price fell slightly this week. As of March 10, the spot nickel quotation was 185650 yuan/ton, down 4.47% from the beginning of the week and 23.04% year-on-year.

Weekly rise and fall chart of nickel

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the Business News Agency, the nickel price has risen by 4 and fallen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, and the nickel price has declined in a weak way recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro side, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said in his testimony to the Congress this week that the Federal Reserve might accelerate the pace of interest rate increase and raise the interest rate to a higher level than previously expected, which increased people’s concerns about economic activity and global industrial metal demand. China’s CPI fell in February, with a year-on-year increase of 1%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and 0.5% lower than the previous month; The production recovery of industrial enterprises accelerated, the market demand improved, and the PPI was flat on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%. The year-on-year decrease was 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month.

In terms of supply: the newly built pure nickel capacity is still to be released, and domestic smelters also have incremental expectations. The supply tension of pure nickel has eased. Since the beginning of the year, the supply of nickel market has been significantly sufficient. It is expected that the pure nickel output will be in a climbing state in March. The import side is expected to increase after the news of Russian nickel mixed pricing came out last week.

In terms of demand: although the contradiction of stainless steel supply is difficult to solve for a while, it also forces some enterprises to start the maintenance plan in advance, and the stainless steel went to the warehouse in a small scale last week, and the demand showed a warming signal; In the new energy vehicle industry, according to the data, the global sales of new energy vehicles in January 2023 was 658000, with a year-on-year increase of 12%, penetration rate of 12.1%, and China’s share of 56.9%. At the same time, the policy helped to stimulate demand, and the share of new energy vehicles market was expected to increase unchanged.

To sum up, the current nickel price has reached the cost line of nickel electrodeposition from nickel sulfate, which may temporarily support the nickel price. However, Russian nickel import is expected to be strong, and domestic refined nickel smelting has not heard of any disturbance. The overall supply increment is expected to remain unchanged for the time being. In the peak season of gold, silver and silver, consumer demand slowly recovered. The short-term macro market suppressed the metal price, and the supply and demand increased. It is expected that the short-term low volatility of nickel price will prevail.

The butadiene rubber market has declined slightly since March. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 13, the domestic price of polybutadiene rubber was 11820 yuan/ton, down 2.31% from 12100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene fell, and the cost support of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber weakened; During the period, the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber supplier was reduced by 200~300 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants was slightly lower. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company was 11700 yuan/ton as of March 13. As of the 13th, the mainstream market of butadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi and Sichuan reported 11700~11900 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market of private butadiene rubber reported 11750~11850 yuan/ton.

The supply of polybutadiene rubber has fluctuated slightly since March.

Since March, the price of raw material butadiene has declined, and the cost support of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has weakened. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 13, the price of butadiene was 9166 yuan/ton, down 5.62% from 9712 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Since March, the natural rubber market has declined, and the impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is on the short side. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of natural rubber was 11630 yuan/ton as of March 13, down 3.24% from 12020 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Since March, the construction of downstream tires has risen slightly, but affected by the continuous decline in the price of natural rubber, the purchase of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is not active. It is understood that by the first ten days of March 2023, the starting load of all steel tires of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 6.9%; The starting load of semi-steel tire of domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.3%.

Aftermarket forecast: analysts from the Business Agency believe that at present, the supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fluctuates slightly, and the enterprise maintenance and restart plan coexist in the later stage; The inventory of downstream raw materials is gradually consumed, but due to the low price of natural rubber, the purchase of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is not good. It is expected that the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will be consolidated in a narrow range in the short term, and attention will be paid to the accumulation and destocking of natural rubber in the future.

From March 3 to March 10, 2023, the market price of antimony ingots in East China was temporarily stable, with the price of 86750 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 86750 yuan/ton at the end of this week, which was flat.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent upward trend of antimony ingot market before and after the Spring Festival, entered a stable period after the middle of March, entered a downward channel in the middle of April, the decline slowed down at the end of April, the trend was stable in May, the price entered an upward channel in June, and then went down again after a brief stable period in July. After August, the market stabilized step by step, and remained flat for eight consecutive weeks. At the end of October, the price began to decline continuously, and after December, the price continued to recover.

European strategic small metal antimony price this week (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ March 3/ March 10/ Up and down

European small metal antimony/ 12700./12600./-100

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony was slightly reduced near the weekend, to 12600 US dollars/ton on March 10, and to 100 US dollars/ton on Friday. The market atmosphere was somewhat wait-and-see during the week.

This week, the market price of antimony ingots remained stable, the market transaction was still weak, and the negotiation was slightly cold. Convenience of supply and demand has not changed much this week. Supply is still slightly tight and demand is weak. The smelter still has a strong attitude of price fixing, the market traders’ quotations are stable, and the downstream maintains just in need of procurement. This week, the price of small metals in Europe slightly corrected, and the market is also in a wait-and-see mood, waiting for the further trend of the market. In the future, the price of antimony ingots will remain stable for the time being.

Antimony oxide price trend this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ March 3/ March 10/ Up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide./75500./75500./0

99.8% antimony trioxide./77000./77000./0

This week, the antimony oxide market continued to maintain a temporary stable operation, the market started relatively smoothly, and the overall operation remained temporarily stable, with slightly light trading volume.

The non-ferrous index stood at 1141 points on March 9, down 2 points from yesterday, down 25.81% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and up 87.97% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the rare earth market price index continued to decline in February, and the domestic rare earth market trend declined. The rare earth index was 625 points on February 27, down 8 points from yesterday, down 37.93% from the highest point in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 130.63% from the lowest point 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The prices of neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium praseodymium neodymium oxide and metal praseodymium neodymium all declined in China. As of the end of the month, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 820000 yuan/ton, down 8.89% in February; The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 682500 yuan/ton, and the monthly price fell by 8.70%; The price of neodymium oxide was 705000 yuan/ton, and the monthly price fell by 11.88%; The price of neodymium metal was 895000 yuan/ton, and the price trend fell by 9.14% in February; The price of praseodymium metal was 890000 yuan/ton, and the monthly price decreased by 4.81%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 672500 yuan/ton, down 5.94% in February.

The domestic light rare earth market demand is difficult to improve. The downstream magnetic material enterprises still focus on digesting the inventory. The order situation is poor, and the purchase is very light. The metal demand situation in the rare earth market has not improved. Some metal factories have almost no transactions. In addition, the transaction situation of the rare earth oxide inquiry is not optimistic, and the prices of the holders continue to decline. In the near future, the downstream procurement is very cold, coupled with the gradual resumption of production enterprises, the supply of light rare earth market is increasing, and the negative factors are superimposed, and the domestic light rare earth market price is mainly declining.

The price of domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series fell back, and the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.16 million yuan/ton by the end of the month, with a decline of 12.20% in February; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.16 million yuan/ton, down 11.84% in February; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.965 million yuan/ton, and the monthly price fell 7.63%; The price of domestic terbium is mainly declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 12.45 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 16.05 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earths has continued to decline, the production enterprises in Sichuan and other places have started to rise, and the downstream procurement is scarce. The oversupply has made the market price decline difficult to change. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price decline in the heavy rare earth market has been restrained to some extent.

According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 425000 and 408000 respectively in January 2023, down 46.6% and 49.9% on a month-on-month basis, down 6.9% and 6.3% on a year-on-year basis, and the market share reached 24.7%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have declined, the demand for new energy has declined, and the price trend of domestic rare earth market has declined.

The recent purchase list of rare earth downstream businesses shows poor demand. In addition to the increase in upstream supply, the contradiction between supply and demand is acute, and the transaction situation is rare. In the short term, the price of rare earth market is mainly declining. In the long term, the new energy vehicles, wind power, and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth are sustainable development. The demand in the new energy field is still guaranteed, and the development of rare earth industry is optimistic.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the market price of butadiene declined in a narrow range. From February 27 to March 3, the domestic market price of butadiene fell from 9887 yuan/ton to 9712 yuan/ton. The price fell by 1.77% in the cycle, with a year-on-year increase of 4.63% and 14.11%.

The domestic butadiene market fell from a high level. Due to the limited follow-up of synthetic rubber, the profit was under pressure, which affected the decline of industrial operating rate and the gradual weakening of butadiene market demand.

In terms of cost and crude oil: although it is worried that the increase of interest rates in Europe may affect economic growth, the demand of Indian refineries has reached a record high, and the economic data of China is improving, and the international oil price continues to rise. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract 78.16 rose 0.47 US dollars/barrel or 0.60%; ICE oil distribution futures 05 contract 84.75 rose 0.44 US dollars/barrel or 0.52%. In terms of naphtha, the international crude oil rose slightly, and the market may continue to follow up. At present, the merchants have different attitudes and are cautious in chasing up the high price. Naphtha continues to be high, and the main benefit comes from the support just needed for the local refining and reforming

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene in Sinopec’s sales companies was reduced by 200 yuan/ton to 9800 yuan/ton. Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 t/a butadiene extraction unit is in stable operation, and the 600 t supply is planned to continue bidding for export. The bidding base price is temporarily referred to 8400 yuan/t. The 64000 t/a butadiene extraction unit of Shenhua Ningxia Coal was temporarily shut down in the evening of February 27. Butadiene supply side was negative.

On the demand side, the raw material butadiene market has declined, while the synthetic rubber market has fluctuated. Due to the limited follow-up of synthetic rubber, the profit was under pressure, which affected the decline of the industry operating rate. The demand for butadiene is weak.

In terms of external market: the closing price of butadiene in Asia fell on March 2: the FOB price in South Korea was $1175-1185/ton, down $20/ton; China CFR News was 1195-1205 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 795-805 US dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 865-875 euros/ton.

Region/. country./closing price./up and down

Asia/ FOB Korea/ 1175-1185 US dollars/ton/ -20 yuan/ton

Asia/ CFR China/ 1195-1205 US dollars/ton/ -$20/ton

Europe and America/ FOB Rotterdam/ USD 795-805/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe/ FD Northwest Europe/ 865-875 euros/ton/ 0 Euro/ton

In the future, it is predicted that due to the poor profit, the capacity utilization rate of the synthetic rubber industry will decline significantly, the demand for butadiene will weaken, the resource side of superimposed shipment will increase, and the supply and demand will be weak. Butadiene analysts of the Business Agency predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term.