Price dynamics: on August 8, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 8150 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 8150 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 8150 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 8150 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8150 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 8150 yuan / ton;

Others: the quotation of Jingbo Petrochemical is 8050 yuan / ton, the quotation of HSBC Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton, the quotation of Weilian chemical is 8053 yuan / ton, the quotation of Xinhai Petrochemical is 8100 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Hongrun Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the US economic data is good, and the employment data shows strong growth, alleviating the negative sentiment of the economic recession on energy demand, and the oil price rises slightly.

Today, Weilian chemical reduced its pure benzene by 50 yuan / ton, and Jingbo Petrochemical reduced its pure benzene by 50 yuan / ton.

The cost side is weak; The decrease of centralized parking in the downstream reduces the demand for pure benzene; Sinopec has continuously lowered its listing price. The pure benzene market is in a bad mood and the price is down. Today, the price of domestic pure benzene is 8050-8200 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market declined this week, and the market of the domestic rare earth industry declined slightly. On August 7, the rare earth index was 720 points, which was the same as yesterday. It was 28.50% lower than the highest point 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and 165.68% higher than the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

This week, the product prices in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of the mainstream praseodymium neodymium system in the rare earth market declined. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide declined slightly. As of August 8, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 802500 yuan / ton, and the price dropped by 6.14% this week; The price of neodymium metal was 1.015 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.58%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 805000 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 5.85%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 754500 yuan / ton, down 4.49% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 920000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.15%; The price of metal praseodymium was 1.095 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 5.19%. This week, the domestic rare earth market continued to decline.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market is declining, the recent downstream purchase is not active, and the number of new orders is relatively small. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises is deepened, and the purchasing intention is weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises have reduced production due to the shortage of raw material inventory due to the shortage of waste supply. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles in the downstream is reduced, the demand for spot purchase is weak, and the market price continues to fall. There is no obvious improvement in the downstream demand side, the purchase demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium has dropped sharply. The number of active offers made by the separation enterprises in the field is reduced, and the purchase is cautious. The offers of the traders are active, and some merchants intend to sell goods at a profit. In addition, the purchasing intention of the metal factory is not high. The market trend of light rare earth continues to decline.

The purchase orders of the downstream magnetic material industry have not improved, and rare earths are purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not buying down, the price trend in the market has dropped sharply. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is acceptable. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile industry, in June 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.502 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 29.7% and 34.4% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. The automobile production and sales increased significantly. In the recent period, the demand for new energy was general, the domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price declined slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium oxide in China has dropped. As of August 8, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.295 million yuan / ton, with a price drop of 0.86% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.305 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 0.22%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.055 million yuan / ton, which fell by 0.81% this week; This week, the price trend of terbium series dropped. The domestic price of terbium oxide was 13.75 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 17.4 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths has dropped slightly. The leading magnetic material factory purchases according to demand, which makes the domestic market of heavy rare earths fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in light rare earth ore use areas in Sichuan and other places has decreased. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in light rare earth ore use areas. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, the production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be mild, The downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market has dropped slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industrial pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the ore indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the indicators is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply indicators. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are all + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earths will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock and mineral type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and the ionic type rare earth is 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increase will be concentrated on light rare earth, which will be a long-term trend. In the long term, the domestic rare earth market will still be supported.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal plants, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government introduces policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the terminal will be boosted in the later period. Chen Ling, a business analyst, predicts that the downstream procurement is not active in the short term, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to fall. However, in the long term, the rare earth industry still has support.

Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite fell sharply this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 3033.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 2783.33 yuan / ton, down 8.24% in the week.

Affected by the sharp drop in raw material cost, in August, the enterprise comprehensively reduced the factory price of sodium pyrosulfite, which led to a sharp drop in the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the month. This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite market price range was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were concentrated around 2800 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises that have not reported are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details.).

In July, the domestic sulfur price fell sharply, the soda ash price continued to be weak, and the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price continued to be under pressure under the pressure of cost suppression. In August, the price of sulfur rebounded slightly, the price of soda ash continued to be weak, and the cost of raw materials was still low. The cost will continue to suppress the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that under the pressure of cost, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will still be under pressure in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell sharply this month. The hydrochloric acid price fell from 270.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 196.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 27.16%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.24%.

On June 26, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 74.34, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.09% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 313.46% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is strengthened, and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this month, and the downstream demand was general.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell sharply, giving insufficient support to hydrochloric acid. The downstream ammonium chloride market fell sharply, and the price of ammonium chloride fell from 1565.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1222.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 21.88%, up 21.34% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, and the price fell from 2230.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2141.25 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 3.98%, up 26.70% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market fell sharply, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid weakened. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products have a negative impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month.

Slightly volatile decline in the aftermarket

In the middle and early August, the hydrochloric acid market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has fallen sharply recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream ammonium chloride market has fallen sharply, the price of polyaluminum chloride has fallen slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Business analysts believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fall slightly.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, under the influence of the sharp decline of the upstream polyester staple fiber futures and Zheng cotton futures in the first half of this month, pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn followed the decline, and the raw materials gradually stopped falling and retreated after the middle of the month. As there was no expectation of a significant improvement in downstream demand, the yarn market was light, and inventories were high. Pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn were mainly stable. As of July 29, the average market price of polyester yarn was 14300 yuan / ton, down 175 yuan / ton or 1.21% from 14475 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 1.04% year on year. The average market price of polyester cotton yarn was 19160 yuan / ton, down 1440 yuan / ton or 6.99% from 20600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On July 16, a number of yarn representatives from Changle participated in the meeting to discuss the production reduction. Under the background of sharp decline in raw materials, high inventories and serious losses, they proposed that each self-discipline reduce production by 50%. Previously, more than 90% of the spinning mills in the main polyester yarn production areas in Fujian and Jiangxi have reduced production, and the operating rate has decreased from 68% in May to 51%, but it is still not enough for the current depressed market. Polyester yarn downstream in southern China is mostly used for knitting machines. Taking large circular knitting machines as an example, the starting rate of circular knitting machines in Fujian and Guangdong is only 2-3%, and Xiao Shao is around 40%, which is still in oversupply compared with the downstream. The equity inventory of finished products of the cotton mill was about 24 days, and the downstream purchase intention was not high, resulting in a cash flow loss of 300 yuan / ton.

The life of polyester cotton yarn is more difficult. Most cotton mills still have cotton inventory with a unit price of more than 20000 yuan / ton. Now cotton has fallen to around 15000. Although the immediate cash flow of yarn has become positive, the actual loss is serious. There are a large number of production reductions and closures in Shandong, Jiangsu, Hebei and Fujian. The inventory of cotton mills is generally more than one month, and there are not a few more than two months. The startup rate of polyester cotton yarn still has a downward trend. Domestic demand is sluggish, the “Xinjiang cotton” ban is outside, coupled with the sharp decline in raw materials, cotton containing enterprises are experiencing a “dark moment”.

The polyester staple fiber market fell sharply in the early stage, and crude oil and polyester raw materials rebounded after oversold. Affected by this, the polyester staple fiber market also stopped falling and stabilized. However, the commencement of cotton mills in Changle and other places began to decline, and the negative feedback of high inventory and low demand in the downstream was obvious. Although the futures stopped falling and stabilized slightly, the focus of shipment in the spot market gradually fell to follow up the early futures decline. The basis gradually weakened to around +350 to +450 of the 09 contract. As of the 29th, the mainstream of Jiangsu and Zhejiang 1.4d negotiation is about 7900-8100 yuan / ton, which is a single negotiation. During the month, Zheng Mian once hit the limit, and the main cf2209 contract fell to 13560 yuan / ton that day. Then Zheng Mian oversold and rebounded, and the main contract was sealed on the daily limit. Recently, Zheng cotton futures prices fluctuated too much, which had a significant impact on the upstream and downstream of the cotton textile industry, and the spot purchase and sales of cotton basically stagnated.

In terms of textiles, in July, domestic demand and exports were sluggish, superimposed on the traditional off-season, and downstream demand continued to be weak. Houdao weaving factory was cautious about going unipolar. The accumulation of finished products in the industrial chain continues to be serious, and the lack of liquidity makes it difficult to form positive feedback to the raw material end. According to the feedback of enterprises, the inventory of textile mills is low at present. If the order level recovers in the later stage, it is expected to trigger further replenishment. At present, some enterprises have enlarged the scale of replenishment at a low level. It is uncertain whether the peak season from September to October is still “not prosperous in the peak season”. It is expected that before October, it will be in the state of “buy as you go, buy as you go”.

Aftermarket forecast: Generally speaking, the recent yarn market sales continued to be poor, and the price continued to be weak, especially for cotton yarn, the manufacturer’s inventory was obvious, mainly at a loss, and generally struggled with helplessness and waiting. The current market is still low under the influence of domestic and foreign economic situation and high temperature. The cotton mills have basically taken measures to reduce production and protect prices. The market mentality is still insufficient in the near future, and it is difficult for the middle and lower reaches to purchase.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of July 29, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 9266.67 yuan / ton this week. The price of cyclohexane this week was mainly stable, and there was no significant change in the price compared with the same period last week. At present, the operating rate is normal, the logistics is smooth, the transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 9200 yuan / ton, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the stable operation is mainly maintained, The focus of the negotiation is stable, and the price fluctuation range this week is not large.

The average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane in Japan is 9833.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 9266.67 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane is balanced, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal.

Upstream pure benzene: upstream pure benzene operates weakly in a narrow range. In East China, Yangzi Petrochemical quoted 9150 yuan / ton; South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9150 yuan / ton; Central China: the quotation of Wuhan ethylene is 9150 yuan / ton.

Chemical industry index: on July 28, the chemical industry index was 996 points, down 3 points from yesterday, down 28.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 66.56% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business agency, the cyclohexane market is expected to operate smoothly in the short term, and the mainstream price is about 9200 yuan / ton. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

In July 2022, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market showed a “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 14995 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15195 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.33%.

On July 29, the lead commodity index was 92.48, up 0.1 points from yesterday, down 30.99% from 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), the highest point in the cycle, and up 23.92% from 74.63 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

Lead futures market in July 2022

Variety, closing price on the 1st, closing price on the 29th, inventory on the 1st, inventory on the 29th

Shanghai lead, 15030 yuan / ton, 15240 yuan / ton, 78025 tons, 68151 tons

London lead, 1930 US dollars / ton, 2036.5 US dollars / ton, 38850 tons, 39500 tons

In the futures market, the overall low rebound trend of Lun lead in July, with a monthly fluctuation range of $1784.5-2047 / ton, with a monthly increase of more than 4.7%. In terms of Shanghai tin, the main contract changed months. At present, the main contract is 2209 contract. The overall trend of this month is “V”, and the overall decline in the first half of the month is mainly due to many macro negative factors. The metal market is generally under pressure, and the lead price is lower. The CPI data of the United States in June dragged Shanghai lead down to 14345 yuan / ton on the 15th, hitting a new low in nearly 11 months. Later, as the market negative news is gradually digested, the trend hit the bottom and rebounded, returning to the line of 15200 yuan / ton.

The trend of the spot market still follows the trend of Shanghai lead this month, showing a “V” trend as a whole. In addition to the macro impact, which has dragged the lead price down to 14600 yuan / ton, basically speaking, there has been little change in the supply side in the near future. Refineries have successively ended maintenance and resumed production, and the output has rebounded recently. In terms of primary lead, it has not been recovered due to power rationing in Anhui. Downstream, boosted by the end of the seasonal off-season and the approaching peak season, battery sales have improved to a certain extent. In the early stage, the lead price has declined, and some downstream actively purchased. At present, the overall social inventory of lead ingots has declined significantly, giving significant support to the lead price. However, with the lead price rising, the actual transaction situation in the current market is lower than that in the early stage, and the downstream is on the sidelines as a whole. On the whole, the current macro performance of the lead ingot Market is acceptable, the demand in the downstream peak season is expected to increase, and the overall inventory decline this month, especially the reduction of 10000 tons of inventory in the previous period, which boosted the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will have some room to rise under the boost of demand, and the macro impact will be focused on when the fundamental changes are limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic refrigerant R22 stopped falling and rebounded in July. On July 29, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17000.00 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price of 17000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and increased by 5.15% compared with the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic refrigerant R134a continued to rise in July. As of July 29, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 22500.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.74% over the price of 21333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 8.87% over the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the fundamentals of refrigerant R22 fluctuated little, the enterprise quotation stopped falling and rose slightly, and the overall low level moved forward slightly. The price of raw material chloroform continued to decline in the month, hydrofluoric acid remained weak and stable as a whole, the cost of raw materials continued to decline, refrigerant enterprises had difficulties in shipping, and the cost continued to suppress the domestic R22 price. Summer was the peak season for refrigerant demand, and the domestic R22 price stopped falling and stabilized as a whole under the support of demand.

In July, the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid was weak and stabilized as a whole, the quotation of trichloroethylene rose slightly, and the raw material cost rose slightly. In addition, summer was the peak season of refrigerant traditional demand, and the price of refrigerant R134a continued to rise in July, supported by downstream demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of business agency, the cost of raw materials has rebounded slightly, and the peak demand season is coming. Supported by the cost and demand, it is expected that the price of domestic refrigerant R134a will continue to rise in August. The upstream raw material cost of R22 decreased slightly, which will suppress the market price of R22 in August. It is expected that the overall rebound space of R22 price in August is limited.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the copper price first fell and then rebounded in July. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 62968.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price fell to 60045 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 4.64% and a year-on-year decline of 17.02%.

According to the current chart of the business community, in July, the spot price of copper was basically higher than the futures price, and the main contract was the expected price in two months. The main basis became larger, which was bad for buying hedging.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory in July was slightly higher than that in June, and was relatively high in 1-5 months.

Macro aspect: according to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, the year-on-year increase of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) from March to May was more than 8% for three consecutive months. In June, CPI increased by 9.1% year-on-year, hitting a new high in nearly 41 years. On July 21, the European Central Bank announced that it would raise the three key interest rates by 50 basis points, which was higher than the 25 basis points previously expected by the market and exceeded the European Central Bank’s forward-looking guidance in June. On the 27th, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point increase in interest rates, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to between 2.25% and 2.5%. This is the fourth interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year and the second consecutive 75 basis points hike.

Supply: in the week of July 1, cspt held an online meeting to finalize the TC guidance price of copper concentrate in the third quarter of 2022 at $80 / dry ton, which was the same as that in the second quarter. In July, the overall supply and demand continued to improve month on month, but it was still slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The intensity of consumption recovery after the epidemic eased was weak. Under the influence of the resumption of production of Shandong refineries, the completion of centralized maintenance of domestic refineries and the recovery of production, the supply of refined copper is expected to gradually increase, and the subsequent or continued accumulation of reserves. However, the domestic inventory showed a downward trend. Although the trade sector showed poor buying interest, the inventory fell and the premium rose, which verified that the current demand is still in the repair list.

Demand: in June, China’s power grid investment was 64.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 26% year-on-year and 74% month on month. In June, the output of air conditioners in China was 22.2143 million units, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year; The export volume of air conditioners was 3.63 million units, lower than the same period in previous years, and the external demand performance was poor. In June, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.502 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 590000 and 596000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times. In July, the overall demand was poor, and the operating rate and processing fee of copper pipes and rods fell. Except for the automobile direction, other fields entered the seasonal consumption off-season, and downstream purchases remained cautious in the price decline.

Based on the above situation, in July, the copper supply was loose and the consumption was weak. The copper price fell to a two-year low and rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom.

In the second half of the year, the maintenance of domestic smelting enterprises will be reduced. In the new project, the feeding time of the 400000 ton double flash process of Daye Nonferrous Metals is from August to September, and it is expected that the first batch of crude copper will be released in the fourth quarter. The expansion plan of Xinjiang Wuxin has been put into operation, and the output is expected to increase from 10000 tons to 15000 tons after July. Tongling and Fuye also have plans to expand production in the third and fourth quarters. With the reduction of interference and the increase of new investment and construction, the supply will be relaxed again in the second half of the year.

Traditional downstream demand, including air conditioners, wires and cables, will be dragged down by the real estate market. Although the real estate policy has marginal improvement, it is difficult to reverse the weak trend in the second half of the year; Household appliances have also weakened; More hopes are placed on Power Investment under infrastructure construction. It is expected that in August, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will continue, and the copper price may remain low and volatile.

This week, the spot tin market price (7.15-7.22) fluctuated for many times and rose as a whole. The average price in the domestic market was 189810 yuan / ton last weekend and 193710 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 2.05%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that tin prices continued to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 29th week of 2022 (7.18-7.22), there were six kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, of which one kind increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were nickel (9.89%), copper (2.24%) and lead (1.40%). A total of 13 commodities fell month on month, with a total of 1 commodity falling by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were magnesium (-5.15%), cobalt (-4.49%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-3.43%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.45%.

Futures market situation this week

Variety, closing price, compared with the same period last week, inventory (tons)

Shanghai tin, 191850 yuan / ton, +10350 yuan / ton, 3758

London Tin, 25000 US dollars / ton, +225 US dollars / ton, 3490

In terms of the futures market, Lunxi’s narrow range fluctuations this week were mainly within 1%. Shanghai tin has maintained a wide range of volatility this week, with a fluctuation range of less than 6%. On the macro level, the high level of the US dollar fell, and the metal market was generally boosted. Therefore, the futures trend this week was dominated on the whole, especially Shanghai tin.

In terms of supply, smelters stopped production for maintenance in July, and the overall output is expected to decline in July. However, the downstream demand has not changed much recently, and the overall start-up of tin solder enterprises is still low, with fewer orders. In terms of the market, the delivery of the contract in the spot market this week has been completed, the overall performance of the market supply is relatively sufficient, the market transaction is general, and most of the goods are shipped at a discount. The recent trend of tin price is still disturbed by macro factors, and it is expected that tin price will remain wide and volatile under the pattern of weak supply and demand.