In November, the domestic fluorite price continued to rise. As of the end of the month, the average domestic fluorite price was 3225 yuan/ton, 1.57% higher than the month beginning price of 3175 yuan/ton. Since April, the price of fluorite has risen unilaterally. At present, the price is at the highest point in the year.

Supply side: The production of enterprises in the north is gradually stopped due to the decline of temperature

The operating rate of the domestic supply side has declined. On the one hand, the backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and on the other hand, the mineral survey work is still full of difficulties in terms of new mines. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental protection requirements, resulting in insufficient commencement of fluorite mines, shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials, and limited commencement of fluorite flotation. On the other hand, as the temperature drops, fluorite enterprises in the north gradually stop working, and the spot supply continues to decline. In addition, due to the severe epidemic in some areas, fluorite transportation is difficult, fluorite supply is very tight, and the supply of fluorite is difficult to obtain. The price of fluorite continues to rise.

Demand side: the price of hydrofluoric acid rises, and the refrigerant market is fair

The price trend of the downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose sharply. As of the end of the month, the price of the hydrofluoric acid market was 12242.86 yuan/ton, 10.30% higher than the price of 11100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The domestic market trend of hydrofluoric acid rose. Some enterprises reported that the supply of hydrofluoric acid was tight. The price rise of the hydrofluoric acid market formed a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of the fluorite market rose.

The market of downstream refrigerant products of the terminal is fair, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the demand for R22 market applications is guaranteed. The market quotation of R22 is between 18000-20000 yuan/ton. The domestic R134a price has declined slightly, the trichloroethylene price has risen, and the cost support is still in place. The R134a trading center has declined slightly. At present, the R134a market quotation is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan/ton. Previously, downstream refrigerant enterprises were all trading at a loss in order to compete for HFC production quota. With the implementation of the three generation refrigerant quota, the history of quota competition in the refrigerant industry is coming to an end, which also provides a basis for the price increase of the industrial chain. As a result, the fluorite market price has risen.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has been continuously developed in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite cathode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy, semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: North fluorite enterprises have entered a production suspension period. In addition to the recent shortage of raw material fluorite ore supply, hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a high mood to stock up. New energy, semiconductor and new material industries are developing rapidly, supporting the long-term demand for fluorite. Chen Ling, an analyst from the business community, believes that there is still room for the price of fluorite market to rise in December.

According to the monitoring of the business community, in November, the domestic adipic acid market went down unilaterally, mainly due to negative cost and imbalance between supply and demand. The market price range of adipic acid at the end of the month was 9600-9900 yuan/ton. Adipic acid dropped 7.40% in the whole month.

Adipic acid industry chain

Adipic acid industry chain fell across the board this month. The upstream raw materials of adipic acid declined significantly, especially the drop of pure benzene and cyclohexane was heavy, both exceeding 10%. The downstream PA66 also dropped significantly, nearly 8%. The terminal demand was sluggish, which reduced the shipment speed of adipic acid. The whole industrial chain resonates downward.

Cost side

On the cost side, it can be seen from the figure above that adipic acid has basically the same trend as the upstream pure benzene. Pure benzene has gone out of the first up and then down market. Petrochemical manufacturers have repeatedly lowered the guidance price this month, with a cumulative decline of nearly 1000 yuan. On the one hand, the pressure on the supply side is heavy, and the port inventory is high; On the other hand, the downstream demand slows down, and the substitution of low price of hydrogenated benzene for goods has a negative impact on the market. According to the monitoring of the business community, pure benzene dropped by 11.9% from October 11 to the end of the month.

Supply side

From the perspective of market supply, at the beginning of the month, the supplier settlement price was introduced, and generally low price settlement was adopted; In addition, the listing of Shandong Dachang was lowered for three times at the beginning, middle and end of the month, with a cumulative range of 2000 yuan. The supplier’s low price shipment brought heavy pressure on the market. From the perspective of the operating rate, the operating rate of this month remained around 60%, slightly higher than that of last month.

Demand side

The downstream demand of adipic acid is strong, and the rigid demand is the main demand. Take the downstream PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, the downstream PA66 declined significantly in November, at 7.92%. The spot supply was stable and abundant, causing the social inventory to rise. Especially the bad news on the demand side. When the traditional peak season ends, the enthusiasm of downstream goods preparation is further reduced, and the resistance to high price goods is strong. As the shipping speed of merchants slows down, the price drops again and again. As of the end of the month, the market price of PA66 was 24000 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, on the cost side, crude oil continues to be weak, and pure benzene continues to decline, which makes it difficult to benefit the cost side in the short term. At the end of the supply side maintenance month, some devices have joined the maintenance team, and the market continues to go out of stock, so the supply pressure may be relieved in the future. However, the demand side will not change the downturn in the short term, and the supply and demand game will continue. On the basis of comprehensive consideration, adipic acid may maintain a weak adjustment pattern. In the later stage, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the manufacturer’s commencement and the settlement price at the end of the month.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 25, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18500.00 yuan/ton, 0.89% lower than the price of 18666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 25.00% lower than the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of November 25, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25,333.33 yuan/ton, 1.94% lower than the price of 25,833.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 47.59% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The price of refrigerant R22 fluctuated slightly this week. The price of raw material trichloromethane fell sharply in November, falling by 32.33% in the month. Hydrofluoric acid continued to rise overall in November, rising by 8.75% in the month. The cost of raw material fluctuated at a low level. The demand for refrigerant in winter was generally light, the cost fluctuated slightly, and the price of refrigerant R22 moved forward with a small fluctuation.

As of November 25, the price of hydrofluoric acid continued to rise, with a slight increase of 8.75% in the month. The price of trichloroethylene continued to be weak, with a decline of about 5% in the month. The cost price of raw materials was generally weak and stable. The price of refrigerant R134a was stable this week.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid rose significantly in November, and the recovery of raw material cost will support the domestic price of refrigerant R134a in the future.

3、 Future market forecast

Refrigerant analysts from the business community believed that the price of chloroform fell sharply, the price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded from the bottom, the overall bottom of R22 cost price fluctuated, the cost weakness became stable, and the R22 market price would become stable in the future. The price of hydrofluoric acid rebounded sharply, the price of trichloroethylene dropped slightly, and the cost of R134a raw materials showed a slight recovery trend. Affected by the light overall demand for refrigerants in winter, the price of R134a refrigerant rose and fell in a dilemma. It is expected that the R134a market price will continue to fluctuate slightly at the current level in the short term.

Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market Price Trend

Polyformaldehyde price curve

(Photo source: Commodity Analysis System of Business Cooperatives)

In November, the price of polyoxymethylene in Shandong was stable. The average price of polyoxymethylene production in Shandong was 5433.33 yuan/ton, and the quotation was flat compared with last month. A year-on-year drop of 20.10%.

Chart of market price trend of methanol polyoxymethylene

Upstream methanol situation: domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly, mainly due to supply and demand. In terms of equipment, Yankuang Guojiao 250000 t/a equipment is shut down for maintenance. The 1.2 million t/a unit of Shanxi Jinmei Huayu is restored, and the 100000 t/a units of Shanxi Jinfeng, 100000 t/a units of Shanxi Tianze and 400000 t/a units of Shanxi Coking are planned to restart. The supply is abundant, but the existing demand has not been significantly boosted, and the short-term domestic methanol market is mainly weak.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and consolidated, with weak growth and general cost support. In addition, the transportation in Shandong is not smooth, and the market turnover is light. Polyformaldehyde analysts from the business community predict that the price may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell after rising this week (11.14-11.18). The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7312 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7230 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 1.12%, down 2.77% from 30 days ago.

As of November 18, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/November 18

Shandong region./7200-7250 yuan/ton

Northeast China../6850-6900 yuan/ton

East China/7100-7150 yuan/ton

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of this Friday, the mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market was 7200-7250 yuan/ton. Due to the large increase last week, the downstream was wait-and-see and the demand was suppressed. In order to stabilize the delivery of goods, the refinery lowered the price and gave up the increase. The overall supply and demand of propylene market is stable, with downstream demand as the main demand. However, this year, there are many new capacity, relatively loose supply, and great resistance to price rise. Affected by the sharp drop of crude oil on Friday, the market mentality was depressed, and the downstream receiving was slightly cautious.

Upstream: crude oil prices fell broadly this week. As of the end of November 17, WTI fell 3.95 to 81.64 US dollars/barrel in December, down 4.61%; In January, Brent fell 3.08 to 89.78 dollars/barrel, down 3.31%. Negative cost support. Downstream market was mixed, and the demand for some products was good, but polypropylene was still weak, holding back the propylene market.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative, the current long short game in the propylene market is affected by the sharp drop in crude oil. Under the leadership of bad news, propylene prices are expected to continue to decline in a narrow range next week.

This week (11.11-11.18), methylene chloride market was weak and fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2575 yuan/ton, down 5.5% from 2725 yuan/ton last Friday. As of the 18th, the market price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was between 2500 yuan and 2600 yuan/ton.

This week (11.11-11.18), the commencement of methane chloride increased slightly, and the pressure of dichloromethane supply surface remained.

This week (11.11-11.18), the spot market of methanol rose slightly, and the cost of dichloromethane rose slightly. According to the business community, as of November 18, the spot price of methanol was 2830 yuan/ton, up 1.89% from 2777 yuan/ton last Friday.

When winter comes, the domestic household air conditioning industry is in the low season of production and marketing. The demand for mainstream refrigerants R32, R22 and R410A is weak, and the refrigerant starts at a low level; The thin material and pharmaceutical industries started relatively stably, and the transactions in the dichloromethane market were generally flat.

Future forecast: The analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that the domestic supply of methane chloride is mainly loose, the cost is slightly weak, and the rising raw material price and cost are slightly supported. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of steam coal was weak this week. On November 20, the energy index was 1139, unchanged from yesterday, down 27.03% from the highest point of 1561 (2021-10-21) in the cycle, and up 122.90% from the lowest point of 511 on March 1, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

In terms of origin, the price of steam coal is weak, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The operation is affected by public health events and safety production reduction, and the price of steam coal is weak. The price of coal mine has been lowered by 20-40 yuan/ton. The overall supply guarantee and long-term cooperation of coal in the market are better, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood.

In terms of downstream ports, traders’ quotations declined, mainly taking a wait-and-see attitude. Downstream customers are generally motivated to pick up goods, with few deals, and generally accept high prices. The quotation of traders dropped slightly, and the buyer and seller were deadlocked.

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, last week (November 7-13), the national coal price fell steadily, including 1586 yuan per ton of No. 2 smokeless lump coal, unchanged from the previous week, 1481 yuan per ton of coking coal and 970 yuan per ton of steam coal, down 1.2% and 0.3% respectively. The price of steel products rose slightly, including 4053 yuan per ton of deformed steel bars, unchanged from the previous week, 4276 yuan per ton of high-speed wire rods and 4143 yuan per ton of hot rolled strip steel, up 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.

According to the analysts of the business community, the market transaction of steam coal in the origin area is relatively ordinary due to the impact of safety inspection and public health events. In terms of downstream ports, the downstream still mainly wait and see steam coal, generally accept high prices, and the coal price declines. The overall purchasing enthusiasm of the market is average, and it is expected that the price of steam coal will be dominated by weak operation (but policy regulation still needs to be paid attention to), depending on the downstream market demand.

This week (11.14-18), the price of ethyl acetate in China fell significantly. According to the statistics of the business community, it fell by 0.73% this week, mainly because of the sharp decline of raw acetic acid and the price reduction of major manufacturers, especially the price decline of the main factories in Shandong, which changed from auction to retail, depressed the market confidence, and the weak downstream demand. At the weekend, the market price of ethyl acetate was 6400-6600 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of acetic acid, the domestic acetic acid fell significantly this week. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic acid fell by 3.07%. The utilization rate of acetic acid market capacity increased during the week. Celanese and Henan Shunda resumed operation within the week. The supply volume increased. The social inventory increased. In addition, the upstream methanol price fell and the cost was weak, which depressed the downstream market mentality. In terms of terminal demand: it is still weak at present, and the market trading atmosphere is general. In order to maintain the rhythm of shipment, the manufacturer has lowered its quotation, and the price trend of acetic acid continues to decline.

From the above figure, the price trend comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they are highly correlated, and the recent trend is basically the same. The recent downward trend of acetic acid is more severe than that of downstream ethyl acetate, which is not affected by the improvement of downstream demand. The acetic acid curve shows signs of approaching ethyl acetate, and the downward trend of acetic acid is intensified, which also relieves the cost pressure of downstream ethyl acetate manufacturers.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate this week was stable, and the operating rate was flat last week. At present, the operating rate of the industry is about 60%. Major factories in Shandong and Jiangsu maintained normal operation. This week, some manufacturers generally lowered their ex factory prices by about 100 yuan/ton. The manufacturer reduced the price and inventory, which depressed the market confidence. Moreover, the market expectation has turned weak. At present, the supply of ethyl acetate exceeds the demand.

On the demand side, downstream procurement generally slowed down. This week, dealers and downstream factories had weak purchasing intentions. Shandong’s main factories changed from auction to retail, and the deal was not ideal. Downstream orders contracted, leading to a significant slowdown in the speed of goods delivery. The number of transactions in the market is relatively small, and most transactions are at low prices. In addition to some downstream demand for goods preparation, the market as a whole maintains a rigid demand.

Looking at the future market, the ethyl acetate analysts of the business community believe that the current raw material acetic acid is still declining, and the cost is still negative, which does not rule out the possibility that the ethyl acetate will continue to fall next week. The supply and demand side is also difficult to see too much value. The low-end transactions in the market are better than the high-end transactions, so it is expected that the market of ethyl acetate will be weak in the short term.

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of November 17, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8033.33 yuan/ton, unchanged from Monday’s price and 7.31% lower than that on October 17.

This week, the acrylic acid market was stable. From the perspective of cost, the price of raw propylene has fallen recently, and the cost support has weakened. From the perspective of supply and demand: the plant load has been adjusted slightly, and the operating rate has declined compared with the previous period. However, the downstream procurement mentality is cautious. The market transaction is just in demand, and the atmosphere is general. The focus of acrylic acid market negotiation is stable.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose and fell back this week (11.14-11.18). The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7312 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7230 yuan/ton, with a weekly drop of 1.12%.

According to the acrylic analysts of the business community, the cost is still supported to some extent. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the market atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the acrylic market will operate with a subjective expectation of stability in the short term. More attention should be paid to the business commencement and the demand for cold transfer terminals in the north.

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 10, the price of nitrile rubber was 15250 yuan/ton, a new low in the year, 37.88% lower than the peak in the year. Since the beginning of the year, the nitrile rubber market has experienced two rounds of downturns. The first round of downward trend fell from the end of April to the end of August, with a decline of 35.79%; The second round of downward trend fell by 10.43% from late September to November 10. The traditional peak season of “golden nine and silver ten” only brought a small rebound to NBR in the short term, and the continuous downturn in demand once again dragged down NBR.

Raw material prices fell sharply, and the cost support of nitrile rubber was seriously insufficient. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of butadiene on November 10 was 6603 yuan/ton, 45.41% lower than the year high of 12096 yuan/ton; It was 28.83% lower than the September high of 9277 yuan/ton. Although the price of raw material acrylonitrile has rebounded since the end of August, it still fell sharply compared with the beginning of the year. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 10, the price of acrylonitrile was 11190 yuan/ton, down 23.15% from the high at the beginning of the year.

The supply side remained loose, dragging down the nitrile rubber market. On the one hand, the newly-built 35000 t/a butyronitrile unit of Lanzhou Petrochemical will be put into operation in May 2022, and there will be pressure on the supply side of the new butyronitrile capacity; On the other hand, during the Jin Jiu Yin Shi period, the domestic nitrile rubber plants basically operated normally, the enterprise inventory accumulated, and the pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber further increased. Lanzhou Petrochemical 100000 t/a nitrile unit operates normally; The 30000 t/a nitrile rubber plant of Nanjing Jinpu Insa Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. is in normal production; The 30000t/a nitrile rubber plant of Arantai Rubber operates normally; Normal production of Zhenjiang Nandi 50000 t/a nitrile rubber plant; Ningbo Shunze 65000 t/a unit operates normally.

Recently, the downstream rubber products industry continued to operate at a low level, the purchase of nitrile rubber was sluggish, the market turnover was light, and the demand for nitrile rubber was insufficient.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that at present, Nandi’s 50000 t/a NBR plant has been shut down for maintenance for about two weeks, slightly easing the pressure on the supply side of some NBR brands. However, the supply side of NBR is still relatively loose as a whole. In addition to weak demand, it is expected that NBR will continue to bottom out in the short term.