According to the data monitoring of Business News Agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on February 27 was 94.09, which was the same as yesterday, down 15.62% from the highest point of 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 13.51% from the lowest point of 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market was stable in late February 2023, with the main price of about 15442.86 yuan/ton. At present, the polyacrylamide manufacturers have sufficient inventory, the downstream demand is general, the market is not strong, and the order situation is not ideal. The mainstream market of raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid declined mainly in the last ten days, and the downstream demand of both did not support the price rise; The downstream demand of polyacrylamide itself continued to be weak, and its market declined slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data from the Business News Agency, the market price of acrylonitrile continued to decline in late February. As of February 28, the bulk water price of acrylonitrile market was 10500 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from 10525 yuan/ton on February 21; Among them, the highest price of the stage is 10525 yuan/ton on February 21, and the lowest price is 10500 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The market of acrylonitrile raw materials was mainly down, while the cost was down; The stable production and commencement of the downstream have a strong need for support for acrylonitrile, but the downstream has a slight resistance to high-priced sources of goods. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.

Acrylic acid as raw material: According to the data from the Business News Agency, the acrylic acid market in late February first declined slightly and then rebounded slightly. Among them, the average price in East China on February 21 was 8100 yuan/ton, and the average price on February 28 was 8050 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.62% in the current ten days; The highest price of the stage is 8100 yuan/ton on the 21st, and the lowest price is 8000 yuan/ton on the 23-26, with the maximum amplitude of 0.82%. The supply-side cost support still exists, the operating rate is at a low level, the terminal demand is slow to follow up, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is general, and the focus of acrylic acid market negotiation is loose. At the end of the month, there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and it was expected that the acrylic acid market would be dominated by stalemate and consolidation in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the data of Business News Agency, the domestic liquefied natural gas (LNG) in late February fell first and then went up: from 6060 yuan/ton on February 21 to 6082 yuan/ton on February 28; Among them, the highest stage price was 6082 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the lowest stage price was 5964 yuan/ton on the 24th, with a maximum amplitude of 1.98%.

Aftermarket forecast: the price of main raw materials will mainly decline slightly, and the production of polyacrylamide will be normal and the inventory will be sufficient. The demand for downstream demand orders will continue to be weak. It is expected that the support will continue to be unfavorable in the short term, and the polyacrylamide market will continue to be weak.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend of paraxylene in February was temporarily stable. By the end of the month, the domestic ex-factory price of paraxylene was 8500 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 6.25%.

In February, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the operation of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 tons unit was stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Pengzhou Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit was normal, the operation of Jinling Petrochemical unit was stable, the Qingdao Lidong unit was operating at full load, the operation of Qilu Petrochemical unit was stable, the operation of Urumqi Petrochemical unit was about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The operation of overseas units is normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene is stable. In February, the international crude oil price fluctuated, and the PX outer price range fluctuated. As of the 24th, the closing price in Asia was 994-996 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1019-1021 dollars/ton CFR China. The operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained recently. Overall, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is around 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the domestic PX market trend is temporarily stable.

In February, the international crude oil price fell slightly by 3.23%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 76.32 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 82.82 dollars/barrel. On the macro level, the inflation level in the United States remains high, the economic data is strong, and the month-on-month rise in inflation data in January makes the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate increase continue to rise. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its first meeting in 2023. As soon as the news came out, the oil market fell sharply at the end of the day. The minutes showed that the probability of further interest rate increase was increased, and the stubbornness of inflation and the long-term trend of inflation made the interest rate reduction at the end of the year almost impossible, which led to the pressure on the prices of risky assets such as crude oil. The western developed economies are suffering from inflation and are still in the expected channel of economic recession. It is difficult for oil demand to improve in the medium and long term. It can also be seen from the EIA inventory data that the super accumulation of gasoline and refined oil makes market participants uneasy, especially the news that the United States has released its crude oil reserves again is also negative for the oil market. However, the rising demand in Asia has played a certain supporting role in the international oil price and suppressed the decline of crude oil. On the whole, the price trend of crude oil market declined, while the price trend of paraxylene was stable.

In February, the domestic PTA spot market declined slightly, with the average price of 5636 yuan/ton in the East China market by the end of the month, down 2.21% from the beginning of the month. Recently, some PTA devices have been overhauled, the operating rate is around 72%, the PTA supply has decreased slightly, the short fiber supply in the downstream has increased slightly in the near future, and the start of the downstream yarn mills and weaving mills has been resumed, but the start of construction is less than expected, the demand recovery is less than expected, the short fiber enterprises have just purchased, and the short fiber enterprises have accumulated a small stock. On the whole, the downstream market is still weak. In general, the downstream textile industry is volatile, and the domestic paraxylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at PX Business Agency, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play against the demand side, and the downstream PTA inventory and supply will tighten expectations. With the coming of the “golden three silver four” peak season, the market’s expectation of demand is still relatively optimistic. In general, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will rise in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was stable this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9828.57 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 9828.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decline of 13.18%.

Supply side: the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions is 9700-10200 yuan/ton. Some units are still in shutdown recently, but the hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, and the manufacturer’s hydrofluoric acid order is poor, which affects the hydrofluoric acid price to remain low.

Raw material side: the price trend of raw fluorite market is temporarily stable. As of the 24th, the average price of domestic fluorite is 3050 yuan/ton, and the price trend is stable this week. Recently, the operating rate of domestic supply side has increased, some fluorite enterprises have started operations, and the supply of domestic fluorite production enterprises has increased. The raw material mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. The insufficient supply of raw materials is also a major factor affecting the supply of fluorite. The price trend of fluorite on the site is temporarily stable, and hydrofluoric acid is affected by costs, and the market price fluctuates little.

The market price of raw material sulfuric acid rose. As of the 24th, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 248.33 yuan/ton. The price rose 4.2% this week, and the price rose this week. Recently, domestic sulphuric acid plants have been operating stably and the supply has been normal, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement of sulphuric acid has increased. Positive factors have supported the rise of sulphuric acid prices, which has driven the domestic hydrofluoric acid market to stop falling and stabilize.

Demand side: the market of refrigerant products at the downstream of the terminal rose slightly, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remained low. Some enterprises resumed work and slightly increased the ex-factory price, driving the domestic refrigerant R22 price to rise slightly. The refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. Affected by the low price of hydrofluoric acid, the refrigerant industry is under pressure, and the price increase of R22 is limited. The domestic R134a manufacturers operate at low load, and the price trend of R134a rises slightly. However, at present, the demand procurement is the main part, and the downstream enterprises are not starting high. The traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market price of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24500-25500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not yet resumed production. The refrigerant delivery is light, and the downstream R134a market is slightly higher. Recently, the downstream refrigerant industry has not been active in procurement, and the operating rate is less than 30%. The purchase of upstream raw materials is scarce, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Aftermarket forecast: In the short term, the raw material fluorite market will remain weak, and the downstream refrigerant industry will remain sluggish. However, the refrigerant market will rise slightly, and the combination of short and long factors will affect the market. Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of the Business Agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will remain low in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, as of February 22, the average price of domestic industrial 85% formic acid enterprises was 3433.33 yuan/ton, which was 0.98% higher than that of last Friday (February 17).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been stable after a slight rise. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has risen, the market of raw material methanol has fluctuated in a narrow range, and the pressure on cost has increased, which has driven the price of formic acid to rise, and the volume of mainstream devices in the early stage has been reduced. However, the market supply is sufficient, the demand of the main downstream formate market is moderate, and the market price is high, and the formic acid market is strong.

Upstream products: upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable on February 21, and the reference price of sulfuric acid was 243.33 on February 21, up 5.03% compared with February 1 (231.67); Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. From February 14 to 21 (as of 15:00 p.m.), the average price of the domestic methanol market in the East China port rose from 2691 yuan/ton to 2714 yuan/ton. The price rose 0.85% and 0.90% month-on-month in the cycle.

According to the formic acid analysts of the Business Society, at present, the cost support is strong, the market is still dominated by inventory digestion, and the demand is expected to rise steadily. In the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be dominated by strong operation, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest dropped from 3683.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3583.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.71%. The year-on-year decline was 13.65%. The calcium carbide commodity index on February 19 was 93.89, which was the same as yesterday, down 55.76% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26), and up 69.20% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and average downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The market price of the upstream semicoke market was low, and the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of Shenmu charcoal was around 1400-1600 yuan/ton, and the cost support was insufficient. The market price of PVC rose from 6153.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6193.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.65%. The year-on-year decline was 29.86%. The PVC market price fluctuated slightly, and the downstream customers were generally motivated to purchase calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fall in the aftermarket

In late February, the carbide market may fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal is low, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream PVC market is slightly fluctuating and rising, and the downstream demand is general. In late February, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may fall in a narrow range.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

It can be seen from the above figure that the ex-factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex-factory price of isooctanol mainstream manufacturers in Shandong fell from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9500.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.40%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 26.92% year-on-year. The isooctanol commodity index on February 19 was 69.85, which was the same as yesterday, down 49.20% from the highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 98.72% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weaker downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex-factory quotation of Shandong isooctanol mainstream manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The price fell from 7558.25 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7513.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.60%, down 7.31% year-on-year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the factory price of DOP rose first and then fell this week. The price of DOP dropped by 1.29% from 10050.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 9920.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 20.80% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Future prospects

In late February, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province was mainly subject to small fluctuations. The upstream propylene market fell slightly and the cost support was insufficient. Downstream DOP market fell slightly, and downstream demand weakened. The isooctanol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fall mainly due to small fluctuations under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

The price of DOP fell in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 17, the price of DOP was 9920 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from 10050 yuan/ton on February 10. The price of DOP rebounded weakly, and the price of DOP fell sharply this week.

The price of raw material isooctanol fell in shock

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 17, the price of isooctanol was 9500 yuan/ton, down by 2.40% from the price of isooctanol of 9733.33 yuan/ton on February 10. The demand is weak, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on DOP prices increased.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride recovered

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of February 17, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8287.50 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the price of 8237.50 yuan/ton on February 10. The price of phthalic anhydride is strong this week, but the terminal demand recovery is limited. The market of phthalic anhydride is stagnant this week, the price of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the rising power of DOP is weakened.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOP data analysts of the Business News Agency, the price of isooctanol, the raw material, fell in shock, the price of phthalic anhydride stabilized, the cost of DOP fell, and the downward pressure on DOP increased. In the future, the cost of DOP fell and the demand was weak, and the price of DOP was expected to fall in shock.

Market overview: According to the data of the bulk list of the business agency, as of February 16, 2023, the market reference price of diethylene glycol was 5376.67 yuan/ton, up 43.34 yuan/ton or 0.81% compared with the price of February 9, 2023 (5333.33 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business agency that the domestic diethylene glycol market has a narrow range this week, and the delivery of goods from the ports in East China is good and stable, with a strong intention to follow up the offer. Up to now, the spot price and this week’s negotiation price are at 5350-5360 yuan/ton. The market in South China is affected by the trend of the market in East China, and the price of the holders has been slightly increased. Up to now, the mainstream spot price is around 5550-5600 yuan/ton. This week, the international oil price rose as a whole, and the cost side support was strong. From the perspective of supply, the main port kept good delivery and the recent shipping schedule gap, and the inventory continued to decline. As of February 13, 2023, the inventory of East China port was about 40800 tons, down by 3300 tons from last week, down by 7.48%. As of February 16, 2023, the total inventory of the two warehouses in Zhangjiagang reservoir area was 39000 tons, down by 2100 tons from last week. On the whole, the performance of diethylene glycol supply side was fair; From the perspective of demand, the commencement of unsaturated resin in the downstream increased slightly this week, and the demand for diethylene glycol remained stable, so there was some support on the demand side. In general, the cost side support is relatively strong, the supply and demand fundamentals support is relatively stable, and the market price continues to rise.

East China Port Arrival Schedule this week and next week

At present, the crude oil market returns to the basic guidance, and it is expected that the international crude oil price will fluctuate and fall, and the cost support of diethylene glycol will be weak; Although the port inventory is stable, the next arrival volume is large, and the expected restart of a 280000 ton unit of Wuhan Petrochemical next week, the domestic output increases, the supply side performance is poor, and in the short term, the downstream unsaturated resin manufacturers are mainly operating at a low level, so the demand for diethylene glycol is difficult to significantly increase. The diethylene glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the cost side support is insufficient, the supply side is affected by the negative impact, and the demand is relatively stable, The short-term market price of diethylene glycol has the possibility of a narrow decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the price of caustic soda was weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1092 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average market price in Shandong was 1060 yuan/ton. The price fell 2.93%, and the price rose 7.61% compared with the same period last year. The caustic soda commodity index on February 12 was 152.52, which was the same as yesterday, down 42.55% from the highest point of 265.47 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 134.25% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the Business Agency, the domestic caustic soda price fell this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 940-1080 yuan/ton. The ex-factory quotation of 32% of the mainstream liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1030-1200 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the site is weak. The inventory of the enterprise is relatively sufficient. The downstream of caustic soda is mainly purchased on demand, and the caustic soda lacks favorable support.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, in the 6th week of 2023 (2.6-2.10), there were 2 commodities that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 0 commodities that rose or fell. The main commodities rising were: light soda ash (1.10%) and hydrochloric acid (0.65%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 2.93%), PVC (- 0.57%) and calcium carbide (- 0.45%). This week’s average rise and fall was -0.44%%.

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has declined, the downstream alumina procurement is general, the trading atmosphere is relatively light, and the inventory of caustic soda enterprises is sufficient. Now, the majority of caustic soda enterprises are based on demand, and it is comprehensively estimated that the latter stage of caustic soda will be dominated by weak operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of the domestic mainstream market of neopentyl glycol rose from 10233.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10866.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 6.19%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell 40.05% year-on-year. The commodity index of neopentyl glycol on February 12 was 52.37, which was the same as yesterday, down 49.45% from the highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22) in the cycle, and up 21.65% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol rose slightly.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose first and then fell this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market rose from 8266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 8566.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 3.63%. There is a downward trend over the weekend. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In the middle and late February, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fall slightly. The market price of isobutyraldehyde in the upstream rose slightly and the cost support increased, but the price had a downward trend at the weekend. The downstream paint market is general, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials and other factors, and the market price may fall slightly.