1、 Price trend

This week (4.20-26), the domestic polysilicon market continued to decline, and the prices of polycrystalline compact materials and polycrystalline non washable materials declined to varying degrees. The main reason is that manufacturers have successively lowered their production prices, and the prices of imported goods have also gradually declined, which is the demand side problem. Affected by the epidemic, the downstream purchase demand has further shrunk, and the export orders of components have significantly shrunk, so this week’s market price The price of new orders in the market has dropped a lot. According to the monitoring of the business agency, this week’s polycrystalline silicon solar grade I material decline is 7.19%. At present, the price of polycrystalline silicon has maintained a downward trend for five consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of polycrystalline silicon has fallen to a historical low.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of market supply, at present, the polysilicon supply performance is sufficient, the manufacturer’s devices are partially shut down, and the overall domestic operation rate remains at 80-90%. As of April 26, there are only two polysilicon manufacturers in China for maintenance or load reduction production. The domestic production maintains a high operation rate, and the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is higher than ever before. In addition, from the perspective of polysilicon import end, polysilicon import price continued to decline this week, down 2000-3000 yuan / ton compared with last week, continuing to impact the domestic market. At present, manufacturers mainly execute orders in the early stage. Most enterprises sign orders until May, and some enterprises sign orders in May. In addition, the market transportation pressure is not great, but affected by the increase of transportation cost, the delivery speed of manufacturers decreases. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the main domestic transaction price of polysilicon with the model of primary solar material is 45000-49000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of demand, terminal demand is sluggish, especially external demand continues to decline, global terminal installation is blocked, overseas orders of domestic component end are delayed or cancelled, resulting in the operating rate of domestic component manufacturers gradually reduced, thus transferred to the silicon material part of the upstream industrial chain. The new production capacity of single crystal can only be delayed, and domestic production remains stable. Currently, there is no The release of new capacity also eased the pressure on the supply side to some extent. On the other hand, the demand for polycrystals is also slightly stable due to the gradual recovery of the operating rate of downstream single crystal enterprises currently in production, but the export of terminal components is still the biggest problem restricting the entire silicon industry chain.

3、 Future prospects

In the future, the business community believes that the supply pressure of polysilicon is becoming more and more prominent at present, but in the later stage, with more and more enterprises overhauling, the supply pressure will be relieved. It is estimated that at the end of April, there will be 4 domestic enterprises of 10000 tons for routine maintenance, and there will be 1 enterprise planned to overhauling in May, with the overhaul capacity exceeding 60000 tons. The demand side problem is expected to remain unsolved in the short term, mainly because the overseas epidemic trend has not been effectively controlled. With the increase of overseas anti-dumping efforts on China’s photovoltaic products, the export may shrink significantly in the future, so it is expected that polysilicon market will maintain a weak trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of sulfur market in East China this weekend was 600.00 yuan / ton, down 4.26% compared with the average ex factory price of 626.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 41.94% compared with last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic sulfur market was stagnant, the spot supply was tight and the price was on the high side, the port inventory was still high, the external market fell and the information was scarce, and the support in the port was limited. In this week, the enthusiasm of sulfur downstream plants to enter the market is not high and the intention price is low. With the decrease of demand for ammonium phosphate, the later stage of fertilizer export is not clear, the prediction of the future market is not clear, the factory is more wait-and-see mentality, and the refineries in each region will adjust the quotation according to their own shipping situation within the week. As of December 17, Sinopec’s quotation for solid sulfur in East China was 570-680 yuan / ton, while that for liquid sulfur was reduced by 30 yuan / ton and 510-600 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s quotation for North China was temporarily stable, with 530-570 yuan / ton for solid sulfur and 400-450 yuan / ton for liquid sulfur; Sinopec’s quotation for solid sulfur in East Shandong was reduced by 20-30 yuan / ton and 610-620 yuan / ton and 410-460 yuan / ton for liquid sulfur Yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in terms of downstream sulfuric acid, the domestic market is obviously differentiated, and the price of sulfuric acid is up and down. The main sulfuric acid plant in Shandong Province was overhauled, the overall supply of sulfuric acid was relatively tight, and the enterprise was the main actor in the quotation. At present, the overhaul of acid enterprises is relatively concentrated, and the supply side is significantly reduced. The main downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises are in the final stage, and the demand side is also weak. In addition, the cost end support is still weak, and the upward space of sulfuric acid market is limited. It is expected that the acid market will be operated in a narrow range in the later stage.

3、 Future forecast

According to sulfur analysts of the business association, at present, the demand for phosphate fertilizer is weakening, the export is not clear, the port inventory remains high, the low price shipping intention of the shippers is not high, and the attitude of the operators towards the future market is mainly stalemate. It is expected that the sulfur market will be light and stable in the later period, waiting for the guidance of market news.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this weekend was 1516 yuan / ton, while the average price at the beginning of the week was 1550 yuan / ton, down 2.15%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid enterprise is weak, the price of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1300-1400 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than last week; Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1400-1450 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1700 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton lower than last week; the demand of nitric acid market is still light.

Industrial chain: upstream liquid ammonia, the price of liquid ammonia this week is temporarily stable. Downstream aniline, stimulated by good news this week, prices rebounded sharply. On Friday (April 17), prices in Shandong and Nanjing were 5500 yuan / ton and 5600 yuan / ton respectively, up 9.93% compared with last week. TDI was mainly weak this week.

3、 Future forecast

The nitric acid analyst of the business association predicted that the nitric acid market demand is hard to change and weak adjustment is the main trend.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of ethylene in the external market has declined recently. The average price of ethylene on the 17th was 447.75 USD / ton, down 4.17% compared with 467.25 USD / ton on the 16th, and the current price is down 57.21% year on year.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: ethylene has declined in recent days. Asian ethylene market prices fell sharply. As of the 17th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $345-355 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $395-405 / ton. The price of European ethylene market was volatile and consolidated. As of the 17th, the price of European ethylene market was FD, northwest Europe closed at $548-558 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe closed at $484-492 / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. region bottomed out and rebounded. As of the 17th, the price was US $181-193 / ton. Generally speaking, the market of ethylene in Europe and America is in a downward trend in the near future, and the market of the whole ethylene market is not good. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival.

Industry chain: International: on April 16, WTI crude oil futures market price in the United States was flat on the previous trading day, with the main contract at 19.87 yuan / barrel. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose slightly, the main contract at $27.82/barrel, up $0.13. It has a limited supporting effect on the price of ethylene, and the external market of ethylene keeps falling again. The demand of the whole industry is poor, and the ethylene market keeps refreshing the lowest price. After the price of styrene in the downstream drops, it temporarily maintains stability, and the ethanol market is weak and consolidated, which can not support the price of ethylene, and the price of ethylene fluctuates and falls.

3、 Future forecast:

According to ethylene analysts of business and chemical branch, recently major oil producing countries have reached production reduction agreements, but oil demand is still poor, the market is low and consolidated, unable to support ethylene price, so data analysts of business and chemical branch expect that ethylene price will keep a narrow downward slide in the future.

1、 Price trend:

On April 10, crude benzene commodity index was 36.75, which was the same as yesterday, 72.13% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and 20.33% higher than 30.54, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: the OPEC + meeting can reach an agreement on crude oil production reduction. The boost of confidence in the market has driven Sinopec’s price of pure benzene up three times in the week, with a cumulative increase of 600 yuan / ton. The price of pure benzene on the outside has also rebounded significantly. The bidding price of crude benzene rose this week, and the price in Shandong region rose to around 2500 yuan / ton by Friday. However, in the near future, the downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have been intensively overhauled, with a low operating rate of about 40%. The demand for crude benzene is less supported. In terms of terminal demand, the price of styrene increases with the increase, but the overall operating rate has not been greatly improved, which is difficult to support crude benzene

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 14th week of 2020 (4.6-4.10), there are 28 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, including 13 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 14.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are pure benzene (21.34%), crude benzene (20.34%) and acetone (15.79%). There are 28 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 5 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 5.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are ethylene (- 11.31%), butadiene (- 10.19%) and aniline (- 5.63%). This week’s average was up or down 1.05%.

3、 Trend Forecast:

The business community expects that the oil price will remain low and volatile in the near future. In the medium and long term, it depends on the development of international events. In the context of the contraction of economic activities in Europe and the United States, it is difficult for the oil market to be fundamentally positive. In terms of pure benzene, the external market continued to rise, with the expectation that the future market of pure benzene would be raised, the recent start-up of hydrogenated benzene enterprises was relatively low, and the downstream demand did not rise significantly. It is expected that the future market or the price driven by the industrial chain will rise, but it is difficult to have a large increase.

1、 Price trend

 
According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on April 12 was 833.33 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province on April 14 was 916.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.77%. The current price is 38.20% lower than last year.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Recently, the price of formaldehyde in the domestic market has increased. As of April 14, the main factory quotation in Hebei is about 870 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 880 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 1035 yuan / ton. The annual output of 120000 tons formaldehyde plant in Linyi Yinhe, Shandong Province has been restarted, with the formaldehyde content of 36.7-37%. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons and formaldehyde content of 37%, which have been restarted. The formaldehyde market has sufficient supply, general trading atmosphere, acceptable attitude of formaldehyde manufacturers, and rebound in price.

Industry chain: methanol upstream: international oil price has been revised back again, some MTOs have been overhauled, and the mentality of the industry is different. Methanol market in Northwest China rose with a good trading atmosphere. The northwest region did not issue the guidance price this week, and some factories in the north line of Inner Mongolia reported to increase to 1460 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange, and the shipment was to be observed. The downstream demand is general, some enterprises are affected by safety inspection, and the production load is low. The purchase is rigid and the overall transaction is ordinary. The price rise of formaldehyde enterprises is mainly supported by raw materials, and the market is rising.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol bottomed out and rebounded. Recently, the market went higher, which supported the cost of formaldehyde. The demand of the downstream plate enterprises was average. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or consolidation was the main trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. According to the monitoring price of the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 4128 yuan / ton, while the domestic butadiene market price at the weekend was 3867 yuan / ton, down 6.32%, 38.18% month on month, down 52.12% year on year. At present, the market price of butadiene has repeatedly broken new lows.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, butadiene maintained a weak and low pattern. The supply price of manufacturers has been lowered many times. However, the market supply and demand pattern is still stagnant, and the pressure on the supply side is still there. In addition, the low price in the external market dragged down, and the downstream purchase maintained the rigid demand Main, inquiry and purchase are still cautious; after returning from the Qingming holiday on Tuesday, the base price of domestic manufacturers in Northeast China was lowered and the transaction was not smooth. Meanwhile, the prices of many factories including Sinopec, the main supplier, were also lowered. The merchants’ offers fell with each other, but the downstream purchase intention was not good. The market did not improve significantly, the downstream inquiry and purchase remained cautious, and the price of the outside market fell again The domestic market is under pressure, with middlemen’s offers falling one after another, local businesses lack of active offer intention, and the overall trading performance is still weak.

In terms of enterprises, the 100000 t / a oxidation and dehydrogenation unit of Jiangsu srbang was restarted on March 30. At present, the unit is in normal operation, and the quotation is reduced by 800 yuan / ton to 4200 yuan / ton; the 70000 T / a unit of Inner Mongolia Jiutai is restarted, and the goods are sold normally, and the quotation is reduced by 500 yuan / ton to 3400 yuan / ton. Dalian Hengli 140000t / a device operates stably, the goods are sold normally, and the quotation drops by 300 yuan / ton to 3510 yuan / ton.

In terms of industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: the supply price of domestic mainstream styrene butadiene is stable, and the market price is higher. The main offer price of Shandong Qilu 1502 is 7800-7900 yuan / ton, and that of oil rubber 1712 is 7000 yuan / ton. Shanghai Rubber rose, the news to cheer up the mentality of the industry; the raw material butadiene supply price fell, the styrene butadiene production enterprise theoretical profit enlarged again. Boosted by the rise of crude oil and Shanghai Jiaotong, the upside down price in the market disappears. The industry generally adds 100-300 yuan / ton to make an offer to watch the trading market; the inquiry atmosphere is fair, most of which is replenishment by middlemen, while the terminal remains on the watch, and the principle of “use as you go” remains unchanged.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: the ex factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber has not been adjusted, and the range of market offer has been boosted. With the improvement of inquiry, the price of the offer has been gradually increased, while the price of the low offer has been reduced. Only a few private enterprises have delivered goods at a price lower than that of the petrochemical factory. The overall offer atmosphere has improved. The middlemen are active in the market, and the downstream factories just need to replenish their positions.

3、 Future forecast

The supply of overseas ocean going cargo is abundant, and the supply and demand of domestic butadiene spot continue to be weak. With the prices of Sinopec and other suppliers continue to decline, the overall market continues to decline. The short-term peripheral information is difficult to transmit to the butadiene spot market, and there is no obvious positive support from market supply and demand. The butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market continues to be weak, and it is suggested to pay attention to the guidance of the internal and external trading news.

Market trend

After the Qingming holiday, affected by the sharp upward trend of crude oil before the festival, pure benzene rebounded and stopped falling. Manufacturers continuously raised their listing and made offers, with a significant cumulative increase of up to 9%. Supported by the cost side brought by the upward trend of raw materials, phenol Market inquiry increased, and the willingness of intermediate dealers who have been waiting for the market for a long time to quickly copy the bottom stock increased, and the market offer went up. According to the monitoring of the business news agency, the daily price of petrochemical manufacturers in East China was 4925 yuan / ton on April 6, 5250 yuan / ton on April 10, up 4.57%, down 33.97% year on year; the daily price of phenol Market in East China was 6900 yuan / ton on April 6, up 10.71% on average; by the end of the week, the price of surrounding areas in Shandong was 5400 yuan / ton, Yanshan The surrounding offer is 5400 yuan / ton, the East China market 5500 yuan / ton, and the South China market 5600 yuan / ton. At present, the market offer is higher than the petrochemical listing. By the end of the week, the market is gradually stable, and the willingness of shippers to ship is enhanced.

Analysis and comment

On the cost side, the reduction of crude oil production before the Qingming Festival was favorable for release in advance, with a single day increase of 22%. The rapid stop of decline and rebound of pure benzene was affected by the boost of crude oil. Due to the unknown news of “production reduction” of crude oil in the early stage, many market participants are waiting for the market. Although the pure benzene dropped to 2300 yuan / ton last week, the insiders believe that the uncertainty of crude oil makes it impossible to determine whether the pure benzene bottomed out. Most of them have been waiting for the market, and then the crude oil benefits will be released ahead of time before the pre Festival negotiation. After the crude oil soars, the pure benzene market enters the market and purchases obviously, and the market speculation cooperates with manufacturers Listing went up, the rapid increase of inquiry in the field, the total increase of pure benzene market nearly 1000 yuan. Supported by the cost side, phenol Market performance is similar, first market high followed by Sinopec’s continuous upward listing. According to the settlement of the business agency, some dealers who have not been engaged in chemical trade for many years have also hoarded goods, with obvious phenomenon of bottom copying and higher market participation. Before the festival, the market once fell to 4500 yuan / ton. At present, the market offers 5500 yuan / ton. However, the negotiation on September 9 was not as expected, the crude oil plunged sharply, and phenol was stable over the weekend.

In terms of pure benzene, FOB South Korea rose 6 US dollars / ton to 318 US dollars / ton, CFR China rose 25 US dollars / ton to 376 US dollars / ton, FOB Southeast Asia rose 6 US dollars / ton to 281 US dollars / ton, FOB Rotterdam and CIF ara both stabilized at 275.5 US dollars / ton, and FOB USG rose 3 US cents / gallon to 108 US cents / gallon.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the current market is abundant. CNOOC shell’s 350000t / a phenol and ketone plant was shut down for maintenance on April 4. It is expected that the maintenance will last for about 30 days. The 400000t / a phenol and ketone plant in the third well of Sinopec will be put into operation with a load of 90%; the 480000t / a phenol and ketone plant in Zhejiang Taihua will be put into operation with a load of 75%. The inventory of phenol Hengyang is 10000 tons.

Demand is relatively stable. On the aspect of BPA, it is mainly large SINOPEC enterprises. Demand is relatively stable. On the aspect of enterprise start-up, it is generally stable. After this round of bottom exploration, some factories in the downstream, such as phenolic resin, have certain inventory, which is stable in the short term. On the other hand, the barrel inventory of intermediate traders is higher than that in the early stage. It is expected that the demand in the later stage will be relatively stable, and the terminal demand will slightly increase.

Industry: the phenol ketone industry chain as a whole has been significantly boosted by the rise of crude oil, and the products in the industry chain as a whole have been on the rise. At present, crude oil – pure benzene – phenol, after a round of bottom exploration, has risen back, terminal and intermediate traders have certain inventory, and short-term demand may decline to a certain extent.

Forecast for future market

To sum up, after a round of “roller coaster” market in April, it is hard to say that the crude oil is good for stimulation in the short term. The weekend crude oil plunges sharply, which is bad for the market. Phenol analysts of the business news agency believe that phenol will continue to rise with limited support. Short term market negotiations will be between 5400-5500 yuan / ton. Next week, the overall market weakness will maintain stability or there will be downside risks.

1、 Price quotation

According to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), compared with the high price of more than 40000 yuan, the price of natural rubber at that time had fallen by three quarters. In 2019, the price of natural rubber as a whole had three surges (12070 yuan / ton on March 4 was the first high price, 12020 on June 11 was the second high price, 12290 yuan / ton on December 6 was the third high price), and the two downturns of the whole year (10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and the beginning of May and 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and the beginning of August), but none of these three months of market in the first quarter of 2020 is worrying. According to the market data of natural rubber in 18 years in Baodao, East China monitored by the business agency, the price on March 30 is about 9100 yuan / ton, which is about one fifth of the highest price of Tianjiao and the lowest price in ten years. From the single month of March, the price of 9100 yuan / ton at the end of the month is about 1300 yuan / ton lower than the mainstream price of 10400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, a drop of 10.67%.

According to the data of the previous period, on March 18, 2020, the main contract of Shanghai Jiaotong broke 10000 yuan, which is still fluctuating and decreasing; on November 27, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9300 yuan / ton, which has broken the low value of 9350 yuan / ton that Shanghai Jiaotong went out on November 30, 2015; on November 30, the lowest price in Shanghai Jiaotong was 9115 yuan / ton, which has renewed the new low price; looking back at the historical trend, the lower price of Shanghai Jiaotong is 8 on December 31, 2008 715 yuan / ton, that is to say, Shanghai rubber is at the lowest price in 11 years.

2、 Factor analysis

Raw material supply: at present, the rubber production at home and abroad is in the off-season. The weather in the main production areas of China is dry and powdery mildew occurs in some areas. It is expected that the cutting time will be delayed and the output will not be as good as that in previous years. The Southeast Asian market will be significantly affected, and the output and export transportation of natural rubber will be significantly affected. There are a lot of raw rubber arriving at Hong Kong in China after the year, and the influence of production factors on the market is not clear. According to statistics, the existing stock of Tianjiao in China can maintain the consumption for three months, that is, China mainly relies on the existing stock consumption in the first quarter. From the perspective of prevention and control situation, the current domestic situation is positive, and all walks of life are back to work in an orderly manner; however, the foreign situation is very severe, and the Southeast Asian rubber producing countries have taken continuous measures in the near future.

Thailand: on April 16, Prime Minister Bayu said that he would propose to the cabinet to cancel the songganjie holiday from April 13 to 15; on April 16, the South Buri Prefecture in the northeast of Thailand announced the closure of the city; on March 26, Thailand launched the emergency law and enforced it for one month; on March 29, Thailand’s Phuket Prefecture announced that it would block the land and water routes in and out of Phuket except air routes from March 30 to April 30. At present, the main rubber production area in southern Thailand is not “closed city”, but the closure of Malaysia has a serious impact on the rubber transportation in Thailand. The exports of Thailand, Shatun and Dongli account for about 30% of the total exports of Thailand, of which the transfer exports through the ports of Malaysia account for about 40-50%. According to this proportion, the impact on Thailand’s exports will be about 40000 tons, while Thailand is urgently deploying the ports in Thailand Mouth. The price of rubber raw materials in Thailand fell, and the price of cup rubber was the lowest ever. Data shows that as of March 27, the glue price in Thailand’s Heai region was 35.5 baht / kg, with an average price of 38.93 baht / kg in March, down 2.73 baht / kg compared with February; the cup glue price was 27.5 baht / kg, with an average price of 30.97 baht / kg in March, down 2.79 baht / kg compared with February.

Malaysia: on March 16, the Prime Minister of Malaysia announced that he would take two weeks of stricter restrictions nationwide from March 18 to strengthen the prevention and control of public health incidents. On March 18, Penang Port of Malaysia announced that it would not accept the transit of Thai goods. Under the measures of “closing the city”, there is a great pressure on Malaysia’s domestic high storage. According to the data, in 2019, Malaysia’s natural rubber output will be about 650000 tons, accounting for 4.55% of global natural rubber output. In 2019, China’s imports from Malaysia will be 699000 tons, accounting for 13.28% of China’s total imports of natural rubber. In 2017-2019, China’s average monthly imports from Malaysia will be about 65000 tons, and Malaysia’s “closure” may directly cause China’s imports from Malaysia to shrink About 35000-35000 tons will be reduced, and “closure” will basically shut down domestic rubber processing plants in Malaysia, which will significantly reduce the import demand for Thailand’s concentrated latex and African rubber raw materials.

Indonesia: Indonesian President Joko called on religious leaders to help fight the epidemic, refused to seal the city but ordered extensive tests. At present, the impact of the country’s exports is small.

India: the government announced a three-week national blockade beginning on March 25. The sudden “closure” has brought no small shock to Indian society. The logistics has stagnated, production has stopped and supply chain has broken. India’s economy is inevitably impacted.

Inventory data: as of March 27, the warehouse receipt inventory of the previous stock exchange was at a low level in the same period, but the stock of imported rubber arrived at the port after the year accumulated. It is said that the stock of natural rubber at the spot end of Qingdao free trade zone was high and under great pressure. As of March 27, the natural rubber inventory of the previous period was 242467 tons, 1907 tons less than that of February 28, and the futures inventory was 236670 tons, 1730 tons less than that of February 28, 184750 tons less than that of the same period in 2019; the rubber inventory of the previous period was 73829 tons, 11917 tons more than that of February 28, and the futures inventory was 53545 tons, 9777 tons more than that of February 28. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao free trade zone is 753400 tons, including 188000 tons in free trade zone and 565400 tons in general trade.

Import and export volume: according to customs data, from January to February 2020, China imported 840200 tons of natural rubber (including latex and mixed rubber), an increase of 5.03% over the same period in 2019. From January to February 2020, China’s import standard is 223100 tons, an increase of 39600 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import tobacco flake rubber is 23300 tons, an increase of 0100 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import mixed rubber is 526900 tons, an increase of 21100 tons compared with the same period of 2019; import compound rubber is 8900 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons compared with the same period of 2019.

Demand factors: 1. Tire: in March, the domestic tire enterprises returned to work stably. At first, the situation of domestic epidemic control was good, and the enterprise mentality was positive. Later, the situation of foreign spread was rapid, which had a huge impact on downstream orders. The tire export was blocked, and the production situation of tire enterprises was not as expected. 2. Passenger cars: under special circumstances, the domestic demand for passenger cars has been greatly reduced. According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, in February, China’s production and sales of passenger vehicles completed 195000 and 224000 respectively, down 86.4% and 86.1% on a month on month basis, down 82.9% and 81.7% on a year-on-year basis, higher than the overall decline of automobile production and sales. Affected by the sharp decline in the market in February, the growth rate of production and sales of passenger vehicles also fell sharply from January to February, completing 1.631 million and 1.831 million respectively. According to the resumption of production in the first ten days of March mastered by CAAC, it is much better than that in February. In the last ten days of March, the situation of China’s automobile industry returning to work further improved. 3. Substitute rubber: at present, the international crude oil plummeted, which has a very direct impact on the commodities in its chemical industry chain. As a result, the cost of butadiene and synthetic rubber of natural rubber decreased due to the decline of crude oil. As part of synthetic rubber can replace natural rubber in the production of tire factories, the depressed natural rubber market has become even worse. 4. A number of foreign tire manufacturers closed their factories and the tire industry was seriously affected.

Industry policy: on March 17, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the announcement on increasing the export tax rebate rate of some products, saying that from March 20, 2020, the export tax rebate rate of 1084 products will be increased to 13%; the export tax rebate rate of 380 products will be increased to 9%. The export tax rebate rate of synthetic rubber increased from 10% to 13%, encouraging the export of synthetic rubber. However, under the influence of the bad macro environment and the serious contraction of downstream demand, the pressure on the synthetic rubber outlet is obvious.

3、 Future forecast

Natural rubber analysts of the business club believe that the special situation in the first quarter is even worse for the natural rubber market. Although China’s domestic situation is getting better and the situation of tire enterprises returning to work is getting better, the uncontrollable factors of foreign situation still lead to commodity level worries and bearish. This month, the price of Tianjiao fell from about a quarter of the highest market price to about a fifth, while Shanghai Jiao fell sharply in a row, ranking the lowest in a decade. Although the current output is limited and foreign supply is blocked, which is a good thing for Tianjiao market, under special circumstances, crude oil has fallen sharply and the global economy has slowed down, Tianjiao supply chain has been hit, downstream demand has been blocked and orders have been severely reduced, and the social inventory of domestic Tianjiao is high, and the production peak season of production enterprises after the Spring Festival is far away. In foreign countries, the situation of prevention and control is still tense, and the demand is not greatly improved, Tianjiao market is still worrying. Pay close attention to the impact of the progress of prevention and control situation on the commodity level, and expect the turning point to come as soon as possible.

Magnesium market trend

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of magnesium ingot as of 31 days was 13783.33 yuan / ton, 14550 yuan / ton compared with the average market price at the beginning of the month, with a monthly decrease of 5.27%.

According to the tracking information of the business agency, on March 31, the main quotation range of magnesium ingots in fugu (99.9%) was 13500-13700 yuan / ton; that of magnesium ingots in Ningxia (99.9%) was 13650-13750 yuan / ton; that of magnesium ingots in Taiyuan (99.9%) was 13750-13850 yuan / ton; that of magnesium ingots in Wenxi (99.9%) was 13850-14000 yuan / ton.

Poor demand and worrying export

At present, domestic demand is gradually picking up in March, and the rate of commencement and resumption of work in the downstream is increasing day by day. At present, it is basically back to the level before the Spring Festival. However, in the context of the general decline of bulk commodities, traders and downstream users have a low willingness to store goods and just need to purchase in small quantities. In the middle and last ten days of February, due to traffic problems, the main production areas are overstocked in shipment, and there are many futures deliveries in March. The mainstream manufacturers have a strong demand for new orders, and they have lowered the high prices in the early stage, and the market is back to normal.

In March, the international market was greatly affected, East Asia, Europe and the United States were affected by the new crown epidemic, and the export of magnesium ingots weakened. It is reported that in 2019, a total of 452000 tons of various magnesium products will be exported, accounting for 46.6% of magnesium output. Export worries affect domestic market sentiment.

Expected market outlook

The downstream demand is weak. At present, the price of magnesium ingot is back to normal. It is expected that it will run stably in the near future, and pay attention to the change of downstream purchase rhythm in the later stage.