As of August 21st, the reference average price of urea market in Shandong Province, China is 1720 yuan/ton, which is 1.03% higher than the reference average price of 1702 yuan/ton on August 17th.
2、 Market analysis
market situation
This week, the domestic urea market has shown a strong upward trend. This week, the urea futures market has strengthened, driving up the spot market. At present, the urea market has sufficient supply, but the market demand is still weak. India’s latest bidding volume exceeds expectations, with support for exports. As of August 21st, the urea market prices in Shandong are around 1690-1720 yuan/ton, Hebei is around 1700-1740 yuan/ton, Henan is around 1690-1730 yuan/ton, Hubei is around 1700-1740 yuan/ton, and Liaoning is around 1750-1790 yuan/ton.
supply and demand situation
In terms of supply, the current operating rate of urea enterprises is around 90%, and daily production remains high. In terms of demand, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises urgently need to purchase, while industrial and agricultural demand remains flat, with limited new market transactions.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the domestic urea market trend has been strong and upward recently. At present, the supply and demand in the urea market have not improved, and there is still an oversupply. Suggest paying attention to policy trends and changes in supply and demand. It is expected that the domestic urea market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation in the short term.

On August 14th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei region was 4416 yuan/ton, and on August 10th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei region was 4450 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate fell by 0.75%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the market for ammonium phosphate was mainly weakly consolidated, with a slight decrease in prices. The price of raw material sulfur has stabilized at a high level, and there is still support on the cost side. The downstream compound fertilizer procurement intention is weak, the market demand is weak, and there is mainly a need for replenishment, resulting in limited new orders in the market. As of August 14th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 4350-4450 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 4400-4500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 4300-4350 yuan/ton.
In terms of raw material sulfur. This week, sulfur prices have adjusted narrowly, and market supply and demand have remained stable. Downstream demand for replenishment is urgent, and market trading is cautious with a strong wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market price will mainly operate at a high consolidation level.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the market trend of ammonium phosphate has been narrowly declining recently. Raw materials are running at a high level, and costs are still supported, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. It is expected that the short-term market for ammonium phosphate will mainly experience a narrow consolidation and operation.

The overall price of baking soda has fallen this month, with an average market price of 1217.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1205 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.83%. On July 30th, the baking soda index was 79.98, a decrease of 0.33 points from yesterday, a decrease of 66.09% from the cycle high of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 2.34% from the lowest point of 78.15 points on January 15th, 2026. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
The product analysis system shows that baking soda is operating in a weak consolidation trend, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is operating steadily, with a factory price of 1100-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1150-1250 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data, the price of soda ash decreased in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1130 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65% and a decrease of 15.51% compared to the same period last year.
Analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak and consolidating recently. The upstream raw material soda ash has been consolidating overall in April, while downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently. The demand enthusiasm is average, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

As of the close on July 17th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract for methanol futures, 2609, opened at 2645 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2662 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2613 yuan/ton. It closed at 2630 yuan/ton at the end of the trading day, a decrease of 5% or 0.19% compared to the previous trading day’s settlement. Transaction volume 846093, open position 654879, daily increase position -10255.
On the cost side, coal prices are running relatively strong, supply is relatively stable, overall demand is still weak, and the boost to methanol is average. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, although olefins have undergone maintenance, they have overall rebounded, while traditional downstream production has declined. The main production areas have seen an increase in olefin extraction, and the pace of delivery has remained stable. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, the loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, resulting in a decrease in production and a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 16th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $420-422 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 130-132 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 409-411 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, methanol spot supply is still sufficient. Currently, downstream maintenance companies in mainland China are resuming work one after another, and demand is gradually increasing, driving a lively trading atmosphere in the market. In addition, freight prices have risen. Overall, analysts predict that the domestic methanol spot market may consolidate at a high level.

The pattern of loose excess supply continues to intensify, and the market is weak. With the concentrated restart of maintenance facilities in the phenol ketone industry and the continuous release of new production capacity, the overall operating rate of bisphenol A in China remains high, and the market supply is sufficient. At the same time, the supply of imported goods has been replenished, and the market circulation of goods has further increased. The inventory pressure in the industry continues to rise, and manufacturers actively offer discounts to reduce inventory, intensifying market price competition.
The weak terminal demand is the core factor dragging down the market. In June, the downstream epoxy resin and PC industries entered the traditional consumption off-season, and the demand for terminal fields such as building materials, coatings, and wind power continued to be sluggish, with insufficient new order growth. Downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventory and only make small purchases as needed, without centralized stocking operations. The market demand support is seriously insufficient, and the problem of supply-demand mismatch is becoming increasingly prominent.
Overall, the bisphenol A market continued to decline in June due to the triple negative pressure of cost, supply, and demand. The core contradiction of short-term industry oversupply is difficult to alleviate, and inventory pressure still exists. It is expected that the bisphenol A market will continue its weak and volatile trend in the short term, and prices are likely to remain low.

According to data, the price of acetic anhydride fell in June. As of June 29th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5312.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the June 1st price of 5350 yuan/ton.
The acetic anhydride market experienced a weak downward trend in June. On the supply side, the maintenance equipment for acetic anhydride has been restored, and the market supply is sufficient. However, downstream demand is in the off-season, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for purchasing is not high. The market trading atmosphere is weak. Although the price of raw material acetic acid has rebounded, the boost to the acetic anhydride market is average. The cost pressure has increased, and the demand for enterprise shipments has increased. Some manufacturers have lowered their inventory prices, resulting in a downward trend in the acetic anhydride market this month.
The acetic acid market fell first and then rose in June
In June, the price of acetic acid increased from 3023.33 yuan/ton to 3056.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 1.10%. On the supply side, the main factories in Shandong region have temporarily stopped production, coupled with the current acetic acid operating rate of less than 80%, the price of acetic acid has stopped falling and rebounded. The overall inventory pressure of acetic acid enterprises is not high during the month, and downstream procurement needs are following up. The acetic acid market is stable and strong. The rise in raw material prices has squeezed downstream acetic anhydride profits.
Future prospects
Business analysts believe that the raw material acetic acid is running steadily, with average cost support. The acetic anhydride market has strong supply and weak demand, and the confidence of industry players is insufficient. Short term prices are still weak, and the fundamentals of the acetic anhydride market are not good. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will be weak and consolidate in the future. The price should pay attention to changes in upstream prices and downstream follow-up.

The average market price of baking soda at the beginning of the week was 1222.5 yuan/ton, and the average market price of baking soda over the weekend was 1220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% and a 4.09% decrease compared to the same period last year. On June 25th, the Business Society Baking Soda Index was 81.14, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 65.60% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (November 10, 2021), and an increase of 3.83% from the lowest point of 78.15 points on January 15, 2026. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)
2、 Market analysis
According to the product analysis system, the baking soda market is running steadily, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is running weakly, with a factory price of 1080-1200 yuan/ton in Henan region and 1100-1200 yuan/ton in Shandong region. Due to downstream demand based procurement, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1166 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 1156 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% and 9.97% compared to the same period last year. Downstream buyers tend to purchase on demand.
Analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has also been consolidating recently. However, downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, and demand enthusiasm for baking soda is still acceptable. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly consolidate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

fundamental analysis
Cost aspect: Dual raw materials support the bottom, leading the market to stabilize first and then rise
The centralized maintenance of the equipment led to a 3.10% increase in epoxy propane, while the elasticity of methanol’s increase was much greater than that of epoxy propane. The highest increase in the middle of the month was close to 9%, and after a temporary surge, it slightly fell back, but overall it maintained a significant increase; The synchronous and significant upward movement of the two major raw materials has formed a dual bottom support on the cost side, which is the core bullish factor for the rebound of dimethyl carbonate this month; However, downstream absorption is insufficient, and the price increase of dimethyl carbonate is significantly weaker than that of raw materials, resulting in only a slight narrowing of industry losses.
Supply side: Local tightness, slight decline in production
Some small and medium-sized devices have reduced their load and undergone short-term shutdown maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease in the industry average operating rate; Several medium-sized facilities in the main production area of Shandong take turns for maintenance, resulting in a contraction of regional spot circulation and some traders being reluctant to sell and raise prices; Large integrated chemical plants maintain full production, with only a temporary contraction in overall supply and no sustained logic of significant production cuts. The factory has medium inventory, and the manufacturer mainly arranges inventory according to demand, without high accumulation pressure.
Demand side: Strong demand support, insufficient increment, no centralized replenishment
The production capacity utilization rate of polycarbonate PC industry remains high, but the growth of orders for terminal home appliances and automotive lightweighting has slowed down. The procurement strategy of enterprises is extremely cautious, and they buy in small quantities at low prices. The willingness to purchase in bulk is weak, which has limited impact on the driving force of dimethyl carbonate. In terms of traditional solvents for coatings, adhesives, and pesticides, the demand for environmentally friendly alternatives remains stable without seasonal outbreaks; The off-season characteristics of traditional chemical industry are evident, with stable downstream production and only providing basic and essential support, without incremental elasticity.
Market forecast:
The cost of raw materials such as epichlorohydrin and methanol remains high, and it is difficult to restart the maintenance equipment in the short term, resulting in high prices from manufacturers; Downstream demand follows up on dips and inventory continues to be moderately reduced; However, there is no centralized replenishment in the downstream, and the overall demand increment is limited. The pattern of overcapacity in the entire industry has not been reversed; High level trading is weak, and gains are prone to quickly sell back; Short term low volatility of dimethyl carbonate is expected to be slightly stronger, making it difficult to see a trend of significant increase

In the production cost of polyaluminum chloride, raw materials such as alumina and hydrochloric acid account for over 60%, and the upstream electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated downward in May; The hydrochloric acid market has experienced periodic price increases due to adjustments in the operating rate of chlor alkali enterprises, which has provided cost support for the overall price of polyaluminum chloride. However, the pressure of oversupply caused by the concentrated production of new alumina production capacity has suppressed the potential for raw material price increases.
May is the traditional off-season for the water treatment industry, with low operating rates for municipal and industrial sewage treatment projects. In addition, downstream industries such as chemical and paper production are generally operating steadily, and the procurement of polyaluminum chloride is mainly based on urgent needs replenishment. The market lacks centralized procurement or unexpected incremental demand, making it difficult to form a pulling force for price increases.
Market forecast: Upstream raw material costs will still be supported in June, and environmental control measures will continue to constrain the production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises, making it difficult for the supply side to see significant increases; As June enters the traditional peak season of the water treatment industry, there is an expectation of marginal improvement in downstream demand, which will provide some support for prices. The continuous release of new alumina production capacity limits the room for rising raw material costs; The pattern of overcapacity in the industry has not fundamentally changed, market competition still exists, and the motivation for enterprises to actively raise prices is insufficient. It is expected that polyaluminum chloride will continue to operate steadily in June.

This week, the aniline market has accelerated its decline. On May 25th, the price of aniline in the market was 11062 yuan/ton, and on May 29th, it was 10262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.23% during the week and an increase of 42.04% compared to the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and Review
This week, the aniline market experienced a wide decline, with two reductions of 400 yuan/ton each. On the one hand, due to the decline in raw material prices, cost support has weakened; On the other hand, due to the influence of its own supply and demand, the demand performance is sluggish, prices are falling, and downstream companies are entering the market at a low price, which is bearish for the future.
Cost aspect: Recently, the pure benzene market has been affected by the decline in crude oil prices, and the market mentality is weak. In addition, downstream companies are still losing money, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high. On May 29th, the listing price of pure benzene sold by Sinopec Chemical was lowered by 300 yuan/ton today, and the Yangtze River resources of the East China, North China, South China, and Central China branches were all executed at 7700 yuan/ton. The price reduction of mainstream refineries has driven down the price of pure benzene again.
3、 Future expectations
The current market demand for aniline is flat, and the prices of raw materials have been lowered again. In addition, with weak demand, it is expected that the price of aniline will continue to decline.