According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic rare earth market price index has slightly increased, while the domestic heavy rare earth market has slightly increased. On June 8, the rare earth index was 476 points, a decrease of 52.73% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 75.65% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The domestic prices of Dysprosium(III) oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, terbium oxide and metal terbium rose slightly. As of September 9, the price of Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.115 million yuan/ton, up 1.68% this week; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.07 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.98% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.68 million yuan/ton, with a stable price trend; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.3 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 10.45 million yuan/ton.

This week, the heavy rare earth market rebounded slightly, with an increase in recent inquiries and a tightening of spot supply. Affected by a slight increase in demand, the domestic heavy rare earth market price has slightly increased. The domestic heavy rare earth market is relatively active in terms of inquiry and quotation, with a slight increase in trading volume. However, downstream demand is still weak, metal factory orders are relatively scarce, and magnetic material factories mainly consume existing inventory. In addition, with an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, the supply of rare earth is sufficient, and the pessimism of the rare earth market remains strong.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 713000 and 717000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 60.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.05 million and 2.94 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 45.1% and 46.8%, and a market share of 27.7%. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data in May was 4576 tons; From January to May 2023, a total of 20987.2 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. China’s rare earth commodity exports decreased, which correspondingly suppressed the price increase in the domestic medium and heavy rare earth market.

Future forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, and downstream demand has not changed much. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth market will fluctuate and rise mainly in the short term. In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demand such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (June 5th): 165.00 yuan/ton

On June 5, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly, 10 yuan/ton lower than that on June 2, with a decrease of 5.71%, 48.44% year-on-year. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream market for polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened.

The domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate slightly in the future, with an average market price of around 150 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, from May 29 to June 2, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 7140 yuan/ton to 6612 yuan/ton, a 7.39% decline in the cycle, 25.30% month on month, 41.73% year-on-year. Part of the maintenance equipment has been restored, and production has increased. At the same time, imported cargo has gradually arrived at the port, putting pressure on the supply side of the market. Some downstream industries have reduced their burden, and the demand side has significantly dragged down the inventory pressure of butadiene suppliers. With the continuous decline of Sinopec prices, the domestic butadiene market has rapidly declined.

Cost and crude oil: the market is worried about whether the US Congress will pass the US debt ceiling agreement, overlapping the internal differences of oil producing countries OEPC+, and the oil market is under pressure. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil for Business Society was 72.60 US dollars per barrel, while the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 68.09 US dollars per barrel. In terms of naphtha, the cost and demand are weak, with terminal restructuring and weak demand for ethylene. Market trading is limited, and transactions are light. The naphtha market is weak and organized. On June 2, the benchmark price for naphtha in Shangshang Society was 7589.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of butadiene is bearish.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec East China Sales Company has reduced the price of butadiene by 1100 yuan/ton, with the latest listed price at 6400 yuan/ton. The restart of Liaoyang Petrochemical and Shenhua Ningxia coal plants, coupled with the continuous arrival of imported cargo at ports, has put pressure on the market supply side. Short term bearish impact on butadiene supply side.

On the demand side, dragged by cost and demand side bearish factors, the downstream synthetic rubber market is weak and declining, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The synchronous downtrend of upstream and downstream products affects the industrial chain profits, making it difficult to effectively move down, and it is difficult to find demand support in the butadiene market. The demand for butadiene is weak.

On June 1st, the closing price of butadiene in Asia was lowered: FOB South Korea was quoted at $725-735 per ton, a decrease of $40 per ton; China CFR reported a decrease of $40 per ton from $775 to $785 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $545-555 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 675-685 euros per ton.

In the future market forecast, due to the impact of terminal demand, some downstream industries will experience a decrease in burden, while domestic production and cargo supply are abundant. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of the domestic caprolactam market was 12683 yuan/ton on May 1, and 12410 yuan/ton on May 31. The price of the domestic caprolactam market fell 2.16% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of domestic caprolactam market fluctuated and fell this month. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to decline this month, resulting in insufficient cost support. The caprolactam market supply was relatively stable this month, and the supply and demand were relatively balanced. Downstream demand performance is insufficient, procurement is more cautious, and the market is mostly low price transactions. As of May 31, the settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam in May was 12840 yuan/ton, and the liquid products were of superior quality, which were accepted and withdrawn within six months.

The price of raw material pure benzene has been declining this month. On May 31st, the price was 6573 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.57% compared to 7433 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. This month, crude oil has declined significantly, resulting in a bearish cost outlook. The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in May. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. The downstream profit level is poor, and the market has a general interest in purchasing pure benzene, which is dragging down the demand side of pure benzene. This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 950 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton.

The domestic market of downstream PA6 has weakened this month, and spot prices have generally decreased. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. As of May 31, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.22% compared to the beginning of the month.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has been continuously lowered recently, and the cost side continues to be negative. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the on-site trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that caprolactam price will be weak in the short term, and the finishing operation will be dominated.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of May 30, 2023, the reference price of domestic butanone market was 7000 yuan/ton, which was 1316 yuan/ton lower than that of May 1, 2023 (8316 yuan/ton), with a decline of 15.83%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since May (5.1-5.30), the overall domestic butanone market has shown a weak decline, and the center of gravity of the butanone market has been continuously moving downwards since early May. In the first ten days of May, after the Labor Day, the downstream demand of the domestic butanone market as a whole was still average, and the demand side was insufficient to support butanone. The internal distributors of the butanone factory began to yield profits for shipment, and the price of butanone was reduced by 200-400 yuan/ton. As of May 15, the domestic market value price of butanone was around 7700-8300 yuan/ton.

In late May, the decline of the butanone market continued, the market center continued to move downward, the high level of the butanone raw material end market fell back, and the support for butanone cost was loose. The butanone market fell with the original broad range, the market price fell by 600-800 yuan/ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the butanone market widened. Towards the end of the month, the butanone market experienced slight fluctuations, with both ups and downs occurring on the market. Low end prices rose slightly, while high-end prices continued to yield profits for shipment, gradually narrowing the market price gap between high and low prices. As of May 30, the domestic butanone market price is around 6400-7200 yuan, and the price at the high end is around 7500 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the butanone market is light, and downstream demand is average. Stock preparation is still relatively cautious. The butanone data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in supply and demand news.

This week (5.22-5.29), the nitrile rubber market slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% from last Monday’s 15550 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have declined, while the cost of nitrile rubber has slightly declined; Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are still relatively flat. This week, some companies have adjusted the factory prices of nitrile rubber. At present, the mainstream market price of Lanhua nitrile 3305 in East China is 14900-15000 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 mainstream reported at 16900-17100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Sibul nitrile 3365 is 14400~14600 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported at 14800-15000 yuan/ton.

This week (5.22-5.29), the prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile decreased, while the cost of nitrile rubber decreased slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the price of butadiene was 7140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.12% from last Monday’s 7605 yuan/ton; As of May 29th, the price of acrylonitrile decreased by 3.38% from last Monday’s 9625 yuan/ton at 9300 yuan/ton.

At present, the supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable. However, there are rumors in the market that the Lanhua nitrile plant is scheduled for maintenance in mid June, and the supply of nitrile rubber may slightly tighten at that time.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current stable supply of nitrile rubber, coupled with the insignificant increase in downstream inquiries, is a weak trend in the nitrile rubber industry chain; In the later stage, if the nitrile rubber device is shut down for maintenance, the pressure on the nitrile rubber supply surface may be relieved to some extent, and there may be an upward trend for nitrile rubber in the later stage.

In May 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market slightly increased at the end of the month, with the average market price in East China reaching 82125 yuan/ton on the 1st and 82625 yuan/ton on the 26th, an increase of 0.61%.

On May 25th, the antimony commodity index was 115.02, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 5.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.46 points (2023 March 15), and an increase of 144.83% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently shown an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period after mid March, entered a downward channel in mid April, and the decline slowed down at the end of April. The trend remained stable in May, and prices entered an upward channel in June. After a brief period of stability in July, the market continued to decline again. After August, the market gradually stabilized and remained stable for 8 consecutive weeks. At the end of October, prices began to decline continuously. After December, prices continued to warm up. After three consecutive weeks of decline in mid to late March, the market fluctuated narrowly.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market remained temporarily stable in May, with a quotation of $12050/ton as of the 26th, which was unchanged from the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market in May followed the overall trend of antimony ingots and remained stable, with a slight monthly increase of 500 yuan/ton driven by the antimony ingot market. Market trading was slightly light, and downstream demand was generally weak.

In May, most of the domestic antimony ingot market remained temporarily stable, with narrow fluctuations within the month, but the amplitude was relatively small, with a monthly increase of about 500 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply and demand, the market has not changed much this month. Currently, the operation of smelters is relatively stable in terms of supply. However, antimony ingot manufacturers have a strong mentality of being hesitant to sell and selling at high prices recently, and there are few low-priced sources of goods in the market, which has also boosted some market sentiment. However, the actual transaction volume in the market is relatively low. The changes in downstream demand are limited, and the price of antimony oxide has slightly increased with the price of antimony ingots. However, the procurement of antimony ingots remains on demand. The sales situation of antimony oxide remains unchanged, and downstream demand has been performing poorly. At present, the overall wait-and-see attitude of the market in the future is relatively strong, and actual transactions are light. With the mentality of manufacturers supporting prices, it is expected that there will be a slight increase in prices in the future, but it is difficult to have a significant upward space in the absence of downstream support.

This week (5.12-5.19), the market for dichloromethane was weak and declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 19th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.67% from last Monday’s 2512 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has once again fallen, and the cost of dichloromethane has slightly decreased; Downstream refrigerant demand is weak, with weak support for dichloromethane. The supply side of methane chloride is still loose, and the supply side is weak. The price of dichloromethane has dropped.

This week (5.12-5.19), there was no significant fluctuation in the start of the methane chloride plant, and the overall supply pressure remained.

This week (5.12-5.19), the price of raw material methanol decreased, and the cost of dichloromethane slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 19th, the spot price of methanol was 2282 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% from last Monday’s 2327 yuan/ton.

The demand for downstream refrigerant R32 is weak, resulting in a low starting point and a weaker demand for dichloromethane. The pharmaceutical intermediate and diluent solvent industries have experienced slight fluctuations in production, and dichloromethane just needs support. There was no significant increase in the overall demand for dichloromethane.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data of Business Society, downstream demand for dichloromethane is currently slightly weaker than in the early stage. In addition, the supply of dichloromethane is loose, and due to the weak fundamentals of the industrial chain, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

This week (5.15-5.22), the market for chloroform slightly rose. According to data from Business Society, as of May 22, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2125 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.41% from last Monday’s 2075 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol has decreased, while the cost of trichloromethane has slightly decreased; The peak season for downstream refrigerants has come to an end, with weak demand for R22 and weak support for chloroform; The device is operating at a low level, and the pressure on the trichloromethane supply surface in the area is relatively low; Trichloromethane market slightly rose.

This week (5.15-5.22), the methane chloride plant started operating with slight fluctuations, while the Luxi plant was operating at a low level.

This week (5.15-5.22), the price of raw material methanol decreased, and the cost of chloroform slightly decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 22, the spot price of methanol was 2190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.21% from last Monday’s 2335 yuan/ton.

After entering May, the refrigeration market entered the end of the traditional peak season. The parking and maintenance prices of some downstream refrigerant R22 enterprises are temporarily stable, and in addition, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023. The support for trichloromethane will continue to be weak in the past peak season.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, although the supply side pressure in the trichloromethane region is currently relatively low, the demand side support is weak, coupled with a downward trend in cost, and it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be mainly weak in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of toluene has rebounded after falling this week. On May 15th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7160.00 yuan/ton, while on May 19th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54%.

In terms of crude oil, the US crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased. The EIA monthly report predicts that US crude oil production will increase by about 5% in 2023, and fuel demand will increase by 1%. It is expected that US crude oil production will increase by 5.1% to 12.53 million barrels per day in 2023, and the oil production of major shale oil producing areas in the US will rise to historical highs in June; The United States intends to purchase 3 million barrels of sour crude oil to supplement its strategic oil reserves that are about to run out.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports continued to decline in May due to the implementation of production reduction commitments; Canada’s wildfire has caused production disruptions and the OPEC+production reduction plan has begun to be implemented. It is expected that oil supply will significantly decline in May, and the prospect of supply tightening will boost the oil market; The US debt ceiling negotiation released an optimistic signal, and investors were less worried.

The possibility of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates in June has increased, and the US dollar has risen to its highest in two months. International crude oil closed lower on Thursday.

On May 19th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil for the trading company was 72.83 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.14% compared to the beginning of this month (76.78 US dollars per barrel); The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 76.96 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -4.20% compared to the beginning of this month (80.33 US dollars per barrel).

Downstream: In terms of TDI, domestic TDI prices have been falling all the way this week. Downstream demand support for TDI is weak, with strong resistance to high prices and poor enthusiasm for entering the market; The factory’s spot filling is slow, with a focus on supporting the market. Traders have a poor mentality, and the trading atmosphere on the market is cold. The trading market is pessimistic, with a lower trading center and a game between supply and demand in the market. The short-term TDI market is weak. On May 15th, the TDI benchmark price was 20166.67 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, the price was 18500.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.26%.

In terms of downstream px, the price of px has remained stable this week. The PX price was 8300 yuan/ton on May 15th and 8300 yuan/ton on May 19th, with no changes during the week. The supply and demand expectations for PX are weak, and the positive effects of PX are gradually weakening. Prices are under pressure, and the supply of goods on the market is normal, with good sales.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline rose and then fell this week. On May 15th, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8356.4 yuan/ton, and on May 19th, the price was 8398.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5%. The wholesale price of domestic gasoline is under pressure, and the market purchase and sales are light; The market news is gradually improving, but overall it still points towards being short, and downstream users have a cautious attitude towards stocking, which is difficult to change.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The support for OPEC+production reduction plan remains, and issues such as the debt ceiling crisis urgently need to be addressed. Demand expectations are improving, and there is still potential upward momentum for oil prices. There is uncertainty in the positive factors for toluene fundamentals, while downstream performance is weak and actual negotiations are average. Affected by the macro environment, it is expected that the price of toluene will show a slow upward trend next week.