From March 10 to March 17, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene decreased from 7425 yuan / ton last weekend to 6491 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly decrease of 12.58%.

On March 16, the price of international crude oil futures continued to fall. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $95.04/barrel, down US $1.4 or 1.5%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $98.02/barrel, down US $1.89 or 1.9%. The data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories rose for the first time in three weeks, and the market was worried that high oil prices would suppress demand.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

March 3, 8200.,+300

March 4, 8500.,+300

March 7, 8750.,+250

March 9, 8900.,+150

March 14, 8600.,-300

March 16, 8200.,-400

The price of 8200 yuan / ton of pure benzene was listed on February 16, 2023, and the price of 8200 yuan / ton of pure benzene was lowered by SINOPEC.

Other enterprises: Jincheng Petrochemical offers 7800 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8200 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8250 yuan / ton.

As can be seen from the above ex factory price adjustment table of Sinopec pure benzene in March 2022, the cycle of price rise of pure benzene driven by crude oil has completely ended, and the price of pure benzene has fallen back to the price at the beginning of March, while the price of crude benzene, which is greatly affected by the fluctuation of pure benzene, also returned to the level at the beginning of March after the introduction of the bidding price this week, and the increase brought by the rise of crude oil has basically dropped.

The trend of crude oil has always been one of the more important factors affecting the pure benzene industrial chain, and the trend of hydrogenated benzene, crude benzene and other products in the industrial chain are greatly affected by crude oil. The current round of increase has basically ended after pure benzene fell back to the origin, and the impact on the market is relatively uncertain at present. In terms of supply and demand, the downstream hydrobenzene enterprises are currently operating stably, and the demand for crude benzene is OK. However, after four rounds of increase in coke, the profits of coking enterprises are OK, and their enthusiasm for operation has also been improved to a certain extent. The supply of crude benzene is relatively stable, and the enterprises are actively shipping. This week, after Sinopec lowered the ex factory price for two consecutive rounds, the bidding price of crude benzene decreased significantly. In Shandong, it was 6650-6655 yuan / ton, down 850 yuan / ton from last week.

In the future market, the business society believes that crude oil continues to decline broadly, Asian pure benzene in the external market follows the weakness, and the cost support weakens; Superimposed on the impact of public health events in many places in China, transportation is limited, factory shipments are blocked, and the focus continues to decline. In the future, we will focus on the downstream trend and the impact of the external price of crude oil and pure benzene on the market mentality.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, on March 11, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 17000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week and the same as that at the beginning of the month. Compared with the same period last year, the price increased by 17.51%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of salicylic acid was strong this week, and the pricing of enterprises was basically unchanged. The price of raw phenol rose slightly, the cost support was strong, the replenishment intention of downstream factories and traders was revealed, followed up on demand, the market trading was stable, the salicylic acid market continued to maintain a stable trend, and there was a certain space for negotiation. By the end of the weekend, according to the data of business agency, the market offer of raw phenol was 11000-11250 yuan / ton, the quotation of domestic salicylic acid industrial enterprises was mostly in the range of 14000-19000 yuan / ton, the quotation of pharmaceutical grade was mostly in the range of 24000-27000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of sublimation grade was mostly in the range of 20000-23000 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, since March, the domestic phenol market has focused on the main actors, mainly supported by the favorable cost side. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic phenol market was 10812 yuan / ton on March 1, and 11175 yuan / ton on March 11, up 3.35%. As of March 11, the offer of East China market was about 11250 yuan / ton, that of South China was 11300 yuan / ton, and that of North China and surrounding areas of Shandong was about 11100 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The salicylic acid analyst of business agency believes that at present, the negotiation focus of the raw material market is upward and the cost support is strengthened. However, considering the downstream receiving state, the salicylic acid market continues to maintain a stable trend and is not expected to fluctuate greatly in the short term.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on March 11, the average price of silver market in early trading was 5133 yuan / kg, with a daily increase of 0.52%, which was 4.15% higher than the average price of 4928.33 yuan / kg in spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the early morning average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 7.61%.

On March 11, the spot market price of gold was 404.84 yuan / g, up 0.25% on a daily basis, up 4.53% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 8.72%.

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, and the long-term trend is basically the same. Today, the price deviates.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

List of policies

Domestic:

According to the preliminary statistics of the Central Bank of China, the stock of social financing scale at the end of February 2022 was 321.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Among them, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 196.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%.

Overseas:

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, real yields in the eurozone rose sharply, and the yield of Italian 10-year inflation linked bonds rose nearly 40 basis points to – 0.58%.

The Central Bank of Hungary raised the one week deposit rate by 50 basis points to 5.85% (previously expected to increase to 6%). The Central Bank of Hungary raised the mortgage interest rate from 5.4% to 6.4%

The Central Bank of Pakistan maintained its key interest rate at 9.75%.

The main reason for the good market of precious metals in March

Recently, the Ukrainian Russian conflict has led to an increase in risk aversion of international capital and pushed the price of noble metals.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices. The upper limit of precious metals is high in the short term, but it is possible to continue to rush.

The spot tin market price (3.4-3.11) fluctuated this week. The average price in the domestic market was 342030 yuan / ton last weekend and 343630 yuan / ton this weekend, up 0.47% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 10th week of 2022 (3.7-3.11), there are seven kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including one kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were nickel (9.37%), metallic silicon (2.35%) and antimony (1.56%). A total of 15 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 2 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (- 11.01%), aluminum (- 8.31%) and zinc (- 3.96%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.44%.

In the futures market, Lunxi rose sharply on Tuesday, rising to a new record high of US $51000 / ton, mainly affected by the time of Russia and Ukraine. The overall market rose. Lunxi rose sharply due to capital disturbance. Later, as the situation eased, the funds left the market, the price fell, and gradually returned to the normal range. The trend of Shanghai tin basically followed that of Lunxi.

Basically, the import of tin concentrate in Myanmar is relatively stable, the construction of domestic refineries is OK, and the market expects the output of refined tin to rise to a certain extent in March. At present, the domestic tin inventory is still low, the downstream solder enterprises are currently operating on the low side, the demand for tin is weak, and the tin market as a whole is still in a pattern of weak supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose first and then fell this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market first rose from 15166.67 yuan / ton on March 5 to 15466.67 yuan / ton on March 10, an increase of 1.98%, and then fell to 15266.67 yuan / ton on March 11, a decrease of 1.29%. On the whole, isobutyraldehyde prices rose slightly this week and showed a downward trend over the weekend.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increased slightly this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 15200 yuan / ton, which increased by 600 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde’s ex factory quotation this weekend is 15500 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 15200 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell this week. The quotation first rose from 9017.17 yuan / ton on March 5 to 9314.17 yuan / ton on March 8, an increase of 3.29%, and then fell to 9062.17 yuan / ton on March 11, a decrease of 2.71%. The market price of upstream raw materials has a downward trend and the cost support is general. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 19000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 18166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 4.39%. The neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream demand weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid March may mainly decline slightly. The upstream propylene market has a downward trend and the cost support is general. The downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market, the isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the data of business agency, as of March 6, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6080.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 2.18% from 5950.00 yuan / ton on February 28.

On March 6, the fuel oil commodity index was 123.14, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.97% from the highest point 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 167.23% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The high international crude oil price and the rising price of domestic marine oil raw materials support the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of March 6, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 6200 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 6300 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Shanghai is 6100 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST fuel oil is 6200 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices soared. The news of IEA member states releasing crude oil reserves did not cool the overheated oil market, and international crude oil futures still rose sharply. It is difficult for Russia and Ukraine to reach a satisfactory outcome in the negotiations, the war in Ukraine is difficult to calm down in the short term, and oil prices soared amid the increasing expectation of energy supply interruption. Judging from the amount of crude oil reserves released by IEA Member States, 2 million barrels are released every day for 30 days, and the total release is only 60 million barrels. At present, Russia’s crude oil output is about 10 million barrels / day, which is only Russia’s output in six days, which is a drop in the bucket. At present, the Western camp’s sanctions against Russia have increased “swift”, known as the financial “nuclear bomb” level sanctions. Some Russian banks will not be able to conduct cross-border trade settlement under this system, which will be a fatal blow to Russia’s energy exports. The market is generally worried about the interruption of energy supply in the future. Instead of calming the oil price, the IEA declaration made the oil price reach a new high in the sound of panic.

Singapore’s rising fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of March 2, Singapore’s fuel inventory rose 368000 barrels to a two-week high of 21.738 million barrels. As of the week of March 2, Singapore’s medium distillate stocks rose 563000 barrels to a one month high of 7.918 million barrels. As of the week of March 2, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory decreased by 688000 barrels to a more than one month low of 13.756 million barrels.

Future forecast: the sharp rise of international crude oil and the rise of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market support the price of fuel oil, but the terminal demand is general, the transaction is mainly on demand and wait-and-see. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 6000-6200 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 6100-6300 yuan / ton. Due to cost constraints, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may continue to rise in the near future.

The price of acetic anhydride stabilized after falling this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride stabilized after falling this week. As of March 7, the price of acetic anhydride was 6725 yuan / ton, down 1.82% from 6850 yuan / ton on February 28 at the beginning of last week. The actual transaction price fell below 6500 yuan / ton, touching the cost price of some manufacturers.

The price of raw material acetic acid stopped falling and rebounded

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society that the price of acetic acid stabilized after falling this week, with a decrease of 0.92%. The price of acetic acid stopped falling and rebounded this week, the market of acetic acid stabilized, the cost of acetic anhydride stabilized, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride weakened.

The price of raw material methanol fluctuated and rose

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club, the methanol price fluctuated and rose this week. On March 7, the methanol price was 2855 yuan / ton, up 6.93% from 2670 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. This week, the methanol price rose, the methanol market warmed up, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, the price of acetic acid stopped falling and stabilized this week, the price of methanol fluctuated and rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the market of acetic anhydride recovered, the price of acetic anhydride manufacturers approached the cost line, and the falling space of acetic anhydride weakened. In the future, the demand for acetic anhydride is insufficient, the supply is sufficient, the cost of acetic anhydride rises, the price approaches the cost line, some manufacturers fall below the cost line, and the falling space of acetic anhydride is limited. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will stabilize in the future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fell last week, and the spot prices of various brands fell to a certain extent. As of March 7, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 33500 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 1.47% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the adipic acid Market in East China fluctuates, arranges and operates, the market is stable and small, and the manufacturer is willing to support the price. However, the supporting effect of raw material pure benzene is strengthened, and the adipic acid market is expected to strengthen. Adiponitrile has recently been affected by the news of domestic production lines, the level of port arrival is general, and the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The price of adipic acid, the upstream raw material, is generally stable, the change of adiponitrile supply is limited, and the cost side support of PA66 is general. At present, the operating rate of the industry is at a high level, and the load level of domestic PA66 industry has basically returned to normal. The inventory position in Hong Kong is not high, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is limited. In terms of demand, the current buyer’s follow-up situation is biased towards just need to maintain production. The buyer camp has strong resistance to high price sources, and the merchant’s shipment fluency is poor. The transaction resistance on the floor increased, the seller’s mentality was affected, and the range of offer negotiation was expanded last week.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 continued to fall last week. The improvement of adiponitrile market on the raw material side is limited, the adipic acid market is concussive, and the cost side support of PA66 is general. The load of PA66 enterprise is in a high position, and the support of the supply side to the spot is weak. Downstream users have deep resistance to high price sources. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish and the market momentum is insufficient. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak market in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of March 4, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8600 yuan / ton. Compared with February 27 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8083 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 517 yuan / ton, or 6.39%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that this week, the domestic n-propanol market showed an upward trend as a whole. Since the beginning of this week, the market situation of n-propanol in Shandong has also been running up slightly. Some n-propanol suppliers in the field have slightly increased the ex factory price of n-propanol by 50-100 yuan / ton. Near the weekend, with the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the demand side support has been strengthened, and the trading atmosphere in the field of n-propanol has improved, Positive suppliers of n-propanol factories have significantly increased the ex factory price of n-propanol by around 400-600 yuan / ton. As of March 4, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 7600-8150 yuan / ton, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is stable, and the ex factory price of n-propanol is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, on March 3, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1246-1256 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1246-1256 / ton, and the international crude oil futures price fell. The US Iran nuclear negotiations have made some progress, and Iranian oil has returned to the international supply market, which has alleviated the tension of supply to a certain extent. On March 3, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $107.67/barrel, down US $2.93 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $110.46/barrel, down US $2.47 or 2.2%. Affected by the decline of upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market in the later stage may mainly fall below.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of n-propanol market is warm, and the downstream demand has improved. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mostly stable, medium and strong, and the specific changes in supply and demand need to be paid more attention to.

Trend of magnesium in February

The price curve of magnesium market in February can be described as twists and turns. Specifically, when returning to the market after the festival at the beginning of the month, the market price is relatively stable without the support of bad and good consumers. In the second half of this month, the price of magnesium began its downward channel, closing down 9.26% in a week. The downstream transaction was sluggish and lacked favorable support. At the end of the month, the market rebounded again, rising 12.65% a week, which caught many people in the industry off guard. According to the price data of business agency, as of February 27, the market tax included spot exchange was 46000 yuan / ton, up about 3000 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, an increase of 6.98%.

Market analysis

In terms of market: when the Spring Festival holiday comes back, there are not many purchases when the downstream inventory is temporarily digested, the demand performance is relatively mild, and the power of price rise is insufficient. After the Lantern Festival, the demand release was less than expected, and the overall transaction rhythm was slow. When the magnesium price fell to the buyer’s psychological price, the market transaction enthusiasm increased.

In terms of inventory: according to the business agency, the market transaction improved last week, and the inventory of magnesium plants gradually decreased. It is learned from traders that the current magnesium price is at a high level, and the inventory situation of each factory is different. The spot inventory of some magnesium plants is in a hurry, so they do not offer for the time being, which highlights the reluctance to sell.

Policy: the environmental protection policy continues to affect the price of magnesium ingots. Recently, the market once again heard the news that the transformation policy of Yulin blue carbon furnace will be implemented, and the magnesium market will make waves again. Stimulated by this news, the market trading atmosphere heated up again last week, the panic of downstream customers spread, the procurement was extremely active, and the procurement began with foreign orders.

Future forecast

At present, the price is at a high level, the actual high price acceptance of downstream customers is limited, the procurement operation is more cautious, the upward driving force of magnesium price is weakened, while the inventory pressure of magnesium plant is small as a whole, and the factory has a strong willingness to support the price due to the impact of environmental protection policies. According to business analysts, the price of magnesium ingots remained high and stable in March, and the expected impact of the upcoming transformation of blue carbon facilities in Yulin on the price of magnesium ingots only involves some magnesium enterprises in Yulin, which has a relatively small impact on the supply and demand of magnesium ingots. For the future market, the market demand follow-up is ahead of the policy.