1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price first rose and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 141300 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the nickel price rose slightly to 151416.67 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 7.16% and a year-on-year increase of 25.87%. The nickel price has fluctuated upward since it fell to the lowest price of the year on April 21 this year, reaching the highest price of 159866.67 yuan / ton on October 21 this year, also reaching a new high of more than a decade, and then fell slightly.

Macro factors: the market situation is greatly affected by the macro, and the epidemic affects the economy. In order to restore the economy, countries have actively implemented loose monetary policy, and the financial attribute of metals has emerged, boosting the rise of commodity prices.

Global nickel supply tension intensifies

name Reduce production

Vale The output was reduced from 165000 to 170000 tons, lower than the 200000 tons previously predicted.

BHP Billiton Nickel production decreased by 20% in the third quarter

Norilsk Nickel Production decreased by 23%

Indonesia India said last month that it plans to ban or tax the export of nickel ore to keep more metals at home and support the development of Indonesia’s electric vehicle battery industry.

the Philippines Nickel production in 2021 is 10% lower than that in previous years

Nickel market supply shortage: according to the latest report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on Wednesday, the global nickel market supply shortage was 83100 tons from January to August 2021, while the annual surplus in 2020 was 84200 tons. From January to August 2021, the global nickel output was 1799200 tons and the demand was 1882200 tons, with a shortage of 83100 tons. In addition, from January to August 2021, the global apparent demand for nickel increased by 384000 tons compared with the same period last year; In August 2021, the global nickel output was 258900 tons and the demand was 285900 tons.

Decline in imports: the epidemic continues to have an impact on the supply chain, route congestion in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans, and it is more difficult for consumers to obtain raw materials such as nickel. According to the data of China’s customs, the import of nickel ore decreased by 1.61% month on month and 8.45% year-on-year in September; In September, the import of ferronickel decreased by 12.34% month on month and 10.09% year-on-year; In September, the import of stainless steel decreased by 17.38% month on month, and the export increased by 9.57% month on month.

LME nickel inventory

Nickel industry chain

Downstream: the data of new energy vehicles is strong. Since the second half of this year, the data has been rising continuously, and the sales volume reached a record 357000 in September. Recently, Tesla signed an order for 42000 tons of nickel. The downstream stainless steel plant purchased ferronickel with high profits, and the low inventory supported the price.

High nickel matte has not been delivered: previously, QS industry signed a high nickel matte supply agreement with Huayou cobalt and Zhongwei shares on the afternoon of March 1, 2021. The three parties jointly agreed that QS industry will supply 60000 tons of high nickel matte to Huayou cobalt industry and 40000 tons of high nickel matte to Zhongwei Co., Ltd. within one year from October 2021. Recently, we were asked about the delivery of QS and its high matte nickel on the investor interaction platform. Huayou cobalt said that the purchase business of relevant nickel raw materials will be determined according to the progress of relevant projects and market changes. At present, relevant nickel raw materials have not been delivered. Previously expected

To sum up: the Philippines has entered the rainy season, the supply is becoming more and more tight, and the domestic ferronickel plants are limited by power production restriction. Meanwhile, Vale estimates that the production will be reduced in the fourth quarter, and the supply is expected to tighten. High nickel matte has not been delivered, which supports the nickel price. In the fourth quarter, with consumption gradually weakening and weak supply and demand, it is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate mainly in the range of 140000-155000 yuan / ton in November.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. As of October 24, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 16166.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.23% over the average price of 14666.67 yuan / ton on October 18, and an increase of 19.75% over the same period last month.

On October 24, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 152.29, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 197.56% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to decline. International crude oil rose and domestic chemical prices rose; The operating rate of downstream unsaturated resin increased, and the downstream unsaturated resin operated at a high level, mainly in need of procurement. As of the 24th, Shandong’s solid anhydride was about 15500 yuan / ton, Jiangsu’s 16000 yuan / ton, Shanxi’s 16000 yuan / ton, Hebei’s 15000 yuan / ton and South China’s 16000 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene fell after rising this week. On October 17, the average price of pure benzene was 8440 yuan / ton, and on October 24, the average price of pure benzene was 8340 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, or 1.18%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong fell, from 8350 yuan / ton last weekend to 8050 yuan / ton this weekend, down 300 yuan / ton. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 6360 yuan / ton as of October 24.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 42nd week of 2021 (10.18-10.22), there are 50 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 15 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 15% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (53.29%), ammonium sulfate (41.18%) and chloroform (22.60%). A total of 27 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 9 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were yellow phosphorus (- 16.67%), phosphoric acid (- 13.83%) and acetic acid (- 11.25%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.81%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the supply of domestic maleic anhydride market is limited, some factories execute early orders, the factories have no inventory pressure, the price is high, and the market is mostly on the sidelines. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on October 25, the price of hydrogen peroxide opened the diving market, and the price fell sharply, with a one-day decline of 19.74%, 16.93% lower than that on October 18.

Negative factors depress the diving of hydrogen peroxide Market

After the national day, the steam cost of hydrogen peroxide unit increased due to the rise of coal price. In addition to the terminal caprolactam, the rigid demand support of the paper printing industry, the increase in procurement, and the tight supply of some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers, supported by multiple favorable factors, hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have raised the ex factory price of hydrogen peroxide, and the rise of hydrogen peroxide is amazing. On October 18, the average price of hydrogen peroxide broke through 1700 yuan / ton, with a single day increase of more than 30%.

After several rounds of sharp rise in hydrogen peroxide Market, near the last week of the end of the month, due to the influence of power restriction policy, the demand of the terminal turned weak. The continuously rising hydrogen peroxide market was returned to its original shape, and the price plunged sharply. On October 25, the one-day decline was close to 20%.

On October 25, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide in Luxi, Shandong was 1220 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton in a single day; Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 1300 yuan / ton, down 450 yuan / ton in a single day; Quansheng chemical hydrogen peroxide quoted 1750 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton in a single day.

Affected by dual control factors, the market of terminal paper and caprolactam stabilized

This week, due to the impact of dual control, some enterprises did not resume supply, the supply was tight, the price was at a high level, the terminal purchased on demand, the caprolactam market was stable, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide decreased.

Affected by the dual control policy, the paper market also ushered in a rise. Due to the rapid rise of hydrogen peroxide Market, the purchasing enthusiasm of the paper industry decreased, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide was poor.

Business community hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that: hydrogen peroxide is currently in a rational correction period, the early rise is too strong, and the price is expected to be weak in the future.

Commodity index: on October 21, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 102.34, the same as yesterday, down 4.47% from the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (2019-05-08), and up 23.46% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Data monitoring shows that after the National Day holiday, the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s market continues to rise, with a large range and chaotic quotation. Affected by the substantial increase in the cost of fuel and raw materials, the price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) rose from about 16750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to about 17250 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.99%.

From the macro level, the price of petrochemical raw materials has decreased slightly after the policy intervention on coal, the cost pressure of fuel and raw materials related to water treatment is still great, and the current price is still strong. From the perspective of industry, with the intervention of national policies, the rising momentum of basic chemicals has eased, and the spot prices in the market are quite different; Affected by the cost and price of raw materials, water treatment enterprises have recently adjusted their product quotation, and still require their customers to set prices on the same day, queue up to pick up goods, make payments, expire and become invalid, so the supply side has a greater voice. Among them, the market of raw material acrylonitrile has been maintained at about 14950-15000 yuan / ton. It is reported that the production capacity of korur chemical phase II was increased by 130000 tons in October, that of lihuayi group was increased by 260000 tons at the end of November, that of Tianchen Qixiang new material was increased by 130000 tons at the end of November, and that of Sibang Petrochemical phase III was increased by 260000 tons at the beginning of 2022. The northern market tends to be saturated, Its downstream demand growth rate is lower than that of the supply side, resulting in oversupply.

The market of acrylic acid, another main raw material, has continued to rise since October, but the range has narrowed. On the 18th, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 18900 yuan / ton, and on the 22nd, it was 19100 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.06%. Recently, the upstream propylene market has declined, the cost support has weakened, and the market supply and demand are in tight balance to support the market. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will mainly operate at a high level in the short term.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG was 6160 yuan / ton on the 18th and 6744 yuan / ton on the 22nd, up 9.48% week on week. Recently, the temperature dropped sharply, the heating season came, the demand side support increased, the market trading was positive, the sales pressure of liquid plants was small, and the price of feed gas increased, the supply in some regions was tightened, and the cost supply continued to boost the market. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will maintain an upward trend, but considering that the downstream acceptance still needs to be followed up after the continuous rise, the increase slowed down, Narrow amplitude fluctuation is dominant.

As for the future market, the support of raw materials acrylic acid and acrylonitrile is temporarily stable, and the trend is weak; The downstream demand for water treatment is under great pressure and the procurement enthusiasm is not strong. It is expected that the local market of polyacrylamide will remain high in the short term, but the trend of raw materials is weak and the demand is limited. It is likely that the future market will gradually weaken.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene fell after a wide rise this week. On October 10, the price of pure benzene was 7950-8550 yuan / ton (average price 8170 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (October 17), the price of pure benzene was 8350-8550 yuan / ton (average price 8440 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 270 yuan / ton, or 3.3%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 151.19%.

2、 Analysis and review

During the national day, driven by the news that new units were put into operation in the downstream of Shandong, downstream enterprises invited tenders for many times, the market atmosphere was positive and the enterprise inventory decreased; In addition, crude oil rose broadly, the bulk commodity market rose generally, the pure benzene market rose positively, and the price rose broadly. As styrene stopped rising and turned down, and bulk commodities generally fell, the pure benzene market took profits and the price followed the downward trend. The trading volume in Shandong became lighter and the center of gravity moved down. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton to 8300-8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, it fell after rising this week. On Friday (October 15), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $1012 / T, up US $51 / T, or 5.31%, compared with October 8; The reference import price in East China was US $1065 / T, up US $35 / T or 3.4% month on month on October 8.

In terms of crude oil, global natural gas prices soared, crude oil supply was expected to be tight, energy supply was in short supply in winter, international oil prices rose continuously, and WTI oil prices exceeded US $80 / barrel. On October 8, Brent rose $2.47 / barrel, or 3%; WTI rose $2.93/barrel, or 3.69%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell after rising this week. On October 15, the price of sample enterprises was 9920 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.08% over last week and 65.33% over the same period last year. During the week, the price of styrene continued to rise, driven by the continuous rise of crude oil, the general rise of bulk commodities and the rise of pure benzene, which slightly repaired the profit of styrene production.

Aniline: several sets of aniline units operate under reduced load, and the supply of aniline in the spot market is tight; The price of raw materials is rising continuously, and the cost price is high; The downstream delivery mood was stable, and aniline continued to rise during the week. On October 15, the price of aniline in Shandong was 13200-13560 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 13500-13600 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the demand for energy increases in winter, the demand for fuel oil is improving, the global energy supply is tight, the pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the oil price is expected to remain high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: raw materials have room for rise in the short term, and the cost side will give strong support to styrene. In addition to the overhaul expectations of shell phase I and Guangzhou Petrochemical in the short term, there is a possibility of demand recovery in the downstream.

Strong support for crude oil and still boost the price of pure benzene; The short-term trend of downstream styrene is expected to be strong. Overall, the trend of pure benzene is expected to stabilize and fluctuate strongly next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.

In October, the domestic dimethyl ether market rose and fell like a “roller coaster”. In the first ten days of October, the high prices of dimethyl ether emerged one after another. However, since the 13th, the driving force for the rise of dimethyl ether was insufficient and began to fall continuously. On the 18th, the price stopped falling and ushered in a rebound. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 6312.50 yuan / ton on October 13 and 5710.00 yuan / ton on October 19, with a decrease of 9.54% and an increase of 60.28% compared with September 1.

As of October 19, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% October 19th 6000 yuan / ton

Hebei region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% October 19th 6100 yuan / ton

Henan region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% October 19th 5660-5850 yuan / ton

It is obvious from the trend chart that the dimethyl ether market rose broadly in early October, but from the 13th, the action force in the dimethyl ether Market was insufficient, and the price ushered in a correction. Due to the sharp drop in the price of raw methanol, which brought obvious bad news to the market, and the rapid rise in the price in the early stage and insufficient cost support, the manufacturers made profits one after another and mainly shipped goods. During this period, some manufacturers implemented the minimum guarantee policy to stimulate the downstream to enter the market. Until the 18th, the dimethyl ether Market stopped falling and rebounded, and the civil liquefied gas market rose one after another to boost the market mentality. The downstream mentality was better and the market entry was positive. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market was significantly improved, and the dimethyl ether market ushered in a rebound.

Cost methanol market. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol producers in Shandong was 4187 yuan / ton on October 19, down 2.05% from the previous working day. On October 19, the price of methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange closed lower and closed at 3819 yuan / ton, up 11 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest ex factory prices in Shaanxi, Mongolia and other places have been introduced, but the overall transaction situation is temporarily limited, the freight is strong, and traders operate with caution. Methanol cost support is still obvious, but the demand has not been significantly improved.

Although the current methanol market fell, the decline narrowed. The continuous rise in the civil market of liquefied gas of related products has significantly boosted the dimethyl ether Market. In addition, the weather has cooled significantly in terms of demand, especially in the northern market, the terminal demand has increased significantly, the downstream market entry is more positive, and the market favorable factors still exist. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market may still have room for rise in a short period of time.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea mixed price first rose and then fell this week. The quotation first rose from 3061.67 yuan / ton on October 11 to 3091.67 yuan / ton on October 14, an increase of 0.98%, and then fell to 3058.33 yuan / ton on October 15, a decrease of 1.08%, a year-on-year increase of 81.32%. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, and the urea commodity index was 142.25 on October 15.

Cost support was strengthened, downstream demand was enhanced, and urea supply decreased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3150 yuan / ton this weekend, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 3100 yuan / ton this weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Guangzhou Bangyi urea quoted 3000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea rose sharply this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, and the quotation increased from 5783.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6810.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 17.75%, a year-on-year increase of 134.83% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal rose sharply. The quotation increased from 2045.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2327.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 13.81%, a year-on-year increase of 274.65% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 5075.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5225.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.96%, a year-on-year increase of 63.28% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose sharply this week, from 17900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 18700.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.47%.

From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply has decreased, and the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons. Internationally: China’s Urea Export began to be limited, or further pushed up the international urea price. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In late October, the domestic urea market rose slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, and the future market price may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride fell this week. This week, the average price of mainstream factory quotation of domestic potassium chloride decreased from 3270.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2890.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 11.62%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 50.13% year-on-year. Overall, the potassium chloride market fell this week, and the potassium chloride commodity index was 91.75 on October 15.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers fell this week: the factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was 2890 yuan / ton, down 380 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Anhui kaimi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation is 3800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution quotation is 3800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 3700-3900 yuan / ton, and that of 60% red particles is about 3700-3800 yuan / ton; The price of 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 3500 yuan / ton; The arrival price of 60% potassium in Qinghai is about 3270 yuan / ton. There is a tight supply of marketable potash fertilizer in China. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low and the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient. It is said that the salt lake company may stop production for maintenance in November.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of potassium chloride Market in late October or high consolidation. The international demand for potash fertilizer is strong, but the domestic available supply is in short supply. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the short-term potassium chloride market is dominated by high-level consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose sharply this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 74065 yuan / ton, up 5.9% from 69940 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 27.8% from the beginning of the week and 44.14% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has increased by 6 and decreased by 6. Recently, it has fallen more or less.

Macro aspect: in the second half of this week, crude oil hit new highs and the US dollar fell sharply, boosting metal prices.

Supply: in September 2021, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 406000 tons, with a month on month increase of 3.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 43.8%. From January to September 2021, the cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 4019000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%, and the average price was 60400 yuan per ton, an increase of 37.9%. Local smelters in Jiangsu will continue to be affected by power rationing, and the capacity utilization rate will be maintained at about 50%

In terms of demand: power rationing in some main copper rod production areas in East and South China will affect the commencement. In September 2021, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 84.32%, an increase of 0.55% month on month. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises is expected to be 82.32% in October.

LME copper inventories fell this week

Annual comparison chart of copper

According to the annual comparison chart of business society, the price of copper this year is higher than that in recent two years, and the price of copper was strong in October this year.

To sum up, the import of recycled copper dropped sharply, the social inventory fell, and the support below the copper price was strong. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in September ended the downward trend, boosting the confidence of the copper market. Low inventory in copper market supports the current price. In the near future, it is expected that the short-term fluctuation of copper price is strong, mainly running.

After the festival, the domestic MIBK market went down in a narrow range, high and low ends coexisted after the festival, and then the offer went down. The reference offer was 22000-22500 yuan / ton, and the on-site high-end offer was 23000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market offer was 23275 yuan / ton on October 8 and 22400 yuan / ton on October 13, with a market decline of 3.67%. Supported by the maintenance news in the later stage, the shippers mainly offer high prices, and the industrial chain is the main player as a whole. The traders have a positive attitude and most of the quotations are high.

From the raw material side, the domestic acetone market rose first and then fell after the festival. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, taking the market offer in East China as an example, the market offer in East China was 6400 yuan / ton on October 8 and 6800 yuan / ton on October 13, up 7.03%, and the highest negotiation in the middle was 7000 yuan / ton. The acetone market was significantly higher supported by upstream raw materials, but the downstream acceptance was limited, and the cargo holders sold goods at a profit. The East China market declined significantly over the weekend, and the factory decreased by 100 yuan / ton. In terms of the national market, the current negotiation space is 6800-7100 yuan / ton. Offers from major mainstream regions are as follows: 6800 yuan / ton in East China, 7500 yuan / ton in South China, and 7000-7100 yuan / ton in Yanshan and Shandong.

The downstream rubber additives market is stable, the accelerator starts at a low level and the demand support is limited. Under the influence of policies, the downstream tire industry starts at a low level and the overall demand is weak.

From the perspective of business community, there is little short-term change at both ends of supply and demand. Business community expects to sort out the short-term market range.