After the Spring Festival, the domestic bisphenol a market has a good start, which is mainly affected by the upstream raw materials and supported by the cost side. During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil rebounded sharply, the raw material pure benzene phenol / acetone rose, and bisphenol A and downstream liquid epoxy resin / PC followed up. After the festival, major domestic factories released short-term maintenance plans, and the factories increased by 400-500 yuan / ton. After the festival, Changchun chemical bisphenol a rose to 19000 yuan / ton, followed by the market to 19000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer in East China was 18562 yuan / ton on February 7, and the average market offer rose to 19000 yuan / ton on February 11, with an overall increase of 2.36% during the week.

After the festival, the support of double raw materials is strong, the raw material market remains high, and the mentality of all nodes of the industrial chain is positive under the support of cost. The phenol factory rose again, and the market also rose 100-200 again. Up to now, the factory’s guiding price is 11400-11500 yuan / ton, and the market offer in East China is 11350-11400 yuan / ton. The acetone market is steadily rising, and the factories are collectively adjusted after the festival. The mainstream offer of the factories is 6000 yuan / ton. So far, the negotiation in East China is 6000 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas is 6000 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China is 6100 yuan / ton.

Downstream epoxy resin followed the upward trend, and the market continued to operate at a high level under the support of cost.

The domestic epoxy resin market offer is stable, the dual raw materials are at a high level, and the cost is difficult to fluctuate. So far, the liquid epoxy resin market offer in East China is 28800-29800 yuan / ton, delivered in barrels, and the solid resin market offer is 24500-24800 yuan / ton. In particular, liquid epoxy resin increased by 1500-2000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival.

From the perspective of business society, the supply of bisphenol a market after the festival is still not abundant, the cost support is strong, and the downstream epoxy resin is also gradually improving. On Thursday, the bidding in East China rose to 17000 yuan / ton, compared with 1500 yuan / ton before the festival. After a period of rise, it also depends on the terminal digestion. Business society expects the bisphenol a market to maintain a high and stable situation in the short term

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 10, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 11766 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 9366 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 2400 yuan / ton, or 25.62%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that on the first day of construction after the Spring Festival, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong ushered in a sharp rise, which has exceeded 27% in just three days. During the Spring Festival holiday, the rise of crude oil gave the operators some confidence. In addition, the spot supply of n-butanol on the site was tight. On the first day of construction (the 7th), the large n-butanol plant in Shandong resumed opening, that is, the ex factory price of n-butanol was significantly increased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. The ex factory price of n-butanol of the plant was referred to as 11800 yuan / ton. The overall atmosphere in the venue is improving. Other large factories have also raised the ex factory price of n-butanol by 1500-2200 yuan / ton. On the 7th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was referred to as 11100-12000 yuan / ton. On the 8th, supported by the small supply pressure of the factory and the opening of demand after the festival, the trading atmosphere on the site was more active, and the center of gravity of n-butanol continued to move upward. On the 8th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 11500-12000 yuan / ton. On the 9th, the downstream demand slowed down, the n-butanol market operated smoothly, and the downstream resisted high prices. On the 10th, the offer of Shandong n-butanol large factory was lowered by 200 yuan / ton. The price adjustment of large factory has loosened the overall market of n-butanol, but the overall performance of the market is still high. As of the 10th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 11500-11800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 11766 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 25% after the festival.

In terms of upstream propylene, after the festival, the domestic propylene market ushered in a wave of rise, in which propylene (Shandong) rose to 8300-8350 yuan / ton. The long-span rise in prices is mainly affected by two factors. First, crude oil prices rose strongly during the Spring Festival, forming obvious support on the cost side; Second, the supply and demand side of propylene has not been fully restored, some propylene plants have not returned to work, and the transportation is not smooth due to festivals and weather, resulting in tight supply in the region and further contributing to the rise of propylene. Forecast: in terms of cost and supply and demand, there is still some room for propylene to rise in the short-term market.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-butanol has a weakening trend, and the support of the supply side is OK. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong is more stable, medium and narrow adjustment and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of supply and demand.

Product Name: organosilicon DMC

Latest price (February 9): 31420 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on February 9, the overall stable operation of domestic silicone DMC market. On the 9th, the factory quotation of domestic silicone DMC was around 31000-31500 yuan / ton, the average price reference was opened one after another, and the trading atmosphere in the venue was calm.

Future forecast: after the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic silicone DMC market will recover one after another, and the downstream goods preparation will be carried out step by step. The silicone DMC datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (February 7): 264.00 yuan / ton

On February 7, the market price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell, which was 32 yuan / ton lower than that on January 28 before the festival, a decrease of 10.81%, and a year-on-year increase of 42.70% compared with the same period last year. The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, and the support for hydrochloric acid is insufficient. The downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride market fell slightly, and the downstream purchase intention weakened.

Recently, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate and fall slightly, and the average quotation price is about 260 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price first rose and then fell in January. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 154366.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the nickel price rose slightly to 168766.67 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 9.33% and a year-on-year increase of 24.14%.

Previously, the import volume of nickel ore in the rainy season in the Philippines fell sharply, the market supply was tight, the nickel price was boosted, and the nickel price rose sharply. On the one hand, the production of stainless steel decreased from January to February; On the other hand, there is a strong demand for nickel sulfate in the field of electric vehicles. Ternary precursor enterprises begin to stock up before the Spring Festival, and the demand for nickel sulfate increases.

The nickel price rose sharply and then fell sharply from the high level:

The handling fee of the deposit raised in the previous period

The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that since the closing and settlement on Wednesday, January 26, 2022, the proportion of trading margin and the range of price limit will be adjusted. The proportion of trading margin of nickel, tin and stainless steel futures contracts will be adjusted to 14% and the range of price limit will be adjusted to 12%.

Qingshan high nickel matte shipping

The first batch of high nickel matte products in morowali Park, Castle Peak, Indonesia were collected at the port and officially loaded and shipped home. At present, there are 3 high nickel matte production lines in morowali Park, with a monthly nickel metal production capacity of about 3000 tons. It is preliminarily understood that in addition to the existing production lines, Indonesia Castle Peak Park plans to build several new production lines in the future. This is the first shipment of products other than samples since the announcement of Qingshan high nickel matte in March last year. Previously, Castle Peak signed an agreement with Huayou and Zhongwei on the annual supply of 75000 tons of high nickel matte, with the supply period from October 2021 to October 2022. It is understood that the total shipping volume is about 500 tons.

To sum up: affected by multiple factors such as Qingshan high nickel matte shipment, the increase of margin handling fee in the previous period, and the decline of European and American stock markets caused by the tense situation in Ukraine, the high nickel price fell. However, the large-scale production of high nickel matte still takes time, and the fundamentals have little impact for the time being. Nickel prices are expected to rise and fall, mainly based on capital game, and maintain a shock pattern in the short term.

According to the survey data of business society, the price of caustic soda increased first and then decreased in 2021, and the price fell from November. From the annual price comparison chart, we can see that the price of caustic soda in mid and late October has reached the highest level in ten years. Mainly affected by the “double control” policy.

As can be seen from the monthly K residence chart of caustic soda, the price fell in January, February, April and November of 2021, and the biggest increase in other rising months was 90% in September.

According to the survey data of business agency, the average market price of caustic soda at the beginning of the year was about 485 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was about 1000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 106.19%. The price of caustic soda was adjusted in the first and second quarters. The price rose from June to early November, then fell from November, and began to rebound from mid to late December.

As can be seen from the above figure, the overall price of caustic soda rose 106.19%, the downstream formic acid rose 62.26% and corrugated paper rose 12.97% in 2021. The rise of downstream prices drives the demand for caustic soda.

In the first quarter, the average market price was about 485 yuan / ton on January 1 and 490 yuan / ton on March 31, with a price increase of 1.03%. The overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, the cost side changes little, and the downstream purchase demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current caustic soda price. Although a few caustic soda manufacturers tentatively increase their quotation, it has a limited impact on the market.

In the second quarter, the price of caustic soda began to rise slightly. On April 1, the average market price of caustic soda was about 490 yuan / ton, and on June 30, the average market price was about 517.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 5.61%. Due to the inventory demand of alumina enterprises in Shandong, the demand for caustic soda is acceptable. However, at present, the overall inventory of caustic soda enterprises is sufficient, and other regions mainly wait and see. The subsequent consolidation and operation of caustic soda is still the main.

In the third quarter, the price of caustic soda in Shandong rose sharply. On July 1, the average market price of caustic soda was about 517.5 yuan / ton, and on September 30, the average market price of caustic soda was about 1235 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 138.65%. Recently, the maintenance inventory of caustic soda manufacturers has decreased, while the downstream alumina is still supported by the demand side. In addition, the export of caustic soda is well oriented. According to the data, the export of liquid soda in June was 136400 tons, with a month on month increase of 131.97% and a year-on-year increase of 456.73%. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate well, depending on the downstream market demand.

From late October to the end of November, the price of caustic soda went down. At the beginning of the month, due to the dual control policy, caustic soda manufacturers stopped and the supply decreased. Downstream: at present, alumina enterprises are more active in purchasing caustic soda in the near future, and the quotation of caustic soda manufacturers is increased. In late October, the prices of alumina purchasing enterprises and caustic soda were lowered, and the recent demand of downstream was general.

Since the middle of December, the price began to rebound again, mainly because the enterprise inventory was low and the downstream alumina procurement was better than that in the early stage. The increase of caustic soda is mainly due to the maintenance of manufacturers, the environmental protection inspection at the end of the year and the advent of the Winter Olympic Games. It is expected that the supply will decrease, the inventory of enterprises will decrease and the price of caustic soda will rise.

Caustic soda: business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda in January is relatively consolidated. Due to the impact of the environment and policies in 2021, caustic soda has a large increase. Throughout 2022, there may not be a historical high in 2021, but it will usher in the peak season according to the price in the third quarter of previous years, and the consolidation and operation in other months will focus on the downstream market demand.

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market returned to the upward route, and the price rose continuously. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5380.00 yuan / ton on January 17 and 5580.00 yuan / ton on January 24, with an increase of 3.72% during the week and 9.63% compared with January 1.

As of January 24, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions of China are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

North China 4950-5250 yuan / ton

East China 5100-5460 yuan / ton

Northeast China 5200-5500 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5450-5650 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market as a whole was dominated and the trend was relatively strong. During the week, Shandong civil gas market rose one after another, with a range of 150-300 yuan / ton. During the week, the international crude oil rose one after another, the news was good, the market mentality was good, and the market supply changed little. However, near the Spring Festival, there was a certain replenishment demand in the downstream, and the enthusiasm for entering the market was good. The overall trading atmosphere of the market was mild, the manufacturers shipped smoothly at the beginning of the week, and the inventory was mostly controllable. However, in the later part of the week, the enthusiasm for entering the market in the downstream weakened, and the market increase narrowed.

Recently, the LPG futures market rose first and then fell, bringing phased benefits to the spot market. On January 24, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2203 was 4739, the highest price was 4805, the lowest price was 4510, and the closing price was 4515. The former settlement price was 4730, and the settlement price was 4687, down 215, or 4.54%. The trading volume was 255392, the position was 86664, and the daily position was increased by 10008. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is mild, the inventories of manufacturers are mostly in a controllable state, and the mentality is relatively strong. The civil gas market in Shandong is still rising, but the international crude oil market is in a negative market mentality. In addition, the Spring Festival is coming, and most downstream replenishment has been completed. The trading atmosphere is expected to weaken. It is expected that the upward space of civil gas prices in Shandong is limited, mainly strong in the short term

According to the data of business agency, as of January 23, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5330.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.14% from 5270.00 yuan / ton on January 17.

On January 23, the fuel oil commodity index was 107.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 13.19% from the highest point of 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 134.27% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The rising price of domestic marine oil raw materials supports the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of January 23, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5250 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 5350 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 5300 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5400 yuan / ton.

The international crude oil price rose this week, and the oil price reached a nearly seven-year high, mainly due to the expectation of tight supply. Previously, the transportation was temporarily interrupted due to the fire of the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its oil growth forecast for 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, with investors believing that the Fed is not as hawkish as expected, and the oil price continues to rebound. The survey results released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the eighth consecutive week last week. It is generally expected that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventories. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further aggravates supply concerns, and oil prices are supported.

Singapore’s increased fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of January 19, Singapore’s fuel oil depot had 21.199 million barrels, a decrease of 1.114 million barrels over last week. The inventory of medium distillates was 8.525 million barrels, an increase of 1.355 million barrels over last week. The light fraction inventory was 13.534 million barrels, down 118000 barrels from last week. As of the weekend, the monthly difference back structure of 10ppm diesel paper goods in February / March reached around $1.43/barrel, slightly lower than last week.

Future forecast: the recent high international crude oil price and the rise in the price of raw materials in the ship fuel market support the ship fuel market. The market has strong upward sentiment, but the terminal procurement is light, the transaction just needs to be purchased, and it is mainly wait-and-see. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 5250-5400 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 5300-5450 yuan / ton. It is expected that the overall fuel oil 180CST market will remain stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline continued to rise this week and stabilized after a wide rise in prices. On January 14, the price in Shandong was 11000-11220 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11200-11300 yuan / ton; On January 21, the price in Shandong was 11600-11820 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12000 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.03% over last week and 49.37% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. On Friday (January 21), the price of pure benzene was 7600-7750 yuan / ton (average price 7680 yuan / ton), and the average price increased by 150 yuan / ton, or 1.99%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 70.67%. Crude oil rose continuously, with strong cost support, good negotiation enthusiasm in the pure benzene market, and the price rose. However, with the Spring Festival approaching, the downstream pre festival goods preparation basically ended, the buying decreased, the selling increased, and the high price of pure benzene fell. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 150 yuan / ton to 7700 yuan / ton, which also gave positive support to the market.

Nitric acid: the price of nitric acid was stable this week. On Friday (January 21), the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2183.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 8.26% compared with the same period last year.

Tight supply: last weekend, Dongying Huatai plant stopped briefly and restarted half load operation on January 20. Shanxi Tianji aniline plant maintained half load operation, and the aniline market supply was tight. High cost: the cost price is high, pure benzene increased by 1.99% in the week, and the price of nitric acid is stable. The demand side is stable: I heard that some downstream pre Festival parking, but the market is better. Aniline prices stabilized after rising this week, and East China followed Shandong.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, pure benzene is approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream goods preparation is basically over, and the pure benzene negotiation is becoming lighter. Crude oil is expected to continue high-level operation and support pure benzene well. Overall, it is expected that the horizontal consolidation of pure benzene will be dominated next week, and there may be a downward trend, but the decline is limited. In terms of nitric acid, near the end of the year, most enterprises are ready to stop for maintenance. The goods in the nitric acid market are not good, and the quotation of nitric acid is weak to maintain stability.

Next week is the last week before the festival, and the downstream demand may weaken. However, under the support of tight aniline supply and high cost price, aniline consolidation is expected to be the main trend. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

Domestic p-xylene price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the market price trend of p-xylene this week is temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 6900 yuan / ton, the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 46.81%.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, and the domestic p-xylene supply is relatively normal, but some overseas units are still under maintenance. Due to the general downstream demand, the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable. The closing price of international crude oil rose, and the trend of PX external price rose. As of the 14th, the closing prices were US $942-944 / T FOB Korea and US $962-964 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia was relatively stable. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene unit in Asia was more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia was normal, and the closing price of PX external price rose, The domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Crude oil prices rose this week. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $83.82/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $86.06/barrel. The oil price hit a new high in recent two months. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron has a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, superimposed on investors’ belief that the Fed is not as good as the expected hawks, and the oil price rebounded sharply. The current policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) is to gradually restore the oil production stopped during the epidemic by increasing by 400000 barrels / day month by month. However, in fact, OPEC + production is limited, the supply growth is relatively slow, the tight supply expectation and the rise of risk appetite are good for oil prices. The continuous decline of US crude oil inventories also triggered supply concerns. API crude oil inventories decreased by 1077000 barrels in the week of January 7. It is generally expected that the data of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventories. The rising trend of oil price has a certain positive impact on the domestic petrochemical market, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

The downstream PTA market price rose slightly this week. As of the 17th, the average PTA market price was 5200-5300 yuan / ton, and the PTA price rose by 0.92% this week. At present, the improvement of PTA market is mainly due to the recovery of crude oil market and the good supply side brought by centralized maintenance of units. However, the current terminal orders are still relatively light, the downstream polyester inventory is accumulated, and the raw material procurement is mainly to meet the rigid demand. At present, the operating rate of the industry is maintained at nearly 77%. The terminal orders in the terminal market are still relatively light. At present, the comprehensive start-up rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has fallen to 49%, and there are no new orders in the hands of some factories. In addition, the production inventory risk is high, and the start-up rate is expected to continue to decline. PTA plant in the raw material market is still planned to be overhauled, the positive support on the cost side remains, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current crude oil price is supported to a certain extent, and the cost side support is still in effect. In addition, some downstream PTA devices may be overhauled, resulting in poor demand in the terminal textile industry. However, affected by the strong support of crude oil, it is expected that the market price of p-xylene may rise slightly in the later period.