From August 12 to August 19, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene in the week decreased slightly. It was 6997 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 6583 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a weekly drop of 5.92%.

In terms of crude oil, at the beginning of this week, the oil price fell for three consecutive days due to the increasing concern of the market about the global economic outlook. However, the data released by the EIA on Wednesday showed that the total inventory of crude oil and gasoline in the United States fell more than expected, the fear of slowing demand eased, and the oil price rebounded. As of August 19, Brent’s price in this week fell by $1.43/barrel or 1.46% compared with last week; WTI fell by US $1.32/barrel, or 1.43%.

According to the crude oil analysts of business news, in the short term, the oil price may also be disturbed by unexpected factors in addition to being affected by the fundamentals. The hurricane climate in North America is approaching. According to the judgment of previous years, it may damage the refinery facilities along the Gulf of Mexico, which may help the oil price rebound. In addition, in the medium term, it may be affected by the soaring natural gas price in Europe, which will drive the oil price higher. In the long run, the risk of economic recession and epidemic situation are still the biggest constraints on oil prices, and the risk of far-end oil prices is high.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

August 4, 8450, – 200

August 5, 8150, – 300

August 11, 7950, – 200

August 16, 7750, – 200

August 18, 7500, – 250

As for the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene, on August 18, 2022, the listed price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7650 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quoted 7503 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan / ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has dropped continuously since July.

This week, the crude oil trend is unstable, the cost support is weak, and the guidance to the industrial chain is not obvious. In terms of supply, the shutdown and maintenance devices in the early stage were restarted in succession, resulting in an increase in domestic pure benzene supply. In terms of port cargo sources, recently imported ships have been concentrated in the port. The inventory of East China port has increased by 6700 tons to 37700 tons compared with last week. The accumulated inventory of the port is obvious, and the overall supply side is mainly negative. Demand: most of the downstream products suffered losses this week. There are many shutdown and load reduction devices, and the demand for pure benzene is insufficient. In terms of cost, the bidding price of crude benzene dropped significantly this week, and with the recent increase in the operating rate of coking enterprises, the supply of crude benzene increased compared with the previous period. Generally speaking, in the future market, the business community believes that although pure benzene has been falling continuously and the purchasing sentiment in the downstream has improved, most products are still at a loss, and it is difficult to greatly increase the demand for pure benzene in the short term. The market is waiting for the downstream to make up for the bargain. In terms of devices, the 140000 T / a pure benzene capacity of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II and the 1.27 million T / a pure benzene capacity of Shenghong refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. will be put into production. In the later stage, there are still 330000 T / a capacity of Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., 300000 t / a capacity of Shandong Fuhai Hualian phase II and 800000 T / a capacity of Guangdong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. planned to be put into production. The pressure of supply and demand is prominent, the market of pure benzene is very bad, and the short-term price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

The crude benzene market continued to decline this week. The mainstream price in Shandong was 6520-6525 yuan / ton, down 560 yuan / ton from last week. In terms of operating rate, this week’s coking enterprises were affected by the two rounds of coke increase. The operating rate recovered significantly compared with the previous period, and the supply of crude benzene also increased. With the increase of crude benzene supply, the market was once again negative. Therefore, the bidding price was significantly lowered this week. It is expected that in the future, under the influence of the obvious increase in supply and a certain reduction in downstream demand, the crude benzene market is expected to operate under pressure, and there is a certain space for decline.

This week, the price of o-benzene is temporarily stable

It can be seen from the price trend chart of ortho xylene in the business community that the market of ortho xylene is temporarily stable this week, while the price of ortho xylene in the external market is fluctuating and rising, and the price of domestic ortho xylene is temporarily stable. As of August 23, the price of o-benzene was 8000 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of o-benzene on August 15 at the beginning of last week. On August 22, the ox commodity index was 68.29, which was the same as yesterday, down 31.71% from the highest point 100.00 in the cycle (2013-03-07), and up 110.51% from the lowest point 32.44 on April 13, 2020. (Note: the period refers to February 1, 2013 to now).

Tight supply of o-benzene outer disk

This week, the external price of o-xylene stopped falling, and the external price of o-xylene in Europe and Asia increased slightly. Since the second quarter, the import volume of o-xylene has been almost zero, and recently the export window of o-xylene has been opened, the port inventory of o-xylene has dropped sharply, the external supply of o-xylene is tight, and the external price of o-xylene has increased, which has a certain supporting effect on the price rise of domestic o-xylene.

This week, the price of mixed xylene is temporarily stable

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in the business community, the price of mixed xylene is strong and stable for the time being this week. As of August 23, the price of mixed xylene was 7960 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of mixed xylene on August 15 at the beginning of the week; The price of mixed xylene increased by 0.13% compared with 7950 yuan / ton on August 14 last weekend. This week, the price of mixed xylene is strong and stable, the cost of o-xylene is stable, and the downward pressure of o-xylene is weakened.

This week, the downstream phthalic anhydride price fluctuated and rose

It can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in the business community that the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride was strongly adjusted. As of August 23, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8100 yuan / ton, up by 0.47% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride increased, the demand for o-xylene recovered, and the driving force for the increase of o-xylene increased.

Future outlook

According to the data analysis of ortho xylene of business agency, the price of ortho xylene has risen this week, and the price of ortho xylene has risen, adding to the warming of the phthalic anhydride market, the ortho xylene has been actively picked up, the inventory of ortho xylene in the port has decreased, and the driving force for the rise of ortho xylene has increased. In the future, the external supply is tight and the market of phthalic anhydride is warming. In the future, the demand for ortho xylene is warming and the supply is tight. It is expected that the price of ortho xylene will rise slightly in the future.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, and the average market price is 173.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 34.18%. On August 21, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 45.61, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.92% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (October 26, 2021), and up 153.67% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is low and the cost support is insufficient. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride decreased slightly, from 2120.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2095.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.18%, a year-on-year increase of 20.71% over the same period of last year; The market price of ammonium chloride decreased slightly, from 1210.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 1145.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 5.37%. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weakened.

Future forecast

In late August, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fall in a narrow range. The recent market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is low, and the cost support is insufficient. The market prices of polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride in the downstream have dropped slightly, and the downstream purchasing intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has suffered a small shock and decline in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community’s bulk list, the bromine price is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 57600 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 55900 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 2.95% and a year-on-year increase of 30.76%. On August 18, the bromine commodity index was 196.84, down 1.41 points from yesterday, down 19.72% from the highest point 245.18 (October 27, 2021) in the cycle, and up 234.08% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the mainstream price of bromine in Shandong enterprises is about 55000-56000 yuan / ton, and the price of bromine is weak this week. However, the overall procurement of downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries is general recently, the market transaction is light, and the shipment of bromine enterprises is under pressure. The attitude of the operators is pessimistic, and the atmosphere in the venue is general.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price is temporarily stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend is 1153.33 yuan / ton, down 34.34% year-on-year. The domestic sulfur market is mainly stable, and the price trend is stable but small. The sulfur sales of refineries in Shandong Province are acceptable. The manufacturers are expected to wait and see the sulfur market according to their own inventory and shipment.

Business analysts believe that the price of bromine is in a weak position in the near future. Although the bromine enterprises intend to stabilize the price, the demand of the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine is relatively weak in the near future. The supply and demand of both parties are in a game, and the price is down. It is expected that the short-term price of bromine will be in a weak position. See the downstream market demand for details.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12000 yuan / ton on August 8, and the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 11433 yuan / ton on August 14. The price of caprolactam fell by 4.72% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam continued to fall this week. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to drop, and the cost support of caprolactam weakened. The downstream demand is poor, and caprolactam is mainly purchased on demand. Most of the caprolactam enterprises suffered losses and the operating rate decreased. As of August 14, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 13200 yuan / ton, and the acceptance was self drawn.

Raw material pure benzene continued to decline this week. On the cost side, crude oil rose as a whole this week, which has a certain support for pure benzene. On the supply side, the shutdown and maintenance devices in the early stage are restarted in succession, and the market supply is expected to increase in the later stage. The import cargo increased, and the inventory of pure benzene in East China port this week increased by 7000 tons to 31000 tons compared with last week. On the demand side, most of the downstream are in deficit, the shutdown of the unit has decreased significantly, the operating rate has decreased as a whole, and the demand for pure benzene has weakened. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton to 7950 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the caprolactam analysts of business society, the current caprolactam market is dominated by bad news and the price continues to decline. Both the cost side and the demand side are depressed, and the declining market continues. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will continue to decline in the short term.

Last week (August 8-14), the raw material cost was low, the downstream demand continued to be weak, and the price of nylon filament fell sharply. The supporting role of the cost side continues to weaken. The supply of nylon fiber manufacturers is stable, but there is still resistance to shipment. It is difficult to trade at high prices in the market. The demand of the downstream end market is flat, and the overall market production and sales are flat.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend of nylon POY (86d / 24F)

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of nylon filament fell sharply last week (August 8-14). As of August 14, the price of domestic nylon POY (superior product; 86d / 24F) was 15775 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 825 yuan / ton and a weekly drop of 4.95%. Nylon DTY (premium product; 70D / 24F) was quoted at 18200 yuan / ton, down 900 yuan / ton this week, down 4.71% this week. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40d / 12F) is 18825 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 850 yuan / ton and a weekly drop of 4.32%.

Upstream raw material Market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Cost side: last week (August 8-14), the market price of raw material caprolactam continued to fall, and the spot price was running at a low level. The price fell from 12000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11433 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly drop of 4.72%. The terminal demand is in the low season. Most of the caprolactam enterprises suffered losses, the operating rate declined, the market was dominated by bad news, the price continued to decline, the cost side and the demand side were both depressed, and the decline continued. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will continue to decline in the short term.

Supply and demand: since the end of June, the terminal demand has not improved at present. The terminal customers just need to follow up, and the downstream weaving factories are not active in purchasing. Some customers are more focused on sales and production, and mainly consume raw material inventory in the short term; The on-site supply of goods remains sufficient. Although some manufacturers have production reduction expectations, the on-site supply of goods remains sufficient.

In general, the nylon market trend is weak and downward, the upstream raw material market is expected to decline in a narrow range, the supporting role of the cost side is weakened, the supply in the field remains stable, the downstream end market is affected by the atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm for taking goods is not high, and the actual trading atmosphere in the field is flat.

Future forecast

Nylon filament has a weak supporting role on the cost side, sufficient supply of goods, and the demand side continues to be weak. There is not too much positive feedback at the terminal, and the market is mainly negative. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market will continue to be weak in the later period, and the price will continue to fluctuate and decline in the short term.

Recent trend of urea price

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price dropped slightly this week. The urea price dropped from 2426.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2348.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.22%, a year-on-year decrease of 16.14%. On August 14, the urea commodity index was 109.21, which was the same as yesterday, down 28.31% from the highest point 152.33 in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 96.42% from the lowest point 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now).

General cost support, insufficient downstream demand and low urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week.

According to the data of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream market of urea has increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas has increased slightly, from 6466.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7026.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 8.66%, a year-on-year increase of 31.16% over the same period of last year; Anthracite prices are temporarily stable. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was adjusted at a low level, and the price was 7233.33 yuan / ton.

From the demand side, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is insufficient. Agricultural demand has basically ended. The rubber plate factory is generally started and mainly needs to purchase. Compound fertilizer enterprises continued to wait and see, and began to purchase one after another at the weekend. The price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. From the perspective of supply: some manufacturers have overhauled, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Urea price may rise slightly

In the middle and late August, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, mainly through consolidation. The urea analyst of business community believes that the upstream cost of urea is generally supported. The agricultural demand in the downstream is weakened, the industrial demand is just increased, and the daily output of urea is at a low level. Recent urea or narrow range fluctuation rise is the main trend.

This week, the zinc price fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 15, the zinc price was 24984 yuan / ton, up 1.98% from 24500 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. This week, the zinc price rose first and then fell. The fear of supply shortage caused the zinc price to rise sharply. The macroeconomic environment affected the poor demand and the zinc price fell rapidly.

High energy prices cause supply shortage concerns

According to the latest data released by Glencore, the company produced 350900 tons of zinc ingots in the first half of this year, a decrease of 12% – 47500 tons compared with the first half of 2021. Glencore has warned that the energy crisis in Europe has posed a substantial threat to supply, and the company has suspended the operation of a zinc smelter in Europe. At the same time, the company’s other smelters in the region are hardly profitable. Although the demand for industrial metals is facing increasing risks, the European power crisis has seriously affected the supply prospects. After Glencore’s financial report was released overnight, the zinc price of LME soared by 8.5%, the largest intraday increase since March. The fear of supply shortage in zinc market has intensified, which has stimulated the sharp rise of zinc price and increased the driving force of zinc market.

The macro economy is weak and the demand of zinc market is declining

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July, the national real estate development investment was 7946.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. From January to July, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8591.94 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. The newly started area of houses was 760.67 million square meters, down 36.1%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 559.19 million square meters, down 36.8%. The completed area of houses was 320.28 million square meters, down 23.3%. The real estate market is in full decline, the macroeconomic environment is weak, the demand of zinc market is expected to decline, and the rise of zinc market is not supported enough.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the continuous energy crisis in Europe and the growing concern about the supply shortage in the international zinc market have played a certain role in supporting the rise of zinc price. However, the domestic demand for zinc has dropped significantly. Although the national infrastructure stimulus policies have been issued one after another, the lag of the policy impact and the expected impact of insufficient demand have limited room for zinc price rise in the future. It is expected that the high zinc price in the future will be adjusted in a wide range.

Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the domestic vitamin C price is temporarily stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C is stable at 31 yuan / kg, without any rise or fall.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic vitamin C market is running smoothly this week, and the current mainstream price of feed grade is 25-28 yuan / kg. In the peak season of enterprise maintenance, the market supply was tightened and the price began to firm.

Upstream: corn prices fluctuated and fell. It is expected that during the first half of August, the corn price in the main production areas will mainly keep a stable trend of grinding the bottom, and the local market will have a bullish trend, but most regions will maintain a generally stable trend. In the short term, the market still lacks the foundation to support the sharp rise and fall of the market.

This week, the price of vitamin a stopped falling and stabilized. The mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A is 120-130 yuan / ton, and the European market price is 42-45 euros / kg. As the domestic mainstream factories are undergoing maintenance, the market supply is reduced, and there is a strong atmosphere of price support in the market. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

The price of vitamin E dropped slightly this week. The weekly average price of feed grade vitamin E was stable at 83.33 yuan / kg, and the weekend average price was 83 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.4%. The European market price this week was 9.0-9.4 euros / kg, down from last week. The off-season is light, and the enterprise mainly completes orders from old customers, and the price is flexibly adjusted.

Future forecast

According to the vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of the business community, the overall bottom of the vitamin market has been consolidated, and individual varieties have started to show an upward trend. We should pay close attention to market information and enterprise production and sales dynamics.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic adipic acid continued to decline this week (8.1-5), with a decline of 1.03% this week. The mainstream quotation in East China market fell by 100-200 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the market price range of adipic acid was 9500-9700 yuan / ton. On the one hand, crude oil fluctuates, the upward momentum is weak, pure benzene continues to fall, cyclohexanone, cyclohexane and other products decline deeper, and the negative impact on the cost side is intensified. In addition, the manufacturer has high inventory pressure, constantly reducing load to balance negative profit, and weak market demand.

From the perspective of market supply, the adipic acid operation rate this week slightly decreased compared with the previous week, and is currently maintained at about 50%. At present, there is no information guidance on the supply side. The inventory pressure of the manufacturer is still prominent. The weak market demand leads to a decline in supply and the profit of the manufacturer is inverted.

Trend of adipic acid industry chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is still relatively weak this week. The upstream products pure benzene, cyclohexanone and cyclohexane all dropped to varying degrees, adipic acid remained weak, the trading center shifted significantly downward, and the manufacturer’s profits were inverted, maintaining a negative profit range. In addition, the downstream PA66 slightly stopped falling this week, but did not rebound, and the terminal remained at a weak level.

Market trend of adipic acid upstream pure benzene

Market trend of cyclohexanone in adipic acid upstream

The support of upstream raw materials is insufficient, and the decline of pure benzene price is deepened this week. According to the monitoring of business agency, the weekly increase of pure benzene is 3.04%. The main factory of pure benzene has lowered the ex factory price for three consecutive times, with a cumulative range of 700 yuan / ton. The inventory of pure benzene in East China decreased, and the overall supply of the spot market decreased. In addition, the inventory of East China port fell, and the spot quantity was small. The good supply side can not offset the bad demand brought by the slowdown. The prices of cyclohexanone and cyclohexane also dropped, at -0.99% and -0.36% respectively. It shows that the upstream cost still forms a negative pressure on adipic acid.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: the downstream performance of adipic acid is sluggish. The downstream purchase volume decreases. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the PA66 in the lower reaches of adipic acid increased or decreased by 0% in the week. This week, the load level of domestic PA66 industry continued to fall in a narrow range, but the spot supply in the market is still abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, the current end-user enterprises tend to follow up with goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories is shrinking, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the shipping resistance of merchants is large. The transaction in the market is declining, and the seller is not in a good mood, and gradually tries to reduce the yield order. In short, the weak downstream demand is the fundamental reason that restricts the rebound of adipic acid.

In the later stage, the Business Association believes that the decline of crude oil price will bring bad news to the chemical market, and the continuous decline of pure benzene price will suppress the downstream adipic acid. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is no favorable guidance on the supply side, and the order follow-up on the demand side is slow. Therefore, it is expected that the adipic acid market will still operate weakly.