From March 8 to December 2021, the market price of crude benzene increased slightly. The domestic ex factory price was 4607 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4695 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly rise of 1.91%.

In March 2023, Sinopec did not adjust the price of 6750 yuan / ton of pure benzene.

Coking enterprises started well this week. At present, they have sufficient profits and good production enthusiasm. Affected by the wide fluctuation trend of crude oil this week, the price of pure benzene fluctuated mainly, the price fluctuated frequently, and the market enthusiasm was poor. This week, the crude benzol auction situation, bidding price increased slightly.

The overall operation rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is stable at about 70%, with a slight increase in overall operation. Most of the units are in normal operation, and the demand for crude benzene is relatively stable. At present, the price difference of crude benzene hydrogenation benzene is more reasonable, the profits of hydrogenation benzene enterprises are improved, and the production and sales of enterprises are active.

In the future, the business association thinks that the price difference between crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene is reasonable, and the profit margin of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is better than that in the earlier stage. It is expected that the demand for crude benzene in the future is fair, and the price of crude benzene will fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the acetic anhydride market continued to rise in March, and the price of acetic anhydride continued to rise. As of March 12, the price of acetic anhydride was 9550.00 yuan / ton, up 2.69% compared with 9300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (March 1). The cost of acetic anhydride continued to rise, and the market of acetic anhydride remained high.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, in March, the price of acetic acid rose and maintained stability. In March, Hualu Hengsheng acetic acid equipment resumed operation, domestic acetic acid raw material supply increased, acetic acid rising momentum weakened, acetic acid market high firm, acetic anhydride cost high firm, acetic anhydride market rising momentum still exists.

Methanol price trend

From the methanol price trend chart, we can see that in March, the methanol price first stabilized and then rose, the methanol price rose steadily, the acetic anhydride cost rose steadily, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise increased.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that the acetic acid price rose in March and then stabilized strongly, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the acetic anhydride market stabilized, but the methanol price rose steadily in March, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the rising power of acetic anhydride increased. Overall, in March, the raw material prices of acetic anhydride fluctuated, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the market of acetic anhydride remained high. In the future, with the price of acetic acid and methanol stabilized, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride stabilized, and the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will stabilize strongly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency’s block data list, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on March 5 was 5216.67 yuan / ton, up 0.97% from the beginning of the week, up 3.3% on a month on month basis, and down 2.8% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the phosphoric acid market continued to rise steadily. Recently, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus rose slightly. The price of phosphoric acid continued to rise cautiously. Compared with before the Spring Festival, the price increased by about 100-300 yuan / ton, and the low-end price gradually moved closer to the high-end price. At present, the market is gradually warming up, the downstream demand has slightly improved after the festival, the wait-and-see attitude has not decreased, and the actual transaction is tepid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of March 5, the quotation in Sichuan was 4900-5550 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was 5100 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was 4800 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was 5100-5400 yuan / ton, and that in Tianjin was 5900 yuan / ton. The prices in various regions rose steadily.

Regional ﹣ product specification ﹣ date ﹣ price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan Province: 85% industrial grade ﹣ 4900-5550

Hubei Province: 85% industrial grade 5100-5400

Yunnan Province: 85% industrial grade 5100

In Beijing and Tianjin, the content of ﹣ 4 ﹣ is 85% industrial grade ﹣ 4800-5900 on March 5

In terms of raw materials, the price of yellow phosphorus rose this week, and the spot of yellow phosphorus was relatively tight. The main manufacturers made orders in the early stage, and the downstream purchased properly. On March 5, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 17600.00, up 2.03% compared with March 1 (17250.00). At present, the spot of yellow phosphorus is tight, and the downstream is suitable for purchasing. In addition, the downstream pesticide market is up, boosting the price of yellow phosphorus. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will rise steadily in the short term.

The domestic phosphate ore market maintained a temporary stable operation. On March 5, the reference price of phosphate rock was 423.33, which was the same as that on March 1. In March, with the arrival of spring ploughing season, the demand of phosphate fertilizer industry in the downstream of domestic phosphate ore will continue to increase, which will give support to the phosphate ore industry. Therefore, the phosphate ore Data Engineer of business society believes that the phosphate ore market will continue to operate at a high and stable level in the short term, and with the increase of downstream demand, the market price will continue to explore.

On the downstream side, the current market of ammonium phosphate is very good, and the price has risen to a new high in this year. With the rising price of raw materials, the domestic downstream demand is gradually increasing due to the approach of spring ploughing, and the foreign export demand is increasing. Under the favorable conditions, the price of ammonium phosphate is running at a high level. However, after the surge, the downstream companies were cautious and wait-and-see. Ammonium phosphate enterprises still stopped orders and reported too much. There was no sales pressure for the time being. They mainly issued orders in the early stage, and they were in strong price support mood. There is no obvious negative signal in the market, it is expected that ammonium phosphate will rise more likely, and the market will be strong in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 2 kinds of commodities rising or falling to 0 in the price fluctuation list of phosphorus chemical industry in the 09th week of 2021 (3.1-3.5). The main commodities that rose were yellow phosphorus (2.03%), monoammonium phosphate (2.01%) and phosphoric acid (0.97%); both rose or fell by 1% this week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of business society, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus has not risen much recently, and the phosphoric acid market continues to rise cautiously, which is significantly higher than that before the Spring Festival. The low-end price gradually moves closer to the high-end price, and the downstream demand slightly improves. The wait-and-see attitude remains unchanged. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to follow the fluctuation of the cost side in the short term, with rising expectations.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 10000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 9933 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price drop of 0.67%.

The domestic price of activated carbon has been slightly reduced. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton; the domestic downstream activated carbon is sold on demand, and the market is lack of good news support, and the downstream is mainly on the wait-and-see.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: the downstream demand of activated carbon market is not good, and the trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that the short-term market of activated carbon will be dominated by weak operation.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, affected by the rise of crude oil, the quotation of o-benzene jumped three times after the festival, the external price rose, and the domestic o-benzene market rose. As of February 26, Sinopec’s price of o-xylene was 6500.00 yuan / ton, up 1500 yuan / ton or 30.00% from 5000 yuan / ton before the festival (February 10).

Crude oil prices soared

It can be seen from the crude oil price trend chart that the crude oil price of WTI rose sharply in February, up by 21.5%, which led to the price rise of downstream industry chain. The market of o-benzene industry chain is rising, and the power of o-benzene rising is greater.

Mixed xylene market trend

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene rose sharply in February, with an increase of 26%; after the festival, the price of mixed xylene rose sharply, with an increase of 17%. The price of mixed xylene increased, the cost of o-xylene increased, the pressure of o-xylene increased, and the support of o-xylene increased.

Future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst of business society, believes that the soaring crude oil market in February has stimulated the price of downstream industry chain to rise sharply, the price of mixed xylene has followed the rise, the cost of o-xylene has remained high, and the power of o-xylene rise is sufficient. With the continuous promotion of global vaccine, the expected impact of the epidemic is weakened, clearing the obstacles for rapid economic recovery; under the stimulus policy of economic recovery and loose monetary policy of the United States, the market inflation expectation is increased, the commodity expectation enters the rising cycle, and the crude oil bears the brunt in the macroeconomic environment and rises sharply; the rise of crude oil price drives the price of downstream mixed xylene to rise sharply, and the price of o-xylene to rise sharply The cost of toluene rose sharply, and the price of o-benzene jumped three times after the festival. In the future, the crude oil market is strong, the rising power of crude oil price still exists, the cost of o-xylene remains high, and the pressure of o-xylene decline is weak. It is expected that the price of o-xylene will be strong and stable in the future.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 10000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10033 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with an increase of 0.33%.

The price of domestic activated carbon is rising. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton. The downstream of domestic activated carbon is delivered on demand, and the atmosphere of on-site delivery is active. Most of the products are delivered according to orders, while the downstream is mainly on the wait-and-see.

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: the market of activated carbon is normal, the market lacks the support of good news, and the short-term price of activated carbon may be dominated by shock finishing.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market in February was temporarily stable. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year increase of 21.85%.

In February, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market was mainly stable. The equipment of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was running stably. Recently, the supply of goods on the site was tight, the goods on the site were in general, and the price trend on the site was temporarily stable. In the near future, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is stable. There are still more production stoppages in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start normal, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2800-2900 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

In February, the price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid dropped slightly. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2000 yuan / ton, down 0.83% from 2016.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Shanxi Xinghua quoted 1900 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2000 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2200 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic nitric acid plant has been running stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the market is general. In January, the price trend of nitric acid market dropped slightly, and the price of raw nitric acid dropped, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable.

In February, the price of domestic liquid ammonia in the upstream market was slightly lower than that in the beginning of the month, which was 3350 yuan / ton by the end of the month, down 0.99% from 3383.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic liquid ammonia market has slightly recovered, and the main decline stage is mainly concentrated in the first ten days of this month. The main reason is that the downstream manufacturers have holidays and the purchase is shelved, which brings great pressure on the supply in the northern region. With the resumption of production by some manufacturers in the latter half of the year, the amount of ammonia increased and the price gradually recovered. From the downstream perspective, in the off-season of agricultural fertilizer use, the terminal does not take delivery of the goods, there is no market in many places, the market price of liquid ammonia drops slightly, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable in February.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal, but the market price of raw materials has a certain supporting role. The ammonium nitrate analysts of the business community think that the market price of ammonium nitrate will fluctuate in the later stage.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the domestic PP market is strong after the festival, and the spot price of each brand has increased significantly. As of February 24, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) was about 9383.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.49% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

PP upstream propylene domestic market also ushered in a surge mode after the Spring Festival. The price before the festival was 7060 yuan / ton, which was 8527.27 yuan / ton as of February 23, with an increase of 18.50% in seven days. Since the resumption of work on the 18th, the price of propylene has gone up continuously, changing the downward trend of last month’s Propylene price. Now the factory stock is less, the shipment situation is more popular. In general, due to the shutdown of some units in the United States and Japan due to natural disasters, the propylene production loss is large, and the short-term recovery capacity of the units is limited. At present, the domestic inventory is low, the downstream operation rate is ideal, and the demand is strong. It is expected that the propylene price will rise again in the future.

At present, the propylene market is rising rapidly, PP is strongly supported by the cost side, and the recent increase is relatively large. At the time of commencement after the festival, there was a negative effect of capacity expansion and accumulation in the site. Donghua energy Ningbo phase II project began to put into operation, and it is reported that the propylene product production line was running smoothly. Previously, the business association had predicted that the accumulation of PP inventory prices in the two oil and petrochemical companies would gradually begin during the Spring Festival. In the near future, the PP material, grain and oil inventory range was 850000-900000 tons, and the increase of main ports in the inventory was less than expected.

But judging from the results, these two bad news failed to dominate the market. The first reason is that the price of PP is weak inside and outside. The cold disaster in the United States resulted in the reduction of crude oil production and the rise of crude oil price. In addition, many chemical enterprises in the disaster stricken areas of the United States stopped production, and the devices were frequently overhauled. Similarly, affected by the earthquake in Japan, the plant was also shut down on a large scale, and the restart time was uncertain. Worried about the shortage of chemical products, the industry’s attitude towards the price of bulk goods increased, and the external market PP generally rose sharply, boosting the domestic spot price. Secondly, affected by the local new year’s advocacy, the downstream industry has resumed work rapidly this year, and the demand for PP has warmed up rapidly. The northeast region even has a certain degree of tight supply, and the accumulated stock has declined during the Spring Festival. It is reported that on the 23rd, the two oil stocks decreased by 20000 tons to 890000 tons. But at present, the price region has been at a high level, and the downstream purchasing operation is gradually cautious.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business community, as of February 24, the mainstream offers of domestic producers and traders Z30S (fiber) also rose sharply, with the price at about 9383.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.90% compared with the average price level before the festival. In terms of production scheduling, the proportion of domestic fiber PP production scheduling is about 13%, which increases slightly after the festival, and the overall production scheduling is stable. After the festival, the logistics and transportation gradually recovered, and the supply of domestic fiber materials was sufficient. In terms of price, it is also affected by the strong external market. In addition to the inflation expectation of the current macro market, it is expected that the market trend of fiber PP will keep pace with the drawing material.

PP meltblown material after the trend of shock based, recently rose. As of February 24, the average quotation of pph-y1500 sample enterprises monitored by business society was 11300 yuan / ton. At present, the overseas epidemic situation is still very complex, and the number of confirmed cases has further expanded. The implementation of masks in many countries has increased the demand of overseas melt blown PP, and the increase of domestic orders has raised the price of melt blown PP to a certain extent. However, the domestic demand for epidemic prevention materials remained stable. By the 22nd, the high-risk areas of the epidemic had been cleared, and there were no new cases for more than 14 consecutive days. The domestic epidemic prevention situation is stable and good, and the supply of masks and other epidemic prevention materials is abundant. The surplus of suppliers in the melt blown fabric manufacturing market has not improved, and the profit is still not ideal. The melt blown material up market, business community that the same as other brands of PP products, is a positive cost side and the common impact of tightening overseas supply. It is expected that the market trend of melt blown PP will be stable.

Future forecast

Business community PP analysts believe: after the Spring Festival, the domestic PP spot market is strong. The price of upstream propylene rose rapidly, which strongly supported the cost side of PP. The accumulation of polypropylene oil and social inventory was less than expected, and the overseas supply was continuously tightened due to complex factors. The downstream resumed work faster, the operating rate increased, and the resistance to the current high supply increased. It is expected that there will be no supply pressure on PP in the short term, but some businesses have begun to reduce prices and arbitrage, and it is expected that PP may usher in the adjustment market in the near future. In the medium term, the fundamentals are stable, and the PP market is in a good direction.

The cold wave hit southern cities in the United States, crude oil production was affected, oil prices rose, OPEC + disagreed on whether to continue to reduce production significantly, and the OPEC + meeting will be held in early March, there is a certain degree of uncertainty on the supply side. The cold wave in the United States caused the closure of refinery equipment and restricted vaccine distribution, which also affected the demand for crude oil. Considering that the cold wave has a relatively short-term impact on the supply and demand of crude oil and has a certain offset, the crude oil market still maintains a tight balance in the early stage.

There are some uncertainties in the supply side

Affected by the cold wave, the U.S. crude oil supply fell sharply, pushing up the early oil price. Due to the cold wave hitting southern cities in the United States, Texas was forced to turn off power for the first time in 10 years. The energy market fell into chaos, and all natural gas, nuclear, wind and coal-fired power plants in Texas went offline.

Western oil company of the United States suspended crude oil production in the Permian Basin; chevron closed crude oil production in the Permian Basin. The Permian crude oil production in the United States decreased by 80%, and the crude oil production in the United States decreased by more than 40%, reaching 4 million barrels / day. Recently, the temperature has gradually warmed up. The state electric power reliability Commission (ercot) said that there is enough power generation to restore the normal operation of the power grid, and it will cancel the level I energy alarm. Therefore, the shutdown of crude oil in the United States is relatively short and the impact is relatively limited. As the temperature rises and the power supply returns to normal, the crude oil supply in the United States will gradually return to the previous level. In addition, the United States rejoins the Paris Agreement, and the “Green New Deal” advocated by Biden during his election campaign is gradually being implemented, including stopping federal land leasing and oil and gas drilling, reducing fossil fuel subsidies and other measures. The recovery of shale oil production in the United States is expected to be relatively slow.

Oil price goes up, OPEC + has insufficient power to reduce production, so we should pay attention to the meeting. In view of the fact that the current oil price returns to the fluctuation range at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, and Saudi Arabia voluntarily reduces production by 1 million barrels per day from February to March, if the oil price goes up, Saudi Arabia can not rule out the possibility of terminating unilateral large-scale production reduction. In addition, at the beginning of March, OPEC + will hold a meeting to discuss the adjustment of crude oil production in April, and the upward trend of oil price leads to the weak power of OPEC + to reduce production. Iran is not a member of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee (jmmc), but will attend the meeting on March 3. If Iran’s crude oil exports return to the market, OPEC + will readjust the quota allocation. Otherwise, Iran’s production increase will greatly offset OPEC +’s production reduction effect. Iran’s return to the crude oil market also involves the US’s return to the Iran nuclear agreement. It is expected that the sanctions will not be lifted in the short term. Combined with the decline of crude oil production in Libya and Nigeria due to domestic problems, OPEC + is expected to relax production reduction in April, and the specific increase amount needs to be further tracked.

Demand for crude oil is recovering

The cold wave in the United States also affects the demand for oil refining. After the cold wave, the demand for crude oil will gradually recover. Affected by the cold wave, large US refiner motiva closed Port Arthur plant, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company closed equipment, Marathon Oil Company’s Galveston Bay refinery closed, total’s Port Arthur refinery closed coking unit and crude oil distillation unit (CDU), Valero energy closed Port Arthur refinery, ExxonMobil closed Baytown and Beaumont refinery Facilities: Valero Memphis refinery in Tennessee, Chevron, Pasadena and Lyondell refinery in Houston were closed.

After the cold wave, the Oilpatch oil service in Texas resumed operation, Valero energy restarted the Corpuschristi refinery in Texas, and ExxonMobil restarted the Beaumont refinery in Texas. However, most of the affected refineries need two and a half to three weeks to resume operation, and some refineries may advance the spring inspection of about 500000 barrels per day. In addition, affected by the cold wave, vaccine distribution is limited. With the end of the cold wave, vaccine continues to be promoted and popularized, travel increases, and crude oil demand gradually recovers.

Crude oil continues to go to the reservoir

The direction of crude oil destocking remains unchanged. In the week ending February 12, US commercial crude oil inventories were 461.757 million barrels, down 7.257 million barrels on a month on month basis, returning to the five-year average; Cushing crude oil inventories were 45.016 million barrels, down 3.028 million barrels on a month on month basis. Affected by the cold wave, on the one hand, the supply decreased and the inventory declined; on the other hand, the refinery shut down the equipment, making the crude oil accumulation. With the end of the cold wave, if the supply side does not change much, the crude oil market will continue to maintain a tight balance, and the crude oil will continue to be destocked.

The US crude oil supply will gradually recover after the cold wave recedes. Whether Saudi Arabia’s unilateral production reduction will be terminated or not, and whether OPEC + will significantly increase production at the March meeting, all make the crude oil supply uncertain. Moreover, the cold wave not only affected the supply, but also led to the closure of refinery equipment, restricted vaccine distribution and the decline of crude oil demand. At present, supply and demand are still in a tight balance, and crude oil will continue to go to the reservoir, paying attention to the results of the OPEC + meeting.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde at the beginning of this week was 6500 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 6433 yuan / ton, down 1.03%.

2、 Market analysis

On February 18, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of paraformaldehyde, offered 6000 yuan / ton of paraformaldehyde (96) including tax, which was the same as that of the year before. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory price of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax is 6300 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that of a year ago. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 7000 yuan / ton, the price is the same as before. After the Spring Festival, enterprises have resumed work one after another, the market wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the enterprise quotation is relatively stable. The price of POM was higher before the festival, but some enterprises reduced their price after the festival.

The upstream raw material methanol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, recently the domestic methanol market has recovered in a narrow range. As of February 20, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2267 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 3.92% and a year-on-year increase of 14.09%.

3、 Future forecast

Business community polyoxymethylene analysts expect that after the festival polyoxymethylene stable operation in the short term.