First, the price trend
Recently, the butadiene market has been ranked high. Business community monitoring showed that as of August 7, the price of butadiene was 12,910 yuan / ton, and the price rose by 61.13%.
Second, the analysis of influencing factors
Products: Domestic butadiene continues to rank high, and the bidding price of northern big manufacturers continues to rise. Supporting traders’ quotations is firm, and low-cost sources are hard to find in the market. Shandong butadiene market maintained a high level of consolidation, the auction price of the northern big manufacturers continued to rise to support the market mentality, the market low-cost supply is less, traders refer to the enterprise supply price offer. The market atmosphere of butadiene in East China is generally high, and it is boosted by the bidding situation of northern manufacturers. The offer of traders is firm, and the downstream few just need to close. Asian butadiene closing price, FOB Korea average price of 1700 US dollars / ton; CFR China average price of 1660 US dollars / ton.
Industry chain: downstream, styrene-butadiene rubber: butadiene outer disk has closed higher, and natural rubber also rebounded slightly, but due to poor demand, the operators are more cautious, the domestic styrene-butadiene rubber market maintains a volatile pattern, trading a small amount and There are upside down in some areas. Butadiene rubber, the domestic butadiene rubber market volatility. Although the price of butadiene rose and the supplier raised the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber, the market players reacted dullly. The buyer’s inquiry atmosphere was not good, and only small buyers purchased small orders. SBS: The domestic SBS market oil gel is narrowly arranged, and the dry rubber road is partially upgraded. In terms of oil and rubber: Under the influence of the Sino-US trade war on the 20% tariff on SBS oil, the industry’s mentality is sluggish, merchants are slow to ship, and downstream shoe companies are weak. Dry rubber road change: supported by cost, the price of “two barrels of oil” pushed up by 200-300 yuan/ton, and the merchants maintained the profit of 500 yuan/ton and above under the influence of rare supply. In the short term, the cost side is strongly supported, and the synthetic rubber is pushed up, which is good for the SBS industry mentality.
Third, the market outlook
On the positive side, the supply of butadiene market is still tight, the bidding price of the big northern manufacturers is higher, and the operating load of some private enterprises is low. On the negative side, downstream buyers have limited ability to accept high prices, the price of US dollars is close to that of RMB, the export arbitrage window is closed, and the downstream synthetic rubber industry is in a downturn. Butadiene analysts of the business community expect that butadiene will maintain a small consolidation in the short term, paying attention to market transactions and price adjustments of mainstream export manufacturers.