1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price mainly fluctuated in a narrow range this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 68670 yuan / ton, up 0.08% from 68616.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 18.49% from the beginning of the year, and up 35.66% from the same period last year.

Since late June, copper prices have fluctuated between 67000-70000 yuan / ton. On July 5, the first batch of 20000 tons of copper was put on the market at the price of 67700 yuan / ton by the State Reserve Bureau. To some extent, the government’s dumping of reserves affected the rise of copper prices, but the overall impact was small.

With the popularization of vaccines, overseas copper supply has recovered from the epidemic, and the release of newly expanded copper production capacity in 2021 will be gradually reflected in the second half of the year. However, due to the political risks of Chile and Peru, the authorities’ attitude towards mining will affect the decision-making of capital expenditure of mining enterprises.

The output of refined copper in May was 866000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%; From January to may, the cumulative output was 4.244 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 14.1%. In July, there was less maintenance in the refinery, the processing fee rebounded, the profit was fair, and the output of refined copper was expected to increase.

There was no significant increase in demand, and the copper output in May was 1.838 million tons, down 10.3% year on year; From January to may, the cumulative output was 8.206 million tons, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate dropped to 3.5%.

To sum up, the macro situation in July was relatively stable, the supply of copper was gradually relaxed, the demand was relatively light, and the continuous rise of copper price showed insufficient momentum. Copper prices are expected to remain range bound in the short term.

Corn price arrangement, the carrier is mostly in a loss state, the main production of fuel, food inventory is not high, price sorting operation. According to the sample data monitored by the business society, as of July 6, the price of domestic ethanol market was 6962 yuan / ton, with the price rising 2.20% on a month basis, and the price increased by 15.32% year on year.

Domestic ethanol market is weak finishing. The price of small factories in Northeast China is weak under the positive attitude of delivery, the price of East China Shandong is weak, the price is weak under the market weak mentality, and the price in Henan is stable.

Corn prices continued to pick up from the raw materials. With the price of corn rising, the arrival of deep processing in the production area has not increased significantly, trade inventory pressure is still in place, demand support is weak, and short-term prices continue to fluctuate. With the further decline of domestic corn inventory, the consumption of corn at the demand end continues to increase. Downstream, the market range of ethyl acetate fluctuated, and it was raised from 8800-8950 yuan / ton of cash. The market price has been low, but the mainstream manufacturers are shipping smoothly at low prices, and the market is waiting for a while.

The latest price trends of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, category, price

Guangxi Honey alcohol 7300-7350 yuan / ton

Guangxi 95% alcohol 6950-7200 yuan / ton

Guangxi Anhydrous ethanol 7700-7900 yuan / ton

Guangdong Cassava alcohol About 7150 yuan / ton

Guangdong 95% ethanol 6950-7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong Ethanol of anhydrous cassava 7750-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Universal 6700-6750 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn superior 6900-7500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn is anhydrous 7500 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu Universal 7000-7050 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu Universal 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Cassava universal 6900-6950 yuan / ton

Anhui anhydrous 7650-7700 yuan / ton

Henan region Superior 6830-6850 yuan / ton tax included

Henan region Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton tax included

Hebei Province Universal 6900-6950 yuan / ton

Hebei Province Coal is anhydrous 7600-7700 yuan / ton

Sichuan Corn alcohol Tax included about 7550-7650 yuan / ton

Yunnan Molasses alcohol 6950-7100 yuan / ton

Yunnan Cassava alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Province Corn alcohol universal 6350 yuan / ton tax included

Jilin area General alcohol 6450 yuan / ton tax included

The price of corn is weak, and the price of cassava is weak under the condition of the small domestic purchase quantity. The enterprise may be weak because of the weak demand downstream. The ethanol analysts of business agency expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market is mainly in weak consolidation.

Recent trend of sulfuric acid price

As can be seen from the above figure, the distribution price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week, with the quoted price of 603.33 yuan / ton, up 101.11% compared with the same period last year. Overall, this week’s sulfuric acid market was temporarily stable, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 93.90 on July 2.

Downstream market boosted, purchasing intention strengthened

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the inventory of manufacturers is general, and the downstream demand is better. At the end of the week, Heze Jiangyuan quoted 630 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 530 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 650 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has risen steadily in recent years, with the quotation rising from 1633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1643.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.61%, 151.53% year-on-year compared with the same period last year, and the cost support is good. However, the bromine market in the lower reaches was consolidated at a high level, and the quoted price dropped from 46062.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 45875.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.41%, up 71.32% year on year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products have a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this week.

After a small shock up

In the first ten days of July, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong may rise slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been consolidated at a high level recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the price of bromine in the lower reaches has also begun to rise. The purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches has been strengthened, and the product trend has risen under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or small shock rise.

Commodity index: the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on June 29 was 95.57, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 12.33% compared with 109.01 points (August 28, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 13.34% compared with 84.32 points, the lowest point on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

It is found that the market of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China’s domestic market has shown a trend of short-term rise, then decline and continued to weaken since the commencement of construction in 2021. On February 18, the domestic mainstream price was 1791.67 yuan / ton, while on March 30, the mainstream price was 1718.57 yuan / ton, down by about 4.18%; In April, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in Henan Province of China fluctuated slightly, with an amplitude of less than 1%, with little change. By April 29, the mainstream quotation was 1717.14 yuan / ton, so far, the overall decline was 4.16%. In May, the market of China’s (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) solid polyaluminum chloride showed a fluctuating upward trend in the early stage, and then decreased at the end of the month: the domestic mainstream price was 1720 yuan / ton on the 1st, 1756.67 yuan / ton on the 30th, and 1723.33 yuan / ton on the 31st. Among them, the main influencing factor is the change of raw material price. In June, the price of China’s (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) solid polyaluminum chloride fluctuated slightly. At the end of the month, the raw material hydrochloric acid was under control, and the polyaluminum chloride manufacturers also stopped production for about a week. The market price did not change much, with 1710 yuan / ton on the 1st and 1723.33 yuan / ton on the 29th, with an adjustment rate of only 0.78%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: according to the data of business society, the overall market of hydrochloric acid manufacturers showed a fluctuating downward trend in February, but in the nearly half month after the Spring Festival, hydrochloric acid experienced a rise of about 4%, and then recovered by about 10%. In March, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China fluctuated and rose. On March 1, the mainstream market quotation was about 172 yuan / ton, and on March 30, it was about 197.5 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of nearly 15%. The upstream liquid chlorine market rose by 17% this month, with strong cost support. The maintenance of downstream enterprises of hydrochloric acid increased, and the demand decreased. The hydrochloric acid supply enterprises had more inventory, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general, and the market supply exceeded the demand. The support of downstream silica is relatively low, and the monthly price fluctuation is no more than 1%. The support of ammonium chloride is strong, and the monthly rise is 14%. The downstream demand of “Jinshan” hydrochloric acid is gradually increasing, resulting in the fluctuation of hydrochloric acid up about 15% this month. In April, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China was volatile and downward: on April 1, the mainstream market quotation was about 243.33 yuan / ton, and on April 29, it was about 226.67 yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of about 6.85%. In May, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China showed a slight upward trend. On the 1st, the mainstream market quotation was 226.67 yuan / ton. On the 17th, the price of hydrochloric acid mixture in Shandong increased by 6.66 yuan / ton, or 2.94%. After that, the price temporarily stabilized around 223.33 yuan / ton. In June, the trend of hydrochloric acid in North China was volatile and stable after upward adjustment, with the mainstream quotation of 223.33 yuan / ton on the 1st and 230 yuan / ton on the 29th, up 2.99%. Calcium powder: according to the manufacturers in the main production area, in the first half of the year, the price of calcium powder also increased significantly after the Spring Festival, followed by the price increase in May, and the current price is relatively stable.

Secondly, LNG is used in the production process. In February, due to many negative factors such as weak demand, sufficient supply, superimposed feed gas, and declining cost support, the shipment of liquid plants was under pressure, and the domestic LNG market fell by more than 30%. In March, the price of gas source rose, which boosted the market sentiment, added up with the downstream replenishment before the festival, and the low operation of some manufacturers’ devices in some areas, which jointly boosted the rise of liquid price, with a range of up to 30% in that month. In April, the heating period in northern China ended, and the market officially entered the off-season. The supporting force of demand side gradually declined, and the favorable factors such as early maintenance were exhausted. Due to the weak demand, the LNG market was down, with a monthly decline of about 16%. After the May holiday, the restrictions on the transportation of high-speed dangerous chemicals were lifted, the demand for vehicles increased after the holiday, the maintenance of superimposed liquid plants increased, the supply was tightened, the inventory of enterprises was low, and the price of imported gas rose. Driven by this, the domestic liquid price rose in a straight line. The overall trend was up down up, with a monthly increase of 46%. It performed well in the off-season of consumption. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the price of downstream replenishment and raw gas rose, and the liquid market ushered in a wave of rising trend. This month’s market showed four stages of fall rise fall rise rise. The rise and fall of the whole month were almost offset from 3626 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 3666 yuan / ton at the end of the month. With the positive attitude of manufacturers in supporting prices at the end of June, and under the psychology of buying up but not buying down, the market trading atmosphere has improved. It is expected that with the reduction of bidding in July to boost the market sentiment, the industry’s wait-and-see attitude will remain unchanged.

Downstream demand: in the first half of this year, the downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride has not improved greatly. According to the enterprises, the overall demand from 2021 to now is average, coupled with environmental protection inspection, the enterprises are under great pressure, and the downstream demand is generally not as good as that in 2020. At the end of June, after receiving the production limit notice from yingqiyi environmental protection company, the company will stop production until the beginning of next month, which is expected to take about a week. In the current demand, if the inventory is not affected, the price will not have great support.

Future forecast: according to the situation reflected by the manufacturers, the downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride is general in 2021. Although it has stopped production from time to time, the inventory is sufficient, and the change of raw material cost is relatively weak. The LNG for production will be affected by the crude oil price, supported by the supply side and cost side, and the favorable bidding in July, which may boost the market sentiment, But the impact on the current market of water treatment products is not obvious. To sum up, in the first half of the year, the market of polyaluminum chloride basically fluctuated in a small range. In the third quarter, if the transportation control time of hydrochloric acid is long and the raw material cost price rises, then we can’t rule out the rising market. At present, it seems that the market will be stable, even if there are fluctuations, it will be adjusted in a small range.

Trade name: dichloromethane

Latest price (June 28): 3770 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 3770 yuan / ton on the 28th, down 4.39% compared with the previous day. Over the weekend, the factory prices of some dichloromethane manufacturers in Shandong Province were lowered. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of June 28, the dichloromethane bulk water of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. had been delivered in cash at 3890 yuan / ton; Shandong Jinling dichloromethane bulk water ex works at 3670 yuan / ton. Recently, the overall start-up of domestic methane chloride plant has been improved, and the supply has increased slightly, which has an impact on the formation of partial empty dichloromethane. In addition, the price of liquid chlorine dropped sharply. As of the 28th, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was 850 yuan / ton, and the cost was mainly empty.

Future forecast: on the one hand, the price of raw material liquid chlorine has dropped sharply; on the other hand, the domestic start-up of methane chloride has generally increased, and the impact of cost and supply side is mainly short. It is expected that dichloromethane will be weak in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the block data list of business news agency, on June 25, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid was 6000 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week, down 2.96% compared with the beginning of the month, and up 23.29% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the phosphoric acid market was relatively calm, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell, phosphoric acid enterprises were on the wait-and-see situation, most of them maintained the early quotation, and those with higher early quotation gradually decreased, but the overall market price was still significantly higher than that of the same period last year. With the reduction of cost pressure, the starting of phosphoric acid enterprises continued to return to normal, and the price was expected to continue to decrease. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of June 25, the quotation in Sichuan is 5500-5900 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is 6600-6700 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 6500 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin is 6400 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is 6000-6200 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 6000-6300 yuan / ton. The price of phosphoric acid in various places has been gradually reduced.

In terms of phosphate rock and raw materials, the price of Yungui phosphate rock increased this week. The average price of phosphate ore was 510 yuan / ton last Thursday and 526.67 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price was increased by 3.27% during the week. The domestic phosphorus ore market is in short supply, and the enterprise owners send early orders. The price of 28% low-grade phosphate rock in Guangxi is around 380-420 yuan / ton, the market atmosphere has improved, and the orders are mainly in the early stage of delivery.

Yellow phosphorus, the price of yellow phosphorus fell first and then stabilized this week. At present, yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan have resumed production one after another, but the recovery of furnaces is very limited, and there are no new enterprises starting this week. The downstream construction has been improved, the stock has increased, and the overall market supply has become tight. Yellow phosphorus prices began to stabilize. Up to now, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 19200-22000 yuan / ton; The price quoted in Sichuan is about 19800-20000 yuan / ton; The price quoted in Guizhou is about 19000-19500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, the current cost pressure has been reduced compared with the previous period, and the quotation of phosphoric acid enterprises has been gradually reduced, but the wait-and-see mood has not been reduced. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will follow the decline of raw material prices and steadily decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. On June 21, the price was 1023.50 US dollars / ton, and on June 22, the average price of ethylene was 1026.25 US dollars / ton, up 0.27%. The current price has dropped 4.58% month on month, and the current price has increased 43.43% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market is on the rise. The price of ethylene in Asia remained stable. As of the 21st, CFR closed at US $857-865 / T in Northeast Asia and US $832-840 / T in Southeast Asia. The price of ethylene market in Europe rose. As of the 21st, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1271-1282 / T and CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1127-1136 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. remained stable. As of the 21st, the price was $628-639 per ton. The external market of ethylene has declined recently. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole external market of ethylene in the near future is acceptable, the trading atmosphere is relatively active, the transaction situation is good, and the focus of ethylene market has gradually moved up.

International: on June 21, international oil prices rose sharply, and the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $73.12/barrel, up US $1.48 or 2.07%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract at 74.90 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 1.39 U.S. dollars or 1.90%. People are full of confidence in the sustained economic recovery and strong demand growth. In addition, Iran’s presidential election is expected to continue to delay the resumption of us Iran nuclear talks.

Recently, crude oil continued to be strong, and the price of pure benzene fell. The maintenance unit of pure benzene has been restarted, and the supply has rebounded, but the low inventory level will continue, and the gap between supply and demand will remain. In the short term, the price of pure benzene and pure benzene is relatively strong. At present, the futures and spot price of styrene has fallen to near the cash flow, and the cost side has become the main support point. On the supply side, the unexpected maintenance of Anhui Jiaxi 350000 T / A, CNOOC shell phase II 700000 T / A and Hebei shengteng 80000 T / a units disturbed the supply side. However, since most of the maintenance units have been restarted and new units have been put into operation, the supply increment is expected to remain unchanged in June. With the increase of domestic trade and imports to East China, the terminal will continue to accumulate storage. Styrene is expected to weaken in the short term. We still need to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and pure benzene, plant dynamics and downstream demand changes.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, global demand growth, economic recovery, crude oil market may rise, so data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly rise next.

On June 22, the overall market price of styrene was explored in a small margin. Crude oil rose, ethylene price was slightly higher, the price of pure benzene remained stable, styrene cost support was strong, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene fell to within 900, which led to the aggravation of loss in non integrated factories. In the short term, cost has become the last straw of styrene price support, which will limit the falling space of styrene. From the supply side, Shandong Yuhuang 250000 tons / year plant is planned to stop and repair 25 days before June 27; Anhui Jiaxi 350000 tons / year is planned to restart at the end of June, and the Hebei shengteng 80000 T / A and Changzhou Donghao 200000 t / a plan to restart this week. In addition, the port is delivered intensively this week. It is expected that the inventory will rise significantly next week and the overall supply will increase. However, in the context of negative cash flow, the maintenance of new devices is not excluded, but the overall supply is still low.

Downstream, PS, EPS prices temporarily stable, ABS down. EPS terminal demand is weak, opening rate is down, and styrene procurement is cautious. PS operating rate rose slightly, but the spot purchase price of styrene only appeared at low price. ABS power on the high level fell, nearly 99%, Ningbo Taihua 450000 tons / year on June 21, down the negative maintenance, the expected start rate continues to decline, terminal demand in the off-season weakening, ABS prices continue to decline. In summary, the short-term styrene cost support is strong, downstream demand is weak, and the short-term styrene market is expected to remain in a weak shock stage.

Today, styrene prices in Shandong Province have been raised to 8750-8850 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on June 14, the average ex factory price of 55 powdered monoammonium was 2616 yuan / ton, and on June 18, the average ex factory price of 2616 yuan / ton, which was stable this week.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of 64% granular diammonium on June 14 was 3266 yuan / ton, and that on June 18 was 3316 yuan / ton, up 1.53% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of map was stable this week. At present, the supply of monoammonium phosphate is relatively small, and most enterprises have no quotation for the time being. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 3000-3100 yuan / ton, and that of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3100 yuan / ton. On Monday, the operating rate of ammonium enterprises was about 69%, which was stable compared with last week. Some enterprises are still in the process of shutdown and maintenance.

The price of DAP rose this week. The export market atmosphere is good, the waiting volume is large, and the supply of goods is tight. Most enterprises have no quotation for the time being, and some enterprises stop for maintenance. On Tuesday, the operating rate of ammonium enterprises was about 50%, lower than that of last week.

As of June 18, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas of China was around 510 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on June 14. This week, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole continued to run high and stable.

3、 Future forecast

Business community ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the current amount of ammonium phosphate to be more, most enterprises do not take orders. DAP export market demand is more, supply is not much, market trend is good. It is expected that the price of map will run smoothly in the short term and the price of DAP will continue to rise.

According to the business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9133 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 9066 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price drop of 0.73%.

At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9000-12500 yuan / ton; The market atmosphere of activated carbon is cold and the delivery is normal, and the transaction price is mainly discussed (the specifications and properties of activated carbon are complicated, and the price can not be generalized, please consult the manufacturer for details).

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: in the short term, the price of activated carbon will continue to be weak, the atmosphere of wait-and-see in the downstream will be obvious, and the overall market transaction will be weak.