According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market continues to rise. It is obvious from the figure that the rare earth price index has reached a new high. Recently, the domestic praseodymium neodymium rare earth market has soared, and the price of heavy rare earth market has risen accordingly. On November 3, the rare earth index was 694 points, an increase of 8 points compared with yesterday and a decrease of 30.60% compared with the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), It is 156.09% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).
Recently, the price increase in the domestic light rare earth market was eye-catching. Recently, the price of mainstream praseodymium neodymium commodities in the rare earth market continued to rise. Although there was a correction at the beginning of the month, the range was small, and the price continued to rise at the weekend. In terms of products:
It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, metal praseodymium neodymium and metal praseodymium all rose. The prices of all products ran out of a nine-year high on October 28, and reached a new high after November. As of November 4, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare soil was 765000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium oxide is 775000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 750000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 907500 yuan / ton; The price of metal praseodymium is 990000 yuan / ton; The price of neodymium is 955000 yuan / ton. The transaction in the domestic rare earth market has improved, the on-site supply is tight, and the light rare earth market has risen sharply.
The trend of products in the domestic rare earth market is rising, the structural change of supply and demand is small, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in domestic household appliances continues to increase, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand side has increased. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, the rapid development of new energy industry has driven the development of many industries, and the upstream material rare earth permanent magnet has also caught the “express” of new energy. The main rare earth raw materials of high-performance Nd-Fe-B are light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal, the demand for rare earth is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxides has risen sharply. When there is no lock order, the rare earth metal factory mainly focuses on wait-and-see and purchases cautiously. At the same time, the national environmental protection inspector is still continuing. The traditional peak demand season for rare earth is coming. Superimposed on the launch expectations of relevant policies of the rare earth industry, the supply and demand is expected to resonate with the policies, and the rare earth market continues to rise. In addition, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has been at a low level, the shippers have low willingness to ship, strong reluctance to sell and wait-and-see mood, and the on-site prices continue to rise. Finally, the shortage of rare earth supply continues. The supply of rare earth waste is also tight and the price is strong, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is upside down. In addition, the prices of auxiliary materials are also rising, and the costs of separation enterprises have increased. In addition, some separation enterprises in Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan and other places have reduced production, resulting in a continuous shortage of praseodymium and neodymium oxide spot supply. With the arrival of the procurement cycle of magnetic material enterprises, the price of praseodymium and neodymium has been rising recently. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in the first three quarters of 2021, the number of pure electric vehicles has increased by 1101000 year-on-year, and the number of plug-in hybrid vehicles has increased by 211000 year-on-year. The substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market is continuing. In recent years, the demand for new energy is high, and the price of domestic light rare earth market continues to rise. Driven by the demand for Nd-Fe-B, the domestic heavy rare earth market price rose accordingly, but it did not reach a new high in the year.
As can be seen from the trend chart, the domestic price of dysprosium series rose. As of the 4th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.96 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.935 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium was 3.73 million yuan / ton. The price of domestic Terbium series continued to rise, the price of domestic terbium oxide was 11.25 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 12.6 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths rose, but the price was lower than that in April, when the market price of heavy rare earths was at a ten-year high. The turnover of the domestic rare earth market improved and the leading magnetic material factory actively purchased, which led to the rise of the domestic heavy rare earth market price. In the early stage, affected by the rainy season and epidemic situation, the rare earth supply in Myanmar was disturbed. In the later stage, the war broke out in Myanmar, and the supply disturbance was further aggravated. The global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, the domestic supply is tight, and the production reduction risk of separation enterprises using Myanmar mines in the south is increased. Affected by this, the domestic heavy rare earth supply is tight, coupled with the increase of domestic demand, the contradiction between supply and demand is intensified, and the price trend of heavy rare earth market is rising.
In addition, with the support of national policies, Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, pointed out in early July that the regulations on the administration of rare earth will be introduced as soon as possible. We expect that the regulations will be introduced with a high probability within this year, and the national level legislation will regulate the high-quality development of the rare earth industry. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products has increased, and the price of domestic rare earth market has risen sharply.
With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight and the inventory continues to decline. Recently, the on-site transaction market is OK and the goods are actively prepared. With the advent of the traditional peak demand season of rare earth, the merchants holding the goods are reluctant to sell. Chen Ling, a business analyst, predicts that the price trend of rare earth market will mainly rise in the later stage.
