Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea market price fell slightly this week, from 2868.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2638.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 8.02%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.77%. On July 17, the urea commodity index was 122.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.45% from 152.33, the highest point in the cycle (2022-05-15), and up 120.68% from 55.60, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is low

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3100 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2560 yuan / ton this weekend, down 240 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2510 yuan / ton this weekend, down 270 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;

According to the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall looked low this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 5766.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5798.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.55%, a year-on-year increase of 37.07% compared with the same period last year; Anthracite prices are temporarily stable. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 8800.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 7966.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 9.47%.

From the perspective of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is mainly rigid. Agricultural demand in some regions has been appropriately followed up. Compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories are generally started, and just need to purchase. The price of melamine fell slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. From the perspective of supply: some manufacturers overhaul, and the daily output of urea is less than 150000 tons.

The future price of urea may rebound at the bottom

In the middle and late July, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream cost of urea is generally supported. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is mainly rigid, the printing standard is stimulated, and the daily output of urea is at a low level. Recently, urea may rise in a narrow range.

The price of acetic anhydride fell violently this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply this week, and the market of acetic anhydride still fell. As of July 18, the price of acetic anhydride was 6550 yuan / ton, down 5.42% from 6925 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend. The price of acetic acid fell violently, the cost of raw materials fell, and the market of acetic anhydride fell this week.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell violently

 
It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of business club that the price of acetic acid fell this week and the market of acetic acid fell. As of July 18, the price of acetic acid was 3712.50 yuan / ton, down 4.81% from 3900 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend; The price of acetic acid fell violently, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the pressure of acetic anhydride fell was great.

Methanol prices fluctuated and fell

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club, the methanol price fell violently this week, and the methanol market fell violently. As of July 18, the methanol price was 2560 yuan / ton, down 2.66% from 2630 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend. This week, the price of methanol fell, the raw material cost of acetic anhydride fell, the rising momentum of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Outlook

Analysts of acetic anhydride data of business agency believe that the prices of raw materials methanol and acetic acid fell violently this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the price of acetic anhydride still fell; The price of raw materials continued to decline and gradually approached the cost line. Although acetic anhydride still had profit space, with the reduction of profit space, manufacturers’ enthusiasm for starting fell, and the supply of acetic acid industrial chain in the future was expected to be reduced and strengthened. In general, the decline in the price of acetic anhydride raw materials remained the same, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in shock. In the future, the supply of acetic acid industrial chain is expected to decrease, and the price of acetic anhydride has limited room to fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of baking soda was consolidated and operated this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2766.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2716.67 yuan / ton. The price fell by 1.81%, up 58.25% year-on-year. On July 14, the baking soda commodity index was 182.52, down 1.11 points from yesterday, down 22.61% from 235.84 points (2021-11-10), the highest point in the cycle, and up 106.77% from 88.27 points, the lowest point on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2020-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business news agency, the price of baking soda has been adjusted and operated, and the downstream market has been in general demand recently. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2550-3000 yuan / ton. Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of soda ash this week consolidated the operating market. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2850-3000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2850-3000 yuan / ton.

Demand: downstream, medicine, textile and food have general demand for baking soda. In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring data of the business society, the price of soda ash was consolidated and operated this week. The average market price of light soda ash was 2910 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2890 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 0.69%, up 51.59% over the same period last year. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textiles and food is generally in the near future. In a comprehensive view, the price of baking soda is short-term or weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3800.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 3850.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.32%, down 17.50% year-on-year from the same period last year. On July 10, the carbide commodity index was 100.87, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.47% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 81.78% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost support is weakened, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is insufficient

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly this week: the price of calcium carbide in oviganon this weekend was 3900 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The price of calcium carbide of Zoomlion in Inner Mongolia this weekend was 3850 yuan / ton, which increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia this weekend was 3800 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week.

Judging from the upstream raw material market, the market of Lanchan was temporarily stable this week. The market price of small and medium-sized materials of shenmulan charcoal is 1730-1800 yuan / ton; The market price of small and medium-sized materials of Fugu orchid charcoal is 1750-1800 yuan / ton; The market price of small and medium-sized materials of Yuyang orchid charcoal is about 1830 yuan / ton; The market price of small and medium-sized materials of Shizuishan orchid charcoal is 1850 yuan / ton; The market price of small and medium-sized materials of Ordos blue carbon is 1750 yuan / ton; The market price of Hohhot blue carbon small and medium-sized materials is 1750 yuan / ton; The market price of small and medium-sized materials of Hami blue carbon is 2200 yuan / ton; The market price of Changji blue carbon small and medium-sized materials is 1200-1780 yuan / ton.

Judging from the downstream market, the PVC market price fell slightly this week. The PVC market price this week fell from 7311.25 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 6850.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 6.31%, a year-on-year decrease of 23.68%. PVC market prices fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

The downstream market fell slightly, and the aftermarket of calcium carbide may fall in a narrow range

In mid July, the carbide market may fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened, the downstream PVC market fell slightly, the downstream demand is weakened, and the power of calcium carbide rise is insufficient. In the aftermarket, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fall in a narrow range in mid July.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 5483.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 5366.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.13%. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The ex factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this week is 4480 yuan / ton. On July 10, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 141.23, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.43% from the highest point of 144.74 in the cycle (2022-06-21), and up 46.03% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this week: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi offered 5400 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell 150 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou offered 5400 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5100-5200 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules in the port is about 5100-5200 yuan / ton. 62% Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4700-4800 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 5000 yuan / ton.

Judging from the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a high level this week, with the price of 10125.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 42.81% year-on-year over the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this week, from 7637.50 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7537.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.31%, an increase of 40.62% over the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has a downward trend, and the downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In mid July, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, the downstream demand weakened, and just need to purchase. The international price of potash fertilizer fell sharply, and the total decline in some regions has reached about $150 / ton, equivalent to about 1005 yuan / ton. Potassium chloride analysts of business agency believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may fluctuate slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market fell from 12833.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 12233.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.68%. On July 11, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 58.96, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a new low in the cycle, down 43.09% from the peak of 103.61 on September 22, 2021. (Note: the period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Prices of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers fell this week

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market fell from 8466.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 7366.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 12.99%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell sharply, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In mid July, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply, the cost support weakened, the weather became hotter, the downstream coating market entered the off-season, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened. The neopentyl glycol analyst of business agency believes that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term neopentyl glycol market, the market price may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly.

From July 1 to July 8, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene decreased slightly, from 7805 yuan / ton last weekend to 7763 yuan / ton this weekend, a weekly decrease of 0.54%.

In terms of crude oil, the market’s concern about the global economic recession increased, leading to a sharp fall in international oil prices, and WTI oil prices fell below $100 a barrel. However, the inventory of refined oil products in the United States fell, and the increase in demand led to a rebound in oil prices. As of July 8, Brent’s price fell by $4.61 per barrel, or 4.13%, this week compared with last week; WTI fell $3.64 / barrel, or 3.36%.

On July 8, international crude oil futures continued to rise. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $104.79 / barrel, up $2.06 or 2.0%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $107.02 / barrel, up $2.37 or 2.3%. Previously, the oil price fell due to the risk of economic recession, and the oil price rebounded for two consecutive days. The main reason is that although the risk of global economic recession is still there, the market panic has weakened, and the focus has returned to the fundamentals of supply shortage.

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

June 10, 10000.,+300

June 22, 9800.,-200

June 27, 9600.,-200

July 6, 9300.,-300

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan / ton on July 6, 2022, and 9300 yuan / ton was implemented.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical quote 9200 yuan / ton, Jingbo Petrochemical quote 9050 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical quote 9200 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quote 9003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quote 9100 yuan / ton.

This week, the hydrogenation benzene market as a whole fluctuated downward. Fundamentals crude oil prices fell sharply last week, Brent fell 4.13%, WTI fell $3.64 / barrel, down 3.36%. The outer disk of pure benzene fell broadly, and the import price in East China fell by 7.19%. Dragged down by fundamentals, the price of pure benzene in Sinopec fell by 300 yuan / ton to 9300 yuan / ton this week (the price of pure benzene in Hebei and Shandong fell to 9150 yuan / ton). This week, the hydrogenated benzene market mainly followed the trend of pure benzene downward. In the future, the downstream styrene has certain support, and the demand for pure benzene is well supported. It is expected that the short-term pure benzene will be weak and volatile. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

The crude benzene market decreased slightly this week, and the mainstream in Shandong implemented 7775 ~ 7780 yuan / ton, down 110 yuan / ton from last week. In terms of coking enterprises, the operating rate fell significantly this week. After the second round of increase and decrease of coke, there were widespread losses, and enterprises took the initiative to reduce production, resulting in a general tight supply of crude benzene in China, and enterprises had a strong attitude of supporting prices, and subsequent coking enterprises had plans to further reduce the operating rate. The operation of downstream benzene hydrogenation enterprises has declined recently, and they have some resistance to high priced crude benzene. The supply of crude benzene is tight recently. It is expected that the trend of crude benzene in the near future will be dominated by high-level consolidation, with limited downward space.

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business news agency, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong Province fluctuated and consolidated this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of Shandong styrene was 10492.86 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of Shandong styrene was 10550.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.54%. The price increased by 11.94% over the same period last year.

styrene

Styrene market price fluctuated and consolidated this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has mainly fallen, and the price fluctuated slightly this week. The main reason is that affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices, the cost is the dominant force. The market price of pure benzene in China fell to 9235 yuan / ton, which is difficult to support the styrene market. The arrival of styrene in Hong Kong and the inventory of enterprises are low, which restrained the decline of styrene. The transaction in the styrene market is general, and the spot price fluctuates slightly.

In terms of raw materials, oil prices first fell and then rose. U.S. crude oil inventories increased, but refined oil inventories fell. The increase in demand for refined oil led to a rebound in international oil prices. Pure benzene fell slightly. On July 8, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 9150 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical offered 9150 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical offered 9300 yuan / ton. The decline of pure benzene cannot support the price of styrene.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream styrene rose and fell mixed this week. The PS market fell weakly, the cost side support weakened, and merchants’ shipments were under pressure, mainly with small price cuts. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market was 10800-11900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of hips (polystyrene) was 11300-13000 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of this week, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11325 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11525 yuan / ton, with an increase of 0.88% and 5.98% compared with the same period of the year. The downstream batch purchase intention improved slightly, and the merchants delivered goods stably.

ABS market fell this week. In terms of industry load, the current operating rate of ABS enterprises has limited changes, which is generally at a high level and has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, and the pattern of weak market demand is gradually unfolding. Merchants give up profits and lower the focus of ABS offer.

Recently, the international crude oil market callback, styrene social inventory is low, and there are few negotiable sources of goods. On the whole, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate rose in June. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4650 yuan / ton, up 0.43% from the price of 4630 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 33.62% year-on-year.

In June, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price rose slightly, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably. Recently, the on-site supply of goods was normal, the on-site delivery was general, the manufacturer’s inventory was low, the upstream coal price of the terminal was stable, the price of nitric acid rose, the downstream demand was general, and the price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly due to the rise of raw materials. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream nitro compound fertilizer is purchased on demand. Recently, the trend of the downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable, and the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production. In addition, the sales of the civil explosive industry has come to an end, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has not increased much. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5000 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 4600-4700 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 5200-5300 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid rose sharply in June. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2950 yuan / ton, up 9.94% from 2683.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The quotation of Shaanxi Xinghua is 2650 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 3350 yuan / ton. Recently, domestic nitric acid plants have operated stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the field has increased. In June, the market price of nitric acid has risen sharply, and the price of raw nitric acid has risen, which has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has risen.

The domestic market price of liquid ammonia in the upstream fell in June. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 4790 yuan / ton, down 9.45% from the price of 5290 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4700-4900 yuan / ton. Mainly due to the increase of regional supply, some devices are started and restarted; As well as the high urea level in the downstream, the demand for fertilizer in the downstream is still weak, and the resistance to high prices has further suppressed some demand; In addition, the production of urea in some enterprises decreased, the production of liquid ammonia increased, and the price of liquid ammonia in the field fell sharply. Superimposed on the weakening of agricultural demand in the downstream, the downstream stocking came to an end. The decline in the price of upstream liquid ammonia has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has not increased significantly.

Recently, the downstream procurement is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, but the raw material market price has remained high, which has brought some positive support to the ammonium nitrate Market. However, the sales of the civil explosive industry have weakened, and the ammonium nitrate analysts of the business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may stabilize in the later period.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the dichloromethane market fell in June. As of June 30, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 3290 yuan / ton, down 13.14% from 3787 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In early June, dichloromethane fell all the way due to the impact of the supply side; From the middle of the year, the West Shandong and Jinling methane chloride plants began to reduce the load one after another, stimulating the market to rise slightly; However, the pressure on domestic dichloromethane supply is still large, and the price of dichloromethane has fallen again since the middle and late June.

In the first half of June, Jinling and other devices in Shandong began to reduce the load successively, which formed a certain stimulus support for the market; However, the domestic supply pressure is still large, and the market continues to decline in mid and late June.

In June, the spot price of raw methanol fluctuated and consolidated, and the cost side was first strong and then weak. According to the business news agency, as of June 30, the price of methanol was 2620 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.10% from 2617 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the month was 2715 yuan / ton. In June, methanol was mainly shaken and consolidated by the fluctuation of raw coal price. It can be seen from the “comparison of methanol dichloromethane price trend” chart that although methanol fluctuates at present, the cost of dichloromethane is still supported.

In June, the start-up of downstream pharmaceutical, polyurethane foaming, industrial refrigeration and other industries in dichloromethane was generally stable, and the downstream purchased dichloromethane on demand. The overall market transaction was stable and weak, and the support of demand for dichloromethane was weakened.

Aftermarket forecast: Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that the current supply and demand side is under pressure, and dichloromethane is expected to continue to weaken in the near future.