Price trend

In mid March, the domestic EVA market was stagnant after rising, and spot prices were mixed. According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, as of March 20, the average ex-factory price of EVA in China was 16766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.71% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

Recently, the market for ethylene at the raw material end has shown a steady but weak performance. In the early stage, the shutdown and maintenance benefits of South Korean devices have been exhausted. In addition, the supply of goods from Europe and the United States is about to arrive in Hong Kong, and the market supply of goods is gradually increasing. The cost side price of petroleum naphtha also declined as crude oil fell, and overall, ethylene fundamentals were weak. The domestic downstream factories of vinyl acetate are generally operating, and on-site consumption tends to be just in demand. The supply side is relatively abundant, causing a drag on the spot market. The superimposed cost side has weakened, and the current spot market for vinyl acetate is temporarily not positive, with prices finishing in a weak position. The market for raw materials has weakened, giving poor support to the EVA market.

On the supply side:

In mid March, the load of domestic EVA increased rapidly due to the resumption of work by multiple production enterprises. The current industry operating rate is 91.4%, up about 12.1% from the previous ten days. At the same time, domestic production increased simultaneously, with a total output of 41600 tons last week, an increase of 5400 tons compared to the previous week. The impact of rising factory inventory pressure is not obvious, and factory factory prices are running at a competitive price. However, social inventory has started to rise, and traders have operated to sell profits and take orders. Within the range, mainstream brand spot prices accounted for the majority of the horizontal trend, and overall, supplier support for spot prices has weakened.

Demand:

Recently, the domestic market atmosphere of EVA has been mixed, and there are also differences in downstream market prices in different directions. The smooth delivery of photovoltaic materials and optimistic consumption are the main support for the current downstream of EVA. On the other hand, the demand for foaming materials is relatively weak. Terminal enterprises have lagged behind in follow-up, consumption of footwear materials and other aspects has not improved compared to the previous period, and there is little intra-field trading. Enterprises tend to maintain production in their stocking operations, with a heavy market wait-and-see atmosphere and resistance to high-priced sources of goods. Demand side support is strong and weak, with general support for EVA price quotations.

Aftermarket Forecast

Overall, the EVA market performance in mid March was generally stagnant, with prices stabilizing slightly. The raw material market turned down, reducing the support for EVA spot products. Downstream demand differentiation is evident, with photovoltaic materials and foam materials becoming stronger and weaker, and overall, there is a stalemate in support of EVA demand side. EVA polymerization plant inventory pressure is acceptable, and traders’ inventory position is on the high side. The stock removal operation on the market superimposes the divergence of mentality among the operators. Currently, the market offers are chaotic, and arbitrage and order taking operations are increasing. The market is intertwined between long and short periods, and it is expected that the current domestic EVA market will focus on digesting inventory, and prices may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.