DOP prices fluctuated and fell in April

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DOP fluctuated and fell in April, and the DOP market fell. As of April 30, the DOP price was 11775 yuan / ton, down 4.27% from 12300 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. Plasticizer DOP prices fell weakly.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic isooctanol market fluctuated and fell in April. As of April 30, the price of isooctanol was 12333.33 yuan / ton, down 3.9% from April 1 at the beginning of the month. In April, the epidemic prevention and control in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta were strengthened, the start-up of isooctanol enterprises decreased, the transportation was limited, the downstream start-up was low, the terminal demand was poor, and the overall isooctanol market weakened. The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOP decreased, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in April

According to the price monitoring of business society, the market of phthalic anhydride continued to decline in April, and the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. As of April 30, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8137.50 yuan / ton, down 6.87% from 8737.50 yuan / ton on April 1. In April, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline in March, the downstream plasticizer manufacturers started to adjust at a low level, the demand for phthalic anhydride was insufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell. The cost of DOP raw materials decreased, and the downward pressure on DOP prices increased.

Future expectations

According to the DOP data analyst of business agency, the prevention and control of domestic epidemic was strengthened in April, the start-up of plasticizer industrial chain was adjusted at a low level, the supply and demand of industrial chain were weak, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, and the cost of DOP raw materials decreased; The downstream start-up was low, the downstream demand of DOP decreased by nearly half, and the downward pressure of DOP increased. May day is approaching recently. Downstream customers prepare goods, and DOP prices rebound and rise. In the future, after the festival, the stock will be replenished, and the price of plasticizer may rebound slightly, but the price of raw materials in the overall plasticizer industry chain will decline, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 28, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-grade cyclohexane was 9166.67 yuan / ton, and the price was mainly stable. Compared with the same period last month, the price increased slightly by 3.97%, and compared with the beginning of this month, the price increased by 1.1%. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 9000 yuan / ton, mainly maintaining stable operation, stable negotiation focus and normal supply.

In the first ten days of April, the average price of domestic industrial grade excellent product cyclohexane was 9100 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 8900 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply side was normal. The latest prices of enterprises: 8400 yuan / ton of Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd., 8600 yuan / ton of Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd., 8600 yuan / ton of Liaocheng yuanze chemical products Co., Ltd, Shandong ruishuang Chemical Co., Ltd. is 900 yuan / ton, and Shandong yushuo Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. As of April 8, the price of pure benzene in the upstream is 8500-8650 yuan / ton (the average price is 8580 yuan / ton). The average price is 50 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 0.59%, and 28.06% higher than the same period last year. The maintenance of pure benzene plant is concentrated, and the supply side is expected to tighten; Under the influence of public health events, the operating rate of pure benzene and main downstream units decreased. Under the influence of domestic public health events, the mentality of pure benzene market is poor and the short-term trend is weak.

In the middle of April, the cyclohexane market still operated stably, and the price fluctuated slightly. The average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 9133.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 9100 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane was balanced, and the downstream just needed procurement was the main. The focus of negotiation was stable and the supply side was normal. The latest price of the enterprise was 9200 yuan / ton of Pande (Shanghai) International Trade Co., Ltd, As of November, the price of Shandong chunrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. / shangrun Xinsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 9200 tons, and the price of Shandong chunrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. / Qingrun Chemical Co., Ltd. was lowered to 9200 tons. As of November, the price of Shandong chunrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. / Shangxin Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9200 tons. In April, the maintenance of pure benzene plant was concentrated, and the supply was tightened, which is expected to support the price of pure benzene. In the short term, the price of pure benzene is 8300-8650 yuan / ton.

In late April, the domestic cyclohexane market maintained a stable operation, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 9100 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane was balanced, and the downstream just needed procurement was the main. The focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply side was normal. The latest prices of enterprises: 9200 yuan / ton for Pende (Shanghai) International Trade Co., Ltd., 9200 yuan / ton for Nanjing Runsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd., 9200 yuan / ton for Shandong Zhiying new materials Co., Ltd, Nantong Runfeng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 9200 yuan / ton, and Wuhan Jixin Yibang Biotechnology Co., Ltd. is 9200 yuan / ton.

Chemical index: on April 27, the chemical index was 1166 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 16.71% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 94.98% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business society, the cyclohexane market is expected to operate smoothly in the short term, and the mainstream price range is about 9000-9200 yuan / ton. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

In April, the domestic dimethyl ether Market showed a trend of first strength and then weakness, and the overall focus of Henan market shifted downward. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4156.67 yuan / ton on April 1 and 4095.00 yuan / ton on April 26, with a decline of 1.48% during the month and an increase of 8.62% compared with March 1.

As of April 26, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi Province, 4320 yuan / ton

Hebei Province, 4300 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 4020-4120 yuan / ton

In April, the overall trend of domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak. The market in Henan showed a trend of first high and then low, with a decline greater than the increase. The market prices in Shandong and Hebei were weak and consolidated. In the first half of the month, due to the favorable rise in the civil market of liquefied gas, the dimethyl ether Market was stable and upward, and the market inventory pressure was small. The manufacturers shipped more smoothly and had a strong mentality. In the second half of the month, the market was obviously bearish. The raw material methanol market fell significantly, the cost support was insufficient, the civil market of liquefied gas was weak, the downstream mentality was cautious, mainly on the sidelines, and the price of dimethyl ether weakened. Near the end of the month, affected by the parking and maintenance of some manufacturers, the price rebounded, but the market was not good, and the rebound range was limited.

On April 26, the transaction of methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province was 2660-2680 yuan / ton, which was delivered to cash exchange. The transaction was general, and the early-stage contract was mostly executed. The negotiated price of methanol market in Zibo, Shandong Province was 2680-2690 yuan / ton, which was sent to cash exchange. The ex factory cash exchange of local factories fell to 2900-3000 yuan / ton, and the transaction was poor. The methanol market in Henan fell. The bidding transaction price of Henan energy is 2600 yuan / ton, and the factory will withdraw cash exchange, while the quotation of other enterprises will be reduced. The factory reference is 2700 yuan / ton, and the factory will withdraw cash exchange; The offer in Luoyang market fell to 2600-2610 yuan / ton.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is weak and falling, and the civil price of related products liquefied gas is mixed. The overall trend is weak, and there is no obvious positive support in the market. However, near the May Day holiday, there is a certain replenishment demand before the downstream Festival, the manufacturer’s mentality is relatively strong, and the price continues to rise slightly. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market may weaken in May.

According to the reference price of butanone (1459300 tons / day), the average price of butanone decreased by 26.90% as of February 2023, compared with the average price of 1459300 tons / day in the domestic market.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in April, the domestic butanone market generally went down. In the first ten days of April, after returning from the Qingming holiday, on the 7th, the domestic butanone market ushered in a slight rise. The ex factory price of butanone increased by about 100 yuan / ton. Most of the rise came from the support given by the tight inventory at the supply side. The overall boost on the downstream demand side was general, and the butanone market was mostly stable and consolidated. On the 14th, the low-end price of butanone in Shandong moved up by 100 yuan / ton, and other factories and spot traders mostly made stable quotations. As of April 15, the ex factory price of domestic butanone is around 15000-15200 yuan / ton, and the high-end price is around 15400 yuan / ton.

In late April, the trading atmosphere in the domestic butanone market was always tepid. Due to the influence of logistics and transportation and other factors, the downstream demand was restricted. On the 19th, the domestic butanone factory in Shandong reduced the ex factory price of butanone by 200 yuan / ton to 14700 yuan / ton. The atmosphere of butanone on-site trading was light, and the overall operating rate of butanone was low due to the maintenance of devices in some parts of China. The pressure of spot supply of butanone was small, and many factories made stable quotations. On the 20th, Shandong factory slightly callback the price of butanone, increasing the range by 100 yuan / ton to 14800 yuan / ton. However, the downstream demand support is weak, the supply and demand circulation is slow, and the transaction volume of butanone is limited. Since the 22nd, the domestic butanone market has been running downward again. The on-site supply and demand is deadlocked, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the demand follow-up is insufficient. As of the 26th, the ex factory price of domestic butanone is around 14000-14700 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price is reduced by 300-700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.9% in the month. At present, the on-site trading of butanone is still cautious, focusing on real orders and more negotiations.

In the upstream, according to the monitoring data of the business society, as of April 25, the reference price of liquefied gas was 6380 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.75% compared with April 1 (6270 yuan / ton). On April 25, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2206 was 6030, the highest price was 6049, the lowest price was 5761, the closing price was 5799, the former settlement price was 6121, the settlement price was 5897, down 322, down 5.26%, the trading volume was 140726, the position was 61332, and the daily position was increased by – 475. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Future analysis of butanone

At present, the bearish sentiment in the downstream of butanone is heavy, the confidence of operators is weak, and the butanone factory has a certain shipping pressure. The butanone data division of business society believes that in the short term, the market situation of butanone is mostly weak, and the effective support in the field is still insufficient. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the news changes of supply and demand and the changes of environmental factors in the field.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of April 25, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-class power product, was 160000 yuan / ton. It was mainly purchased in the downstream, and the overall market operated smoothly. At present, the supply of manufacturers is still tight, some manufacturers are shut down, the supply of goods is tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the arrangement and delivery of contract customers, the number of new orders is limited, the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the price remains high, and the upstream remains high, Continued price support operation, lithium iron phosphate cost pressure still exists.

As of April 21, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 470000 yuan / ton. Lithium carbonate analysts of business society believe that the impact of the current epidemic continues and the impact on the demand side still exists. With the weakening support of high price lithium salt, there is a dumping sentiment in the market, which puts pressure on the price of lithium carbonate. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the short term will be weak and volatile.

Chemical commodity index: on April 24, the chemical index was 1171 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 16.36% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 95.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be dominated in the short term, and the supply of spot goods is tight. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PC market fell weakly this week, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of April 24, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business society was about 21700 yuan / ton, up or down – 4.26% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the domestic bisphenol a market was stable and small this week, and the offer of the factory was stable. The raw material phenol is in weak operation, and the downstream inventory consumption is slow, but the operating rate has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The bisphenol A carriers are tight in supply and reluctant to sell obviously. If there is pre holiday stock in the short term, the bisphenol a market will operate strongly.

The upstream bisphenol a market is sorted out, which can support the cost side of PC. In terms of industry load, there was a production line that was overhauled and resumed work, the on-site supply increased, and the support of the supply side for spot prices weakened. The tension between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe is becoming more and more anxious, which affects the high price of crude oil in the upstream of the far end, and has a general cost transmission effect on PC. The current health events still have the impression that in some parts of East China, the market transportation and demand have shrunk due to its impact, the mentality of operators has weakened, the offer of merchants has been reduced, and the shipment tends to follow the market.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: the domestic PC market fell weakly this week, the upstream bisphenol a market was sorted and operated, and the cost side had a fair supporting effect on PC. In terms of supply, there is abundant supply, and in terms of demand, the spot trading is relatively light. The on-site trading continues to be restricted by health events, and the market momentum decreases. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of the morning of April 17, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 18900.00 yuan / ton, down 0.18% compared with the price on Monday (April 11) and 1.90% compared with the price on March 17.

The epichlorohydrin market was weak this week (4.11-4.17). Recently, the raw material propylene market has been consolidated and operated, the raw material glycerol price has been under pressure, the cost support is limited, the downstream demand performance is poor, the just needed replenishment is mainly, the shipment of goods holders is not smooth, the market mentality is under pressure, and the epichlorohydrin market has declined.

Upstream propylene, propylene market consolidation operation (4.11-4.15). According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fluctuated this week, and the price fell slightly. The market was 8460 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the average price at the weekend was 8441 yuan / ton, down 0.23%.

For downstream epoxy resin, on April 15, the reference price of epoxy resin was 25450.00, a decrease of 1.64% compared with April 1 (25875.00).

The epichlorohydrin analyst of business society believes that at present, the impact of cost is limited, the supply side is expected to improve, the demand side is weak, and the supply and demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

The price of orthobenzene fell sharply this week

According to the price trend chart of orthobenzene in business society, the price of orthobenzene fell sharply this week. As of April 18, the price of orthobenzene was 8200 yuan / ton, down 4.65% from 8600 yuan / ton on April 10 at the beginning of the week. This week, the market of orthobenzene industrial chain continued to decline, and the market of orthobenzene fell.

Mixed xylene prices fell sharply this week

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in business society, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply this week. As of April 18, the price of mixed xylene was 7140 yuan / ton, down 4.55% from 7480 yuan / ton on April 10 at the beginning of the week. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine eased, the high price of crude oil fell, and mixed xylene fell. This week, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply, the cost of o-xylene decreased, and the downward pressure of o-xylene increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell

As can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart of business society, the phthalic anhydride price fluctuated and fell this week. As of April 18, the phthalic anhydride price was 8287.50 yuan / ton, down 2.50% from 8500 yuan / ton on April 10 at the beginning of the week. The price of phthalic anhydride fell this week, the demand for o-xylene weakened, and the downward pressure on o-xylene increased.

Outlook

Analysts of o-xylene data of business society believe that the high price of crude oil has fallen, the price of mixed xylene has fallen sharply, and the cost of o-xylene has decreased; The price demand for phthalic anhydride in the downstream is weak, and the downward pressure on orthobenzene is increasing. On the whole, the cost of ortho benzene decreased and the demand was weak. It is expected that the price of ortho benzene will decline weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride has been consolidated at a high level this week, and the quotation is 5133.33 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 3500 yuan / ton. On April 17, the commodity index of potassium chloride (import) was 135.09, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 39.69% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is about 3500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5000 yuan / ton. The price of 60% Dahong granules in the port has been raised by about 5000-5100 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a high level this week, with a quotation of 9066.67 yuan / ton, up 35.58% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a high level this week, and the quotation was 7050.00 yuan / ton, up 61.14% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has been consolidated at a high level, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride is general.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle and late April, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is relatively tight. As spring ploughing approaches the end, agricultural demand weakens and traders generally take goods. In terms of industry, the downstream market of potassium chloride is consolidated at a high level, the downstream demand is good, and the just need to purchase is mainly. The international price of potash fertilizer is adjusted at a high level, and the domestic potash fertilizer is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly in the short term.

The monitoring shows that the natural rubber commodity index on April 17 was 37.86, the same as yesterday, down 62.14% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 38.78% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the third week of April 2022

The monitoring showed that in the third week of April, the domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in China’s East China market decreased slightly. The mainstream market reported about 12880 yuan / ton on the 11th and 12766 yuan / ton on the 17th, with a weekly decrease of 0.89%; Among them, the highest price of the week was 12880 yuan / ton on the 11th, and the lowest price was 12766 yuan / ton on the weekend. The maximum amplitude of the week was 0.89%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices in the third week of March 2022

Macro analysis: on the macro level, the international oil price rose sharply overnight on the 15th, and the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $106.95/barrel, up US $2.70 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.70/barrel, up US $2.92 or 2.7%. As of Thursday of that week, oil prices had risen for three consecutive times, with a weekly rise of nearly 9%. Friday’s inner market was boosted. The main contract of SC crude oil rose 3.87% to close at 690.2 yuan / barrel; The main reason is that the EU may draft a bill banning the import of Russian oil, and the expectation of oil product shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has surfaced again, with strong support for oil prices. While it is predicted that oil prices will still have upward momentum in the future, China’s demand may continue to slow down and limit the rise of oil prices.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market since April 2022

Industry analysis: supply side: it is reported that the thunderstorm warning in Thailand’s production area will have an impact on the north and northeast. On the whole, the shipment of new rubber in Southeast Asia is good and the price is strong; Among the domestic production areas, the rubber cutting work in Yunnan has increased normally, and the cutting in Hainan production area is expected to be delayed. At present, the global output is still relatively low. Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been greatly affected by public health events, and the transportation of raw materials and finished products has been greatly affected by multi-point divergence. As an important circulation place and an international circulation place of bulk raw materials, Shanghai can hardly ship raw materials from multi District raw materials warehouses at present; The transportation in Shandong and other main production areas is still very affected. It is difficult for raw materials to come in and finished products to go out, the cost is high, the downstream demand is reduced, and the tire enterprises reduce the operating load; Secondly, the demand for tire exports has declined. The current situation in Shanghai has affected the import and export trade of finished products, which is difficult to recover in the short term. Domestic shipments are blocked, and the inventory pressure of finished tire products continues to increase. In terms of inventory: the inventory in Qingdao is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume. The arrival volume of natural rubber decreases, the inventory continues to decline slightly, the rhythm of accumulating inventory slows down, and the inventory elimination of rubber inventory has begun, but the process is slow. Import and export: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in March 2022, down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.

Industry hot spots: 1. According to the passenger car Federation, the retail sales of passenger car market reached 1.579 million in March 2022, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% and a month on month increase of 25.6%. The retail trend in March was quite differentiated. From January to March, a total of 4.915 million vehicles were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 230000 vehicles. The overall trend was lower than expected. The analysis shows that the production and sales of passenger cars in the core areas will be greatly affected in April. Due to the long automobile industry chain and high requirements for coordination, and the shutdown radiation range of core production and logistics base is wider, the production and marketing pressure of automobile market in April may be great.

2. On April 11, the China Automobile Industry Association released monthly data. The data showed that in March this year, the automobile production and sales data were 2.241 million and 2.234 million respectively, down 9.1% and 11.7% year-on-year; Growth of 23.4% and 28.4% month on month. From January to March, the production and sales of automobiles totaled 6.484 million and 6.599 million, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0% and 0.2%. It is noteworthy that the domestic automobile production and sales data of China Automobile Industry Association this month excludes the automobile export part.

3. Data show that from January to March, Vietnam exported 412000 tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, basically the same as last year; A total of 270000 tons were exported to China, up 0.4% from 269000 tons last year.

4. The data show that in the first three months of 2022, the rubber export volume of C ô te d’Ivoire totaled 322544 tons, an increase of 4.2% compared with 309441 tons in the same period of 2021.

5. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in March 2022, down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.

6. On April 13, the European tire and Rubber Manufacturers Association (etrma) released market data that showed that the market sales of replacement tires in Europe increased by 8.8% year-on-year to 69.24 million in the first quarter of 2022. According to the analysis, assuming the tight supply of raw materials and energy caused by the current situation, it may affect the sales in the next few months.

7. According to the Malaysian Bureau of statistics on April 15, the export volume of natural rubber in February 2022 decreased by 12.7% year-on-year to 47682 tons, down 6.8% month on month. Among them, 50.8% are exported to China, and the others are 5.1% in the United States, 3.5% in Germany, 3.4% in Turkey and 2.1% in Brazil.

8. On April 18, the Thai meteorological agency issued the No. 9 Thailand summer storm warning. High pressure or cold air mass has spread to the northeast of Thailand, the eastern region of the northern region and the South China Sea. Due to the unusually hot weather, there will be summer storms in this area, thunderstorms, gales and hail in some areas, as well as heavy rain and lightning.

Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2022

Future forecast: on the macro level, under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the reduction of China’s demand, the international crude oil will be strong, but the range will be limited. The weather in Thailand is abnormal, and the current global production is still relatively low; Public health incidents spread at many points, China’s cargo transportation and downstream demand were affected, the operating rate of tire enterprises slowed down, the stock of spot finished products continued to accumulate, and the rising power of the market continued to be suppressed. Although the synthetic rubber market has declined slightly in recent weeks, the cost pressure of alternative rubber remains high, and the future market shock of natural rubber is weak.