1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market continued its downward trend from the previous month in May, with a brief rebound in the mid month market and a return to the downward channel in the late month. As of May 30th, the average price of PVC in China was 4597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75% for the whole month.
2、 Market analysis
In the first half of this month, the PVC spot market continued its downward trend from the previous month. In the middle of the month, due to favorable macroeconomic policy expectations, futures market prices began to rebound, and spot prices followed suit, but the rebound was only short-lived. In the second half of the month, the market once again fell into a downturn, and the downward trend continued until the end of the month.
Specifically, on the one hand, due to the weak performance of upstream crude oil and ethylene, coupled with the suppression of the futures market, the overall volatility and decline of the spot PVC market are the main factors. On the other hand, there is a certain pressure on supply and demand, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. On the supply and demand side, the operating rate remains high, production continues to increase, and there is a slight oversupply. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of May 30th, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4650-4720 yuan/ton.
In terms of upstream calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide has continued to decline since May. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price of calcium carbide has dropped by 2.44% since May. Overall, calcium carbide lacks positive guidance and has limited support. With the weak performance of downstream PVC market, the price of calcium carbide may not stabilize and improve in the near future.
3、 Future forecast
The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply and demand of PVC will continue to remain weak in the short term, mainly due to the sustained high operating rates of manufacturers and the high inventory levels of both enterprises and the market. In addition, after some maintenance is completed, production continues to rebound, and the summer season is approaching the rainy season, which may have a certain impact on seasonal demand. There is also an impact of policy uncertainty in the medium and long term. The PVC pressure is still relatively high in the later stage. It is expected that PVC prices will remain weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 12033 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it was 12333/ton, with a price increase of 2.49%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have seen some price increases this month, but most have remained stable. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification is between 10000-13500 yuan/ton. The demand for coconut shell activated carbon in traditional fields such as water treatment and air purification continues to grow. In addition, the number of newly built coconut shell carbonization plants in Indonesia, the Philippines and other places has surged, directly pushing up local raw material procurement prices.
In terms of imports and exports, China’s export volume of activated carbon in April was 32000 tons, an increase of 23% year-on-year and a decrease of 6% month on month. In terms of imports, the total amount of activated carbon imported domestically in April was 5147 tons. Southeast Asia, as the main source of coconut shells in the world, will face multiple natural disasters in 2024: Thailand will experience a reduction in coconut production due to drought and pest infestations, and some production areas in Indonesia will be affected by abnormal rainfall at the end of the rainy season, resulting in a decrease in coconut shell collection efficiency.
Prediction: With the combination of favorable factors in the domestic and international activated carbon markets, it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and strengthen in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated downward this week. From May 19th to 26th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 11337.50 yuan/ton to 10700 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.62% during the cycle. The domestic butadiene market fluctuated downward during this cycle, and the downstream synthetic rubber futures market weakened, resulting in weak market demand and a general weakening of the spot market mentality. In terms of supply and demand, the recent arrival of port cargo in East China has been good, and the overall market supply is relatively loose. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the butadiene market has been mainly weak this week. As of May 23, the self pickup price for container discharge in East China was between 10400-10500 yuan/ton.

Cost aspect: The crude oil market rose first and then fell during this cycle, with an overall upward trend. As of May 22, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $61.20 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $64.44 per barrel.
Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec is 10500 yuan/ton, which will be lowered by 600 yuan/ton this week.
On the demand side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of May 23, the market for butadiene rubber in the northwest region has slightly weakened. The futures price of butadiene rubber is weak and fluctuating, while the supply price of butadiene rubber is temporarily stable. Merchants are cautiously organizing their offers. At present, the mainstream prices for butadiene rubber in Sichuan, Dushanzi, and Lande are 12120~12250 yuan/ton.
Market forecast: Some butadiene plants in China have maintenance plans in the near future, and the market expects a slightly tight supply situation, which provides some support for the market mentality. However, the synthetic rubber market has been generally weak recently, and the overall demand for raw material butadiene procurement is weak. As the holiday approaches, there is some pre holiday stocking demand downstream, which may drive some upward space in the spot market, but overall it is relatively limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 19th to 23rd, the domestic ethanol price rose to 5374 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 2.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.60%. Domestic ethanol market prices are consolidating at a high level. Enterprises in the Northeast region continue to undergo rotation inspections, with low production rates and a clear willingness to raise prices. In the short term, without inventory pressure, prices may remain stable. The transaction situation in Henan region is still acceptable, with prices maintaining a high level of consolidation.

In terms of cost, the price of corn fluctuates. The arrival volume of deep processed corn in Shandong and Hebei is still acceptable, and some enterprises have seen a narrow reduction in corn prices. Henan’s deep processing enterprises have generally received goods and prices have increased. Before the wheat harvest, grassroots grain points were able to monetize their shipments, but overall supply pressure was not significant. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
There are unlikely to be significant favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.
On the demand side, from the demand side, the demand for Baijiu fluctuates little, and the downstream stock of chemical industry needs to be replenished. The short-term demand for ethanol has a moderate impact.
In the future, with stable supply and ongoing cost pressures, companies have a clear willingness to raise prices, and ethanol prices may remain stable. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of May 16th, the average price quoted by domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4220 yuan/ton, and the DMF market remained stable this week.
2、 Market analysis
On the demand side: downstream demand is poor, shipments are slow, prices are trending downward, and there is a focus on essential purchases. Inventory pressure still exists, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced, with insufficient motivation for price increases.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that in the short term, DMF prices will continue to operate steadily, with stability being the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on May 9th was 1073 yuan/ton, which was 0.31% lower than the average price of 1076 yuan/ton on May 5th.
2、 Market analysis
This week, there was a narrow adjustment in the domestic ammonium sulfate market price. The fluctuation of enterprise operating rate is not significant, and the main focus is on executing early orders. This week, the coking grade ammonium sulfate market remained stable, while the domestic grade ammonium sulfate saw a slight decline. At present, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened, and more caution is being exercised, with a focus on replenishing urgently needed goods. As of May 9th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 1040 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market trend of ammonium sulfate has slightly adjusted recently. At present, spot supply is tight and market demand is weakening. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in price.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 30th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1875 yuan/ton, which is 6.02% lower than the reference average price of 1995 yuan/ton on April 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
The overall price of urea in the domestic market is weak and declining this month. On the supply side, the urea market has sufficient supply and inventory pressure remains. On the demand side, the demand for spring plowing is gradually slowing down, and downstream procurement is cautious. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has declined, and the demand for urea procurement has weakened.
market conditions
As of April 30th, the factory price of urea in Shandong is around 1770-1850 yuan/ton, in Hebei it is around 1830 yuan/ton, in Henan it is around 1850 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning it is around 1830 yuan/ton.
According to the weekly K-bar chart from February 3, 2024 to April 21, 2025, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. Domestic urea experienced a significant decline in April, with the largest drop being 2.34% in the week of April 14th.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has recently stopped falling and risen. The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment before the holiday has increased, and market transactions have improved. It is expected that the domestic urea market will mainly experience price consolidation in the short term.

The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7150 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.81% compared to the price of 7433.33 yuan/ton on April 1st. At the end of March, multiple phthalic anhydride manufacturers stopped for maintenance, and the operating load of phthalic anhydride manufacturers decreased to about 50%. The supply of phthalic anhydride decreased, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply. With the slow recovery of equipment operation in phthalic anhydride enterprises in April, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. In the middle and late stages, downstream centralized procurement supported the demand for phthalic anhydride, and the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and stabilized. The price of Nafthalic anhydride is stabilizing strongly, supported by the cost of phthalic anhydride. The upward support for phthalic anhydride prices still exists, and the price of phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized.
Supply side: resumption of work and increased supply
The phthalic anhydride units that were shut down for maintenance in March resumed gradually in April, and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic phthalic anhydride industry increased. The capacity utilization rate of the naphthalene phthalic anhydride industry remained stable; The utilization rate of production capacity in the domestic phthalic anhydride industry is slowly recovering. The overall supply of phthalic anhydride has increased.
Demand side: DOP market is fluctuating and falling
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 29th, the DOP price was 8166.66 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.47% from the April 1st DOP price of 8288.75 yuan/ton. The operating rate of plasticizer DOP enterprises has dropped to about 50%, the production of plasticizer DOP has decreased, raw material prices have fallen, the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased, and the demand for cost reduction has weakened. As a result, plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell in April. The demand for phthalic anhydride is weak, and there is still downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of supply, phthalic anhydride manufacturers are slowly resuming production, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is increasing; In terms of demand, the operating load of DOP manufacturers is stabilizing at a low level, while the demand for phthalic anhydride is weak. In the future, with strong supply and weak demand, it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and stabilize.

At the beginning of April, due to the decline in raw material prices, the company’s profits rebounded, and the enthusiasm for production was high, with sufficient inventory. Overall, the operating rate of the domestic hydrogen fluoride market reached 59.2% in April, an increase of 4.1% compared to March, and the production of 175600 tons increased by 7.0% month on month. However, at the end of April, due to high prices and sufficient inventory in the downstream refrigerant industry, stocking was not active and mainly relied on on-demand procurement, resulting in a decline in market prices by the end of the month. At present, the bidding price for the hydrogen fluoride market in May has been implemented, with a delivery price of 11300-11400 yuan/ton in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, and a price reduction of 450-550 yuan/ton compared to April. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 28th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11883.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.99% compared to the beginning of this month (11933.33 yuan/ton).

On the raw material side, the market prices of fluorite and sulfuric acid both declined in April. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. However, as the temperature rises, northern enterprises gradually start operating, and the supply of fluorite enterprises on site has increased. In April, the fluorite market situation declined, and the cost pressure on anhydrous hydrogen fluoride production enterprises has eased to some extent. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of April 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3712.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.66% compared to the beginning of this month (3775.00 yuan/ton).
Demand side: Downstream refrigerants are in the traditional peak season, but due to high raw material prices, downstream procurement is more cautious and mainly based on demand. The market trading atmosphere is average, and some companies have reduced their raw material demand due to profit losses.
Market forecast: In April, the market price of raw material fluorite sulfuric acid will decline, which will relieve cost pressure for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride enterprises, increase profits, increase production enthusiasm, and ensure sufficient inventory. However, downstream refrigerant procurement is cautious, the trading atmosphere is quiet, and demand is weak. It is expected that the market price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will mainly decline in May, with a downward range of around 450-550 yuan/ton. More attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand situation.

In April, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell before consolidating

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 27th, the price of isooctanol was 7483.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.44% compared to the price of 7750 yuan/ton on April 1st. Plasticizer companies have low operating rates, with the operating rate of plasticizers dropping to 50%. The demand for isooctanol is weak, and the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and falling; Isooctanol enterprises have added new production capacity, and the self-sufficiency rate of isooctanol in China has increased to over 95%. The import of isooctanol has significantly decreased, and the overall market supply of isooctanol is sufficient.
Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuated and fell in April
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 27th, the DOP price was 8175.84 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.36% from the April 1st DOP price of 8288.75 yuan/ton. The operating rate of plasticizer DOP enterprises has dropped to about 50%, the production of plasticizer DOP has decreased, the demand for isooctanol is weak, the support for isooctanol demand has weakened, and the downward pressure of isooctanol still exists.
The self-sufficiency rate of isooctanol has increased, and the import volume has significantly decreased
Due to the new production capacity in Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang regions, China’s self-sufficiency rate of octanol will gradually increase from the second half of 2024, and by 2025, the self-sufficiency rate of octanol will reach over 95%. After China’s self-sufficiency rate of octanol increased, imported octanol was squeezed. Especially by 2025, the downstream will reduce the purchase of imported octanol and increase the domestic purchase of octanol, resulting in a significant decrease in the import quantity of octanol. The cumulative import volume of octanol in China from January to March was 45800 tons, a decrease of 40500 tons compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 46.93%. The self-sufficiency rate of isooctanol in China has increased, but the demand for isooctanol in China still exists.
Future expectations
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s octanol products, plasticizer companies have low operating rates, and downstream demand for isooctanol is weak; The addition of new production capacity and stable operation by isooctanol manufacturers have led to an increase in domestic isooctanol supply, resulting in an increase in domestic self-sufficiency rate and a decrease in imports. Overall, the isooctanol market supply is relatively stable. In the future, the supply of isooctanol is stable and demand is weak, and it is expected that the price of isooctanol will remain weak and consolidate at a low level.