last week (12.20-24) the market of liquid ammonia has stopped rising and stabilized. Partially affected by the rising ammonia volume, the price has mainly declined, while the price of Shandong and Hebei has stabilized. The southwest, northwest and other places have a decline of about 100 yuan. However, the market is still at the level of weak supply and demand. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 24, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 0. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4100-4 300 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of liquid ammonia remained stable, the ammonia volume in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei and two lakes changed little, and the local supply increased. The decline of urea price led to the increase of liquid ammonia shipment, the ammonia volume of southwest gas head enterprises and Northwest China increased, and the price decreased slightly.

At present, the price of liquid ammonia is still suppressed by the cost side. Affected by regulation, coal prices continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business society, thermal coal fell sharply last week, with a range of 10.77%.

In terms of methanol, the methanol market fell significantly last week. The shipments of mainland enterprises were general, the inventory increased, traders waited and saw, the downstream demand entered the off-season, the coal price fell, and the methanol cost weakened. The average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 2632 yuan / ton to 2450 yuan / ton, and the weekly price fell by 6.76%. The sharp decline of methanol price brought bad news to the cost of liquid ammonia.

On the demand side, in terms of urea and compound fertilizer, the price of urea stops rising and turns to falling. Last week, the market atmosphere was cold, and the urea price decreased slightly, down 1.02%, mainly due to the weakening of cost support, the downstream demand entered the bottleneck period, and the urea supply increased. Although the agricultural demand is advancing, the industrial demand is mainly on the sidelines. Urea and compound fertilizer markets are weak.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the price difference has basically remained reasonable since December.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the liquid ammonia industry chain is still weak, and the prices of many downstream products have decreased significantly, especially the upstream liquefied natural gas and downstream melamine.

Future forecast: the business community believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is basically balanced, the market is supported by local benefits, the price will show regional differentiation, and the price in the main production area is expected to be stable in the later stage.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that after a sharp decline in November, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price stopped falling and rebounded this month. The quotation first fell from 8333.33 yuan / ton on December 1 to 7000.00 yuan / ton on December 10, down 1333.33 yuan / ton, down 16.00%, and then rose to 9100.00 yuan / ton on December 24, up 2100 yuan / ton, up 30.00%. Overall, the isobutyraldehyde market stopped falling and rebounded this month.

Domestic isobutyraldehyde market in December

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the prices of mainstream domestic isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell first and then rose this month, the manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is poor. The quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde at the end of the month was 8800 yuan / ton, an increase of 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 9300 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Liaocheng yuanze isobutyraldehyde offered 9200 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market suffered twists and turns this month. On the whole, it fell slightly. There was an upward trend at the end of the month. The quotation fell from 7545.50 yuan / ton on December 1 to 7427.33 yuan / ton on December 24, down 1.57%, down 6.58% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The cost support was insufficient, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde. The market price of downstream neopentyl glycol decreased slightly, and the quotation decreased from about 16000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 13500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 2500 yuan / ton, with an upward trend at the end of the month. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde weakened. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde this month.

Market outlook rose slightly

The domestic isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly in the middle and first ten days of January. Recently, the price of upstream propylene has decreased slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, the downstream neopentyl glycol market has increased slightly, the downstream enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde procurement has been strengthened, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly.

This week, the domestic propane market was obviously bearish, and the focus continued to move down. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 5455.75 yuan / ton on December 12 and 5345.75 yuan / ton on December 20. The decline rate during the week was 2.02%, down 7.41% compared with December 1.

As of December 20, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region December 20th

East China 5400-5480 yuan / ton

North China 5350-5500 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5250-5420 yuan / ton

Northeast China 5300-5500 yuan / ton

This week, Shandong propane market is still dominated by the following behaviors as a whole. The trend of the South and North markets is weak, and the reduction range of Shandong propane market is 50-250 yuan / ton within the week. There are many negative factors in the market. The supply of Shandong market is relatively sufficient, but the overall demand is limited. The downstream mentality is cautious and makes up more on demand. The market trading atmosphere is general. In addition, the volatility of international crude oil trend has brought Limited benefits to the market, the refinery mentality is general, and the price is reduced.

Saudi Aramco announced in December 2021 that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was 790 USD / T, down 80 USD / T from the previous month; Butane was 770 USD / T, down 60 USD / T from the previous month.

At present, the international crude oil is mainly downward, and the news is bad. In terms of demand, the supply of propane Market in Shandong is relatively sufficient, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, the mentality is cautious, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is weak. It is expected that the situation of supply exceeding demand in the propane market is difficult to change in the short term, or oscillates in a narrow range, dominated by weakness.

According to the monitoring data of business society, since December, the hydrogen peroxide market has opened a downward channel, and the price has continued to fall. On December 21, the price of hydrogen peroxide fell to 833 yuan / ton, down 13.19% from the beginning of December.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide of business society from September 27, 2021 to December 19, 2021, it can be seen that since September, the hydrogen peroxide market has warmed up and opened the road of rise, with an increase of 3.94% in the current month. After 11, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a sharp rise, rising continuously until October 19. Long and short game, the hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply and fell sharply after that. Throughout October, hydrogen peroxide rose 39.01%. At the beginning of November, hydrogen peroxide still maintained a downward trend, and the price fell for three consecutive weeks. In the whole November, hydrogen peroxide fell 13.55%. In December, hydrogen peroxide has been falling, falling endlessly. As of December 21, the overall decline was 13.19%.

Terminal demand is sluggish, and hydrogen peroxide continues to decline

Since December, the terminal demand was poor, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to decline weakly, with an overall decline of more than 13% on the 21st. The price of terminal corrugated paper shows a slight downward trend. With the cancellation of the original price increase plan by Nine Dragons Paper, the price of corrugated paper and box board in some of its bases has been reduced by 100-200 / ton recently, so the paper market has declined one after another. In addition, there are few orders from downstream paper mills, the enthusiasm for corrugated paper procurement is not high, and the inventory of paper enterprises in the market is sufficient, and the overall market supply exceeds demand. The demand for hydrogen peroxide purchased by the paper industry is low, the supply of hydrogen peroxide is loose, the manufacturers have insufficient confidence in supporting the price, the price continues to decline, and the average market price falls to the first line of 830 yuan / ton.

On December 21, the price of hydrogen peroxide in some regions was as follows:

The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Luxi Chemical is 720 yuan / ton, which is 160 yuan / ton lower than that in early December; Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 830 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton from the beginning of December; The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Anhui Quansheng chemical is 950 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that in early December.

Business agency hydrogen peroxide analyst Li Bing believes that: the terminal demand is flat, it is difficult to make a significant change in the short term, and the future rise of hydrogen peroxide is still under pressure.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 21, the comprehensive price of PC market was 21650.00 yuan / ton, and the PC price was mainly weak. Compared with the same period last week, the price decreased by 0.46% and 13.23% compared with the same period last month. The overall market negotiation atmosphere was cold, the downstream just needed to purchase, the demand was flat, the PC market was weak in the short term, and the range of price fluctuation was limited.

The overall domestic PC market is dominated by weak operation, narrow price range, strong wait-and-see atmosphere, lack of demand follow-up, general positive support, tight domestic supply side, mainstream price is about 21650 yuan / ton, factory quotation decreases slightly, lack of downstream demand, smooth logistics, normal installation operation rate and slow manufacturer shipment.

Upstream bisphenol A is mainly operated in a narrow range. The mainstream negotiation in East China market is around 16100 yuan / ton. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream. Manufacturers operate cautiously, and the demand side is not followed up enough. The overall market shipment is slow, stable and weak in the short term.

Bisphenol a commodity index: on December 20, the bisphenol a commodity index was 153.74, unchanged from yesterday, down 45.71% from the highest point of 283.19 in the cycle (2021-04-16), and up 113.26% from the lowest point of 72.09 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2020 to now)

Business community PC analysts believe that: in the short term, the PC market is weak and volatile, and the operation is weak in a narrow range. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of goods, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community).

This week, the domestic EVA market did not stop falling and continued the downward trend. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 20166.67 yuan / ton on December 12 and 18433.33 yuan / ton on December 20. The decline rate during the week was 8.60%, 10.08% lower than that on December 1.

As of December 20, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 19500 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 18000 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 17800 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic EVA market continued to be weak and downward, and the market lacked positive boost. During the week, the ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises was significantly reduced and the cost support was weak. This week, the international crude oil price fluctuated and fell, which brought Limited benefits to the market. The downstream just needed to enter the market, with a cautious attitude. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market was weak, the mentality of merchants was poor, the offer was chaotic, and most of them followed the reduction and shipment.

In the upstream ethylene market, the external ethylene market has fluctuated and risen recently, but the benefits to the EVA market are limited. The ethylene market price in Asia was stable. As of the 15th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 1056-1066 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 1041-1051 / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and rose. As of the 15th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1398-1407 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1312-1321 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 15th, the price was 636-654 yuan / ton. Recently, the external ethylene market continued to rise as a whole, mainly due to the good demand for ethylene in Europe, which led to the rise of the overall ethylene market.

At present, there is little change in the market supply convenience. In terms of demand, the downstream performance is poor, the terminal demand is weak, and the market mentality is difficult to be optimistic. The downstream maintains replenishment on demand, and the merchant mentality is poor. It is expected that the EVA market may continue to decline in the short term.

The price of zinc fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of zinc fluctuated and rose this week, and the zinc market fluctuated and rose. As of December 17, the price of zinc was 24166 yuan / ton, up 2.23% from 23638 yuan / ton on December 10 last weekend; Compared with the zinc price of 23078 yuan / ton on December 1 at the beginning of the month, an increase of 4.71%. The zinc market rose this week, and the zinc price fluctuated and rose.

LME inventories rose sharply this week

Zinc inventory statistics of LME Market

time stock Increase or decrease Change proportion

December 9th one hundred and fifty thousand and four hundred – two hundred and seventy-five – 0.18%

December 10th one hundred and sixty-four thousand four hundred and twenty-five fourteen thousand and twenty-five 9.33%

December 13th one hundred and ninety thousand and nine hundred twenty-six thousand four hundred and seventy-five 16.10%

December 14th two hundred and nine thousand one hundred and seventy-five eighteen thousand two hundred and seventy-five 9.57%

December 15th two hundred and seven thousand five hundred and seventy-five – one thousand and six hundred – 0.76%

December 16th two hundred and six thousand eight hundred and twenty-five – seven hundred and fifty – 0.36%

It can be seen from the zinc inventory statistics of LME market that since December 10, the zinc inventory in LME market has increased greatly, the zinc inventory has increased, and the supply of zinc market has increased, which has a great impact on the negative zinc price, and the zinc price has fluctuated slightly.

Electricity prices in France soared to an all-time high

EDF said on December 15, 2021 that it would shut down its two reactors at Chooz nuclear power plant this week, and the two reactors of civaux nuclear power plant would be shut down for a long time. At this time, when the European continent is experiencing a cold current and the natural gas inventory has been exhausted, the shutdown of French nuclear power plants will make the power market more tense. On the European energy exchange, the price of electricity supply in Germany jumped by more than 10% next year, and the price of electricity in Germany jumped to 230 euros per megawatt hour in 2022. Electricity prices in France soared 20 per cent to 485 euros in the previous week’s trading, while contract prices soared 40 per cent to a record 550 euros in January. The soaring electricity price is obviously bad for the nonferrous smelting market. Affected by this, nonferrous smelting enterprises reduce production and limit production, and the future supply of zinc city is expected to decrease.

Nyrstar announces closure of French zinc production plant

Nyrstar, one of the world’s largest zinc smelters, said on December 16 that in order to cope with the current and expected surge in electricity prices in France, the maintenance plan of its auby zinc project in France was advanced to the first week of January 2022. Nyrstar, a global metal mining company, is the world’s leading producer of zinc and lead. Nyrstar’s zinc production capacity in Europe is 720000 T / A. European zinc smelters stopped production again, the driving force for the rise of zinc prices increased, and the night market of zinc soared.

Market overview and future forecast

Business analysts believe that: affected by the large increase in zinc inventory in LME, the bad situation in zinc market increased and the zinc price fell slightly; Later, affected by the soaring electricity price in France, the production of European zinc smelters was reduced again, and the zinc price soared. The overall zinc price fluctuated and rose. In the future, the domestic zinc market is relatively stable, and the zinc price trend is mainly dominated by the international zinc market. The soaring electricity price leads to the decline of zinc smelting output, and the shutdown of zinc smelting in Europe exacerbates the concern of zinc supply shortage; However, zinc stocks in LME market increased significantly to make up for some concerns about zinc supply shortage. The supply shortage in zinc market may be lower than the expected reduction in production, and the zinc price expectation in the future will rise slightly.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price fluctuated and rose this week. As of December 10, the spot nickel price was 147166.67 yuan / ton, down 1.47% from 149366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 14.85% from the beginning of the week and 18.5% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have increased by 4 and decreased by 8, with more or less recent declines.

Macro factors: on December 6, the people’s Bank of China announced that the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions would be reduced by 0.5 percentage points from December 15 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio). After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions would be 8.4%.

Nickel industry chain

Supply: the Philippines, the main source of nickel ore, has entered the rainy season, and the domestic nickel ore port inventory has entered the seasonal destocking. The output of electrolytic nickel itself remained basically stable, but due to the continuous closure of the import window and the limited import volume, the total supply was slightly tight.

Downstream: in November, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.585 million and 2.522 million respectively, of which the actual sales volume was better than the forecast at the beginning of the month. In terms of growth rate changes, production and sales increased by 10.9% and 8.1% month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% and 9.1% respectively. In December, the production of 300 series stainless steel is planned to be reduced by about 100000 tons, which may have a certain impact on nickel consumption.

To sum up: China implements a more loose monetary policy to support metal prices. Nickel supply is tight, and the demand for new energy in the downstream is good, but the consumption of stainless steel in the downstream is weak. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate widely.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to be weak and the decline deepened. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3967.50 yuan / ton on December 5 and 3707.50 yuan / ton on December 10. The decline rate during the week was 6.55%, 10.18% lower than that on December 1.

As of December 10, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region 4050 yuan / ton

Hebei region 3990 yuan / ton

Henan region 3650-3690 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to decline, the prices in the main production areas of Henan mostly fell to 3700 yuan / ton, and Hebei and Shandong also followed the decline. At the beginning of the week, although the dimethyl ether Market weakened, it was relatively strong. The price of liquefied gas market of related products rose with the rise of international crude oil, which brought some support to the dimethyl ether Market. In the late part of the week, the market was not well supported, the decline of dimethyl ether deepened, the wide decline of raw methanol and the weakness of civil gas all brought bad news to the market, the market demand still did not improve significantly, the downstream resisted high prices, had a cautious attitude, had general enthusiasm for entering the market, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market was poor.

This week’s weak decline in the methanol market is mainly due to the weakening of downstream demand for MTO maintenance and formaldehyde in Ningbo Fude, the existence of warehouse discharge demand of upstream enterprises, and different mentality of traders. The methanol market fell under the background of de stocking, and the market atmosphere was depressed. The overall mood in the middle and lower reaches is poor. In addition to the rigid demand, the market is difficult to breed the demand for hoarding goods, which obviously suppresses the price.

At present, the dimethyl ether Market is not favorable, the cost of methanol and related products, civil gas are both weak, and the market demand has not increased significantly. The main production areas in Henan lead the decline, and the range is deepened. Shandong and Hebei follow the decline. It is expected that the weakness of the dimethyl ether market will be difficult to change in the short term, or continue to be the main producer.

In early December, the domestic acetone market continued the trend of last month and continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, taking the market offer in East China as an example, the offer in East China market was 5550 yuan / ton on December 1 and 5300 yuan / ton on December 13. The overall decline in East China market was dominated in the first ten days, and the overall decline in East China market was 5.45%. In the national market, as of December 13, the offer in East China reached 5300 yuan / ton, and the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas was 5400 yuan / ton, The offer in South China is 5450 yuan / ton.

On the raw material side, crude oil rebounded broadly during the week, and related commodities rose. The price of crude oil and outer disk pure benzene rose, and the cost side gave positive support; The price of styrene rose, the downstream benefited, and the price of pure benzene rose. However, the port inventory of pure benzene continued to increase, and there were still ships arriving at the port in the later stage, which suppressed the market mentality and limited the increase in the week. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation or the impact on the pure benzene related industrial chain in Zhenhai, Ningbo, the market mentality turned cautious. This week, the prices of some enterprises in Sinopec North China increased by 250 yuan / ton, while the prices in other regions remained stable at 6450 yuan / ton.

According to the price chart of business society, Propylene this week (Shandong) the price rose slightly at the beginning of the week, but the rise was weak, and the price began to fall again. As of Friday, the price of propylene in Shandong market was 7500-7550 yuan / ton. This week, it was repaired after the sharp decline of upstream oil price, which provided support for the rise of propylene. However, the main downstream polypropylene market continued to fluctuate and weaken, the supply of propylene market was sufficient, and the downstream demand support was insufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand remained, leading to the market decline The main tone of the field is down.

From the supply side, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises has maintained a stable trend.

market region Enterprise name Capacity (phenol / acetone) Proportion Device dynamics

North China Beijing yanshan petrochemical 16/10 15.9% 100%

Tianjin Zhongsha Tianjin 22/13 100%

Shandong region doy Lihua yiweiyuan 22/13 9.1% 100%

Northeast China Heilongjiang Blue Star Harbin 9.5/5.5 7.6% 90%

Jilin Jilin Petrochemical 9/5 100%

East China Shanghai Gaoqiao Petrochemical 15/9 47.9% 100%

Ningbo Taihua 30/18 50% of construction starts within the month

Jiangsu Shiyou (Yangzhou) 20/12 Shutdown for maintenance from December 6 to 12

Jiangsu Changshu Changchun 30/18

Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui 25/15 100%

Shanghai Cissa (Shanghai) 25/15 The construction started at 90%

South China Guangdong Huizhou Zhongxin 18/12 19.5%

Guangdong CNOOC shell 22/13 70% operation

From the perspective of business society, the domestic acetone market continued to decline in early December. The maintenance of Yangzhou Shiyou plant was completed, and the source of imported goods successively arrived for replenishment. The supply side was relatively sufficient, but it was difficult to make great improvement on the demand side. It was just needed to purchase. The business agency expects the acetone market to fluctuate in December.