Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business club, the domestic ABS market was weak this week, and the spot prices of some brands were reduced. As of June 24, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 13200 yuan / ton, up or down -11.0% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell this week. The main reason is that the crude oil price fluctuated and the cost support of the petrochemical industry chain weakened, resulting in the decline of styrene. In the early stage, there were a lot of plant maintenance for styrene enterprises on the site, and the port inventory decreased. However, the current downstream demand is weak, the market transaction is weak, and the spot price is weak.

The price of acrylonitrile was stable and weak this week. At present, the load of acrylonitrile in the domestic industry is high. There are some maintenance production lines this week, and the pressure on the supply side has decreased narrowly. Demand tends to be lagging and weak, and the ex factory spot price is weak and stable. There is bullish sentiment in the future market, and the spot price may stabilize.

This week, the domestic butadiene market was low. Affected by the unexpected shutdown of some units in East China, the supply side news boosted the market atmosphere, but the overall demand was weak, which was difficult to provide effective support for the butadiene market. The main production enterprises in Northeast China auctioned for the supply of goods, which led to the continuous decline of prices. The broad decline of the market further affected the downstream inquiry mentality, and the market stopped rising and turned down.

This week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side had a poor trend, and the overall support weakened. In terms of industry load, recently, the operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited change, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. The current industry is in the off-season market, and the mentality of the industry is not strong. The tension in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine is still tense, but affected by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, the crude oil price fluctuates, which is bad for the oil industry chain. The current market is mainly bad for the contraction of downstream demand in the off-season.

Future forecast:

According to the analysts of the business agency, the spot market of ABS fell this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant and demand follow-up is poor. It is expected that the ABS spot market may fall in a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business club, the domestic ABS market was weak this week, and the spot prices of some brands were reduced. As of June 17, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 13650 yuan / ton, up or down +2.25% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and fell this week. The main reason is that the crude oil price fell, which weakened the cost support of downstream chemicals, leading to the decline of styrene. In the early stage, there were a lot of on-site styrene plant maintenance and the port inventory decreased, but the current downstream demand is weak, the market transaction is weak, and the spot price is weak.

The price of acrylonitrile continued to weaken this week, the maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage was completed, the domestic industry load was high, the supply pressure was high, and the spot price continued to drag. On the demand side, it tends to be lagging and weak. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the ex factory spot price is under multiple pressures. In the future, there is an expectation of supply reduction, and the decline of spot price is limited.

The domestic butadiene market fell significantly this week, mainly due to the prominent contradiction between supply and demand: some units in East China were restarted, and the supply side was significantly supplemented. But at the same time, the downstream demand was relatively weak, and the synthetic rubber market fell, dragging down the market inquiry atmosphere. Under the drag of poor transaction, the butadiene market fell rapidly.

This week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side had a poor trend, and the overall support weakened. In terms of industry load, recently, the operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited change, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. Health incidents in East China have eased, and it will take some time for the market to fully recover. The market of the industry in the off-season gradually stands, and the mentality of the industry is not strong. The tension in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine remained, but affected by the Federal Reserve, crude oil fell at a high level, which was bad for the petrochemical industry chain. The current market is mainly bad for the contraction of downstream demand in the off-season.

Future forecast:

According to the analysts of the business agency, the ABS spot market was weak and stable this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant and demand follow-up is poor. It is expected that the ABS spot market may fall in a narrow range in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of the business society, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 4683 yuan / ton on June 13, and 4683 yuan / ton on June 17. The price of monoammonium phosphate was stable this week.

According to the data in the bulk list of business society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 4200 yuan / ton on June 13, and 4333 yuan / ton on June 17. The price of diammonium phosphate rose by 3.17% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of raw phosphate rock continued to rise this week, and the cost support was favorable. The price of raw sulfur and synthetic ammonia fell. The supply of Monoammonium is tight, some enterprises’ quotation is suspended, and a small number of orders are received. The downstream compound fertilizer is purchased on demand, and the enthusiasm is not high. This week, the factory price of 55 powdered ammonium in Henan was about 4800 yuan / ton, that in Anhui was about 4700 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan was about 4550 yuan / ton, and that in 58 was about 4750 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

This week, the supply of raw phosphate rock is in short supply, the price continues to run at a high level, and diammonium phosphate continues to rise. At present, the domestic market of diammonium is short of spot, the downstream procurement is cautious, the demand is weakened, and the focus is shifted to the export market. At present, most manufacturers have suspended their quotation, restricted the receipt of orders, mainly issued early-stage orders, and dealers are cautious to wait and see. This week, the market price of 64% diammonium in Yunnan was about 4600 yuan / ton, and the market price of 57% diammonium in Guizhou was about 4380 yuan / ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

Raw phosphate rock market. This week, the domestic phosphorus ore market continued to hit a high level, the supply of phosphorus ore in the site continued to be tight, and the market focus continued to rise. Some mining enterprises in Guizhou resumed mining, and only a small amount of inventory was shipped out. The tight situation of spot circulation of high-end phosphorus ore in the market has not improved much. In Guizhou, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 920-950 yuan / ton. At present, most of the phosphate rocks of large mining enterprises in Guizhou and Hubei are for their own use after production, and there is no external sales source, and most of the enterprises that can supply them have a strong reluctance to sell, so they receive orders in advance and give priority to single discussion.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the ammonium phosphate analyst of the business society, the supply of raw phosphate rock is still tight, the raw sulfur has started to callback, and the cost support is still on. Low downstream demand and limited market transactions. It is expected that the high price of ammonium phosphate will be mainly adjusted and operated in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 20, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9100 yuan / ton, which was 733 yuan / ton lower than that on June 15, a decrease of 7.46%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province is generally weak and runs downward in the recent (6.15-6.21). On the 16th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong decreased slightly by 100 yuan / ton. Among them, the price of n-butanol in North China of Shandong Wanhua chemical was 9800 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day. Subsequently, the overall n-butanol market was weak and mainly operated, and the information on the supply and demand side was relatively calm. 20. On the 21st, affected by the general start-up in the downstream and the poor overall demand performance, the n-butanol plant in Shandong Province reduced the price of n-butanol by 500-800 yuan / ton. As of the 21st, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9000-9300 yuan / ton, with a decline of more than 7% in the sixth day. On the 21st, the ex factory price of Shandong Luxi Chemical n-butanol was around 9000 yuan / ton, and decreased by 800 yuan / ton in two days. The ex factory price of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol was 9000 yuan / ton, and decreased by 800 yuan / ton in one day. At present, the overall downstream demand is general, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is relatively light.

In terms of upstream propylene, recently (June 15-June 21) the domestic propylene market in Shandong Province has been running down as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, on June 20, the reference price of propylene was 7958.25 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.12% compared with June 15 (7966.6 yuan / ton).

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand for n-butanol cautiously affects the mentality of the operators. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is weak, mainly for consolidation and operation. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

The price of DBP fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the business club, the DBP price fell this week, and the overall DBP market fell. As of June 20, the price of DBP was 10166.67 yuan / ton, down 2.09% from 10383.33 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. The raw material cost of DBP fell this week, and the plasticizer market fell.

The price of normal butanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the high price of n-butanol fell this week, and the market of n-butanol fell. On June 20, the price of n-butanol was 9633.33 yuan / ton, down 2.03% from 9833.33 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. This week, the transaction enthusiasm of n-butanol decreased, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell slightly, the cost of DBP decreased, the rising momentum of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure was great.

The price of phthalic anhydride stopped rising and stabilized this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the phthalic anhydride market stopped rising and stabilized this week. As of June 19, the phthalic anhydride price was 8675 yuan / ton, up 2.06% from the phthalic anhydride price of 8500 yuan / ton on June 12 last week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply, but the demand for phthalic anhydride was poor, and the phthalic anhydride market stabilized after rising; DBP raw material costs tend to stabilize, and DBP cost support weakens.

Aftermarket expectation

According to the DBP data analyst of business agency, in terms of raw materials, the price of butanol fell violently this week, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized after rising, and the overall cost of plasticizer DBP decreased slightly. In the future, the recovery of DBP demand is slow, the price of DBP raw materials fell, the cost of DBP fell, the pressure on DBP fell, and the upward momentum weakened. It is expected that the price of DBP will fall slightly in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business club, the PP market fell this week, and the spot price of the wire drawing brand decreased overall. As of June 17, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8725 yuan / ton, up or down -1.13% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose steadily this week. Propylene supply decreased due to the overhaul of a plant in Shandong, boosting market confidence. Downstream market demand is mainly just demand, fast in and fast out, and the overall market is still in a situation of supply exceeding demand. It is expected that the propylene market may decline in the near future.

Propylene prices rose steadily, crude oil fell at a high level due to the Fed’s interest rate hike, and PP cost side support was acceptable this week. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises fell due to the maintenance of some devices, and the supply decreased, but the inventory of enterprises and midstream increased compared with the previous period. On the demand side, the downstream factories follow up the purchase slowly, have strong resistance to the high price supply, and the market trading is light. Traders’ shipments follow the market, the operating rate of terminal enterprises is adjusted in a narrow range, and the main support in the market comes from the upstream support. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will continue to be weak.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of June 17, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell as a whole. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic producers and traders was about 8766.67 yuan / ton, up or down -1.31% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of +1.94%. This week, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials started their business in a generally horizontal way. The products of the end enterprises maintained the off-season mode and took goods to maintain production. In terms of medical fiber products, cooling is required, and the rigid support is weakened. The supply side is abundant and the market momentum is reduced. It is expected that the fiber material will remain weak in the off-season market in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market fell this week. As of June 17, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business club was about 9650 yuan / ton, up or down -1.19% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in China has gradually decreased, and the epidemic prevention pressure has eased. At the same time, medical meltblown cloth materials have entered the off-season of consumption, and the demand has decreased. The supply of melt blown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. Together with the shipping resistance, it puts pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may remain weak.

Aftermarket forecast

According to PP analysts of business agency, the domestic polypropylene market fell this week. Although the raw material propylene and international crude oil market fell, the main support in the market is still the cost side. The demand of terminal enterprises develops slowly, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the recent PP market may continue the weak adjustment market.

On June 15, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $115.31/barrel, down US $3.62 or 3.04%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $118.51/barrel, down US $2.66 or 2.20%. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike of 75 basis points higher than expected, which was the largest interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the past 30 years. The market was disturbed by macro bad news, and the expectations of demand setback put pressure on oil prices. Both WTI and Brent of international crude oil futures fell to a two-week low.

On Friday, the data released by the US Department of labor showed that the US consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.0% month on month and 8.6% year on year in May, hitting a new high in 40 years. The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike brought the oil market back from its high point, and the international oil price returned to below $120. However, as the fundamentals of supply and demand have not changed, tight supply is expected to make the oil price relatively strong.

On Wednesday, the decline in oil prices widened, mainly due to the disturbance of the news that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates more than expected. On June 15 local time, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates by 75 basis points to curb soaring inflation. This is also the largest rate hike by the Federal Reserve since 1994. The interest rate hike may have a negative impact on the economy. While curbing inflation, it may hurt demand, so it will bring upward resistance to the rising oil price.

Can oil prices return to the upward channel in the future?

On the supply side, under the background of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, European and American oil sanctions against Russia will continue to reduce its supply. At present, the global market has reduced the supply of crude oil by about 2million barrels per day. And in the short term, the supplier is unable to make up for this loss. Although OPEC, the oil producing country, has increased its growth rate from 400000 barrels per day to 650000 barrels per day, and there are rumors of reserve release in the market, it is a drop in the bucket either from the poor residual production capacity of OPEC or from the short-term behavior of reserve release. Therefore, the medium and long-term supply pressure is still on, which still plays a strong supporting role in oil prices.

On the demand side, in the medium term, the peak driving season in summer in Europe and the United States will still bring a stable increase to the oil market. In addition, the epidemic situation in Asia has eased, and the relaxation of restrictive measures will also stimulate some demand. On the whole, short-term demand is still strong, which will also be good for oil prices, and the oil market will still return to the upward channel. In the medium and long term, under the background of high inflation in the United States, the Fed’s interest rate hike may further hurt demand. This will also bring uncertainty to the market. On the whole, oil prices are still strong in the short term. In the medium term, it may be affected by the global high inflation and the increased expectation of interest rate hike, or further hurt demand; In addition, in the long run, with the enhanced substitution of new energy for traditional fossil energy, the oil market is far from or under pressure.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda was consolidated. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1246 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1250 yuan / ton, up 0.32% and 139.23% compared with the same period last year. On June 9, the commodity index of caustic soda was 179.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.25% from the highest point of 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 176.24% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business agency, the domestic caustic soda price was consolidated this week. The mainstream price of caustic soda in Shandong is about 1150-1300 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1200-1400 yuan / ton. The overall trading of the market has not changed much, and the overall trading has maintained the previous level. There is no inventory pressure for caustic soda enterprises, but alumina manufacturers mostly purchase on demand, so the wait-and-see mood should linger on the site, and the market of liquid caustic soda is stable and small.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 22nd week of 2022 (5.30-6.3), there were 0 rising commodities, 1 falling commodities and 4 rising commodities. The main commodities falling were caustic soda (-0.32%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.06%.

Analysts of the business community believe that recently, the price of caustic soda has been operating steadily and dynamically, the enterprise inventory is not high, and the downstream oxidation is mainly purchased on demand. The two sides play a game between supply and demand. It is comprehensively estimated that the subsequent consolidation of the market of caustic soda will be mainly based on the downstream market demand.

This week (6.6-10), the domestic liquid ammonia market continued to fall. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and Hubei have declined to varying degrees. The cumulative weekly decline is 100-200 yuan / ton. The market supply has changed and the ammonia supply has increased. However, the demand for chemical fertilizer in the downstream is weak, and the resistance to high prices has further suppressed some rigid demand. Lower downstream prices, terminal prices have also been lower. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of May 20, the current weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 0.63%, and the weekend mainstream quotation range is 4900-5150 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many domestic places increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the overall supply pressure increased. Previously, due to the high price of urea in the downstream, the majority of urea was transferred to the downstream, and the amount of ammonia decreased. However, the ammonia price has rebounded recently, and the amount of ammonia released by enterprises has increased significantly. Therefore, the overall supply of liquid ammonia surged, and the short-term surge in supply led to partial excess.

Affected by the regulation policies, the upstream coal prices maintain the previous level. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. The price of natural gas also declined, easing the cost pressure of gas head enterprises. According to the monitoring of the business agency, LNG fell by 2.20% this week.

Demand side

From the terminal point of view, the downstream demand for liquid ammonia remained rigid and the price of urea remained stable at a high level. The price rebounded slightly, with an increase of 1.5%. The agricultural demand increases, and the industrial demand is dominated by the rigid demand. In the northern wheat harvest area, the agricultural demand is appropriately followed up, and some southern areas purchase on demand. The enterprises of compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants started their business in general, mainly just needed to purchase. The price of melamine fell slightly, and their enthusiasm for urea purchasing weakened. From the perspective of supply, the daily output of urea is about 170000 tons, which is at a high level, but the factory inventory and social inventory are at a low level, and the supply of goods in some regions is tight.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia has dropped significantly, deeper than that of urea, and the price difference between them has widened. However, it is still at a reasonable level.

According to the above figure, the profit of liquid ammonia industrial chain continues to improve, the price of natural gas in the upstream of gas head drops, and the price of coal remains weak due to the impact of policies, which is conducive to easing the pressure on downstream costs. In the middle and lower reaches, the majority of the market also rose, and the profits of enterprises increased. The profits of liquid ammonia, urea and compound fertilizer increased significantly compared with the previous period.

Aftermarket forecast

The business agency believes that at present, the domestic liquid ammonia market price continues to loosen, and the inventory pressure of enterprises is obvious. As the agricultural demand enters the off-season, the liquid ammonia may have a downward risk.

The price of DBP fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the business club, the DBP price fell this week, and the overall DBP market fell. As of June 13, the price of DBP was 10250.00 yuan / ton, down 2.54% from 10516.67 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week. The raw material cost of DBP fell this week, and the plasticizer market fell.

The price of normal butanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of n-butanol first rose and then fell this week, and the market of n-butanol fell. On June 13, the price of n-butanol was 9833.33 yuan / ton, down 2.32% from 10066.67 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week. This week, the transaction volume of n-butanol decreased, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell violently, the cost of DBP decreased, the upward momentum of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. The price of n-butanol fell violently, and the upward momentum of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride rose violently this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of phthalic anhydride rose violently this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride rose. As of June 6, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8650 yuan / ton, up 4.22% from 8300 yuan / ton on June 6. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride raw material o-xylene rose sharply, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost of DBP raw materials rose, and the cost support of DBP increased.

Aftermarket expectation

According to the DBP data analyst of business agency, in terms of raw materials, the price of butanol fell this week, the price of phthalic anhydride rose this week, and the overall cost of plasticizer DBP fell. In the future, DBP demand recovers slowly