In 2023, there have been ups and downs with neopentyl glycol. What are the prospects for 2024

Introduction: Neopentanediol (NPG), a white crystalline solid, odorless, and hygroscopic. It is mainly used to produce plasticizers, surfactants, insulating materials, printing inks, polymerization inhibitors, synthetic aviation lubricant oil additives, etc. of unsaturated resins, oil-free alkyd resins, polyurethane foam plastics and elastomers; Meanwhile, neopentyl glycol is also an excellent solvent that can be used for the selective separation of aromatic hydrocarbons and cycloalkane hydrocarbons; Its amino baking paint has good light retention and does not turn yellow; It can also be used as a raw material for producing stabilizers and insecticides.


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The market situation of new pentanediol in 2023 has fluctuated widely


According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic market for new pentanediol in 2023 has experienced ups and downs, with a wide range of fluctuations. The average price at the beginning of the year was 9133.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 9800 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 7.30%. From the price trend chart of neopentyl glycol, it can be seen that the highest price of neopentyl glycol in 2023 was 11200 yuan/ton in early March, and the lowest price was 9133.33 yuan/ton in early January, with a maximum annual amplitude of 22.63%.


From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of new pentanediol increased more than decreased, and the market trend showed a first rise, then fall, then rise and then fall. The highest increase was 16.14%, and the largest decrease was 8.95% in June. In the first quarter of 2023, the downstream operating rate increased after the holiday, and demand was good. The price increased from 9133.33 yuan/ton on January 1st to 10666.67 yuan/ton on March 31st, an increase of 16.79%. In the second quarter, the upstream isobutyraldehyde price plummeted significantly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market was average, and demand weakened. The market had a strong bearish atmosphere, and the price of neopentyl glycol dropped significantly. The price dropped from 10666.67 yuan/ton on April 1st to 9500 yuan/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 10.94%. In the third quarter, the market circulation of goods decreased, and manufacturers had a strong intention to raise prices. The price increased from 9500 yuan/ton on July 1st to 10450 yuan/ton on September 30th, an increase of 10.00%. In the fourth quarter, the price of isobutyraldehyde plummeted, cost support weakened, and the price of neopentyl glycol fluctuated and fell. The price dropped from 10450 yuan/ton on October 1st to 9800 yuan/ton on December 31st, a decrease of 6.22%.


How will the market situation of new pentanediol develop in 2024?


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From the perspective of production capacity: Data shows that in the first half of 2023, the domestic new pentanediol industry added 100000 tons of production capacity. Currently, the total domestic production capacity has reached 680000 tons, with a growth rate of 17.2%. Despite the continuous increase in downstream demand, the satellite chemistry and BASF Zhanjiang integrated base still have plans for production and capacity expansion. It is expected that the production capacity of new pentanediol will exceed 700000 tons by 2024.


From the perspective of market demand, the development of the polyester industry has slowed down in the past two years, but the terminal coating industry is slowly recovering. The tone of the national real estate stabilization policy remains unchanged, which is beneficial for the paint industry. At the same time, under environmental protection policies, the country’s control of VOC emissions is becoming increasingly strict, and the powder paint industry has entered a period of rapid growth. There is still room for growth in the development of the new pentanediol industry.

Looking at the future: With increasing demand, the price center of new pentanediol may shift upwards in 2024

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