This week, the decline in the domestic propane market increased, with a significant decline in the Shandong market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong on May 8th was 4933 yuan/ton, and on May 21st it was 4680 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 5.12%, a decrease of 27.77% compared to the same period last year.

As of May 12th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ May 12th

East China region/ 4700-5200 yuan/ton

North China region/ 4650-4850 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 4550-4600 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 4800-5200 yuan/ton

This week (5.8-5.12), the atmosphere of the propane market further declined, with factories selling out and downstream demand not significantly improving. During the week, crude oil fell multiple times, suppressing market sentiment, while low port supply further impacted the high price propane market. Downstream demand is lower than expected, the market trading atmosphere is difficult to improve, on-site inventory is high, and factories are reducing prices and discharging inventory.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in May, and the contract price of propane remained unchanged compared to the previous month. Butane slightly increased, with propane at $555 per ton, which remained stable compared to the previous month; Butane is $555 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, in the off-season of demand, there is an expectation of an increase in port supply, highlighting the pressure on the supply side. It is expected that the propane market will be weak and downward in the short term.

The domestic phenol market is operating weakly, with Sinopec’s North China phenol quotation lowered by 100 yuan/ton and executed at 7500 yuan/ton, while Sinopec’s East China phenol quotation remained stable at 7500 yuan/ton. According to the market analysis system of Business Society, the negotiated price of phenol in East China has dropped from 7400 yuan/ton.

Market Trends of Phenol in Major Regions of China

The downward trend in the phenol market is mainly due to the lack of discussion atmosphere in the market. After stocking up for a period before the holiday, there was a lack of interest in the terminal market after the holiday, resulting in increased pressure on traders to hold goods and sell at a lower price. As a result, the market center of gravity fell and factories took advantage of the trend and lowered.

The quotation of phenol in various markets across the country on May 10th is as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily fluctuations

East China region/ 7400./ -100

Shandong region/ 7400./ -100

Surrounding areas of Yanshan/. 7400./-100

South China region/ 8000/. -50

Upstream pure benzene has been discussed to increase slightly at 7050 yuan/ton, but cost support is limited. After the downstream bisphenol A holiday, the atmosphere was light, and the market experienced a narrow decline. The negotiations were between 9750 and 9850 yuan/ton, but it was difficult for phenol to have any positive effects in the short term. The market was weak and adjusted, and it is expected that the phenol market negotiation price will be between 7350 and 7450 yuan/ton today.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. This week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1186.67 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week. The current price has decreased by 13.17% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

Recently, the price of formaldehyde market in Shandong has fluctuated and consolidated. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent formaldehyde market mainly fluctuates slightly, and the market is stable this week. As of May 5, the mainstream market value price in Shandong was 1150-1280 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol fell weakly, and the market trading sentiment was average. Formaldehyde manufacturers stabilized their shipments, and the market was relatively stable.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is fluctuating and declining, with the raw material coal market mainly on a wait-and-see basis. The cost side lacks positive support, and the spot buying performance is weak, leading to a decline in the methanol market. The methanol market in the southwest region has declined, with some mainstream enterprises in Sichuan and Chongqing discussing exports at around 2300-2400 yuan/ton; The focus of some trade negotiations in Chengdu is around 2460-2520 yuan/ton. The methanol market in the Lianghu region has declined, with some enterprises in Hubei Province negotiating around 2555 to 2570 yuan/ton for mainstream reference; Some traders in Hunan offer around 2660-2700 yuan/ton for reference.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and declining, with poor cost support. Downstream sheet factories have had poor resumption of work due to rainy weather. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that formaldehyde prices in Shandong will mainly fluctuate and fall in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of Business Society, the overall price of bromine was weak in April. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of bromine was 26000 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average market price of bromine was 25700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.15% and a year-on-year decrease of 53.61%. On April 27th, the bromine commodity index was 90.18, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.22% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 53.05% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

2、 Market analysis

The overall price of bromine is weak this month. This month, the price of bromine is weak, and there has been no significant increase in downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries. Demand is clearly bleak, and bromine companies are experiencing poor shipments. The production of bromine is sufficient, and the operators are pessimistic. Bromine manufacturers are interested in stabilizing prices, and their offers are mostly stable. And there are imported bromine supplements, bromine prices are not hot and weak, mainly consolidating the market.

Regarding sulfur: The price of sulfur decreased in April. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1066.67 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average market price was 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 79.93%. On site inquiries are average, enterprises are actively shipping, market transaction prices are low, downstream operations are weak, and follow-up to market purchases is average. Sulfur enterprises have poor shipments, and operators have a pessimistic mentality. The sulfur market has been sorted and operated.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent price trend of bromine has been weak this month, with general support from downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries, and a decline in upstream sulfur prices. Bromine companies’ shipments are relatively average. Bromine enterprises have sufficient inventory and are interested in stabilizing prices. The supply and demand game has led to a wait-and-see sentiment in the industry. Overall, it is expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak and the operating market will be consolidated, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly in April. The price of hydrochloric acid increased from 198.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 207.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 9 yuan/ton or 4.55%. At the end of the month, prices decreased by 33.23% year-on-year.

On April 26th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 53.58, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 61.14% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 198.00% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market has seen both ups and downs this month, with manufacturers having low inventory.

Cost side: Liquid chlorine price drops

From a cost perspective, the liquid chlorine market slightly declined in April. The price of liquid chlorine has dropped from 350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 100 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support.

Demand side: Downstream demand is weak

In April, the market price of ammonium chloride fell sharply, from 1165.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 905.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 22.32%, and the price at the end of the month fell 37.37% year on year. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly. The market price fell from 1871.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1800.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 3.81%, and the price at the end of the month fell by 22.04% year on year. The downstream market situation has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weak enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early May, the hydrochloric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and declines. The upstream liquid chlorine market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets have significantly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market for hydrochloric acid may experience slight fluctuations and declines.

According to data monitoring from Business Society, the acrylonitrile market slightly declined in April. As of April 26th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.98% from the 10050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene fluctuates narrowly, and the cost of acrylonitrile is relatively weak; Downstream ABS and polyacrylamide markets, with ABS operating slightly lower and slightly weaker support for acrylonitrile compared to the previous period; The fundamentals are not significantly positive, while the price of acrylonitrile is weak and slightly lower.

As of late April, the domestic operating rate of acrylonitrile remained around 7.7%, and the pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile remained high. Starting from the beginning of this month, the acrylonitrile unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been upgraded to full load operation, and the Koluer acrylonitrile unit has been restarted and started operation, gradually reaching 50% load operation

In April, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated narrowly, and the cost of acrylonitrile was relatively weak. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of April 26th, the domestic propylene price was at 7130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% from 7138 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a low point of 6986 yuan/ton and a high point of 7400 yuan/ton during the cycle.

In April, the downstream market price declined slightly, and the support for acrylonitrile was weak. Downstream ABS prices have fallen, with industry device starts slightly dropping to around 8.8%, slightly weakening support for acrylonitrile; The domestic production of nitrile rubber is temporarily stable, but the support for acrylonitrile is relatively weak. The price of polyacrylamide continues to decline, providing weak support for acrylonitrile.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that on the one hand, the cost of acrylonitrile fluctuates slightly at a low level, and on the other hand, the supply and demand of acrylonitrile are currently deadlocked; It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will weaken and consolidate in the later stage.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market continued to decline this week, and spot prices of various brands were generally lowered. As of April 21, the reference quotation for the PC sample enterprises of the Business Society was around 15616.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.58% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the recent decline in the bisphenol A market has led to a narrow rebound. As the holiday season approaches, the enthusiasm for entering the downstream epoxy resin market has increased, and the market negotiation atmosphere has improved. Holders have a stable mentality, and their prices are firm. It is expected that the market situation will continue to rise.

In terms of supply: The overall operating rate of domestic PC this week is close to 70%, with a narrow increase compared to the previous period. The PC industry is still operating at high loads and has ample supply. In addition, there have been some recent delays in maintenance plans and the production of new devices. Overall, the benefits of reducing losses in the early stage and increasing supply in the later stage have been fully realized, resulting in poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand: Recently, downstream PC buyers have just needed to maintain production, and the business owners have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. The auction situation also fell short of expectations, with prices falling. At present, the starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, and the actual stocking operation has not improved, with light on-site trading. Traders’ mentality has weakened, and their offers are generally in line with the market.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the PC market fell, with a slight rebound in the upstream bisphenol A market after a decline, providing average support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants is deadlocked. The follow-up on the demand side has not improved, and the pressure on the supply side remains high. It is expected that the PC market will take some time to overcome the supply-demand contradiction and may continue to decline.

This week (4.17-23), the domestic ethyl acetate market rose steadily, and there was little room for market prices to rise or fall. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the increase of ethyl acetate was 0.49. The overall performance of the market remains stable, with a weak trading atmosphere.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market has maintained a stable trend recently. The market trading atmosphere is light, with downstream procurement mainly focused on demand. The trading ranges of ethyl esters in East China, Central China, and South China are all within the 50 yuan range. Most major manufacturers’ quotations have stabilized this week, while some manufacturers in Hebei, Anhui, and Jiangsu regions have slightly increased their prices, ranging from 50 to 100 yuan/ton. Shandong’s major manufacturers are bidding for shipments, and the bidding effect is average. The bidding starting price is not adjusted, and overall shipments remain at a normal level. The prices of raw materials and acetic acid have rebounded this week, with an increase of 1.65%. The cost side has slightly improved, and may continue to be transmitted to the terminal in the future. Boost downstream ethyl ester to maintain a strong trend.

Future forecast: Currently, the supply and demand of ethyl acetate are basically balanced, and in the event that short-term fundamentals are difficult to improve, it is expected that the range adjustment will continue next week. It is recommended to pay attention to the operation status of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6700-6900 yuan/ton.

Weak consolidation of plasticizer DOP this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 23, the DOP price was 9875.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% compared to the DOP price of 9934.17 yuan/ton on April 16. Plasticizer manufacturers are operating at a low and stable level, with sufficient supply in the plasticizer market. Downstream purchases are in urgent need, and customers have average purchasing enthusiasm. The market transaction atmosphere is cold, and the DOP market is weak and consolidating this week.

Market situation of raw material products

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 23, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61% compared to the price of 8562.50 yuan/ton on April 16. The price of ortho benzene has stabilized, the cost of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, and the support for upward growth has weakened. Downstream demand is poor, and the market for phthalic anhydride has remained stagnant this week. In the future, the upward momentum of phthalic anhydride prices has weakened, and downward pressure has increased.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 23, the price of isooctanol was 9142.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% compared to the price of isooctanol on April 16, which was 9142.86 yuan/ton. This week, the low starting point of isooctanol enterprises has temporarily stabilized, the supply of isooctanol has decreased, and the demand side plasticizer enterprises have temporarily stabilized. In the future, isooctanol will mainly experience weak fluctuations and consolidation.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the prices of raw materials for plasticizer DOP, phthalic anhydride and isooctanol, have fluctuated and fallen, resulting in a decrease in DOP costs and increased downward pressure on DOP. On the demand side, the downstream demand market is weak, and downstream enterprises of plasticizers have poor purchasing enthusiasm. Overall, the demand for cost reduction is weak, and the plasticizer market is weak and consolidating.

This week (April 7 to April 14), the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese market dropped slightly, and the market atmosphere was weak. The spot market price in East China was 16350 yuan/ton last weekend and 16300 yuan/ton this weekend, down 0.31%.

In terms of manganese ore: The overall performance of the manganese ore market is relatively weak. Although the transaction situation at Tianjin Port has improved, the market situation is still in a weak state, and prices have also shown a certain downward trend, mainly concentrated in oxidized ore. Compared to South Africa, prices are relatively stable, but there are also a few cases of selling at low prices. Inquiries in Qinzhou Port have weakened, the manufacturer’s operating rate is low, the price is significantly lower than the market price, and it is difficult to clinch a deal. Traders’ willingness to voluntarily offer has decreased, and a single negotiation is needed. As of April 14th, the mainstream transaction of semi carbonated carbon in Tianjin Port is around 33 yuan/ton, with Australian dollars ranging from 43 to 44 yuan/ton, Gabon’s from 38.5 to 39 yuan/ton, and South African high-speed rail at around 31.5 yuan/ton; The quotation for semi carbonic acid in Qinzhou Port is 33.5-34 yuan/ton, the price for Australia is 43.5-44 yuan/ton, and the price for Gabon is 39.5-40 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have slightly decreased since December 2022, and have continued to decline after temporarily stabilizing in January. As of now, electrolytic manganese has been declining for four consecutive months.

The price of European strategic small metal manganese has slightly decreased this week, reaching $2260/ton on April 14th, with a decrease of $50/ton during the cycle. Recently, the market negotiation atmosphere has been limited, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

The overall performance of the electrolytic manganese market this week is weak, with mainstream domestic prices ranging from 14700 to 14900 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged from last week. In terms of supply, some enterprises in the main production areas have recently ceased production, and supply is expected to be slightly tight. There have been few recent changes in demand, but after the release of information on Puhang’s recent bidding, the market has received high attention and is waiting for the final bidding results to be announced. Overall, supported by tight supply, smelters have shown a slight upward trend in prices recently, and the bearish atmosphere in the market has gradually decreased. However, actual transactions are still limited, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in trading. The market is relatively cold, with FOB prices ranging from $2100 to $2140 per ton, slightly increasing. In the future, it is expected that the weak and stable operation will be the main focus, and more guidance on steel bidding prices will be awaited.

The inquiry for raw material manganese ore is poor, with cold transactions and two rounds of coke reduction. The market atmosphere is still slightly weak. Although the bidding price of Hegang has been determined and the market is clear, which has prompted a slight increase in prices, the overall demand for silicon and manganese is still poor and cannot change the sluggish situation of silicon and manganese. According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6900-7050 yuan/ton on April 14th, with an average market price of 7008 yuan/ton.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in January 2023 was approximately 32683.5 tons, an increase of 31.1% compared to December. In January 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was approximately 2200.5 tons, a decrease of approximately 56.02% compared to December.