1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash this week was largely stable and slightly dynamic. The average market price of light soda ash was 2650 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 2644 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell 0.23%, down 27.31% from the same period last year. On November 10, the commodity index of light soda ash was 135.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.30% from the highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and up 114.71% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash this week is mainly stable, and the price is large, stable and small. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2650-2800 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2750 yuan/ton. Data shows that the operating rate of soda ash this week is about 89%.

Demand: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of glass fell this week. On Monday, the average market price was 19.63 yuan/square meter, and on the weekend, the average market price was 19.52 yuan/ton. The price fell 0.56%, down 23.96% year on year. The overall trading situation of the glass spot market is average. Transportation in some areas is affected to some extent. On the whole, the glass market is relatively flexible. Downstream processing plants mainly purchase on demand, and most manufacturers’ quotations are stable.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 0 kinds of rising commodities, 2 kinds of falling commodities and 3 kinds of zero rising commodities in the price list of chlor alkali industry in the 44th week of 2022 (10.31-11.4). The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 3.00%) and PVC (- 0.47%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.7%.

Analysts from the business society believe that: according to the survey data of the business society, the price of domestic soda ash is generally stable and slightly dynamic. Recently, soda ash enterprises have started to work in a relatively stable manner. The overall trading and investment atmosphere is ordinary. The downstream of soda ash is still mainly purchased on demand. The upstream and downstream supply and demand play a game, and the price of soda ash is under pressure. It is estimated that the price of soda ash will be mainly consolidated in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

Price trend

In the second week of November, the domestic POM market rose by a narrow margin, and the overall price performance was very high. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic POM was 13700 yuan/ton on November 6 and 13866.67 yuan/ton on November 14, with a weekly increase and decrease of+1.22%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: the methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range last week. During the week, some large plants shut down their production units and the supply decreased. However, in some regions, there is resistance in the shipment of goods, and the demand is limited, and the downstream receiving price is weak; Shandong formaldehyde market is also vulnerable to consolidation due to poor transportation. There were few real deals on the floor, and trading did not improve significantly.

Supply: Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has remained at a high level. Except Zhangjiagang Xuhuacheng, other polymerization plants are operating at full load, and the current industry load is more than 90%. The processing profit of the enterprise fluctuates in a narrow range, with a gross profit level of about 2300 yuan per ton, which is acceptable.

Demand: Although the load of POM industry was high last week, the supply of goods in the market was generally tight. The confidence of producers and traders is fair, and the willingness to support prices is generally strong. The trading position of domestic POM in East China and South China markets rose together, with an average weekly increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. However, the enthusiasm of the terminal enterprises for goods preparation is general, and the demand follow-up is slightly lagging behind.

Future market forecast

In the second week of November, the market of POM rose in a narrow range. The load of domestic polymerization plants is high, and some spot logistics are not smooth due to the impact of public health events. The market supply is slightly tight and there is an expectation of further tightening. In terms of demand, it is slightly insufficient. Downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory, and pick up goods mostly in small pieces. The fundamentals of the market are mixed, and the supply and demand pull the game. It is expected that in the short term, the POM market will rise and be blocked, and fall back to the consolidation market.

The spot market price of asphalt continued to decline this week, mainly because of the end of demand, the refinery reduced the price for shipment, and the downstream factories mainly purchased on demand. The actual delivery atmosphere was not good.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, from November 4 to 7, the average spot price of domestic asphalt manufacturers in Shandong was 4285 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 4163 yuan/ton at the weekend. During the cycle, the price fell 2.83%, the price fell 6.96% month on month, and rose 19.37% year on year.

It can be seen from the comparison chart of the price trends of crude oil and asphalt in the business community that the price trends of brent crude oil and asphalt are different before and after November 1. Before November 1, the trends of the two are roughly the same. After November 1, the trends of the two are in contrast, with crude oil rising while asphalt continuing to decline. It can be concluded that the main factor influencing the asphalt price trend in the near future is not crude oil, but other aspects, such as supply and demand.

It can be seen from the price rise and fall chart of the asphalt industry chain of the business community that the prices of the whole industry chain fell in the past month, including crude oil (- 0.17%), asphalt (- 6.96%), and activated carbon (- 1.23%); The products with increased prices include coal tar (1.85%).

The weekly K column chart of domestic asphalt production price of the business agency shows that the asphalt market has been dominated by narrow shocks in the past two months, and the decline in the past two Mondays is more obvious.

At present, asphalt supply is relatively stable; From the demand side, the road demand may be limited due to weather conditions. Business agency asphalt analysts expect that the short-term domestic asphalt market will be dominated by downturn.

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of November 11, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8033.33 yuan/ton, 2.03% lower than the price on Monday, and 7.31% lower than the price on October 11.

Acrylic acid market was stable and fell this week. From the perspective of cost, the price of raw propylene has risen recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. From the perspective of supply and demand, the operating rate of some equipment maintenance has declined slightly compared with that in the early stage, but the downstream procurement is just in demand, the market transaction atmosphere is light and stable, and the acrylic acid market negotiation focuses on stability.

The upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, on November 10, the reference price of propylene was 7330.60, up 4.18% compared with November 1 (7036.60).

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the pressure on the cost side is increasing at present, and the downstream is mainly following up on demand, with little change in the supply and demand side. It is expected that the acrylic market will be mainly reorganized and operated in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the price of bromine kept stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 49800 yuan/ton, down 27.7% year on year. On November 3, the bromine commodity index was 174.74, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.73% from the highest point 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 196.57% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the bromine price was weak and consolidated, the overall market turnover was average, and the shipment was made at a small margin. Recently, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have been lack of support, and the supply and demand of bromine are relatively sufficient. However, the market establishment is still dominated by rigid demand procurement, and there is a phenomenon of taking advantage of opportunities to lower prices.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price fell this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1310 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 1250 yuan/ton. The price fell 4.58%, down 41.13% year on year. At present, the sulfur market is mainly wait-and-see. Affected by the increase in port arrivals, the downstream demand of refineries in East China is weakened, and at the same time, due to the impact of public health events, transportation is limited, enterprises have difficulty shipping, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. It is expected that the sulfur market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the analysts of the business society, the price of bromine is weak in the near future. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported in the near future. The supply and demand of both sides are playing a game. Bromine enterprises intend to stabilize the price, but there is an opportunity to depress the price in the downstream. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will consolidate and operate, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from October 31 to November 4, the domestic ethanol market was on the sidelines. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic ethanol producers remained at 6762 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it reached 6750 yuan/ton. The price fell 0.18% within the week, 0.18% month on month, and 0.37% year-on-year.

The price range of the domestic ethanol market was volatile, and the short-term price was hardly boosted, with a small downward trend as the main trend. The price of raw corn fluctuated, the starting load of downstream chemical acetate was stable, and the demand decreased. Stable load arrangement on the plant surface, and weak price operation on the ethanol market.

From the aspect of raw materials and cost, the business community monitored that the domestic corn market price was relatively strong, rising 0.20% from 2801 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2807 yuan/ton at the end of the week.

From the perspective of downstream products, the commencement of downstream ethyl acetate basically remained stable, and the price market was stable. The business community monitored that the price of ethyl acetate remained at 6950 yuan/ton at the beginning and end of the week, with steady rise and fall.

In the short term, the price of corn is mainly stable, and the supply in the later period is increased, which may be weak. The downstream ethyl acetate operates weakly and stably. The ethanol analysts of the business community predicted that the domestic ethanol market would be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has risen. As of the 6th day, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11128.57 yuan/ton, up 6.42% from the beginning of the week’s price of 10457.14 yuan/ton.

The price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has risen. Recently, the epidemic situation has been repeated in some parts of the north, some devices have been shut down, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased. The operating rate of hydrofluoric acid declined in the overhaul of some manufacturers in the south, which affected the price trend to rise. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 11100-11500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11200-11600 yuan/ton. In terms of export, the export price is higher than the domestic market price due to problems such as content and packaging. The export price is about 13000 yuan/ton.

The market price of raw material fluorite rose. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3187.5 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from 3156.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. Since the middle of October, the price has reached a high level. At present, the price is at the peak of the year. The operating rate of fluorite mines remains low. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient operation of fluorite mines. There is a shortage of fluorite raw materials in China. The commencement of fluorite flotation is limited, and the spot supply is insufficient. In addition, the import of fluorite is limited. The epidemic situation in Inner Mongolia is serious, the transportation of fluorite is difficult, and the supply of fluorite is very tight. The cost of hydrofluoric acid drives the market up.

The market of the downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is average, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry is maintained. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is in the range of 18000-19000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has not changed much. The price of trichloroethylene is temporarily stable, and the cost support is still in place. The focus of R134a trading remains stable. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, and the price of hydrofluoric acid is rising due to the cost.

In the future, the fluorine chemical industry has improved, the price of raw materials fluorite has remained high, the price of sulfuric acid raw materials has risen, and the price trend of downstream refrigerant products has temporarily stabilized. In addition, the domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly strained recently, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are well supported. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst from the business community, believes that the price trend of the hydrofluoric acid market may rise slightly in the future.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of November 4, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9306.67 yuan/ton, down 4.38% compared with the price on Monday, 17.40% compared with the price on October 4, and 18.60% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The epichlorohydrin market was weak this week, and the trading atmosphere was light. From the perspective of supply and demand: some devices at the supply end are in a shutdown state, but the downstream is not in a good mood to purchase raw materials. The market supply is sufficient, and the inventory is under pressure. The cargo holder gives up profits to ship, and the excess supply drags the focus of epichlorohydrin market negotiation downward.

From the upstream and downstream perspective: raw propylene. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell slightly this week, and rebounded slightly at the weekend. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7136 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7000 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 1.91%. The raw glycerin was weak, and its cost was limited in terms of epichlorohydrin support. Downstream epoxy resin. On November 3, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China continued to decline. The market negotiation price was 17100-17800 yuan/ton. The overall negotiation and the last trading day fell by 200 yuan/ton, which was insufficient to support the epichlorohydrin market.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current cost support is average, the supply side is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be weak in the short term. More attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic ABS market rose in October and then fell back, and the spot prices of various brands rose first and then fell. As of October 31, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 12050 yuan/ton, up or down by -6.23% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: In terms of raw styrene, the market price of styrene fell this month, and rose slightly at the end of the month, but the range was limited. In the first half of the month, the port inventory kept rising, the domestic styrene supply increased synchronously, and the domestic market witnessed warehouse building, which was difficult to support the styrene market. In the second half of the month, we went to the warehouse slightly, and in addition, many styrene manufacturers had maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, so the spot market of styrene slightly corrected. However, the international crude oil futures declined, the petrochemical industry chain was weak and consolidated, and the rise of styrene spot market was limited under the weakening of costs. It is expected that the styrene market will still be weak in the short term

In October, the domestic acrylonitrile market was positive and continued to rise. Since September, domestic acrylonitrile enterprises have successively stopped operation and reduced load. At present, the acrylonitrile industry has started to operate at a lower level, with the overall load of the industry at about 60% to 70%, and the supply side pressure has eased compared with the previous period. The downstream acrylic fiber and acrylic fiber started to improve, and acrylamide and nitrile rubber started to work stably. The demand side of acrylonitrile during the Jin Jiu Yin Shi period was relatively strong. At present, on the one hand, the pressure on the supply side is not big, on the other hand, the demand continues to just need support; Acrylonitrile market is expected to remain high in the short term. However, the acrylonitrile industry has just undergone capacity expansion, so it is recommended to pay close attention to the information on industry load.

The domestic butadiene market continued to decline in October. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market was highlighted. The quotations of major manufacturers were lowered, and manufacturers in Northeast China were bidding for export to increase market circulation. At the same time, the downstream synthetic rubber market is weak, and the price difference between upstream and downstream continues to narrow. The butadiene market is difficult to get a positive boost from the downstream market, and the poor trading atmosphere brings drag on the market. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term.

In this month, the three upstream materials of ABS cost side showed a mixed trend, and the support of ABS cost side weakened. In terms of industry load, the current ABS industry load is high, maintained at a high level of 890%, and the supply side is under pressure due to the continuous abundance of goods on the market. In terms of demand, this month’s market continues the double festival stock up surge of last month, which is also the traditional peak demand season “Silver Ten”. However, with the end of stock up of terminal enterprises in the early stage, including the main downstream household appliances industry, the overall trading and investment in the market has declined. After the festival, there was no rising atmosphere in the market, and buyers did not accept the high offer well. The market momentum was affected, and the polymerization plant lowered the factory price. Near the end of the month, traders increased their interest giving and order taking operations.

Future market forecast:

Analysts from the business community believe that the ABS spot market fell after rising in October, and the three upstream materials rose and fell, weakening the support for the ABS cost side. The load of domestic industry is high, the spot supply is abundant, and the market demand is gradually weakening. Some terminal enterprises have digested the inventory in the early stage, and the supply of high priced goods is not smooth. It is expected that ABS spot market may be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the price of mixed xylene rose rapidly after the festival, and began to weaken continuously in the last ten days. The price of mixed xylene was 8020 yuan/ton on October 1 and 8230 yuan/ton on October 28, up 2.62% from the beginning of the month and 20.5% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

During the National Day, supported by the wide rise of crude oil, domestic mixed xylene rose along with it. Due to the weak performance of the terminal gasoline market affected by the epidemic situation, the price has fallen continuously. In addition, the downstream chemical products just need to follow up, and the demand side of mixed xylene performs poorly. The price has fallen since the middle of this month. The overall supply of mixed xylene market is tight, the factory inventory pressure is small, supporting the price, and the decline is limited.

In terms of crude oil, due to the OPEC+meeting’s decision to significantly reduce production from November, crude oil rose broadly during the National Day holiday. However, in the context of multi country interest rate hikes, economic data is weak, and oil prices continue to play a game around demand concerns and supply shortages. As of October 28, Brent rose by 7.81 dollars/barrel, or 8.88%; WTI rose by 8.41 dollars/barrel, or 10.58%.

In terms of external market, the price of Asian mixed xylene in external market rose slightly this month. On October 28, South Korea imported mixed xylene at a price of US $985/ton, up by US $12.5/ton month on month, or 1.29%.

In terms of PX market, domestic PX prices stabilized after rising this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 9000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than the beginning of the month, and 27.4% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of OX market, OX in East China stabilized after rising this month, with the price at the beginning of the month at 9000 yuan/ton and at the end of the month at 9600 yuan/ton, 6.67% higher than the beginning of the month and 39.13% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong Province fell continuously this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8693 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8329 yuan/ton, down 4.19% from the beginning of the month and 3.88% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the market is worried about the economic and demand prospects under the background of multi country interest rate increases; However, OPEC+plans to reduce production, and the geopolitical situation still worries about the tension of energy supply. It is expected that the international oil price will continue to play a long short game with a volatile trend. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

In November, the demand side of mixed xylene may continue to weaken, and the price may continue to weaken. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene prices.