This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained weak and stable. As of March 8th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 14940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the previous week. Last week, the industrial silicon market was mainly weak and stable, mainly due to differences in price expectations between the supply and demand sides. Some silicon companies intend to lower prices to ship, while downstream companies have purchasing intentions, but the pressure on prices is even greater, intensifying the game between the two sides. This also led to an increase in market transactions, but to a lesser extent than expected. The performance of spot transactions was average, so downstream buyers held a bearish sentiment and purchased on demand. Therefore, last week’s weak and stable operation of industrial silicon was the main focus

On the 23rd, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14700~14900 yuan/ton, with an average of 14800 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 14700-14900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14800 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14600~14800 yuan/ton, with an average of 14700 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15300~15600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15450 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of March 7th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 323, with an overall furnace opening rate of 43.07%, an increase of 3 compared to last week. Among them, Xinjiang has increased 7 furnaces, Yunnan has decreased 4 furnaces, Sichuan has decreased 1 furnace, Gansu has increased 2 furnaces, and Guizhou has decreased 1 furnace. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces increased slightly, with some manufacturers in the northwest adding new furnaces. However, the number of new furnaces added at low prices was lower than expected, and some manufacturers in the southwest underwent early maintenance; Xinjiang’s production capacity continues to resume, and the number of furnaces started in Xinjiang is close to the high point before the environmental protection power restriction and shutdown, indicating a trend towards abundant supply. The cost in the southwestern production area is inverted, and the willingness to start construction is relatively low.

In terms of inventory:

As of March 8th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 359000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 103000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to last week’s month on month, while the social delivery warehouse was 256000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), which remained unchanged compared to last week’s month on month.

In terms of demand:

Last week, the price of polycrystalline silicon remained stable, and the ramp up of new production capacity drove an increase in industrial silicon consumption, but the release of procurement demand was limited. Currently, terminal procurement is generally cautious, and silicon wafer companies have accumulated inventory and are concerned about future demand, resulting in price competition. At present, some newly added polysilicon production capacity is still climbing, which continues to increase the consumption of industrial silicon. However, in recent times, the release of polysilicon’s demand for industrial silicon procurement has been slow, and the support for industrial silicon prices is relatively limited.

Last week, the price of organic silicon stabilized and the price of aluminum alloy slightly increased. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 16220 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC stabilized after a large increase in the early stage, and the downstream has a good acceptance of the current price. After concentrated trading in the market, it tended to stabilize. The current organic silicon industry has seen a slight increase in production, and there is also an increase in demand for industrial silicon. However, regardless of the company’s maintenance plans, the support of organic silicon for industrial silicon is still unstable in the near future. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. The production of aluminum alloy enterprises has further increased, and the improvement of downstream orders has driven the procurement of industrial silicon for aluminum alloys. However, overall, the demand increment is limited.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, silicon plants resumed production in March, and the overall operating rate continued to gradually increase. However, in some areas, the operating rate did not meet expectations, but the overall supply situation increased; On the demand side, with the resumption of industry production, downstream silicon factory replenishment procurement will also gradually increase. The demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is in a stable growth trend, and there may be a release of concentrated replenishment demand in the later stage, with a pre increase in demand release. Social inventory is stabilizing, and there is not much pressure on total inventory. At present, the supply and demand side may turn into a situation of double increase in supply and demand, with the fundamentals favorable for the upward trend of silicon prices. However, downstream procurement is more strong, and the futures market has weakened recently. There is a possibility of weakening cost support, and the space for silicon price increase is limited. It is expected that industrial silicon will slightly decline this week and operate weakly and steadily.