1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the price of mixed xylene rose rapidly after the festival, and began to weaken continuously in the last ten days. The price of mixed xylene was 8020 yuan/ton on October 1 and 8230 yuan/ton on October 28, up 2.62% from the beginning of the month and 20.5% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

During the National Day, supported by the wide rise of crude oil, domestic mixed xylene rose along with it. Due to the weak performance of the terminal gasoline market affected by the epidemic situation, the price has fallen continuously. In addition, the downstream chemical products just need to follow up, and the demand side of mixed xylene performs poorly. The price has fallen since the middle of this month. The overall supply of mixed xylene market is tight, the factory inventory pressure is small, supporting the price, and the decline is limited.

In terms of crude oil, due to the OPEC+meeting’s decision to significantly reduce production from November, crude oil rose broadly during the National Day holiday. However, in the context of multi country interest rate hikes, economic data is weak, and oil prices continue to play a game around demand concerns and supply shortages. As of October 28, Brent rose by 7.81 dollars/barrel, or 8.88%; WTI rose by 8.41 dollars/barrel, or 10.58%.

In terms of external market, the price of Asian mixed xylene in external market rose slightly this month. On October 28, South Korea imported mixed xylene at a price of US $985/ton, up by US $12.5/ton month on month, or 1.29%.

In terms of PX market, domestic PX prices stabilized after rising this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 9000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than the beginning of the month, and 27.4% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of OX market, OX in East China stabilized after rising this month, with the price at the beginning of the month at 9000 yuan/ton and at the end of the month at 9600 yuan/ton, 6.67% higher than the beginning of the month and 39.13% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong Province fell continuously this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8693 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8329 yuan/ton, down 4.19% from the beginning of the month and 3.88% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the market is worried about the economic and demand prospects under the background of multi country interest rate increases; However, OPEC+plans to reduce production, and the geopolitical situation still worries about the tension of energy supply. It is expected that the international oil price will continue to play a long short game with a volatile trend. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

In November, the demand side of mixed xylene may continue to weaken, and the price may continue to weaken. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene prices.

After the National Day holiday, the MTBE market rose by a narrow margin. However, with the low price shock of crude oil and the sluggish demand for gasoline and diesel, the MTBE market turned upside down and went down unilaterally. By the end of the month, although there was a slight recovery, the overall market was still lower. According to the data of the business community, the MTBE price at the beginning of the month was 7250 yuan/ton, and the MTBE market price at the end of the month was 6940 yuan/ton. The price fell 4.28% within the month, with the maximum amplitude of 7.52%, down 5.35% year on year.

At the beginning of this month, crude oil once again opened a downward channel, the market became pessimistic again, the downstream demand gradually weakened, and with some inventories accumulated during the festival, businesses were willing to destock, and the MTBE market price once again entered a downward adjustment

In the middle of this month, the trend of international oil prices continued to decline, the gasoline market also continued to fall, and the downstream demand for raw materials weakened. In addition, the market supply is relatively abundant, and the market supply exceeds the demand. The sales of merchants are blocked, and the domestic MTBE market continues to decline.

At the end of this month, the MTBE market continued to decline by about 50-100 yuan/ton. The low level of international oil prices shocks the domestic market mentality.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on October 27, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market had risen by 44 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 910.99-912.99 dollars/ton. The closing price of European MTBE market decreased by 12.75 dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at 1102.49-1102.99 dollars/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market rose by 22.69 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf price closed at 1221.55-1221.9 US dollars/ton (344.10-344.20 US cents/gallon).

Region/. country., closing price/. rise and fall

Asia/. FOB Singapore/. 910.99-912.99 USD/ton/. 44 USD/ton

Europe/./ FOB ARA/. 1102.49-1102.99 USD/ton/. -12.75 yuan/ton

US/. FOB Gulf/. 1221.55-1221.9 US dollars/ton/. 22.69 US dollars/ton

Recently, the price has rebounded slightly after falling to a low level, and the market demand has increased, but there will be no significant change. MTBE analysts from the business agency believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market situation may be low.

In October, the market of cis polybutadiene rubber was weak and declined. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of cis polybutadiene rubber was 12210 yuan/ton as of October 30, down 6.22% from 13020 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Although the downstream commencement in Jinjiu peak season is not as good as that in previous years, it has slightly increased compared with the early stage, which has a certain need for support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In addition, at the beginning of the month, the raw material price rose significantly, which promoted the rise of cis polybutadiene rubber on the cost side; In the middle of the month, some enterprises started to shut down their Shunding plants and reduce the load, reducing the pressure on the supply side of Shunding, and supporting the Shunding market; At the end of the month, the price of raw materials fell sharply, and the rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was limited by the drag of cost.

Supply side: In October, the construction of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was still at a high level, and the pressure on the supply side of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber remained unchanged. Under the pressure of supply side, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is weak.

Cost: butadiene prices fell sharply in October, and the cost was not supported by cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 31, the price of butadiene was 7603 yuan/ton, down 8.43% from 8303 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In October, the natural rubber market went down all the way, and the substitution advantage of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was no longer, which had a negative impact on cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. As of October 31, the price was 11170 yuan/ton, down 9.26% from 12310 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The commencement of tires in major downstream consumer industries in October was slightly lower than that in September. According to the business community, in mid October, the commencement of all steel tires in Shandong was around 5.2%, and the commencement of semi steel tires was 6.5% (the commencement load in September was 5.9%, and 6.3% respectively), which had weak support for styrene butadiene rubber.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber remained loose in October, and the pressure on cis polybutadiene rubber continued to increase in the later period. In addition, the cost side was lower, and the demand side was weak. It is expected that cis polybutadiene rubber will continue to decline in November.

Recent domestic sulphuric acid price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose sharply in October. The market price of sulfuric acid rose from 296.00 yuan/ton on October 1 to 418.00 yuan/ton on October 28, an increase of 41.22%. The price at the end of the month fell 52.50% year-on-year.

On October 27, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 126.36, up 0.56 points from yesterday, down 21.89% from the peak of 161.78 points (2022-03-20) in the cycle, and up 244.77% from the lowest point of 36.65 points on June 23, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Weakened upstream support and better downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulphuric acid manufacturers rose and fell with each other this month, and the manufacturer’s inventory was small.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose first and then fell this month. The sulfur price fell from 1486.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1350.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 9.19%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 36.42% year on year. The upstream cost support was weakened, which had a negative impact on the sulfuric acid market. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly. The ex factory price rose from 9985.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10442.86 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.58% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.59% compared with the same period last year. The downstream ammonium sulfate market rose slightly, with the price rising from 1440.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1510.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.86% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.80%. Downstream market rose slightly, and downstream manufacturers became more active in purchasing sulfuric acid.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of November, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. Although the upstream sulfur price fell slightly, the price was at a high level, which provided some support for the price of sulfuric acid. The downstream market of hydrofluoric acid and ammonium sulfate rose slightly, the downstream procurement of sulfuric acid became more active, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the sulfuric acid analysts of the business community, the short-term sulfuric acid market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, mainly finishing.

This week (10.17-21), the domestic liquid ammonia market declined. After a sharp rise in September, the market gradually fell from a high level this week. The supply has changed from tight to loose. The amount of ammonia released in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Hunan, Fujian, Southwest and other major production areas has increased, and the price has also decreased to varying degrees. According to the monitoring of the business community, the drop of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 1.82% this week, and the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in this area was 3900-4100 yuan/ton near the weekend.

From the supply side, the ammonia release in the main production areas increased sharply this week. Since last weekend, the shipments in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, Hunan and Fujian have increased significantly, and with the effect of manufacturers’ successive price reductions, the shipment has become more powerful. Moreover, due to the downward price of urea, many enterprises have switched to liquid ammonia production, and the short-term ammonia volume has increased significantly, so the supply pressure has increased significantly.

On the end, the downstream demand for liquid ammonia is sluggish, and the focus of urea trading has moved down significantly. According to the monitoring of the business community, urea fell 1.92% this week. As of the 21st, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong was 2400-2500 yuan/ton. The main reason is that the downstream industrial demand has weakened, and the operating rate of plates is generally low. In addition, the demand for compound fertilizer has declined at the end of the autumn peak fertilizer season, and the agricultural demand has entered the slack season. The price of urea dropped from a high level.

Future market forecast:

Analysts from the business community believe that the current market atmosphere is weak due to the increased pressure on supply and demand. The risk on the supply side is still increasing. The amount of ammonia released by enterprises may only increase but not decrease in the later period. On the contrary, agricultural demand enters the slack season, and downstream procurement will continue to slow down. Therefore, ammonia prices will continue to be under pressure next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine rose this week. The average market price was 46400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 48200 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose 3.88%, down 30.65% year on year. On October 20, the bromine commodity index was 164.21, unchanged from yesterday, 33.02% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 (2021-10-27), and 178.70% higher than the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices rose this week, and those of major manufacturers in Shandong rose. Bromine enterprises are reluctant to sell and intentionally drive up prices. However, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are not supported enough in the near future. The supply and demand game, and the transaction price of bromine mainstream rose. However, the market is still dominated by just in need procurement.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price fell this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1510 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 1433.33 yuan/ton. The price fell 5.08%, 31.2% year-on-year. The downstream sulfuric acid market is running steadily, the supply and demand in the plant are relatively balanced, the enterprise’s quotation is temporarily stable, the monoammonium phosphate market is mainly stable, the autumn fertilizer consumption is approaching the end, the market transaction and investment are weak, the overall downstream demand is weak, and the support for the sulfur market is insufficient. The sulfur refinery in Shandong has poor shipment, and the enterprise’s quotation is lowered according to its own shipment situation.

According to the analysts of the business society, the price of bromine has risen recently, and the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have generally supported in the near future. The supply and demand of both sides are playing a game, and bromine enterprises are reluctant to sell, which has led to a lingering upward atmosphere. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will still run well, depending on the downstream market demand.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market rose slightly this week. The price of sulfuric acid rose from 406.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 426.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 4.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 52.22%. On October 20, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 66.30, unchanged from yesterday, 64.75% lower than the highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13) in the cycle, and 110.34% higher than the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market declined slightly, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers rose slightly this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market declined slightly. The price of sulfur fell from 1560.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1433.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decline of 8.12%. Compared with the same period last year, the price of sulfur fell by 31.20% year on year. The upstream market declined slightly and the cost support weakened. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market was consolidated at a high level. The market price was 10300.00 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 14.10%. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream market was low and consolidated. The market price was 16016.67 yuan/ton, down 23.55% year on year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market was average, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In late October, the domestic sulfuric acid market was mainly down due to slight shock. The upstream sulfur market has declined in a narrow range recently, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream market of hydrofluoric acid and ammonium sulfate was consolidated at a high level, while the titanium dioxide market was consolidated at a low level. The downstream customers were generally motivated to purchase sulfuric acid, and the product trend was downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to the sulfuric acid analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price may fall slightly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the data of the business society, the market of chloroform dropped to a high level this week (10.17-10.24). As of October 24, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 4050 yuan/ton, down 4.70% from 4250 yuan/ton last Monday, and the peak in the week was 4350 yuan/ton. There was little new demand for chloroform, the factory price of enterprises was lowered, and the offer of merchants was lower.

Since October, the commencement of domestic methane chloride has remained at a high level, with little overall change. The supply of trichloromethane was basically stable, with few new orders from enterprises, and the supply of trichloromethane increased slightly.

The spot price of methanol rose this week (10.17-10.24), and the cost of chloroform was supported. According to the business community, as of October 24, the spot price of methanol was 2954 yuan/ton, up 5.03% from 2812 yuan/ton last Monday.

At present, the downstream refrigerant, printing and dyeing, ink and paint, pharmaceutical and other industries have started to work steadily, and the demand is supported by chloroform.

Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the downstream just needs support, and the tight supply pattern has eased. If the supply trend is loose in the later period, the chloroform market will continue to fall.

Commodity index: According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on October 15 was 36.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 63.99% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 32.00% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: Natural rubber mainstream price trend since October 2022

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business community, the spot market of domestic natural rubber (Standard 1) in the East China market in the first half of October showed a weak downward trend. Although it occasionally rebounded slightly, it generally weakened; Among them, since the trading day after the National Day, the East China market reported 12340 yuan/ton on October 10 and 12142 yuan/ton on October 15, down 1.6%.

Figure 3: Weekly K Histogram of Natural Rubber Market in 2022

Industry: According to the monitoring of the business community, the supply side: the supply of natural rubber continued to be strong in October, and the natural rubber of the main producing countries continued to be in high volume. The September report released by ANRPC around October 8 predicted that the global natural rubber output in September was expected to increase by 3.7% to 1.38 million tons, an increase of 5.1% over the previous month; In 2022, the global gum output will increase by 2.3% to 14376000 tons, including 0.9% in Thailand, 2.9% in Indonesia, 1.8% in China, 12.3% in India, 1.3% in Vietnam and 14.8% in Malaysia. The price trend of natural rubber has weakened. Although the price of raw materials in Thailand has risen slightly due to the weather, it is not sustainable. The purchase price of Hainan made full emulsion glue of domestic rubber has also dropped by about 300 yuan/ton and remained below 10000 yuan/ton. Demand side: First of all, in terms of the operating rate of tire enterprises, the weak procurement of downstream enterprises before the festival improved after the festival, and the operating data of tire enterprises picked up slightly. The data showed that the operating load of domestic tire enterprises was 41.67% in the week from September 30 to October 6, and the operating load of domestic tire enterprises was 64.69%, up 23.02 percentage points month on week and 10.13 percentage points year on year. Secondly, in terms of tire production, China’s total production of all steel tires in September 2022 was 10.891 million, up 12.54% year on year and down 1.44% month on month. From January to September 2022, China’s total output of all steel tires was 91.5325 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.67%. In September 2022, China’s total production of semi steel tires was 41.8634 million, up 13.04% year on year and down 0.14% month on month. From January to September 2022, China’s cumulative production of semi steel tires was 363.0439 million, down 0.63% year on year. The cumulative production of all steel tires and semi steel tires was lower than that of last year. In general, the output and import volume of natural rubber continued to increase, the downstream demand was weak to the price of rubber was weak, and the mixed rubber was not enough to keep up with the growth; The market reflects that it is difficult to do business in natural rubber this year, so far, it has not presented the previous “golden nine silver ten” peak season, and the market has weakened recently.

Figure 4: Trend Chart of International Crude Oil Mainstream Prices in Recent March 2022

Macro: On October 12, international crude oil futures closed down. As of Wednesday of the week, oil prices had fallen for three consecutive days; On the 13th, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, which boosted risky assets such as crude oil. International crude oil futures rebounded. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 89.11 dollars/barrel, up 1.84 dollars or 2.11%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 94.57 dollars/barrel, up 2.12 dollars or 2.29%. With regard to the future market, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that the diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Recent hot spots:

1. In September 2022, China’s heavy truck market will sell about 52000 vehicles (invoicing caliber), up 13% month on month and 12% lower than 59200 vehicles in the same period last year. 52000 units are the lowest sales volume in September since 2016, and September this year is also the 17th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since May last year. Downstream demand is sluggish and inventory is high, and heavy truck sales are lower than expected.

2. According to the data released by the China Automobile Association recently, auto production and sales continued to grow rapidly in September, highlighting the nature of the traditional sales peak season. In the same month, the production and sales of 2.672 million and 2.61 million vehicles respectively increased by 11.5% and 9.5% month on month, 28.1% and 25.7% year on year. The month on month growth turned from negative to positive, and the year-on-year growth rate was slightly lower than that of last month. From January to September, the production and sales of automobiles reached 19.632 million and 19.47 million respectively, up 7.4% and 4.4% year on year, 2.6 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points higher than that from January to August.

Figure 5: Comparison Chart of Annual Spot Market Trend of Natural Rubber from 2020 to 2022

Future forecast: the international crude oil price fell, the global economic outlook was weak, the heavy truck market demand was sluggish and the sales volume was lower than expected. Under the influence of the industrial chain, its demand for tire enterprises was weak, and the market trend of natural rubber as its raw material continued to be sluggish, and was weaker than the trend of natural rubber in 2021 and 2020. According to recent news, Malaysia has indicated that it will cooperate with Thailand and Indonesia in various aspects to stabilize the price, including jointly setting the minimum rubber price.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market rose sharply this week. The price of sulfuric acid rose from 346.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 406.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 17.34%, a year-on-year drop of 53.60%. On October 16, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 63.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.40% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 100.48% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market rose slightly, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers rose sharply this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose slightly. The sulfur price rose from 1550.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1560.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.65%. Compared with the same period of last year, it fell by 23.40% year on year. The upstream market fluctuated narrowly, with good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, with the market price rising from 10285.71 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10300.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.59% compared with the same period last year. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream fell slightly. The market price fell from 16266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 16016.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 1.54%. Compared with the same period of last year, it fell 23.55% year on year. The downstream market rose and fell with each other, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the middle and late October, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream sulfur market has experienced a narrow range of shocks at a high level recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. The downstream market of hydrofluoric acid and ammonium sulfate rose slightly, while the titanium dioxide market fell slightly. Downstream customers became more active in purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price will rise mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.