Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2552.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2594.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.65%, an increase of 41.49% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and there is an upward trend at the weekend. On January 9, the urea commodity index was 120.65, the same as yesterday, down 16.55% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 117.00% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support was strengthened, downstream demand improved, and urea supply was insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 2780 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2560 yuan / ton this weekend, up 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2560 yuan / ton this weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Yangmei plain urea quoted 2520 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 4710.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5013.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.44%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal rose slightly. The quotation increased from 822.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 853.75 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.80%, down 1.73% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 4410.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4443.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.76%, a year-on-year increase of 35.74% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream support of urea is good, which has a positive impact on the price of urea. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was adjusted at a low level, and the quotation was 9666.67 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase in some areas, and the bidding for summer pipe fertilizer was implemented, which boosted market confidence in Pakistan’s export. The market price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. In terms of supply, Ruixing phase III unit was shut down for maintenance, mingshengda unit was shut down for a short time, and the daily output of urea decreased slightly. On the whole, urea cost support was strengthened, downstream demand improved, urea supply was insufficient, and urea increased slightly in the future.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In mid and late January, the domestic urea market may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have increased slightly, and the cost support is good. The bidding for Xiaguan fertilizer was launched, and the export of 150000 tons of urea to neighboring countries boosted market confidence. At the same time, some urea enterprises stopped their units for a short time, the supply was tight, the shipment was limited near the Spring Festival, the manufacturers had a strong attitude of supporting the price, and the urea market price in the future may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on January 7 was 11266.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week, down 3.12% compared with the beginning of the month and 11.24% month on month.

2、 Market analysis

After returning from the new year’s Day holiday, the upstream styrene price rose slightly to about 8500 yuan / ton, and then drove off and fell. The cost support is still in place. In addition, the hips market has sufficient supply, the enterprise inventory has increased, and the prices of major mainstream manufacturers have not been adjusted for the time being. The dealers continue to make profits for shipment, so there is room for negotiation. Up to now, according to the data of business society, the mainstream ex factory price of hips is mostly about 10800-12500 yuan / ton, and the price of benzene penetration is mostly 9900-10500 yuan / ton. The overall operation of PS is weak.

In the international crude oil market, on December 16, the international oil price rose. U.S. WTI crude oil futures rose by more than 2%, and the settlement price of the main contract was reported as US $72.15/barrel, up US $1.49 or 2.1%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported as US $75.02/barrel, up US $1.14 or 1.5%. The Federal Reserve made a positive statement and market confidence was boosted. Superimposed on the optimism of US commercial crude oil inventory data and implied demand data, the temporary positive atmosphere in the market overshadowed the concern that the mutant strain Omicron had a negative impact on the economy.

In terms of raw materials, on January 6, Shandong styrene market was weak. Raw material pure benzene fell, but the cost is still partially supported. Styrene futures fell, bad mentality. The port inventory is rising, and there is continuous news that new styrene units are put into operation, which is bad for the market mentality. Under the influence of the continuous fermentation of the epidemic situation, the downstream manufacturers may face the risk of accumulating stocks of styrene years ago or few goods. The market will not buy or fall, and the wait-and-see atmosphere will increase, waiting for the manufacturers to make up the decline. On the whole, styrene will still be weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The business agency believes that at present, the raw materials are volatile, but the cost support is still in progress, but the downstream demand is weakened. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the market trading is gradually weakening, and the hips market is expected to weaken slightly.

In 2021, the phosphorus chemical industry will be in full swing, especially driven by the sharp rise of yellow phosphorus, the products related to the phosphorus chemical industry chain will rise sharply, and the index will rise to the historical height of nearly a decade, which will make the traditional unknown phosphorus chemical industry shine in the environment of the simultaneous rise of the prices of more than 100 kinds of bulk commodities and attract great attention in the industry. Let’s review the trend of products related to this product chain:

On September 30, the phosphorus chemical index was 2253 points, a record high in the cycle, up 200.80% from the lowest point of 749 points on October 7, 2018. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now) according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 5 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising or falling in the list of phosphorus chemical prices in 2021. The main commodities rising are: yellow phosphorus (151.03%), phosphoric acid (130.10%), phosphate rock (73.95%); The average annual increase and decrease of this year was 89.66%.

In 2021, domestic phosphorus ores rose step by step, with an annual increase of nearly 74%

It can be seen from the column chart of phosphate rock monitored by the business society in 2021 and the annual comparison chart of phosphate rock price that the domestic phosphate rock Market in 2021 increased to varying degrees in other months except February. The largest increase was in September, the phosphate rock increased by 10.92% in that month, and the smallest increase was in February. The phosphate rock Market in that month was stable without fluctuation. The market trend of phosphorus ore in 2021 is also unprecedented in the market in recent ten years. At the end of the year, the average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore of 690 yuan / ton also set a new market high in recent ten years.

Over the past 10 years, the problems of overcapacity, serious environmental pollution and low resource utilization efficiency in China’s phosphorus chemical industry have restricted the development of phosphorus chemical industry. The primary objectives of China’s phosphorus chemical industry reform are to reduce production capacity, strengthen environmental protection measures, optimize industry resource allocation and create an integrated strategy of phosphorus chemical mining and production. The phosphorus ore market output continues to gradually decrease or will continue to be the mainstream trend of the market in the future. Therefore, the phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that most domestic phosphorus ores will continue to operate at a high level in 2022, and there is little chance of a sharp decline in the market. More attention should be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

Yellow phosphorus rose by an unprecedented 150% this year

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose sharply. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the year (January 1) was 16200 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 40666.67 yuan / ton. The price rose sharply during the year, with a range of 151.02%. In 2021, under the power restriction and environmental protection policies, the operating rate of many production enterprises in China’s yellow phosphorus industry could not be improved, the yellow phosphorus market was always in a state of insufficient supply, and the yellow phosphorus price continued to remain high. The price of yellow phosphorus has been adjusted at a high level for a long time. Most downstream traders are mainly on the sidelines. End customers have obvious resistance to high-end prices. They are more cautious in taking goods. They are more on the sidelines in the field and focus on sporadic procurement in the downstream, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. With the resumption of production of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Guizhou put on the agenda, it is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be reduced to a certain extent in 2022.

The focus of phosphoric acid market moved upward, with an annual increase of 130%

In 2021, the phosphoric acid market rose steadily in the first half of the year and fell sharply in the second half of the year, with the highest point rising to a new high in recent ten years. According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on December 31 was 11466.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 6483 yuan over the price of 4983.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year. The lowest price of the whole year was 4983 yuan / ton in January, and the highest price of the whole year was 20000 yuan / ton in October, an increase of 130.1% during the year. The phosphoric acid Market in 2021 was different from that in previous years. Affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, the raw material yellow phosphorus enterprises had serious power restriction and reduced production capacity, resulting in a sharp rise in the price of phosphoric acid this year, which led to a sharp rise in the adverse situation of the collective decline of bulk commodities in the first half of the year, and rose to the height of nearly a decade in September, and then fell back. In 2022, with the recovery of macro economy, the prices of various chemicals are gradually falling, and the price of phosphoric acid is expected to decline with the cost.

Monoammonium phosphate rose strongly, up 45% during the year

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 2116 yuan / ton on January 1 and 3083 yuan / ton on December 24. The overall increase in the whole year was 45.67% and the maximum increase in the year was 70.08%. The highest price of monoammonium phosphate in the year is 3600 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the year is 2083 yuan / ton. In 2021, the price of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise from the beginning of the year. After rising to the highest price in August, the market began to decline to the end of the year. The biggest increase in the year was in June, up 22.29%. The biggest decline in the year was in November, with a decline of 4.85%. The market of monoammonium phosphate is generally good in 2021. Due to the tight supply, cost support, demand boost and other favorable factors, the price showed an upward trend in the first three quarters as a whole. At the end of the year, the market price of monoammonium phosphate began to fall due to the low demand. The atmosphere in the venue was cold and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement decreased. At present, the monoammonium phosphate Market has not shown favorable factors for the time being. The year is approaching the end, and the market is expected to be dominated by weak operation.

Diammonium phosphate showed strong performance, with an increase of 47% during the year

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2440 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on December 24 was 3600 yuan / ton. The overall increase in the whole year was 47.54%, and the maximum increase in the year was 48.57%. The highest price of diammonium phosphate in the year is 3625 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the year is 2440 yuan / ton. In 2021, the price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise from the beginning of the year. After rising to the highest price in August, it began to operate smoothly until the end of the year. The biggest increase in the year was in February, with an increase of 16.47%. The biggest decline in the year was in April, with a decline of 1.59%. In 2021, the price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise from the beginning of the year. After rising to the highest price in August, it began to operate smoothly until the end of the year. The biggest increase in the year was in February, with an increase of 16.47%. The biggest decline in the year was in April, with a decline of 1.59%. In 2021, the market of diammonium phosphate was generally strong. Since the beginning of the year, the price has risen continuously to a high level. Due to power and production restriction and environmental protection, the price of raw materials rose, the supply of diammonium was insufficient, the downstream demand was actively followed up, and multiple advantages led to the sharp rise of diammonium market. At the end of the year, demand began to weaken and ended weakly and steadily. It is expected that the recent market will be dominated by weak and stable operation.

The demand for lithium iron phosphate soared in 2021, with an annual increase of 167.57%

In 2021, the price of lithium iron phosphate was 37000 yuan / ton in January and 99000 yuan / ton as of December 27. The overall increase of the whole year was 167.57%, reaching 62000 yuan / ton. According to statistics, the capacity of lithium iron phosphate in 2020 was 320000 tons, and the capacity of lithium iron phosphate was estimated to reach 920000 tons by December 2021. The capacity also doubled from 2009, With its low-cost and cost-effective characteristics, lithium iron phosphate has returned to people’s attention. In the fierce industry competition, it has become the mainstream of the new era from obscurity to now. Its future development prospects are all the way to good. The rapid development of lithium iron phosphate also drives the explosive growth of upstream raw materials, the price is rising all the way, and the supply side continues to be tight. At present, lithium iron phosphate is still in the stage of rapid development. Under the strong stimulation of short supply, lithium iron phosphate capacity projects continue to expand and increase production. It is expected that the increase projects will be released in 2022, the market supply of lithium iron phosphate will be alleviated, and the market share will further increase. It is expected that the expansion of enterprises and the rise of prices will move forward side by side in the next year.

Future forecast

In 2021, phosphorus chemical industry was subject to multiple factors such as double control of energy consumption, production and electricity restriction, and the phosphorus chemical industry index soared. In addition to the main factors of rising raw materials and short-term imbalance between supply and demand, there was also the help of new energy factors. In 2021, lithium iron phosphate, the most downstream of the whole phosphorus chemical industry, soared due to the surge in demand. For the upstream phosphorus chemical enterprises of new energy materials, it is not intended to be a potential incremental demand market, but also increased the attention of the phosphorus chemical industry sector in the industry. As phosphorus chemical industry itself is a highly polluting industry, with the increase of China’s environmental protection measures and the limited capacity expansion of phosphorus chemical industry, the mining volume of phosphorus ore in China has continued to decline in recent years, and the tightening of supply will continue until 2022, which will be transmitted to all products of phosphorus chemical industry from top to bottom. At the same time, affected by the concept of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, Thus, the demand for industrial grade phosphoric acid and monoammonium phosphate has increased greatly. Driven by the dual engine of agriculture and industry, the transformation and upgrading of phosphorus chemical industry has entered the field of new energy, and the industry prospect is promising.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of soda ash is down this month. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was about 3312.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 2700 yuan / ton, down 18.49% and up 101.49% over the same period last year. On December 30, the commodity index of light soda ash was 138.46, the same as yesterday, down 26.78% from the highest point of 189.10 in the cycle (2021-11-07), and up 119.26% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

It can be seen from the above figure that the price of soda ash has been continuously reduced this month, and the soda ash market was weak in December.

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is weak this month. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2400-2800 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is weak, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2900-3000 yuan / ton. On the whole, the short-term soda ash price is weak, mainly running. The manufacturer actively shipped, and the actual transaction was average. Data show that as of December 30, the overall operating rate of soda ash in the week was 78.99%. Soda ash output during the week was 528600 tons, and 566800 tons last week.

Demand: the glass price is adjusted and operated this month. The average price of glass at the beginning of the month is 24.78 yuan / m2, and the average price at the end of the month is 24.87 yuan / m2. The price is adjusted slightly by 0.36%. The glass spot market was consolidated this month. The glass spot market is weak and downward. In Shahe, North China, the market turnover is general, the market demand is weakened, and the enterprises ship flexibly. The market in East China has a strong wait-and-see mood and the transaction is flexible. The market focus in Central China is downward, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, the downstream willingness to take goods is not high, and the prices of some manufacturers are reduced. South China Glass spot market is lack of confidence, and there is more wait-and-see on the floor.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in the 51st week of 2021 (12.20-12.24), there were 1 kind of rising commodity, 3 kinds of falling commodities and 1 kind of rising and falling commodity. The main commodities rising were: caustic soda (13.07%); The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 2.40%), light soda ash (- 0.90%), PVC (- 0.36%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.88%.

According to the analysts of the business society, the monitoring data of the business society shows that the price of soda ash has been adjusted to run the market. The start-up of soda plant is relatively stable, and the price fluctuates little near the end of the month. The downstream glass demand is general, not warm and not fire. Traders are cautious, and it is comprehensively expected that soda ash will be dominated by weak consolidation operation in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 31, the average price of domestic general transparent superior products PMMA was 17650.00 yuan / ton. In December, the quotation range of PMMA manufacturers remained about 17400 yuan / ton. The overall price was higher, the negotiation focus was higher, the transaction atmosphere was general, and the price range was small.

In the first ten days of December, the market price of PMMA was mainly stable and increased steadily. The overall price change was not obvious. The downstream just needed to purchase, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced. The price at the beginning of December was 17625 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of December was 17650 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.14% for the whole month. The price change was very small.

In late December, the PMMA market mainly operated stably, and the price did not change significantly. Near the Spring Festival, PMMA shipments maintained the early trend, did not increase significantly, the downstream preparation intention was not obvious, and the negotiation atmosphere was cold.

Chemical commodity index: on December 30, the chemical index was 1103 points, unchanged from yesterday, decreased by 21.21% compared with the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and increased by 84.45% compared with the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that: near the Spring Festival of 2022, PMMA has poor willingness to prepare goods, and the overall market shipment is slow. It is mainly just needed to purchase. It is expected that PMMA will maintain the early trend and run smoothly in the short term. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fell in December, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of December 31, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 14850 yuan / ton, up or down – 8.05% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: raw material styrene rose this month. Crude oil prices picked up, pure benzene prices strengthened and cost support improved. The port inventory decreased, the domestic supply tightened at the end of the month, some goods were reluctant to sell at low prices, the delivery at the end of the month continued, the market spot was tight, and the market goods were reluctant to sell at low prices. Some northern sources began to arbitrage southward, and some domestic production enterprises increased their prices, but the domestic expectation of styrene increased one after another. In addition, the weak downstream demand restrained the market growth. In the short term, the styrene market is more likely to rise and fall.

The price of acrylonitrile weakened this month, and the spot price at the end of the month was about 15000 yuan / ton. The main factors affecting the market are the abundant supply of goods on the site, the arrival of more imported goods, the rise of port inventory, the launch of new production capacity within the month, and the decline of enterprise ex factory price.

In December, the domestic butadiene market fell in the first half of the month, then the decline stopped and entered the consolidation stage. Finally, the decline ended with the reduction of Sinopec’s price. The main reason is the drag of the external market and the sufficient supply of goods in the domestic market, resulting in the continuous decline of prices. Profits boosted the start of some downstream industries, but butadiene spot resources are still abundant. At the same time, there is no lack of low price news in the external market. Supply and demand fundamentals and external news are difficult to provide support for the domestic spot market. The domestic spot market is pushed higher and blocked. Business society butane analysts expect that the domestic butadiene market may be low in the short term.

The overall upstream market of ABS weakened, and the cost side support of ABS was poor. In terms of industry load, this month, except that the public health incident in Zhejiang had a certain impact on the operating rate of LG Yongxing and other enterprises, the operating rate of other domestic ABS enterprises was almost full. In addition, there were new production capacity of polymerization plants in the early stage, the overall supply was high and the prognosis was abundant. The operating rate of the industry has been high for a long time, and the inventory of enterprises and society has accumulated. Downstream masquerade, terminal enterprises have heard that there are still some materials in stock. In addition, the main downstream household appliances and other industries have announced the shutdown and vacation plan, so there is a heavy bearish mood in the field, the pressure on merchants to ship goods has increased, and the goods have been passively and gradually reduced.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continued to decline in December, the overall trend of the three upstream materials was weak, and the support for the cost side of ABS was poor. The domestic spot price is mainly affected by the high operating rate of the industry and insufficient demand follow-up. The market supply is sufficient but insufficient. It is expected that the ABS spot market may still fall in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, ammonium sulfate increased by 214.29% in 2021, with the largest increase of 240.48% in the year. On January 1, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 560 yuan / ton, and on December 31, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1760 yuan / ton. The highest price of ammonium sulfate in the year is 1906 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the year is 560 yuan / ton,

2、 Market analysis

In 2021, the total capacity of ammonium sulfate will be 18.55 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons compared with last year, an increase of 16.3%. In 2021, the output of ammonium sulfate was 1.37 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The export volume of ammonium sulfate from January to November in 2021 was 9.188 million tons, an increase of 1.53 million tons over last year, a year-on-year increase of 20%. In 2021, the export volume of ammonium sulfate reached a record high. On October 15, 2021, the policy stipulates that the import and export of chemical fertilizer shall be subject to legal inspection, but excluding ammonium sulfate, the export volume of ammonium sulfate has increased greatly. Shandong Hualu Hengsheng, Inner Mongolia Qinghua Group and Lunan Chemical have successfully put into production, and the supply of ammonium sulfate has increased.

The market trend of ammonium sulfate rose sharply in 2021. From the beginning of the year, ammonium sulfate rose continuously to October, and then fell to the end of the year. The biggest increase in the year was in October, with an increase of 62.96%. The biggest decline in the year was in August, with a decline of 4.89%.

From January to March 2021, the price of ammonium sulfate rose sharply, with an increase of 61.91%. At the beginning of this year, the fertilizer market has been pleasantly surprised, and nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and compound fertilizer have risen across the board. The export market of ammonium sulfate performs well, the overall inventory of the enterprise is not high, the supply of ammonium sulfate in the field is tight, and the enterprise has strong intention to support the price.

From April to June 2021, the price of ammonium sulfate increased, with a decrease of 13.36%. The price of compound fertilizer raw material urea rises, and the price of compound fertilizer increases accordingly. Due to the increase of cost, the pressure of compound fertilizer enterprises increases. With the increase of fertilizer use, the market atmosphere is gradually improved, and the demand for ammonium sulfate increases under the high-level operation of urea. Some enterprises and dealers use ammonium sulfate instead of urea fertilizer.

From July to September 2021, the price of ammonium sulfate increased by 8.33%. Due to the overhaul of some caprolactam enterprises, the supply of caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate decreased and the output was affected. Under the influence of environmental protection and dual control, it is difficult to increase the supply of ammonium sulfate. Downstream compound fertilizer raw material prices are strong, enterprises purchase on demand, and the demand for ammonium sulfate is acceptable. The price of ammonium sulfate rose steadily.

In October 2021, the price of ammonium sulfate rose sharply, with a monthly increase of 62.96%. From the second half of October, the price of ammonium sulfate began to rise sharply, ranging from 500-1000 yuan / ton. The domestic market is good, and many enterprises raise prices. Foreign demand is booming and orders are increasing. Due to good demand and tight supply, ammonium sulfate keeps rising. The price of ammonium sulfate rose to the highest level of 1906 yuan / ton in the year.

From October to December 2021, the price of ammonium sulfate decreased by 7.696%. Due to the decline in the price of compound fertilizer raw materials and insufficient cost support, there is no clear guidance in the market. Ammonium sulfate is dominated by weak domestic market. Although the demand side is still, downstream enterprises are resistant to high prices and have an obvious wait-and-see attitude. Since December, the demand side continued to be depressed, and the price trend of ammonium sulfate fell to the end of the year.

3、 Future forecast

According to the ammonium sulfate analysts of business society, ammonium sulfate will perform well in 2021, and the price of ammonium sulfate will rise sharply. The export volume of ammonium sulfate increased significantly, reaching a record high. At the end of the year, the market of ammonium sulfate began to weaken, and the price of ammonium sulfate fell back in the short term. It is expected that ammonium sulfate will continue a strong trend next year. It is suggested to pay attention to the export volume and demand change of ammonium sulfate.

1、 Price trend

The year 2021 was successfully completed. Looking at the development of titanium dioxide Market in this year, from the perspective of price, according to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of titanium dioxide rose in 2021. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide at the beginning of the year was 16666.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 20733.33 yuan / ton. The price increased by 24.4% during the year.

2、 Market analysis

Product market

In terms of market development in 2021, the first half of the year is basically in the stage of rapid rise, and the second half of the year is in the stage of slow decline. Near the end of the year, Longqi sent a letter for the tenth time. In January 2022, the price of titanium dioxide increased. At this time, the price of titanium dioxide began to pick up.

In the first quarter, the export situation of titanium dioxide enterprises was good. Dragon enterprises announced three increases, with a cumulative increase of 16% from January to March. The domestic rutile titanium dioxide factory quotation including tax is mostly 18800-20500 yuan / ton, and the anatase titanium dioxide factory quotation including tax is between 15500-18000 yuan / ton. The main domestic supply side manufacturers are in short supply. The price of raw titanium ore is high, the cost support is strong, the market confidence of titanium dioxide is good, and the price rises.

In the second quarter, Longqi once again announced its rise for three times, with a cumulative increase of 10.03% from April to June. Domestic rutile titanium dioxide factory quotation including tax is mostly 21000-21600 yuan / ton; The factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is mostly between 18300-20000 yuan / ton; The factory quotation of chlorinated titanium dioxide with tax is mostly 22500-24000 yuan / ton. The spot price of titanium ore market continued to rise, the price of sulfuric acid also continued to rise, and the cost support performance was strong. At the same time, export orders performed well. Under the superposition of positive factors, the titanium dioxide market continued to rise.

In the third quarter, Longqi sent letters twice to announce the rise, but due to the rapid rise in the early stage. Domestic demand has entered the off-season, and downstream procurement is beginning to weaken. The price increase letter has played a role in stabilizing the price to a certain extent. The actual transaction price is in a slow decline stage. 7-9, with a cumulative decrease of 2.86%. Domestic rutile titanium dioxide factory quotation including tax is mostly 19500-21600 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17600-19500 yuan / ton. At present, titanium dioxide enterprises are limited by the sound of films, more parking, low market operation, and many enterprises have sent letters to raise prices. The trading market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Traders are more cautious in taking goods and mainly purchase on demand.

In the fourth quarter, Longqi sent a letter in October to announce the rise, so as to promote stability. In October, the domestic titanium dioxide market price was basically stable. From the end of November to the beginning of December, the titanium dioxide market turned weak, coupled with the gradual cooling in the northern region, the demand contracted. The market price of titanium dioxide decreased slightly. On December 13, Longqi sent a letter for the tenth time announcing that the price of titanium dioxide would rise in January 2022, when the price of titanium dioxide began to pick up. From October to December, the decline was 1.03%. Up to now, the domestic rutile titanium dioxide factory quotation including tax is mostly 19500-21500 yuan / ton; The factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is mostly between 17600-19500 yuan / ton. Downstream demand is light, traders are more cautious and wait-and-see, and the titanium dioxide market mainly operates stably.

Import and export data

According to customs statistics, the import volume of titanium dioxide from January to November 2021 was 176200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24400 tons, an increase of 16.08%. It is estimated that the annual import volume will be 190000 tons and the monthly average import volume will be 15800 tons.

According to customs statistics, the total export volume of titanium dioxide from January to November 2021 was 1178000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 73900 tons, an increase of 6.70%. It is expected that the annual export volume will be 1.28 million tons and the average monthly export volume will be 107000 tons.

Production capacity

According to public data, China’s titanium dioxide production capacity will be about 4.37 million tons in 2021, an increase of 9% over last year. Due to the continuous strong market demand, the production capacity of titanium dioxide is growing steadily. From January to November 2021, the output of titanium dioxide in China was 3.4791 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 312900 tons, an increase of 9.88%. The annual output is expected to be about 3.79 million tons.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society chemical branch believe that at present, the domestic titanium dioxide market price is mainly stable. Titanium dioxide enterprises have successively sent letters that the price of titanium dioxide will rise next month, which has played a certain role in boosting the market. In addition, the current titanium ore price has increased slightly, so the cost support of titanium dioxide enterprises is strong. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will run steadily and well in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of 85% domestic industrial formic acid enterprises was 2650 yuan / ton on January 1, 2021. As of December 29, the average price of domestic formic acid enterprises was 4300 yuan / ton, which increased by 62.26% during the year. The lowest price in the year was 2433.33 yuan / ton on April 27, and the highest price in the year was 8050 yuan / ton on October 14, with a maximum amplitude of 230.82%.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of formic acid from January 2021 to November 2021, it can be seen that the monthly price of formic acid increased more or decreased less in 2021, and the overall trend increased. The market fell in February, April and November, and rose in other months. The largest increase was in September (78.15%) and the largest decrease was in November (46.28%).

In the first quarter (January March), the price of formic acid increased slightly, with an increase of 8.18%. In January, the market quotation of formic acid remained high and stable, and the downstream pesticide, rubber, leather and pharmaceutical industries collected goods according to the market demand, dominated by rigid demand. In February, raw material prices rose and fell, the downstream market entry enthusiasm was general, the market transaction atmosphere was flat, and the market fell. In March, the formic acid market fluctuated and rose. Affected by the device failure of a manufacturer, the market supply was tight and the market price rose.

In the second quarter (April June), the price of formic acid first fell and then rose, and then operated steadily, with an overall decline of 7.26%. In April, 85% of the domestic formic acid market fell weakly, the prices of manufacturers and dealers decreased in varying degrees, the raw material prices were weak in the middle of the year, the inventory was high in the late day, and the market price continued to decline. After the May Day holiday, there is replenishment demand in the downstream, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the offer of cargo holders rises. With the rise of raw material prices, the rise of costs superimposes export demand, and the overall offer and transaction focus of formic acid market move upward. In June, the formic acid market was high and stable.

In the third quarter (July September), the price of formic acid soared by 189.76%. In July, the overall trend of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market rose, with a monthly increase of 9.64%. In August, the inventory of formic acid market was low, and the domestic main downstream just needed to follow up steadily. In addition, with export support, the market atmosphere was positive, the mentality was strong, and the price rose sharply, with a monthly increase of 48.35%. In September, the raw material side operated strongly, the supply of goods in the market was tight, and the export support was still stable. The domestic main downstream continued to focus on just demand. In addition, the holiday was approaching, the downstream prepared goods orderly, the enterprise shipped smoothly, and the focus of market trading continued to rise, with a monthly increase of 78.15%.

In the fourth quarter (October December), the price of formic acid fell. As of December 29, the decline in this stage was 46.36%. In October, the formic acid market was high and stable. In November, the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid fell sharply, mainly the price of raw materials, the cost support continued to loosen, the market confidence weakened, and the price of formic acid fell sharply. In December, the price of formic acid stopped falling and rose again, with limited cost support, dissatisfaction with the operating load of enterprises and shortage of market supply. The sharp decline in the price of formic acid in the early stage stimulated the purchase enthusiasm of the downstream, the market trading atmosphere warmed up and the price rose.

Future forecast:

To sum up, the price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid will rise sharply in 2021. At present, the raw material methanol market is mainly in the doldrums, the caustic soda market is relatively strong, the liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable, the sulfuric acid price rises slightly, the cost side support is general, and there is still some support on the supply and demand side. It is expected that the formic acid market may be stable, medium and strong in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic sulfuric acid market price first fell and then rose this month. The quotation increased from 628.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 645.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 16.67 yuan / ton, or 2.65%, and a year-on-year increase of 49.13% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this month. On December 27, the commodity index of sulfuric acid was 100.39, up 0.52 points from yesterday, down 27.66% from the highest point of 138.78 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and up 218.50% from the lowest point of 31.52 points on June 6, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 1, 2011)

The upstream support is enhanced and the downstream demand is general

Domestic sulfuric acid Market in December

manufactor December 1st December 18th December 28th

Heze river source 830 yuan / ton 890 yuan / ton 900 yuan / ton

Zou Ping Tianlu 380 yuan / ton 520 yuan / ton 590 yuan / ton

Liaocheng Huatong 460 yuan / ton 460 yuan / ton 480 yuan / ton

Changzhou Qinghong 750 yuan / ton 700 yuan / ton 650 yuan / ton

Changzhou Changjiang River 650 yuan / ton 600 yuan / ton 600 yuan / ton

Xiangcheng San’an 700 yuan / ton 650 yuan / ton 650 yuan / ton

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers increased slightly this month, the manufacturer’s inventory is small, and the downstream demand is general. The quotation of Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid was 900 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which increased by 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Zouping Tianlu offered 590 yuan / ton at the end of this month, an increase of 210 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of this month; The quotation of Liaocheng Huatong sulfuric acid at the end of the month was 480 yuan / ton, which increased by 20 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Changzhou Qinghong offered 650 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The quotation of Changzhou Changjiang River at the end of the month is 600 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; The quotation of Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid at the end of the month was 650 yuan / ton, which decreased by 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has increased slightly recently. The quotation has increased from 2000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2026.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 26.67 yuan / ton, or 1.33%, a year-on-year increase of 100.00% compared with the same period last year. The cost support is enhanced, which has a positive impact on sulfuric acid. The downstream formic acid market first fell and then rose. The quotation first fell from 4300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 4133.33 yuan / ton on December 3, down 3.88%, and then rose to 4300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 4.03%, up 70.86% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream bromine market fell sharply. The quotation fell from 67125.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 53142.86 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 13982.14 yuan / ton, down 20.83%, up 59.43% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream markets have ups and downs, and the downstream has poor enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a negative impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month.

The market outlook fell slightly

The domestic sulfuric acid Market in the middle and early ten days of January may fluctuate and fall slightly. The upstream sulfur price has increased slightly recently and the cost support has been strengthened, but the downstream bromine market has fallen sharply, the downstream formic acid market has been consolidated at a low level, the downstream has poor enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend is downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business society sulfuric acid analysts believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term sulfuric acid market, the sulfuric acid market may fluctuate and decline slightly.