The price of acetic anhydride fell after the holiday

According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell after the holiday. As of January 6, the price of acetic anhydride was 5350 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from 5412.50 yuan/ton on January 1. After the holiday, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell.

The price of acetic acid fell after the holiday

As can be seen from the chart of acetic acid price trend of the business community, as of January 6, the price of acetic acid was 2912.50 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the price of 2950 yuan/ton on January 1. Downstream demand is low, acetic acid enterprises are operating at a low level, and the industry’s trading volume is weak. After the festival, the price of acetic acid fluctuates and falls, the cost of acetic anhydride falls, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increases.

The price of methanol rose first and then fell after the holiday

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business community, as of January 6, the methanol price was 2668.33 yuan/ton, down 1.11% from the methanol price of 2698.33 yuan/ton on January 1. After the holiday, the price of methanol rose first and then fell, the cost support of acetic anhydride weakened, the demand was weak, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride was great.

Future prospects

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of the Business Agency, the methanol price and acetic acid price fluctuated and fell after the holiday, and the cost of acetic anhydride fell; The downstream demand for acetic anhydride remained weak, and the downward pressure on the price of acetic anhydride increased. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride fell and the demand remained weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in shock.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the Business Agency, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of January 6, the spot nickel quotation was 216683.33 yuan/ton, down 8.24% from the beginning of the week and up 40.86% year on year.

Weekly rise and fall chart of nickel

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the Business News Agency, the nickel price has risen by 8% and fallen by 4% in the past 12 weeks, and the nickel price has fallen sharply after the recent strength.

Nickel industry chain

On the macro level, the latest interest rate minutes of the Federal Reserve emphasized the determination to fight inflation, and intensified the market’s concern about the expectation of the US long-term recession.

Supply: At present, Qingshan has commissioned a new energy enterprise in Hubei to produce electrodeposited nickel products. The preliminary design capacity is 1500 tons per month, and part of the volume will be released in January. From the perspective of production, after the new production capacity is put into operation, the contribution to the marginal growth of domestic refined nickel production in 2023 may reach 18000 metal tons, and after the process is mature, it is also possible to expand the capacity. Qingshan’s monthly production capacity of 1500 tons of nickel electrowinning project products have been successfully produced. In January, some of the volume will be released, and the nickel price will be under pressure.

Demand: the growth of new energy demand slowed down, and the price of battery grade nickel sulfate continued to fall. The demand for nickel decreased due to the decline of stainless steel production scheduling.

To sum up, in the first quarter, it is expected that the pure nickel fundamentals will remain tight, and the production capacity of Qingshan 1500 tons/month electrowinning nickel project is expected to gradually release, and the short-term output volume may be limited, which is difficult to alleviate the contradiction between the current tight pure nickel and low inventory. At present, downstream demand is weakening, and nickel price is expected to be weak.

This week (December 30 to January 6), the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was slightly reduced. The spot market price in East China was 17350 yuan/ton at the end of last week and 17300 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 50 yuan/ton, down 0.29%.

In terms of manganese ore: the confidence of manganese ore market continued to rise this week, the ore price rose significantly, the overall price rose 1-2 yuan/ton, and the enthusiasm of inquiry for oxide ore was obvious, so we took the initiative to stock. Due to the mine accident in Gabon, the arrival and shipment were all affected. The market said that Gabon’s resources were scarce in the future, which led to the price of oxidized ore to continue to rise. Gabon’s 44-45 yuan/tonne, Australia’s 47-48 yuan/tonne, South Africa’s mines were also driven by the market atmosphere, and the price of semi-carbonic acid was increased by 36-36.5 yuan/tonne. South Africa’s low-grade high-speed railway resources were less, and the market carried out collective price adjustment. The price of the price was chaotic and went up to 34.5-35.5 yuan/tonne, and the deal was gradually followed up.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of price trend K-line to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates: rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart, it can be seen that since March 2022, electrolytic manganese has continued to decline, the price of electrolytic manganese has continued to stabilize temporarily after a slight rise at the end of August, the price has recovered slightly since the end of September, the price has remained stable for a long time since October, fluctuated slightly in November, and decreased slightly after December.

The electrolytic manganese market continued to decline this week. The domestic mainstream price was 15500-15700 yuan/ton, down 100-200 yuan/ton from last week. The market was bearish and the trading volume was slightly cold. In terms of supply, the long-term operating rate of manganese is between 50% and 60%, and the supply is acceptable. The ex-factory price of domestic mainstream manufacturers is around 15600-15700 yuan/ton, and the manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price. Downstream demand is approaching the end of the year, and downstream winter storage is basically coming to an end. The market mentality is generally stable, and the steel bidding is generally in general performance. The price falls, affecting the market mentality. In general, the current electrolytic manganese market has maintained a weak operation as a whole. Under the influence of weak demand, it is expected to maintain a stable, medium and weak operation in the short term. The market is waiting for the guidance of steel bidding.

This week, the domestic silicon and manganese spot market performed generally, with the price rising and falling alternately, the futures fell in the middle of the week, the steel bidding pricing was delayed, and the market confidence was slightly insufficient. The mainstream price fell back to 7250-7300 yuan/ton. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average market price of silicon and manganese in Ningxia (the specification is FeMN68Si18) on January 6 was 7241 yuan/ton, down 0.46% compared with that before the festival.

From December 30, 2022 to January 6, 2023, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi was lowered. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6155 yuan/ton last weekend and 5867.5 yuan/ton this weekend, down 4.67%.

On January 5, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 202.33, down 9.91 points from yesterday, down 12.59% from the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and up 329.12% from the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The downstream deep processing industry has weakened as a whole, and has cracked down on the coal tar market. Recently, the coking enterprises have started to work slightly, the tar supply has improved slightly, and the tar bidding price has declined in the past two weeks.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market rose for 12 consecutive weeks. Only after a small price correction in one week, the price continued to rise, and fell in December.

In terms of the industrial chain, most commodity prices in the downstream deep processing industry fell this week, including coal tar pitch prices, industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil and other commodity prices. With the price of raw tar declining for several consecutive weeks, the profit of the deep processing industry has recovered, and the current operating rate is generally stable.

The coal tar market continued to decline broadly this week, with a decline range of about 150-300 yuan/ton this week. In some areas where the previous decline was not obvious, there was a lot of additional decline this week. The mainstream price in Shandong is 6100 yuan/ton, Hebei 5900-6000 yuan/ton, Henan 6050 yuan/ton, and Shanxi 5750-5900 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, coking enterprises continued to increase production this week, with slightly loose tar supply and weak overall mentality of coking enterprises. In terms of demand, the downstream deep processing industry fell collectively this week, with a stronger mentality of suppressing raw materials. Without downstream support, tar prices fell significantly. On the whole, negative factors in the tar market are dominant at present. Under the expectation of loose supply, tar prices in the future will remain weak.

According to the monitoring of the business community, in December, the domestic adipic acid market bottomed out and rebounded, mainly because of the good support from the supply side. At the end of the month, the market price range of adipic acid was 9800-10000 yuan/ton. Adipic acid increased by 3.73% throughout the month.

Adipic acid industry chain

Adipic acid industry chain showed a weak performance this month, with the exception of adipic acid, upstream and downstream were mainly down. Pure benzene is weak, with a small range of rise and fall. The performance of downstream PA66 is relatively weak, with a significant decline of -6.45%. The terminal demand is weak, and the industrial chain is resonant.

Supply side

From the perspective of market supply, the rebound of adipic acid in this month was mainly driven by tight supply. The monthly operating rate of enterprises remained low, about 50%. In the month, Tianli Hi Tech reduced the load of its devices, Zhonghao added a set of devices to the maintenance camp, and in addition, a large number of maintenance devices had not been returned to work in the early stage, the operating rate was lower than that in November, the enterprise’s inventory was low, and the supply was slightly tight. The supplier set the price to push the market, and the collection price and listing price of large factories were generally increased by 500 yuan/ton.

Cost side

On the cost side, crude oil maintained a range shock trend, while pure benzene showed a weak trend, with weak support on the cost side. This month, the domestic supply of pure benzene is abundant, the import is also high, and the port inventory is high. Downstream demand is relatively low, procurement is still sluggish, and the pattern of market oversupply has not changed. At the end of the month, the price of East China pure benzene was between 6400-6500 yuan/ton.

Demand side

The downstream demand of adipic acid is weak, and the rigid demand is the main demand. Take the downstream PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business community, the downstream PA66 declined significantly in December, at -6.45%. In terms of supply, the operating rate of PA66 remained around 65%, and the market supply was abundant. Weak demand is hard to change. This month, the terminal enterprises just need to follow up on the purchase of goods, and the enthusiasm for downstream goods preparation is not high. The psychological impact of buying up but not buying down, and the treatment of price reduction is also relatively cautious, and the merchants’ shipment is not smooth. As of the end of the month, the market price of PA66 was 21800 yuan/ton.

Future outlook

The business community believes that, in the short term, the cost may be supported by the strong operation of crude oil or the promotion of pure benzene out of the decline in the later period under the geopolitical tension. The positive supply side will gradually highlight, the supply will continue to be tight, the inventory will be low, and the manufacturer may continue to push the price, so the adipic acid market still has room for rebound. However, the demand side or the constraint factor is relatively slow to follow up at present. Under the supply and demand game situation, adipic acid or recent shocks are mainly strong.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on December 30 was 109.93, unchanged from yesterday, 22.93% lower than the peak of 142.64 points (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and 30.37% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Spot goods: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly in December, with a main report of 2027.50 yuan/ton on the first day and a small increase on the 30th. At present, the country is greatly affected by the short-term policy of public health events. The water treatment enterprises in Gongyi, Henan Province have sufficient inventory. Affected by the partial commencement of downstream enterprises, the reduction of orders compared with the early stage and the recent substantial weakening of logistics and transportation capacity, the enterprises do not ship much; The market of raw hydrochloric acid has remained stable at about 174 yuan/ton so far this month, with unfavorable support. To sum up, it is expected that the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride before and after the year will be mainly stable and slightly weak.

Raw hydrochloric acid: According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic hydrochloric acid market continued to be stable in December. On the first day, the market reported 178 yuan/ton, which has remained stable since the seventh day, when it reported 174 yuan/ton. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. However, the downstream ammonium chloride market is at a high stage, and the downstream support is relatively strong. According to the analysis, the market price of hydrochloric acid in late December may fluctuate in a narrow range.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business agency, domestic LNG rose first and then fell in December. The cost of the liquid plant increased due to the rise of feed gas price. The domestic weather is cool, and the demand for natural gas is getting warmer. In the first half of December, the domestic LNG price rose sharply from 4900 yuan/ton on the first day, and exceeded 8000 yuan/ton on the 14th; In the second half of the month, the market closed at 6060 yuan/ton on the 30th. The situation of oversupply in the market is obvious. There is a lack of good support in the market, and the downstream demand support is weak. The market is falling back. It is expected that the market price of LNG will decline mainly in the short term.

Future forecast: after the recent public health event policy was liberalized, the population’s immunity to infection increased in the short term, the manufacturers started work locally, the inventory was sufficient, the demand continued to weaken, and the orders continued to shrink. In addition, near the New Year’s Day and the New Year holiday next month, some manufacturers and downstream have been off. It is expected that the future market will remain stable and weak.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, as of December 29, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was RMB 5713.33/ton, down 386.67/ton, or 6.34%, compared with December 1, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was RMB 6100/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that since December (12.1-12.29), the domestic diethylene glycol price has declined from high to low, and the market is weak. This month, the market showed strong supply and weak demand. Under the weak demand expectation, the overall market mentality was not good. In addition, the early price rose to a high level in the year, and the market center of gravity fell from a high level. The international crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, and the cost support was fair. In Jiangsu, the arrival of goods at the port is concentrated, and the inventory has increased (as of December 19, the inventory of East China Port was 25800 tons, up 3800 tons, or 17.27%, compared with 22000 tons on November 28). The domestic new units have increased production, and the Maoming First Unit has restarted. The production supply has increased slightly, and the supply shortage has eased. Downstream UPR started at a low level, and the polyester industry started to decline, leading to weak demand expectations, general market transactions, increasing wait-and-see sentiment, and the delivery of goods in the reservoir area fell back. Under the influence of multiple factors, the market sentiment has changed from strong to weak, the focus of market negotiation has kept falling, the price has declined broadly, the mentality of the industry has become cautious, the pace of market trading and investment has slowed down, and most of the goods are shipped along with the line. As of December 29, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 5400-5500 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of on-site trading and investment was general, and the actual orders were mainly negotiated according to the quantity. On December 28, the shipment volume of the Yangtze River Reservoir Area was 722 tons.

In the future, in terms of supply, foreign equipment maintenance and subsequent import to the port are limited, so there is a tight supply expectation; In terms of demand, due to the widespread spread of the epidemic, downstream manufacturers started to decline and purchased on demand, which is also reflected in the recent number of shipments from the terminal, and the overall demand is expected to be weak. Diethylene glycol analysts from the business community believe that the market lacks clear information guidance in the near future, and the market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, so it may be difficult for prices to fluctuate significantly. The short-term domestic diethylene glycol market maintains a range shock trend. Continue to pay attention to inventory and demand follow-up.

This week, the spot tin market price (12.16-12.23) rose in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 191210 yuan/ton last weekend and 196910 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 2.98%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the figure above that tin prices will rise continuously after November 2022 due to macro factors.

Futures market situation this week

Variety/ Closing price/ Compared with the same period last week/ Inventory (ton)/ Change in inventory compared with last week (t)

Shanghai Wuxi/ 196550 yuan/ton/+ 5440 yuan/ton/ 4901./-995

London tin/ US $23940/ton/+ 340 USD/ton/ 2855./-35

In terms of futures market, Shanghai and Wuxi saw strong shocks this week, with a weekly rise of about 2.9%. On Wednesday, the news that the central bank strengthened the implementation of prudent monetary policy boosted the market, and Shanghai Tin rose.

In terms of the spot market, the overall operation was at a high level this week. At present, the manufacturer’s quotation is more cautious, and some enterprises have a strong price mentality. Affected by higher prices, the overall market trading is average. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic market as a whole has not changed much, which still shows loose supply and weak demand. Recently, the output of the refinery has increased slightly, and the market supply is loose. At present, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual market demand has little change. Although the holiday is approaching, the goods preparation before the holiday is average. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

On December 25, the non-ferrous index stood at 1200, unchanged from yesterday, 21.98% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1538 (2021-10-18), and 97.69% higher than the lowest point of 607 on November 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 15 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 51st week of 2022 (12.19-12.23), with nickel (3.25%), dysprosium (2.91%) and silver (2.74%) in the top three. There were five kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and the top three products with a decline were zinc (-2.65%), metal silicon (-1.48%) and electrolytic manganese (-0.57%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.7%.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic BDO market has warmed up due to the favorable support of multi unit maintenance and factory bidding premium. From December 9 to 16, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers at the beginning of the week was 9436 yuan/ton, and at the weekend was 9590 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price rose 1.63%, fell 14.37% month on month, and fell 69.06% year on year. The manufacturer has a strong intention to support the market, but the downstream industry is mainly wait-and-see, maintaining contract follow-up, just needing small spot purchase, and the focus of delivery and investment is weak.

On the cost side, raw calcium carbide: the business community monitored that the domestic calcium carbide price fell by a narrow margin, with the price at the beginning of the week at 3766 yuan/ton, and at the weekend at 3701 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.73%. In terms of methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports rose first and then fell in a narrow range, 2680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 2655 yuan/ton at the weekend, and the price fell by 0.90% during the cycle. In the near future, there are few positive factors in the carbide and methanol markets, and the BDO cost support is weak.

On the supply side, the overall commencement of the industry dropped to less than 70%, the spot supply in the market was reduced, and the production enterprises were reluctant to sell, which boosted the factory’s auction price to 9550 yuan/ton. BDO supply level is obviously favorable.

On the demand side, the downstream opening rate of the terminal declined, and the market of several downstream products was weak and volatile, maintaining the small orders just needed to follow up and negotiate prices. The operating rate of downstream industries, such as PTMEG, PBT and TPU, remained at about 60%, and the overall incentive to buy gas was limited. The overall change in BDO demand was slightly positive.

The future forecast shows that the overall supply of the domestic BDO market has not changed much in the short term, but the industry is still in a loss state, and the manufacturers’ price keeping mentality continues. The downstream industry maintains contract procurement, and resists high prices when the cost transmission is not smooth. Business agency BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will be dominated by sideways consolidation.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has risen recently. On the 12th, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8033.33 yuan/ton, and on the 16th, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8116.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04%. The price fell 3.23% year on year.

styrene

Recently, the styrene market price has risen. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has been dominated by shocks, and this week the price has risen slightly. The market of pure benzene was consolidated, and the cost support was average. Although the downstream is just in demand, the purchase intention is good, which has certain support for the market. The port inventory may have a small drop expectation, which is good for the styrene market. The short-term styrene market is expected to be dominated by gains.

In terms of raw materials, the recent narrow amplitude shock of pure benzene has continued to weaken the fundamentals of pure benzene. The downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; During the week, the crude oil fell continuously, and the cost faced a negative impact on the pure benzene market; Downstream styrene grew slightly, boosting the pure benzene market. The cost is weak, and the fundamentals of the pure benzene market are poor. It is expected that the pure benzene will continue its weak operation in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external price trend, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream of styrene rose and fell at different levels. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 9933 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 9933 yuan/ton, which was stable. The cost support is on the high side, the tight situation of goods in some areas continues, the supply of permeable benzene goods is slightly loose, and the traders tend to be cautious in trading. The mainstream price of GPPS in East China market is 8900-10800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS is 10050-11200 yuan/ton.

Recently, EPS price fluctuated slightly. Overall transaction weakened month on month. The average price of EPS ordinary materials is 10460 yuan/ton. The buying enthusiasm is not high. The EPS market price is weak. The manufacturer maintains a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand is sluggish.

Recently, the domestic ABS market is in a weak stalemate, and the price rises and falls are mutual. The load of ABS industry has risen at a high level. At present, the plant is almost in full operation, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. Due to the supply pressure and the drag of raw material side, the factory price is difficult to increase.

International oil prices fell, and cost support was poor. In December, news of styrene unit restart increased, and domestic supply was expected to increase. The short-term styrene market is expected to fall mainly.